Predicting the Final NFC Games According to AYP
December 23, 2009 by Staff
Filed under All Sports
When it comes to football, it is one of the hardest sports there is to take a single factor and use it to predict the outcome of a game. In baseball, it’s not so hard, as the starting pitcher(s) has more impact on the game than just about any other player. In hockey, the best goalie usually wins the game. And in basketball, a team’s overall offensive and defensive efficiency as simply measured by their average point differential is about as predictive a factor as there is, just ask ESPN’s John Hollinger.
In football though, there is no such factor. The best defense can easily be done in by a potent offense. The best offense can be done in by a team that does nothing but sack the quarterback. The best running back can be shut down, and the best secondary can be manipulated. When you have 22 people on the field, all with different and equally important responsibilities, it’s just impossible to look at any one thing or statistic and use it to determine the outcome of a game.
However, we can still use the “best” predictive factor, can’t we? And in my opinion, and in the opinion of many others, average yards per pass (AYP) (on both sides of the ball) is probably one of the more predictive factors there is in football. Why is it the best?
There are many reasons, and I’m sure I’ll forget even some of the more logical and vital ones, but there are 3 key reasons I like to point to as to why I like to use AYP as a predictive statistic.
The first reason simply has to do with efficiency. A team that averages a lot of yards per pass means they get the most out of each attempt. There is simply something to be said for a team that gets more yards than any other team for every drop back of the quarterback.
Secondly, a high AYP means that a team avoids sacks. Of course, this assumes that our use of AYP accounts for sacks (which it should and does). That said, if a team is avoiding sacks, that probably means that they are staying on schedule, which means they have an easier time converting 3rd downs.
Lastly, a high AYP probably means the team is capable of running the ball efficiently. If a team is averaging a high number of yards per pass that means teams have to take the extra defender out of the box. Of course, this doesn’t always mean the high AYP team takes advantage of that, but that option is probably there.
Of course, those same 3 reasons I gave for using AYP as a predictive statistic can be applied to the defense in the opposite manner; thus, team’s giving up high AYPs fall victim to the very successes of a high AYP offense that we just mentioned.
So, now that we have that established, let’s use AYP to predict how the race to postseason in the NFL will pan out in the final two weeks of the season.
New York Giants (8-6)
Off. AYP: 7.2 (6th in NFL)
Def. AYP: 6.2 (20th in NFL)
The Giants play Carolina this week. The Panthers have the 23rd ranked offensive AYP and the 15th ranked defensive AYP. By this predictor, the Panthers lose out on both sides of the ball. Giants beat Panthers.
Then the Giants play Minnesota Vikings. Who knows what the Vikes will have to play for come this week. However, the Vikes rank 10th in offensive AYP and 14th in defensive AYP, which means they win the matchup on offense but lose on defense to the Giants. Because the Giants have the 6th ranked offensive AYP, 4 spots better than the Vikes’, I will go with the Giants.
Thus, we have the Giants winning out, and finishing the season 10-6.
Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
Off. AYP: 7.3 (5th)
Def. AYP: 6.1 (18th)
The Cowboys have a very nice offensive AYP, but are lacking on defense. Because of that, they beat the Washington Redskins on the offensive side of the AYP equation, but lose the Skins’ 15th ranked offensive AYP. But going back to the same tiebreaker we used with the Giants and Vikes, the Cowboys have the better offensive AYP (5th vs. the Skins’ 15th ranked offensive AYP), and thus we give the win over the Skins.
The Cowboys then play the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17. The Eagles offensive AYP ranking of 9th best the Cowboys defensive ranking of 18th. The Cowboys, conversely, have the same ranking offensively (5th) as the Eagles have defensively (5th), giving us our first tie of the day. With the Eagles winning on offense and tie on defense, that gives the nod and the game to the Eagles.
This means the Cowboys finish 1-1 and finish with a 10-6 record.
Green Bay Packers (9-5)
Off. AYP: 6.8 (11th)
Def. AYP: 5.7 (7th)
The Packers are formidable on both sides of the ball. In Week 16, they face Seattle. Seattle ranks 22nd and 23rd in AYP on offense and defense, respectively. This should be an easy one for the Packers based on AYP.
In Week 17, the Pack faces the Cards. Once again, we don’t know how much this game will mean by then, but based on the numbers, Green Bay best the Cards on both sides of the ball, albeit barely, and thus we’ll give them the nod here.
The Packers finish the season with 2 wins and a record of 11-5.
Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)
Off. AYP: 7.0 (9th)
Def. AYP: 5.5 (5th)
The Eagles have already clinched a playoff spot, but could be playing for as high as the #2 seed in the NFC. This week, the Eagles play the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are great on defense (2nd) and trump the Eagles offensive AYP ranking of 9th. But the Eagles defensive AYP trumps Denver’s offensive AYP (15th). Thus, we have a tie, and tie goes to the higher offensive ranking, which is the Eagles, so we give them this game.
In Week 17, the Eagles will travel to Dallas. We broke this game down earlier. The Eagles get the win.
Thus, we have the Eagles winning out and finishing the season 12-4.
Arizona Cardinals (9-5)
Offensive AYP: 6.5 (12th)
Defensive AYP: 5.9 (12th)
The Cardinals face the Rams last week. The Rams AYP ranking is in the 30’s on both sides of the ball, so the Cards get this matchup.
In Week 17, the Cardinals face Green Bay, and as we discussed earlier, the Packers win that matchup.
The Cardinals will finish 1-1 and 10-6 for 2009 NFL season.
Minnesota Vikings (11-3)
Offensive AYP: 6.9 (10th)
Defensive AYP: 6.0 (14th)
The Vikings are the last team we will cover, as the Saints are likely the #1 seed. That being said, the Vikes will play the Chicago Bears in Week 16. The Bears offensive AYP ranking (21st) and their defensive AYP ranking (10th) result in a tie for the Vikes on offense and a win for the Vikes on defense. Thus, the Bears get the win.
The Vikings then play the New York Giants in Week 17. We broke that game down earlier, with each team winning the offensive AYP battle, but with the tiebreaker going to the Giants higher ranked offense (in terms of AYP).
Thus, we have the Vikings going 1-1 in the final 2 games, and finishing 12-4.
So with all of that said, how does this AYP prediction project into the playoff picture. Here is how the seeds work out based on the results we have predicted:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
3. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
4. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
5. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
6. New York Giants (10-6)
So there you have it!
We have the Giants making the playoffs, with the Cowboys missing the postseason due to their two losses to New York.
There’s no need to watch the games over the next two weeks, we’ve predicted it all!
