TSW http://thesportswatchers.com TheSportsWatchers.com Sat, 06 Apr 2013 05:06:17 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 Fantasy Football Digest: April 6, 2013 http://thesportswatchers.com/fantasy-football/fantasy-football-digest-april-6-2013-4669 http://thesportswatchers.com/fantasy-football/fantasy-football-digest-april-6-2013-4669#comments Sat, 06 Apr 2013 05:06:17 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/fantasy-football/fantasy-football-digest-april-6-2013-4669 Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections: QBs Our Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections are in, and we do have a couple of surprises for you. That being said, we weren’t very surprised about what conspired in the NFL last week. We saw Michael Vick and Andy Dalton have great games, while Tim Tebow and Philip Rivers [...]

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Week 5 Fantasy Football Predictions for Running Backs. ]]> Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections: QBs Our Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections are in, and we do have a couple of surprises for you. That being said, we weren’t very surprised about what conspired in the NFL last week. We saw Michael Vick and Andy Dalton have great games, while Tim Tebow and Philip Rivers [...]

The post "Fantasy Football Digest: April 6, 2013" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/fantasy-football/fantasy-football-digest-april-6-2013-4669/feed/ 0 Guillen’s Comments Shouldn’t and Don’t Inspire Effective Disdain http://thesportswatchers.com/mlb/guillens-comments-shouldnt-and-dont-inspire-effective-disdain-4661 http://thesportswatchers.com/mlb/guillens-comments-shouldnt-and-dont-inspire-effective-disdain-4661#comments Sun, 22 Apr 2012 22:50:10 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4661 Forgive me for my lack of backbone in advance, but I cannot promise that by the end of this post, I will have taken a stance on the Ozzie Guillen commotion. Granted, here I am, responding to an incident that happened over two weeks ago and has already seen the apology and suspension of Mr. [...]

The post "Guillen’s Comments Shouldn’t and Don’t Inspire Effective Disdain" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Friday Predictions – September 12, 2008. ]]> Forgive me for my lack of backbone in advance, but I cannot promise that by the end of this post, I will have taken a stance on the Ozzie Guillen commotion. Granted, here I am, responding to an incident that happened over two weeks ago and has already seen the apology and suspension of Mr. [...]

Ozzie Guillen Comments
Forgive me for my lack of backbone in advance, but I cannot promise that by the end of this post, I will have taken a stance on the Ozzie Guillen commotion. Granted, here I am, responding to an incident that happened over two weeks ago and has already seen the apology and suspension of Mr. Guillen, but I still feel as if there is more to be said about this issue.

Namely, it seems quite clear to me that had Ozzie Guillen replaced the name he used in his oft-talked about statement for another certain name, Guillen would not still have a job with the Miami Marlins.

Since I’m writing about this issue, in what seems like 6 months after it occurred, let me refresh your memory of the situation. Guillen, manager of the Miami Marlins, made comments in a magazine interview that are as follows:

I respect Fidel Castro. You know why? A lot of people have wanted to kill Fidel Castro for the last 60 years, but that motherf***** is still here.

After saying that, the city of Miami, led largely by their predominant Cuban population, voiced their displeasure with Guillen’s comments and seeming show of respect for a person who is considered to be a heinous dictator by the Cuban community and the world around. With said commotion swirling around Guillen and the Marlins, Guillen issued an apology in which he said the statement got twisted up in the translation and that he is extremely apologetic for the hurtful words that came out of his mouth. Soon thereafter, the Marlins suspended Guillen for five games, which he has served at this point, and Guillen is back to managing the Marlins in their newly minted stadium.

And with Guillen’s return to the dugout, the fervor over his comments seems to have died. Unlike the protesting that immediately followed Guillen’s comments, there was seemingly no visible, public protest at the Marlins ballpark in Guillen’s first game back from suspension. Additionally, attendance seemed to be unaffected by any of the alleged disdain that prompted the media attention that Guillen’s comments got.

That my friend, is another sign of fans verbally expressing displeasure and financially expressing the very opposite when forced to make a decision. During the peak Castro-gate, many fans of the Marlins swore to protest, boycott games and reach out to the advertisers of the Miami Marlins. But when push came to shove, and dollars truly had to be pocketed, the fans decided not to vote with their money and instead went on to cheer on the Marlins to a successful homestand in the new ballpark.

But what if the name that came out of Guillen’s mouth had been “Hitler” and not “Castro,” would that have changed the result?

I would like to think that Americans don’t weigh atrocities and compare one’s pain to another person’s pain, but it’s safe to say that Hitler goes down as the most despised figure of the 20th century. On the other hand, Castro, for all his bad deeds have done to Cuba and global community, probably isn’t in the top 10 of all the time despised figures. Call that poor perspective, lack of universal awareness or just plain bias in the fact that Hitler created a war that killed Americans and Castro did not, but for whatever reason, I’m also assured to get more of a reaction out of you if I make a movie about Hitler than I would if I made a movie about Castro.

At the end of the day, both dictators have blood on their hands. One is really no better than the other. And yet, myself, and many others that I have discussed this with, feel the same way–that if Guillen had said he had respect for Hitler, Guillen would be out of Major League Baseball today. But because he said Castro, a far-less attention-grabbing name, Guillen got five games instead of his career. Is that fair? And if not, who is it not fair to?

The surface level argument is that by not firing Guillen for using Castro, when many of us think he’d be fired for using the name Hitler, that the Cuban voice is being marginalized. Again, we can’t say for certain that Guillen would even be fired if he expressed respect for Hitler, but one cannot fault a Cuban-American for feeling as if that is the case given the USA’s strong, vocal defense of the Jewish community, the US military and Israel over the years. And if you are a Cuban American today, it would be hard to fault you for viewing this country as having somehow given more credence to the pain of Jews and American soldiers than we do to Cuban Americans.

That being said, that’s not where I would cast my accusations of a lack of fairness. Instead, I turn to whether or not this is fair to the perception of American culture.

Call me crazy, but in a society full of professors, doctors, lawyers and scientists, I don’t really take the political views of Guillen seriously. And yet, when some colorful, loud mouth, trash-talking manager for a below .500 baseball team gives us 30 seconds on his personal views of a once-de facto dictator, while using the term “motherfucker” in his quote, people, the media and everyone else in between goes ape-shit over it.

Yes, I understand that Guilen is a public figure, an influencing voice, and maybe represents Miami and South Florida more than just about anyone else who resides in that area. But he’s still a baseball manager. No offense to pizza guys, but if the dude delivering my pie said something about Castro, I wouldn’t allow it to mess up my day, my hour or the few seconds I spend tying my shoes every morning. As a people, we really have to start putting people in their proper categories, and Guillen doesn’t belong in the one that warrants reaction to views outside of sports.

Now if I’m the president of the Marlins, then yes, the issue concerns me, because this man is employed by me, and what does it say about an individual who wants to work with somebody with the kind of ignorance Guillen displayed. But as a fan of baseball, I don’t expect my manager to be the most knowledgeable when it comes to worldly issues and political figures. Obviously, I don’t want to root for someone who says they respect Castro either; however, I don’t want to put any real effort into removing Guillen from his job, because his comments shouldn’t affect how I feel about the issue or how I live my life. And as the people of Miami just showed you upon Guillen’s return to the dugout, they don’t seem too interested in putting forth much effort to get Guillen canned either. Maybe they are more in line with my line of thinking than I thought.

The post "Guillen’s Comments Shouldn’t and Don’t Inspire Effective Disdain" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/mlb/guillens-comments-shouldnt-and-dont-inspire-effective-disdain-4661/feed/ 0 Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/knicks-dont-have-game-theyve-got-problems-4654 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/knicks-dont-have-game-theyve-got-problems-4654#comments Sun, 22 Jan 2012 20:08:27 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4654 Before I go right into the numbers, let me just explain to you why the New York Knicks are not any good at basketball. First of all, their coach, Mike D’Antoni, doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing. He lets his players take whatever shots he wants, there seems to be no rhyme or reason [...]

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Before I go right into the numbers, let me just explain to you why the New York Knicks are not any good at basketball. First of all, their coach, Mike D’Antoni, doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing. He lets his players take whatever shots he wants, there seems to be no rhyme or reason [...]


