Phillies Acquire Cliff Lee, But Did They Miss Out on Halladay?

The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t get Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay, but acquiring Cleveland Indians pitcher Cliff Lee was the perfect Plan B.

Sure, Roy Halladay was the big fish out there and the Phillies didn’t get him, but in no way should fans of the team be disappointed about “settling” for Lee. Lee was last year’s American League Cy Young winner, and he has been the best pitcher in the majors over the past 18 months. Transfering that from a superior league to the woeful NL East, and what you have is an easy finish for the Phils and a markedly better chance of winning the NL Pennant in October.

One of the most important aspects of this trade is that the Phillies really didn’t give anything up to acquire Lee. They didn’t have to give up J.A. Happ, who may be the Phils best pitcher so far this season, nor did they have to give up Kyle Drabek or any of their other top prospects. In fact, the Phils gave up so little in this trade, that they actually still have the pieces to go out and acquire Roy Halladay in a trade if they really want to solidify their starting rotation.

Imagine that: Halladay, Lee and Hamels? That would officially be not just the best starting rotation in the majors, but perhaps the best starting rotation of the decade. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Certainly the Phillies come out on top in this trade and they have probably moved ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers as the favorites to win the National League and go to the World Series. However, what everyone will be analyzing is whether the Phillies are missing out by not getting Halladay.

Thus, let’s tackle that very concern. Is Halladay a better pitcher than Cliff Lee?

The first thing everybody is going to look at is the ERA of each player. Halladay’s ERA this season is 2.62, while Lee’s is just 3.14. A season ago, Lee’s ERA was 2.54, while Halladay had an ERA of 2.78. Thus, Halladay wins this battle, having compiled a much better ERA over the past season and a half, albeit, Lee’s ERA is still ace material.

Strikeouts are very important, especially since the Phillies play in what I like to call a “true-outcomes” ballpark. That’s just my way of saying that when it comes to hitting in the Phillies’ band box, any hard hit ball tends to carry deep and the run scoring ensues. Thus, a pitcher that can produce a positive true-outcome for the defense, ergo a strikeout, is crucial to keeping balls in the ballpark. Of course, Halladay reigns supreme yet again, averaging 7.9 strikeouts per inning to Lee’s 6.3.

Lastly, you have to look at the Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP). It’s not even close. Even last year, when Lee won the Cy Young award, Halladay still had a WHIP of 1.053 to Lee’s 1.110, and this year, the discrepancy is even greater.

So there’s no question, the Phillies did not manage to sneak up and get the best player that no one was thinking of. However, they still got a very good player, who if in the right circumstances, could return to 2008 form when he was the best pitcher in baseball. And even if he plays like he is, his 3.41 ERA and 29-12 record over the past season and a half is nothing to sneeze at. But it is something to laugh at…all the way to the bank, as the Phillies steal of Lee has left them with an embarrassment of riches both in their rotation and their farm system.

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