The AFC Playoff Picture: Entering Week 16
December 21, 2009 by Staff
Filed under All Sports
Well, you could look at the AFC Playoff scenarios in two ways.
On the one hand, what you see is what you get. The Ravens and Broncos could wind up as the two wildcards, with the current 4 division leaders holding on to their spots as well.
But on the other hand, with six teams tied at 7-7, and all of them just a game back of Baltimore and Denver, things could get pretty dicey by the end of Week 16.
So what do we make of all of this?
Well, I’ll give you brief look at what each team needs to do in order to make the playoffs, starting with the teams with the most realistic chances of playing in the postseason.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-5, first in North)
The Bengals have a 1-game lead in the AFC North over the Baltimore Ravens. However, it really is 2-game lead, because of there is a tie between the two teams at the end of the season, the Bengals would get the nod because they have beaten the Ravens twice this season. That means that the Bengals are a game away from clinching the division. They have the Chiefs next week, followed by a game against the Jets who may be fighting the Bengals for a playoff spot under the right circumstances. The Bengals better get a “W” against the Chiefs in Week 16 if they want any assurances of making it to the postseason.
Baltimore Ravens (8-6, 2nd in North, 1st in Wildcard)
The Ravens have to win out and the Bengals have to lose out in order for them to win the division. That’s a long shot, but the Ravens still control their own playoff destiny, if they can beat the Steelers and the Raiders in Week 17. The Steelers would love to avenge a loss to the Ravens in which Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play. If the Ravens win that game, they set themselves up for an automatic berth with a win over the Raiders. However, if they lose that game, a lot of things come into play in Week 17 that could see the Ravens knocked out by teams with better conference records, such as the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Denver Broncos (8-6, 2nd in West, 2nd in Wildcard)
The Broncos dropped the ball when they lost to the Raiders on Sunday. A win there might have sewed up playoff berth for them, but now they have to travel to Philadelphia, for a 1 o’clock start, in a game that could very well determine their season. If the Broncos fall back to pack and are 8-7 after Week 15, they could lose tiebreakers to the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers and Ravens. Umm, yeah. The Broncos need to win out.
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7, 2nd in South; 1st in Logjam)
The Jaguars surrendered their playoff positioning with their loss to the Colts last Thursday night, but they do have the leg up on all of the 7-7 teams. Their conference record of 6-4 is the best of all the 7-7 teams. However, they do have to play New England next week—not a good look. And while Cleveland isn’t the best of teams, they certainly haven’t mailed it in this season, and Jacksonville isn’t exactly the best team at playing in cold weather. So while their 6-4 conference record is in their favor, their chances of holding on to that record are hard to believe in.
Miami Dolphins (7-7, 2nd in East, 2nd in Logjam)
The Dolphins hold onto the 2nd spot in the logjam with a 5-5 conference record and 2 wins over the Jets. They play Houston and Pittsburgh over the next two weeks, both at home. If they can beat Houston, Denver loses to Philly, and Jacksonville falls victim at New England next week, the Dolphins will play the Pittsburgh Steelers for a berth in the AFC playoffs. And in all reality, that’s not all that farfetched.
New York Jets (7-7, 2nd in East, 3rd in Logjam)
The Jets have two losses to the Dolphins, so they need the Dolphins to lose at least one more game. Should that happen, the Jets still have it tough. They have the Colts this week, and it doesn’t look as if they are going to stop playing for that 16-0 record. However, should the Jets capture that miraculous victory, they play the Bengals in Week 17, and they probably don’t have much of anything to play for that week should they beat the Chiefs like we expect them to (and if the Chargers win as well). That said, I really can’t see the Jets beating the Colts in Indy, so I’m not betting on the Jets being in the playoffs and either should you.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7, 3rd in North, 4th in Logjam)
This week’s game between the Steelers and the Ravens is where the playoffs get interesting. If the Steelers win, not only does it give the Steelers their only shot at the playoffs, but it opens the door for all of the other teams sitting at 7-7. The Ravens and Steelers went to overtime several weeks ago, and that was without Big Ben. If Ben is the difference in this game, as he was in 3 games against the Ravens a year ago, the Steelers could make the AFC playoff picture even wilder. That said, the Steelers would then have to go to Miami, a tough game, and they would have to have all of teams above them lose a game. Ouch.
Tennessee Titans (7-7, 2nd in South, 5th in Logjam)
Eight weeks ago, you would have been slapped if you said the Titans would be a game out of the playoffs with 2 games to go. But that is the case. While it’s a little more complicated than that, the Titans chances are still pretty small. For whatever reason, the NFL decided to schedule the Titans and Chargers for a Christmas Night game on Friday, in which the Chargers have to travel to Nashville. If the Chargers are unhappy about that, they could come out losers, and the Titans could get to 8-7. However, their conference record of 4-7 could hold them back, unless they get some help in front of them.
Houston Texans (7-7, 2nd in South, Last in Logjam)
The Texans really have no chance at making the playoffs. Not only do they face the Dolphins and the Patriots over the next two weeks, but they have the second-worst conference record among the AFC of the 7-7 teams. To put it mildly, barring a miracle, they’re finished.
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