Before I go right into the numbers, let me just explain to you why the New York Knicks are not any good at basketball. First of all, their coach, Mike D’Antoni, doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing. He lets his players take whatever shots he wants, there seems to be no rhyme or reason to how the ball gets distributed, and he doesn’t play the right players.

Speaking of the players, they aren’t any good either. Just looking at last year, when they were actually better than they are this year, Amare Stoudemire and the Carmelo were not top 10 players. Yes, Stoudemire had a stretch where he was on fire, as did Carmelo, but those stretches did not result in some huge stretch of wins, and those stretches were merely powered by their scoring totals, not much of anything else they did on the court. Additionally, using 82games.com simple rating, which is “too” simple, but a good starting point for ranking players, neither Stoudemire nor ‘Melo was among the NBA’s top 20 players. In fact, guys like Ray Allen and Manu Ginobili had better seasons than them.

Of course, that was last year, when they actually were winning games. Now the Knicks find themselves with a 6-9 record, which is worse than that of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Amare has been awful, averaging just 18.1 points on 41% shooting. He’s only pulling down 7.8 rebounds per game, which would be great if he were a small forward. Then there is Carmelo—yes, he’s averaging 25 points. Yay for him! But at an equally woeful 41% shooting, each point hurts the team’s ability to win games.

Those are the basic numbers, but a closer look sees even bigger problems.

As the shooting numbers from their two best players would suggest, the Knicks aren’t even good defense—which is all D’Antoni is allegedly coaching. How on Earth LeBron James has a better field goal shooting percentage than Amare Stoudemire is beyond me? Yes, LeBron is a better player, but he takes jump shots. Amare should only take jump shots when they’re falling. If they aren’t falling, he should go to the rim and be a man in the paint. Instead, he has visions of grandeur, and he looks more like Josh Smith this season—if not worse. The fact that the Knicks are getting 41% shooting from their power forward and the Miami Heat are getting 53% shooting from their small forward should tell you all you need to know about the difference between these two teams just in terms of their basketball IQ.

On the flipside, the Knicks aren’t as horrible at defense as they are at offense. In fact, the Knicks rank 13th in defensive efficiency, as they allow a “respectable” 98.9 points per 100 possessions, which is better than the Orlando Magic and the Oklahoma City Thunder. That said, they are merely being helped by the play of rookie point guard Iman Shumpert. Sadly, he’s just a rookie and doesn’t play enough minutes, because as soon as he comes out of the game, Toney Douglass (alleged ACC Defensive Player of the Year in college), let’s points guards do whatever they want to. Just switching from Shumpert to Douglass causes the Knicks to give up 0.19 more points per possession, which is 19 points over 100 possessions. Of course, having Stoudemire and Anthony on the court doesn’t help, but they play too much to single their defensive atrocities out.

The other sad thing here is that Amare and Anthony just do not seem to work well together. The Knicks stats, with limited sample size, are better when it’s just Melo and not Amare on the court. And Amare isn’t nearly as good when he is on his lonesome.

Listen, could this be the ill effects of a prolonged offseason? Maybe. But if it is, we should start to see a change in the next 7 days. The Knicks will have played 20 games by then, and that should be more than enough to have things together. Problem is, however, that Baron Davis may be ready to return the following week, which could slow down the Knicks progress for another month. Thus, it’s likely that improvement is nowhere in the Knicks immediate future, and that pieces need to be moved. Maybe we can’t make the decision based on 15 games, but at some point, long before we reach 66, the evaluation on this New York Knicks will be complete, and it’s not likely to be a good one.

The post "Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/knicks-dont-have-game-theyve-got-problems-4654/feed/ 0 Elway’s Question: To Tebow or not to Tebow? http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/elways-question-to-tebow-or-not-to-tebow-4646 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/elways-question-to-tebow-or-not-to-tebow-4646#comments Mon, 19 Dec 2011 04:18:35 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4646 To Tebow or not to Tebow? That is the question. And no, I am not talking about whether it is insensitive to get down in a prayer stance as an homage/mockery of Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow. Instead, I’m talking about whether or not John Elway and the Broncos organization should commit to their first-round [...]

The post "Elway’s Question: To Tebow or not to Tebow?" was originally published at TSW.

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John Elway, Denver Broncos
To Tebow or not to Tebow? That is the question. And no, I am not talking about whether it is insensitive to get down in a prayer stance as an homage/mockery of Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow. Instead, I’m talking about whether or not John Elway and the Broncos organization should commit to their first-round pick as the franchise signal caller of the future.

Just as recently as two weeks ago, in the middle of a 7-1 stretch by Tim Tebow, Elway told the listening Denver public that he was not committed to Tim Tebow as his franchise quarterback. That obviously sat with many different people in one of two ways. The people who believe in Tebow were observably upset. And the people that don’t think Tebow can quarterback in the NFL were glad that Elway’s trepidation supported their analysis of Tebow.

But regardless of what you think about Tebow’s long-term viability as a quarterback in the NFL, I want you to think about what’s fair and what isn’t.

Tim Tebow is 7-2 as an NFL starter this year. Sure, he hasn’t beaten up on much of any team that’s worth a damn, and his two losses came at the hands of quarterbacks that are considered inarguably better passers. But a record of 7-2 is a record of 7-2, and even if Tebow’s passing numbers do not seem to suggest that he can sustain such a high-level of winning over a long-period of time, his play on the field does.

One of the things that Tebow gets unfairly charged with when his critics are coming at him is that he has been extremely lucky that the defense is playing for him in a way that they didn’t play for Kyle Orton, who was the starter the five games before Tebow entered the lineup. Now, in some ways, those critics are right; Tebow has posted a 20-point game just twice in his nine starts. But what those critics are unfairly failing to recognize is that Tebow’s protection of the ball keeps his defense from being in unfortunate positions. Additionally, Tebow’s ability to run the ball for first downs keeps the clock running and his defense on the sideline.

Tebow’s critics also charge him with getting the added benefit of a recharged Willis McGahee, who like the defense, was not playing this well at the running back position when Orton was in the lineup. Problem is that Tebow has contributed to McGahee’s resurgence as much as McGahee himself has. Tebow’s ability to run the football softens up the defense throughout the game, nevermind his ability to take the ball on a read play and go out the backdoor against the defense for a 15-yard gain. So those who say that Tebow is lucky that McGahee is producing like this for him are just being unfair.

Of course, I understand that completing just two passes in a game is something that his critics are going to find hard to consider “winning football,” but the other things he does on the field are inarguably contributing to his team’s ability to win.

That’s why it seems unfair not to commit to Tebow at this point. At 7-2, he can’t do much more to prove he can win the NFL. What John Elway is doing right now by not committing to Tebow is saying that the young quarterback has been lucky, and that over a larger sample-size, you will likely see him fail. While that may be the prudent and smart way to approach this, as larger sample sizes almost always yield more worthwhile results, it’s just not fair to do that to a guy who is potentially the future of your franchise.

How would you like it if at your job, you were the best salesman in your department during a boom in the economy, and your employer refused to give you and your team salary increases and better benefits because he wasn’t sure you could maintain your level of work when the boom went away?

You wouldn’t like it. Hell, you would be mad about it. After all, you didn’t bring the good economy, but now you’re being forced to pay for it? And if a couple years later, you were still producing at that same rate and another, better opportunity came along, you don’t think you would hold your employer’s previous lack of faith against it when making that decision?

Well, in this case, Tebow’s not the reason the defense and running games were bad when Orton was the quarterback. And even if you don’t believe that he’s part of the reason each of those aspects of the Denver Broncos games are better, you shouldn’t be punishing Tebow for flourishing in the success of them.

This whole Tebow situation kind of reminds me of another quarterback that was constantly told that he couldn’t be a long-term guy in the NFL because of what were “literally” his shortcomings.

Doug Flutie just couldn’t maintain a starting job in the NFL because he wasn’t considered tall enough to do so. This in spite of being a killer quarterback in the Canadian football league and having a winning record in the NFL. Instead of being deemed the starter in New England after going 6-3 with the team, he was sent packing. Instead of being named the starter in Buffalo after going 14-6 during his last 20 games there, Flutie was booted for another quarterback. And instead of getting the gig in San Diego, albeit at the ripe age of 40, he was sent to the bench after a 5-11 season with a team that had been the worst team in the NFL the season prior.

Granted, Flutie wasn’t the purest passer ever, he wasn’t very conventional, and his stature in the pocket, or lack thereof, certainly did hurt him at times. However, 38-28 is a pretty decent record, especially after 16 games with the worst team in the league. And his 86-68 touchdown-to-interception ratio is better than what you see from the Mark Sanchezs, Joey Harringtons and the Akili Smiths of the world; all of which got handed the keys to their franchises without really earning them.

Which brings me back to Tim Tebow. Have you ever seen Mark Sanchez go 7-2 for a stretch? Is Sanchez protecting the ball like Tebow is? Can Sanchez affect the running game the same way that Tebow can from the quarterback position? The answers to all of those questions is no, and yet Sanchez is the guy that had the full support of the franchise behind him from Day One.

Listen, I’m not trying to tell Elway what he should do with his budgets, because at the end of the day, it’s his neck that is on the line. Quite frankly, I can’t even fault him for being prudent after watching the Buffalo Bills throw away millions of dollars to Ryan Fiztpatrick because he looked above average for six games. And as a numbers guy, I certainly am not going to sit here and say that Tebow is owed a commitment due to his play, as I know very well that business is business, and sometimes being “fair” has no business in business.

However, in some rare occasions, being unfair in the name of your business can actually do harm unto it.

Maybe Tebow will never be a confident passer in the first three quarters of games because he always feels as if a bad throw will cost him his job; kind of in the same way Doug Flutie felt back during his mess.

Maybe Elway never finds out what the full potential of Tebow is by not committing to an offensive style and personnel that is befitting of his quarterback’s talents.

Maybe, just maybe, Elway forgoes one of the few quarterbacks that can tangibly make his defense better without playing a single snap on that side of the football.

And maybe, in the name of “business,” Elway and the Broncos never get to see Tim Tebow at his best until they are playing against him and the Chiefs. And maybe that Tebow-led team beats the Broncos, but what’s fair is fair—when it comes to business.

The post "Elway’s Question: To Tebow or not to Tebow?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/elways-question-to-tebow-or-not-to-tebow-4646/feed/ 0 The NBA is Back…And So is the Offseason! http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-nba-is-back%e2%80%a6and-so-is-the-offseason-4642 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-nba-is-back%e2%80%a6and-so-is-the-offseason-4642#comments Tue, 06 Dec 2011 17:02:47 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4642 The NBA is set to start in a couple of weeks, and it sounds as if everybody wants to trade everybody before the 2012 season tips off on Christmas Day. Some reports have Dwight Howard moving, Chris Paul traded and there’s even a Greg Oden sighting. So what are some of the more realistic scenarios [...]

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Nene Hilario
The NBA is set to start in a couple of weeks, and it sounds as if everybody wants to trade everybody before the 2012 season tips off on Christmas Day. Some reports have Dwight Howard moving, Chris Paul traded and there’s even a Greg Oden sighting.

So what are some of the more realistic scenarios out there?

I don’t know. But I do know what the interesting scenarios are. Here are a couple of trades, which if played out, would make for some interesting storylines during the 2012 NBA season.

Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers
If you thought Lakers-Heat was what you wanted to see last season, a Dwight Howard trade to Los Angeles would make this the matchup of the century. I feel as if there is no way the rest of the league would allow this trade to happen without some team offering the Orlando Magic more trade-bait, but if it did go down, we are talking about a “Big Three” in Los Angeles that is actually more talented than the Big Three in Miami. Just think about it; Gasol is better than Chris Bosh, Howard is just as talented as a Dwyane Wade, and Kobe Bryant, for a single game, can bring what LeBron James is bringing to the table, albeit, he’s not actually as good as LeBron at this point in his career. Needless to say, I can’t imagine a more watched NBA Finals matchup than this if Howard, all of a sudden is dawning the Purple and Gold.

Chris Paul to the Boston Celtics for 1-Year
As sad as I would be to see Chris Paul go anywhere other than my beloved New York Knicks, watching Paul play under a 1-year promise to the Celtics would be amazing. If he is indeed intending on opting out in order to exercise his free agency, he would essentially be auditioning for the next and biggest contract of his life. And for him to be playing for the edgy, trash-talking, chest-beating, Kevin-Garnett-electrified Boston Celtics—well, that could lead to some of the best show-boating we have ever seen on an NBA Basketball court. I can already see Paul Pierce buzzing around the court after Paul feeds him a dime for the game-winning lay-up. Ray Allen is holding his hand up in the air after hitting the three off a CP3 pass. Paul himself flashing that movie-star smile of his after an alley-oop pass. And of course, Kevin Garnett’s beady eyes are staring down yet another European player as he beats his chest with his abnormally sized right-hand—and all that for a mere 17-foot jumper that forced the other time to call a timeout.

Steve Nash to the New York Knicks
Talk of the town is that if the New York Knicks aren’t able to land Chris Paul this season, they will go after Nash as the second-place prize. While Nash isn’t what Chris Paul is at this point in his career, on any given night, Nash can get the better of CP3 and he is a much better shooter. But the reason Nash’s arrival in New York would be worth watching is because Nash has played in Mike D’Antoni’s system before. Are we going to see back-to-back MVP winner Nash when he reunites with D’Antoni? Of course not. But he still would be about as good as any other point guard in the league (offensively) could be in that offense. Nash automatically makes the Knicks one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA. The defense will probably suck, but we saw that whole Suns “no-defense” approach turn the Suns from jokes to legitimate threats—something Knicks fan (I among them) would certainly embrace.

Nene Hilario to the Miami Heat
I don’t even know how this ridiculous notion even gets brought up, as Hilario is said to be looking for max money in his next contract. While he probably won’t ever see that kind of money, it’s hard to imagine him coming so far off of that to the point where the Heat would be able to take him. The Heat can pursue Hilario via trade, but who do they give up to get him? Mike Miller isn’t good. Udonis Haslem is old. And trading Bosh would be a sign of panic the Heat just wouldn’t show. Realism aside, if Nene becomes a member of the Heat; look out the world! He is a great rebounder, tough defender and really just a man who knows how to do work in the paint. If Pat Riley can pull this one off and get Nene to come to South Beach, the Heat may have found the player with enough mental and physical fortitude to offset the mental issues we saw from LeBron in last year’s NBA Finals.

The post "The NBA is Back…And So is the Offseason!" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-nba-is-back%e2%80%a6and-so-is-the-offseason-4642/feed/ 3 Bucs Show Their Statistically-True Colors http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/bucs-show-their-statistically-true-colors-4636 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/bucs-show-their-statistically-true-colors-4636#comments Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:01:58 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4636 Boy was I wrong about my Philadelphia Eagles. They are now 3-6 and officially out of playoff contention as far as I am concerned. Rather than talk about how wrong I was about that though, let’s discuss something I got right—even if we have to go back an entire season to do it. The Tampa [...]

The post "Bucs Show Their Statistically-True Colors" was originally published at TSW.

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Josh Freeman and Blount
Boy was I wrong about my Philadelphia Eagles. They are now 3-6 and officially out of playoff contention as far as I am concerned. Rather than talk about how wrong I was about that though, let’s discuss something I got right—even if we have to go back an entire season to do it.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not so good either. They now sit at 4-5, and their shot at a wild-card berth is pretty long too. However, coming off that 10-6 season last year, along with head coach Raheem Morris calling the team the best in the NFC early in 2010, much was expected of the Buccaneers. By no means was it “Dream Team” or bust for the Bucs, but people at least thought they would be better than a sub-500 team entering Week 11.

Well, they aren’t. And I hate to tell Buccaneers fans that I told them so, but I told them so.

After the end of the season last year, I wrote a piece detailing just how much of a mirage that 10-6 finish was. It was mired in silly little things like stats, blatant observations and strengths of schedule. But some people didn’t want to hear it. Some people couldn’t stand to hear the truth. Despite knowing full-well that the NFL is a league that legislates equality, some Bucs fans couldn’t wrap their heads around the fact that nothing had been fixed. That their 10-6 record was the result of easy opponents and lucky wins. Nobody wants to admit that luck and ease are the reasons for their successes, but we all have to wake up and smell the roses sooner or later—just ask President Bush Jr.

The Bucs beat bad teams last year, they won close games for which there is no ability to be able to do so, and their interception rate was highly uncommon. And now in 2011, when luck and ease aren’t on the side of a 10-6 team that everybody is preparing for, they find themselves with a -77 point differential, throwing far more interceptions, and there aren’t as many bottom-feeders on their schedule this year. That, my friend, is the recipe for a 4-5 record, which should be expected since the Buccaneers have 4-5 talent.

However, I am not pointing out the Bucs failures because I like doing so; I’m doing this because I want to pay homage to the randomness of football. Here we are, a Bucs team, supposedly markedly better given the team’s additions and maturity, and yet their record would suggest that they may not be as half as good as they were last year. But records are deceiving, and they can sometimes hide the randomness. Fact is, a lucky bounce or two the other way, and the Bucs would have been 6-10. Their point differential of just +23 last year was by far the lowest of any team with at least 10 wins. That means they won more games than they should have, and that my friend is called luck.

But luck goes both ways. The Bucs are seeing it this year, as are my Eagles too. So lift your chin-up Buccaneers fans. Yes, it sucks seeing that your 10-6 record was not the building block you thought it was, and finding yourselves searching for answers yet again definitely is not fun. But when the 2011 NFL season is all said and done, at least you can say that your backup quarterback didn’t go out there proclaim your squad the “Dream Team” before pooping on themselves at the bottom of the NFC East.

The post "Bucs Show Their Statistically-True Colors" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/bucs-show-their-statistically-true-colors-4636/feed/ 0 Zo Knows: Neither religion nor “Tebowing” is off-limits to comedy http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/neither-religion-nor-tebowing-is-off-limits-to-comedy-4631 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/neither-religion-nor-tebowing-is-off-limits-to-comedy-4631#comments Mon, 07 Nov 2011 19:34:46 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4631 I know I am kind of late to this, but due to the nature of my constant eating, frequent television watching and unjustified laziness, I hadn’t gotten around to the whole “Tebowing” thing until recently. Actually, it was only minutes ago that I finished reading a week-old piece on ESPN.com by Jemele Hill, who took [...]

The post "Zo Knows: Neither religion nor “Tebowing” is off-limits to comedy" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> I know I am kind of late to this, but due to the nature of my constant eating, frequent television watching and unjustified laziness, I hadn’t gotten around to the whole “Tebowing” thing until recently. Actually, it was only minutes ago that I finished reading a week-old piece on ESPN.com by Jemele Hill, who took [...]

Stephen Tulloch Mocks Tim Tebow

I know I am kind of late to this, but due to the nature of my constant eating, frequent television watching and unjustified laziness, I hadn’t gotten around to the whole “Tebowing” thing until recently.

Actually, it was only minutes ago that I finished reading a week-old piece on ESPN.com by Jemele Hill, who took exception to the Detroit Lions players that “Tebowed” after making plays against the Denver Broncos in the Lions 35-point win over Tim Tebow. And boy do I have a response to her piece.

To put it simply, I think the “Tebowing” done by the Lions was fair game, funny and I don’t agree with Hill’s assertion that the Lions mocking of Tim Tebow’s prayer stance was mocking religion. To believe that, you either have to be blinded by your own beliefs or you lack nuance and perspective. Because if you remove Tebow from the situation, the Lions do not do the “Tebow.” So to say that they are mocking religion, when it isn’t religion that is driving the actions they are taking, seems a bit perspectiveless to me.

Here are a few other points of contention I had with what Ms. Hill had to say…

“I’m sure Tebow wasn’t trying to create a craze when he knelt to the ground and prayed as his teammates celebrated wildly around him following the improbable victory over Miami.” – Jemele Hill

In all honestly, I agree with Hill here. I don’t think when Tebow decides to pray on a knee that he is doing so to create a craze or even to promote his religious beliefs. I honestly believe he has an emotional reaction that causes him to do that. But for Hill to make a positive assumption about Tebow’s intentions and not that of the Lions actions that mocked Tebow is unfair.

In her piece, Hill says that the Lions that did the “Tebow,” (Tony Scheffler and Stephen Tulloch) “disrespect[ed] Tebow’s faith” with their actions. That’s quite an assumption and a hell of an accusation, even if she admits that they did not do so on purpose. For her to assume that Tebow is not trying to start a craze nor bring attention to himself, but label Tulloch and Scheffler’s actions disrespectful is inequitable. On one hand, she is alleviating Tebow of any responsibility for bringing attention to himself, yet on the other hand, she’s chastising two people for responding to the attention Tebow gets and mocking one of the very things that Tebow does (intentionally or not) to bring attention to himself.

“Making fun of someone else’s spiritual connection is on par with ridiculing them about their family.” – Jemele Hill

When Hill says something like this, she is holding up a strawman. In general, of course you shouldn’t go around mocking someone because of the family they come from, nor should you mock their family. The key phrase there though is “in general.” In context, of course it’s okay to mock someone because of their family. It happens all of the time in entertainment. I saw a plethora of comedians mock the Sheens when Charlie was going through his whole debacle. I hear a “Royal Family” joke just about every week. And what late night host didn’t take shots at the Clintons and the Bush’s when their respective family members took to the election cycle one administration removed?

I will take it a step further. It’s okay to make fun of somebody for a plethora of reasons, if done in the right context. Do comedians not make race jokes all the time? Do friends not make fun of each other for being too short, too tall, too skinny or too fat? Have you never made fun of somebody who was too nerdy, too narcissistic or too forgetful?

So when did one’s “spiritual connection” become more sacred than the hundreds of other things that are beyond one’s control?

“…If Tebow were Muslim or Jewish, would Tulloch and Scheffler have been so quick to execute a prayer parody?” – Jemele Hill

Hill’s point here is well-understood. Tulloch probably would have been scared shit-less had someone come to him with the idea of doing the Hora after sacking quarterback Sage Rosenfels (albeit, I think that would be funny too). However, if Rosenfels did the Hora after he made big plays in games, making fun of his Hora dance would be fair game. Yes, in our society, it would be much less accepted to make fun of a Jewish or Muslim person’s religious-based on-field actions, because Jews and Muslims are the minorities and their religious beliefs were once (and still are) unfairly treated in society. But just because there might be more backlash doesn’t mean that doing the Hora when playing against Rosenfels would be any worse; it just means society would have a bigger reaction to it. But that’s on society, not on the person, who (within the context of entertainment) was mocking an individual and not the religion. So I say to Jemele, “No, those two guys probably wouldn’t have been so quick to execute a Jewish parody, but they should have been, if Rosenfels did the Hora after each touchdown pass.”

Again, this point of Hill’s is a strawman. Everyone already knows that, in a vacuum, society has more trouble making fun of minorities than they do making fun of the majority. It is far more socially acceptable in comedy to make fun of white people than it is to make fun of black people. But people still make black jokes. And as a black man, I have no problem saying that the closer we get to black jokes being as acceptable to make as white jokes, the closer we are to having a society that is as open and willing to talk about race.

“Just Lighten Up.”

To some degree, that’s really what all of this boils down to. Did you interpret the Lions players making a joke that Sunday or did you see them making fun of a religion? When Terrell Owens did Ray Lewis’s dance after scoring a touchdown against the Ravens, was he making fun of Lewis, or was he disrespecting the art of dance? When Hines Ward scored against the Eagles and flapped his arms, was he disrespecting the endangered Bald Eagle, or was he making fun of Brian Dawkins? You may sit here and think that I’m comparing apples to oranges, but I’m not. While religion is of the highest importance to some, for others, dance and endangered species are held in higher regard, but I didn’t see J-Lo and PETA come out against Owens and Ward.

To parody is defined as “to imitate for purposes of ridicule or satire.” There’s a clear difference between disrespect and parody. As a writer, it’s hard to even fathom a far superior journalist like Hill speaking out against what was undoubtedly a parody of Tim Tebow by the two Lions players.

I hope the next time Hill is in search of her next metaphor, analogy (like the one that got Jemele suspended) or other literary devices (such as these others that also got her in trouble), that she realizes that we use such devices in writing, as well as other forms of entertainment, for not just disrespect, but for humor and self-expression too. Then again, maybe with all of the controversy Hill has seen her use of literary devices get her into, perhaps she now feels the need to make sure that anybody that “crosses” society’s line of acceptability be taken to task as well.

The post "Zo Knows: Neither religion nor “Tebowing” is off-limits to comedy" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/neither-religion-nor-tebowing-is-off-limits-to-comedy-4631/feed/ 1 NBA One on One: Dwight Howard vs. LeBron James http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-one-on-one-dwight-howard-vs-lebron-james-4626 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-one-on-one-dwight-howard-vs-lebron-james-4626#comments Sun, 06 Nov 2011 02:53:03 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4626 I don’t want to get in the habit of comparing two players of different positions too often, but inevitably, this is a part of the NBA that is unlike almost anything else in team sports. After all, in basketball, each position comes with its inherit strengths and weaknesses. Centers get rebounds but can’t dribble. Point [...]

The post "NBA One on One: Dwight Howard vs. LeBron James" was originally published at TSW.

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LeBron James vs. Dwight Howard
I don’t want to get in the habit of comparing two players of different positions too often, but inevitably, this is a part of the NBA that is unlike almost anything else in team sports. After all, in basketball, each position comes with its inherit strengths and weaknesses. Centers get rebounds but can’t dribble. Point guards can dribble but can’t block shots. But when you are the General Manager of a basketball team, and you have to decide between drafting Tim Duncan and Chauncey Billups in the 1997 NBA Draft, there are things about their game that lend to one of them having a bigger impact on the game of basketball than the other.

Now, history tells us that most general managers go with the big man; however, it is not for the reason most people think it is. As it relates to his position, big men cannot control a game any more than a guard. And history demonstrates that with players like Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas and Kobe Bryant dribbling around iconic big men en route to multiple championships.

Thus, the real reason GMs tend to go with the big man over the guard is because of scarcity. There are a plethora of guards and perimeter players in college or in the early parts of their NBA careers that can dribble and shoot effectively. Sometimes getting a good perimeter player is about as scientific and/or lucky as drafting Manu Ginobili with the 57th pick of the NBA draft.

However, with big men, there are far fewer accidents/lucky picks. If a big man has talent, you see it early and often, and draft him early in the draft. This is why you see a lot more guards make it in the league as non-lottery picks than big men make it as non-lottery picks. Still, while talented big men are rare commodities, that does not inherently make them more valuable.

So in trying to analyze this from a GM’s perspective, who is the better player, LeBron James or Dwight Howard?

Dwight Howard

As far as big men go, there is little more to ask of Dwight Howard. He plays incredible defense, rebounds the ball extraordinarily well, and can finish at the rim. Taking it to the next level, he’s an eraser of shots, and there are few big men in the league whose coaches will even allow them to face Howard one-on-one for more than a single dribble.

Howard’s main weaknesses come from a lack of polish—not ability. As it stands, Howard is an extremely efficient scorer. Of the very best players in the NBA, nobody has a higher true-shooting percentage than Dwight, who despite being a poor free throw shooter, managed to maintain a TS% of 62% last season. However, the reason that is so high is because Howard’s game is only on the block and within the paint. While I am never one to knock anybody for keeping their game within their range, those close shots aren’t as easy to create late in games, and it causes a lot of his teammates to stay stagnant.

Then there is also Howard’s passing. Overall, the Orlando Magic do a great job of spreading out and knocking down the threes that are crated by Howard’s presence down low, so naturally, the Magic always rack up a lot of assists. But that inside-outside game, as nice as it sounds, lends to a randomness playing a larger factor in Orlando’s outcomes, and that’s not something that should be as large a part of their ability to win when you have a force like Howard on the team. Howard could solve that by becoming a better interior passer; thus, allowing him to hit cutting teammates in stride as they dive to the basket. Unfortunately, Howard is one of the worse passers, even for a big men, as his ability to share the basketball is more comparable to that of Tyson Chandler, and his turnover proneness is more like that of Samuel Dalembert’s.

LeBron James

It’s pretty easy to overview James’ skills. He’s a do-it-all wingman with the ability to play the point guard too. Offensively, he will attack the rim, take effective mid-range jumpers and pass the ball like Magic Johnson. Defensively, he is pretty close to Dwight Howard, as playing defense at the level LeBron plays on the perimeter is far rarer than Howard’s ability to defend the rim.

There are holes in LeBron’s game, most of them, however, are of the mental variety. Despite being able to score ridiculously for 47 minutes of the game, including clutch moments down the stretch, LeBron’s last-second shot-making ability has to be questioned. Not because of his shooting percentage, but because of his decision-making. Truth be told, making shots at the end of a game isn’t really much of an ability. However, taking good shots, essentially the same shots that lead to those 30-point outputs that LeBron produces so often, is a sign of one’s ability to understand the game and run the offense in the waning seconds. LeBron does anything but that down the stretch—especially on the last play of a game.

LeBron vs. Dwight

For the comparison, I want to look at four things: (1) Shooting & Shot Selection, (2) Defensive Effectiveness, (3) Impact on Score and (4) Cltuchness. I’m using the past season as our point of reference, but will obviously point out anything that needs to be put within the context of their careers.

Shooting and Shot Selection
I know some of you probably scoffed when I said that LeBron is a great mid-range shooter, but the stats don’t lie. LeBron hits 45% of his long distance two-points (those between 16 and 23 feet). That’s not Dirk Nowitzki amazing (52%), but it’s just as good as Chris Paul and is only 1 percentage point less than that of Ray Allen. Comparatively, Howard makes just 35% of his shots from that range, but he takes less than one attempt per game from that distance.

So I know what you’re saying, “this is why you can’t compare these two players.” However, what I see by looking at this is that LeBron’s 5.4 shots per game from long range help spread out the defense. And at his rate of 45%, defenders have to respect that. However, Howard takes just about all of his shots from within 9 feet, allow the defense to pack it in. In a vacuum, this hurts the team and makes the Orlando Magic a 3-point shooting team. So even though Howard’s true-shooting percentage of 62% is better than that of LeBron’s 59%, I will give LeBron the added-benefit of shooting away from the rim. However, I want to be clear, his three-point shooting is already factored into the true-shooting percentage equation (as are free throws), so in using TS%, I don’t have to make assumptions about the added point-value of a three-pointer.
Shoot & Shot Selection Advantage: LeBron James

Defense
Dwight Howard continues to rack up the Defensive MVP awards having collected his third such award in 2011. LeBron James has not won that award, but he has been in the running. The man is an elite defender on the perimeter, and unlike other elite perimeters, offenders cannot try to avoid his quickness by posting him up, as LeBron James doesn’t have too much trouble defending wingmen whose backs are turned to him.

Howard, on the other hand, is just a different animal. Do you understand that his team was #3 in defensive efficiency last year? Name one good defender in their main rotation! That’s right! You can’t! There is no one else. Howard is led a butt load of no-defense playing shooters to defensive performances better than the ones the Spurs, Lakers and most notably, the Heat had last season. Not to mention, Howard is unquestionably the best defensive big man in the NBA, while LeBron isn’t even the best perimeter defender in the league (Andre Iguodala, Tony Allen, etc.).
Defensive Advantage: Dwight Howard

Statistical Impact on Score/Game Outcome
From a purely statistical point of view, Howard had more of an impact on his team’s ability to win a game. The adjusted plus/minus ratio (which takes into account the players you play with when you’re on the court) was 14.1 for Howard and 9.6 for LeBron. Now, that number shouldn’t be taken too out of context, as obviously, LeBron plays with Dywane Wade and Chris Bosh a lot, and they’re on the sideline with him a lot too. That is obviously going to make it look like the team struggles without him on the floor, even when basketball statisticians do their best to account for that in this very “noisy” stat.

When you look at it from both an offensive and defensive perspective though, things really get interesting. We touched on defense earlier, but the facts show that LeBron’s unadjusted defensive impact (-4.51) is a little better than that of Howard’s (-3.04). However, Howard’s team still allows fewer points when he’s in the game than when LeBron is in the game, on a possession-by-possession basis.

Offensively, Howard and LeBron have a plus/minus of (+9.48 and +9.32), respectively. However, LeBron’s Heat score 3 more points per 100 possessions than Howard’s Magic scores.

What this all boils down too is that Howard’s defensive prowess is better than that of LeBron’s, while LeBron’s offensive impact is better than that of Howard’s—before you adjust for who they are playing with. When you adjust for who they are playing with, however, Howard makes his team 5 points better per 100 possessions.
Statistical Impact Advantage: Howard, slightly

Clutchness
But what about when the game comes down to the last handful of possessions—who would you rather have then? Statistically speaking, only Kobe, Derrick Rose and Mo Williams averaged more points per 48 minutes of clutch time than LeBron James, who averaged 45.1 points per 48 minutes of clutch play. Mo Williams aside, LeBron shot better during clutch moments (44%) than those other two guys and he turned the ball over less.

Howard, on the other hand, wasn’t even the best big man in the clutch. Mediocre guys with better outside games like Paul Millsap, Kevin Love, Carlos Boozer and even Blake Griffin were more productive in the clutch than Dwight, who managed a mere 24.8 points per 48 minutes of clutch play. In defense of Howard, he did shoot 72% during those moments, but his ability to create his own shot and take what the defense gave him limited the number of shots he could attempt. It also affected his team’s ability to win, as Howard’s plus/minus during crunch time was just +10 (per 48 minutes) while LeBron’s was +16. Again, LeBron had better people playing with him during these clutch moments, but he also was the one taking the shots, whereas Howard was not. And even when he was, he was usually missing free throws. (Note: James averaged more free throw attempts in the clutch while hitting 84% of his attempts vs. Howard who hit just 59% of his attempts.)

Taking clutch to the extreme, I’m going to go more of the objective route on this. I could go over the percentages, but because of the difficulty of the last-second shot, I’ll just tell you that LeBron’s percentage is bad and Howard doesn’t really take that shot at all. But when the game is on the line, fact is, you don’t really want Dwight with the basketball in his hands, especially if you’re down 2 and they can foul, and never if you’re down by 3 points.

But when you take into account what happened in the NBA Finals this past season, when LeBron shied away from the moment, can you give him the advantage? Sure, he took all the big shots against a Chicago Bulls team that the Heat were clearly better than, and he showed up against the Celtics as well, but when the time to be clutch truly presented itself, LeBron was passing the ball to somebody else to take the jumper. That’s actually no different from what Howard has to do because of his limited range. So can I really penalize Howard for that when LeBron essentially did the same thing the last time we saw him on a basketball court?

Objectively speaking, I can’t do it. But subjectively I can, and I have some reasoning to go with it. First, if LeBron is going to be considered the better finisher, he has to at least play like his normal self on the game’s biggest stage. Instead of doing that, LeBron now has the biggest point-differential drop-off in an NBA Finals series for a player that averaged 25+ points during the season. Second, as we discussed, LeBron can get to the line in the clutch, but in the Finals, he didn’t do that. Again, that’s a sign of him not playing up to the level he typically does during a pivotal point in the season. Last but not least, LeBron’s defense may have been one of the biggest turning points in the series. In Game 5, when Jason Terry netted that three in LeBron’s face as part of a double-digit fourth quarter for Terry with LBJ guarding him, that gave the Dallas Mavericks a lead in the series that they would never relinquish.
Clutch Advantage: LeBron, albeit reluctantly 

Conclusion

All things equal, LeBron James is the more talented player, with the main difference being that LeBron can do something in crunch time that Howard can’t do. Other than that, their games essentially balance each other out. Howard has more defensive impact, and LeBron has more offensive impact—even when you adjust for whom they are playing with. But when it comes down to it and you need a bucket to win the game, LeBron is the higher percentage option—that is, if he will take the shot. From the 2009 NBA Finals, we know that Howard is going to play up to his abilities in the series and during crunch time, even if that means just playing stellar defense. LeBron didn’t do that in 2011, and unfortunately, that’s like turning your homework in all year long and flunking the final exam. And as long as LeBron is a flunker, I can’t rate him ahead of Howard. Thus, in the most sissified decision ever made, I give you…
LeBron vs. Dwight Decision: PUSH

The post "NBA One on One: Dwight Howard vs. LeBron James" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-one-on-one-dwight-howard-vs-lebron-james-4626/feed/ 0 NBA One on One: A Look At ESPN’s NBARank http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-one-on-one-a-look-at-espns-nbarank-4616 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-one-on-one-a-look-at-espns-nbarank-4616#comments Wed, 02 Nov 2011 22:47:42 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4616 If you are a true fan of the NBA and the ESPN (and let’s face it, with the lockout and all, there are few of us left) then you and your friends had to be among the thousands of people screaming at ESPN’s Ranking of every single player in an NBA uniform. My friends and [...]

The post "NBA One on One: A Look At ESPN’s NBARank" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> If you are a true fan of the NBA and the ESPN (and let’s face it, with the lockout and all, there are few of us left) then you and your friends had to be among the thousands of people screaming at ESPN’s Ranking of every single player in an NBA uniform. My friends and [...]

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks, NBA
If you are a true fan of the NBA and the ESPN (and let’s face it, with the lockout and all, there are few of us left) then you and your friends had to be among the thousands of people screaming at ESPN’s Ranking of every single player in an NBA uniform.

My friends and I were among them, including a long-distance email chain that has since spurred what amounts to a 200-email conversation over whether Tony Parker is an elite point guard.

With arguments like that going on in my real life, I thought I would also bring those same conversations to my fake life: the internet! So from here on out, we are going to take ESPN Rankings (as well as some other sources) and compare some of the best players in the league against other players and see whether or not ESPN got the rankings right. That series of posts will be creatively named “NBA One on One.”

But before we do a deep dive into any two players, I wanted to give you all an overall feel, in “Five Points of Contention,” of how I (and some of my friends) feel about ESPN’s rankings.

Point of Contention #1: Is LeBron James the Best Player in the NBA?
After what happened to LeBron in the NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks, most people have moved away from calling LeBron James the best player in the NBA. However, when you’re trying to do an objective analysis of a player’s ability, it’s almost impossible to rank LeBron James anywhere but #1. ESPN analysts were asked to rank players based on their abilities on a scale from 1 to 10. You can’t give LeBron James a 9 and then give somebody else a 10, so it makes sense that he would be ranked #1. Even knowing how the grading was done though, I can’t excuse the rankings because the system was flawed. LeBron James can’t be deemed the best player in the NBA when on the biggest stage, he didn’t even show up.

A Friend’s Take: “LeBron James failed his final. Sure, he was talkative, diligent, and turned all of his homework in on time during the semester, but when you bomb the final, I can’t give you an “A” for effort.”

Point of Contention #2: Is Chris Paul (#4) actually better than Derrick Rose (#8)?
It’s actually a trickier question than one might have thought. Looking at the season as a whole last year, these two guys were actually pretty even in terms of what they produced. That being said, Paul’s team is a lot worst without him than the Bulls are without Rose. That did, however, swing a little more in Rose’s favor after the All-Star break, when Rose turned up his game a notch and Paul’s knee injury caused Paul to fall from his November and December performance. Thus, as it stands at this very point and time, Rose is the better player. But the argument for whom to take could easily come down to which type of point guard you want for your team, which makes this question even harder.

A Friend’s Take: “Derrick Rose was the MVP. Need I say more?”

Point of Contention #3: I love Time Duncan (#19), but he’s way too high.
Tim Duncan wasn’t Tim Duncan last season. He was just some old guy who would appear to have a lot of potential if he were 22 or 23 years old. At his advanced age, Duncan just isn’t going to be dominant player any more, no matter how fundamentally sound he is. He was very serviceable on the boards, which is why he will always have a starting job in this league, but his offense and defense are so mediocre now, that it’s impossible to justify saying that in league wide draft, any GM would take Duncan in the first round.

A Friend’s Take: “If Duncan is better than Zach Randolph (#20), how did the Spurs lose to Memphis in the first round?”

Point of Contention #4: Do people know who LaMarcus Aldridge (#23) is?
Playing in the Great Northwest really has cost Aldridge a lot of exposure and lot of advertising dollars. The man is far better than his #23 ranking would suggest. If you asked the Boston Celtics to trade Paul Pierce (#21), Kevin Garnett (#22) or Rajon Rondo (#17) for Aldridge, they pull the trigger on each of those three options, right? Aldridge was a beast this season, and he’s far better than Kevin Love (#16), who is only ranked that high because of his fraudulent double-double record.

A Friend’s Take: “Aldridge is the quintessential Matt Forte. He does a lot of different things well, and his “failure” to excel at one thing cost him “prestige” in the eyes of many NBA followers.”

Point of Contention #5: I hate to be that guy, but isn’t Dirk Nowitzki (#5) the best player in the NBA?
Ask yourself this question: if Dirk Nowtizki and LeBron James switch teams and perform the exact same way they did in the NBA Finals, don’t the Miami Heat win the championship instead of the Mavericks? I think so. So if Dirk could win the Finals with his cast of characters and then switch with LeBron and beat James with the Heat’s cast, that to me says that Dirk is the best player. This debate is actually how the whole “LeBron flunked the final” analogy came up. We know Dirk doesn’t usually do that well on tests throughout the semester, but on the standardized test that is the Finals, Dirk scored in the 99 percentile and LeBron was an average 70 percentile test taker at best. If the NBA Finals were the GMAT, Dirk would be at Harvard Business School and LeBron would be going to the business school at Clown College.

A Friend’s Take: “I can’t say Dirk is the best player in the NBA, but at this stagnant point in time when no NBA games are being played or have been played since Dirk hoisted up the trophy and the NBA MVP award, I have to say that Dirk is better than LeBron James.”

The post "NBA One on One: A Look At ESPN’s NBARank" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-one-on-one-a-look-at-espns-nbarank-4616/feed/ 0 Andrew Luck the next Manning? That’s up to the beholder http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/andrew-luck-the-next-manning-thats-up-to-the-beholder-4610 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/andrew-luck-the-next-manning-thats-up-to-the-beholder-4610#comments Sun, 30 Oct 2011 00:37:58 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4610 I’m comfortable enough with my sexuality to say whether another man looks good. And in covering sports, I see good looking people in-person and on my television screen all the time. The NFL hides all of their players’ faces, but in commercials and in-person, the good-lookers make themselves apparent. Adrian Peterson, Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady, [...]

The post "Andrew Luck the next Manning? That’s up to the beholder" was originally published at TSW.

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Andrew Luck's Face
I’m comfortable enough with my sexuality to say whether another man looks good. And in covering sports, I see good looking people in-person and on my television screen all the time. The NFL hides all of their players’ faces, but in commercials and in-person, the good-lookers make themselves apparent.

Adrian Peterson, Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Calvin Johnson and Braylon Edwards are among some of the more symmetrical faces in the NFL.

What you may notice is that some of the best players in the league are also really good looking people. Take for example, Brady, Peterson and Calvin Johnson—all are arguably the best at their respective positions, and all of them are good-looking men.

While some of their handsome qualities are the results of being in-shape, testosterone-filled men in their mid-20’s, the names I mentioned also have the key aesthetic that has been scientifically proven to be a prominent factor in assessing one’s attractiveness: facial symmetry.

So if some of the best players in the NFL are also some of the most handsome players in the NFL, is it fair to correlate attractiveness with athletic prowess in the league?

Maybe.

This brings me to Andrew Luck. Luck has been figuratively deemed the best thing since sliced bread, and literally labeled the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. But can he actually be all that great at quarterback without having the looks of an Adonis?

While Manning may not be considered a Tom Brady in the looks department, he still scores a 96 or better in facial symmetry, which is significantly higher than the average person. Luck, on the other hand, didn’t score so well on any online tests that I conducted. His scores were all in the 80’s, depending on the image I used (I used four in total).

Scientifically speaking, since I’m using two different tools to produce scores for Manning and Luck, this probably is not exactly a fair comparison. However, being that I am that confident in my sexuality, I don’t mind saying that Luck isn’t as pleasing to the eye as Peyton Manning. Come on now; you know you agree with me!

I present most of these measurements and assertions about players’ looks in jest, but seriously speaking, who is to say that good looks don’t affect a player’s ability to succeed at the quarterback position? They affect just about every other aspect of human life. So does it really stop when you get between the lines of sports?

It should. After all, sports are supposed to be the ultimate meritocracy. But even in the NFL, money, ratings, money, egos and money get in the way. And maybe there is a chance that Luck’s looks, or lack thereof, will affect how he plays, or is interpreted of playing, on Sundays in the NFL.

It sounds crazy, I know, but it’s not entirely impossible. When you think of the most successful quarterbacks of all-time, who do you think of? You go right to Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, John Elway, Joe Namath, Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman. All good looking dudes. And while it seems ridiculous to say the reason they were successful is because they look good, don’t you get the sense that there are just some guys out there who have it all? There are just beautiful people out there who get the brains, beauty and talent, and it shows in their work each and every day. In fact, it has been scientifically proven that “beautiful people” earn considerably more money than “non-beautiful” people.

Now, I know what you’re saying, for every good-looking Tom Brady out there that has three Super Bowl rings, there’s a Matt Leinart who can’t play dead—and I see your point. However, the same study that shows beautiful people earn more than non-beautiful people also stated that beautiful people are more likely to receive backlash in the workplace the second they appear not to be pulling their weight. Essentially, people with good-looks have certain expectations, both good and bad, and when their performance falls into the bad category, their good-looks start to count against them.

Again, it’s almost crazy for me to take the average working experience and bring it to the NFL, but for as much as we would like to say that success is determined Sundays on the football field, when you take into account draft position, leadership, money, likeability and character, there’s a lot of non-football stuff that goes into determining who gets a fair shot at succeeding and who doesn’t. Just about any football player will tell you that there are plenty of players out there not getting the chance they deserve.

But look, I’m the first person to tell you I don’t like discussing intangibles and love stats, so I’m saying most of this tongue-in-cheek. So I’m not suggesting that Luck is doomed because he doesn’t look good. Hell, there are plenty of Ugly Betty’s in football.

Nonetheless, based on a study done a couple of years ago, I’m not sure that any of the “non-beautiful” signal-callers start at quarterback, but that may or may not be a coincidence. Then again, before we go around saying that Luck has exhibited everything we have seen from the great quarterbacks, there is one thing missing. Is that one thing important? I don’t know, but I think we are going to find out in the years to come.

The post "Andrew Luck the next Manning? That’s up to the beholder" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/andrew-luck-the-next-manning-thats-up-to-the-beholder-4610/feed/ 0 The Unfair, Media-Induced Public Polarization of Tim Tebow http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/the-unfair-media-induced-public-polarization-of-tim-tebow-4603 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/the-unfair-media-induced-public-polarization-of-tim-tebow-4603#comments Tue, 25 Oct 2011 07:56:08 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4603 Why don’t you like Tim Tebow? He’s a nice guy, who has done far more good in the world than he has done bad–if he has ever done anything bad in his life. His coaches love him. His teammates love him. Hell, an entire subsection of Florida loves every morsel of his being. From winning [...]

The post "The Unfair, Media-Induced Public Polarization of Tim Tebow" was originally published at TSW.

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Tim Tebow
Why don’t you like Tim Tebow?

He’s a nice guy, who has done far more good in the world than he has done bad–if he has ever done anything bad in his life. His coaches love him. His teammates love him. Hell, an entire subsection of Florida loves every morsel of his being. From winning football games to saving kids lives overseas, Tebow is the personification of the modern-day do-gooder.

Why do you like Tim Tebow?

The man is far too perfect—suffocatingly perfect. He is one of the cockiest sons-of-bitches you will ever meet, and he seems to have very little self-awareness about this professional abilities. On top of that, he justifies a lot of what he does on his faith, and while admirable, it makes it impossible to know whether or not he actually knows what it is he is talking about sometimes.

What does it say about us a people that a guy like Tim Tebow is so polarizing? In this allegedly “post-race” society that we live in, aren’t we supposed to be better at accepting people for who they are? Shouldn’t we save our true disdain, dislike and displeasure for those that are a negative influence on us, our kids and the world as a whole?

Certainly, Tim Tebow is nothing but positive—so why the hate? Is it because we can’t handle his religious stance, even though we are supposed to be  a religion-tolerant people? We see this all the time outside of sports, where religious politicians on the right make the people on the left sick to their stomach, and where irreligious folks on the left make the right want to change the course of the country. But why bring that to sports?

Sport is supposed to be the ultimate meritocracy. Tebow’s fame is not supposed to rest on an overpowering religious stance that he more or less made public while he was in college. The way we judge him is supposed to be based on how he plays on the football field. And given that we have seen very little in the way of Tebow on a football field, I really do not see how on Earth people have made such definitive stances about Tebow.

But boy are there a lot of stances! There is a plethora of Tebow-apologists that think the world of Tebow. With their faith in his ability to play professional football lying squarely on what they saw him do at the University of Florida, Tebow fans have defended their loved one from Day 1 of the NFL draft. Fresh out of college, Tebow’s jersey was the #1 seller in all of football, and he hadn’t so much as stepped on to a football field yet.

Perhaps that’s why the haters exist though. In a sports world that is one of the closest things to a meritocracy we have in America, people hated to see Tebow praised as a pro before he had even made the roster. In their defense, Tebow had to be the most celebrated, pumped-up, exalted, cheered for, and publicized third-stringer in the history of the NFL, sports and the world. Needless to say, if you believe in sports being a meritocracy, you hate to see Tebow put on that pedestal before he had played a game.

What truly is amazing, in regards to Tim Tebow, is that most of the public falls into one camp or the other, and there is very little room in the public’s eye for nuance, concession or compromise. And I ask again, what does that say about us a as people?

Actually, it says five things about us…

1. We do not know how to separate the person from the profession. 

Is Tim Tebow for real? Is he really that nice of a guy? Is he really that religious? Was that infamous speech an emotional rally cry, or just some guy looking to get in front of the camera? Does Tebow really embody who I want my child to see as a role-model, or is he some guy that is bound to show his true colors down the road?

Those are the questions asked of Tebow on Google, in forums, on the radio and on message boards. But none of it has anything to do with why we know or care about Tebow. Sure, the next time I see Tebow running for the Senate, I will be sure to pull up a background check on his criminal history, but that should have nothing to do with how I, a man looking from thousands of miles and a world away, should be judging a football player. I know Tebow because he was a great quarterback at the University of Florida, not because he went on some mission to Asia and performed circumcisions. All the other stuff about Tebow is irrelevant to his profession and should not be tolerated by football, the media or the public.

But aye, there’s the rub. We as a people consistently make an assessment of a person’s job about more than the person’s performance. Call it nature, nurture or capitalism, but we see it in the workplace everyday. Complete idiots rise to positions of power merely because they talk a good game and fit into the ENTJ mold that businessmen are supposed to align with. I’m sure you have seen somebody get a promotion that they do not deserve, and I know you didn’t feel good about it. Or worse yet, you may have been passed up for a position because your work took a backseat to how somebody felt about you. How did that feel? I know it has happened to me.

So why do that to other people when we don’t want it done to ourselves? Who knows? That’s just yet another inconsistency of human behavior, and Tim Tebow is feeling the effects of it in the early stages of his career.

2. We let arrogance cloud our judgment of otherwise good people. 

So let’s assume that judging a person’s profession based on a person’s personality is just a part of life that we have come to accept. I’m actually okay with that. After all, there are some things that are always going to be a part of this world, like drunken guys who try corny pick-up lines on sober women in bars.

However, what I cannot accept is that with Tebow, we are letting some of his personal flaws outweigh his more positive traits. In particular, Tebow is a rather arrogant guy. He is not necessarily arrogant in an outlandish way, he just really believes in himself and in his team, and he refuses to surrender to facts that suggest that he or his team will fail.

And that irks a lot of people. Don’t get me wrong; it is easy to understand that people don’t like the guy that just can’t take “no” for an answer even when “no” is the only answer. But in the case of an athlete, isn’t that what we want? You don’t want to your favorite team’s quarterback going on to the field thinking that his 32nd-ranked passing offense cannot beat this week’s 1st-ranked secondary, do you? The hell you don’t. Because if he thought that, how on earth could he ever stand a chance?

But if for some reason, that damn athlete actually comes out of his mouth and verbalizes that arrogance, we get mad at him? That makes no sense. Damn the political-correctness. If an athlete is arrogant, naïve or supercilious when it comes to his profession, let it be that way. It’s freaking sports for crying out loud! It’s already a shame that we let things like flag pins, tradition or bad quotes get in the way of electing our presidents. So let’s please get out of this habit of letting someone’s attitude get in the way of judging an athlete, namely, Tim Tebow.

3. The media is not objective; not even on their best day.

I sit here before you today, a quasi-member of the media. And as such, I still have no problem saying that we are not objective. Objectivity has boundaries, requirements and associations that the media can only wish it partook in. For example, CNN is supposed to be the most objective news entity on television. However, in their quest to be objective, they let both sides (left and right) say their peace, no matter how ludicrous one side may be. So even if the right is standing up for what’s good and pure, and the left is lying and propagandizing, CNN still allows each side to have their equal say and analyzes the validity in each statement. In a world where objectivity is defined as an “external reality,” CNN’s approach to objectivity does not hold up.

And neither does that of ESPN, Yahoo, Fox Sports or NBC Sports. They all have their columnists, their reporters and TV gas bags that say and do things so far out of the realm of objectivity that it puts any analysis of anything ambiguous into question. From covering sexual assault charges to matters of race, or even when those two topics intertwine, it’s hard to sit back and see any of those sports reporting entities as being purely objective.

It makes sense though. The media is run by people, and as I mentioned before, people are inconsistent. So when one media entity feels one way about Tebow, and another entity feels the opposite way, it’s clear that no one is being objective. As we sit here today, a day after Tebow proved both his critics and his believers right in some of the worst 57 minutes of football ever played in a win, we can’t dare cry that the media is being objective. To feel one way or another about Tebow’s performance, a reporter would likely have to rely on his incoming feelings about Tebow. That inherently makes their assessment of yesterday’s game subjective, and while that may be unavoidable, it’s that lack of objectivity that makes Tebow the polarizing figure that he is.

4. Football players are forever and always, an inconsistent body representative of the nation as a whole. 

If people are inconsistent, players are crazy. Forget about the fact football players do not mind running into each at the fastest speeds possible, knocking each other, suffering concussions and broken bones, but then are afraid of heights, dogs, needles or women, but they have other more pronounced inconsistencies as well.

Take for example the fact that most athletes will admit that some players cannot handle the pivotal moments of game-ending situations, however, you can’t find a single athlete worth his paycheck to say that they have ever succumb to the moment in the 4th quarter of a close game.

Carry that inconsistency over to Tebow, and you have what we have today, players on the Broncos roster polarized by Tebow’s play. Brandon Lloyd got traded out of Denver because he was so against having Tebow in a as a starter, yet some of his teammates love everything Tebow represents as a player and a person. And last year, Broncos General Manager John Elway would have led you to believe that Tebow was where this team was headed entering this NFL season, then they started Kyle Orton in Week 1. Now we enter NFL Week 8, and the players on Denver remain divided. It’s one thing for the media and the fans to be confused, but for the players, the coaches and the GM to be that close to the situation and still not be in agreement, it makes you wonder how fair we all are in our assessment of Tebow.

5. We do not believe in meritocracy unless we are talking about ourselves. 

It sounds crazy that I am sitting here pointing out the flaws in myself and human behavior to show why a one-week removed third-string quarterback is being unfairly upheld and criticized. At the end of the day, Tebow’s polarizing stature is the result of limited data. Once the data set grows, we will get a better sense of who he is, and the consensus will either be that he is a winner or he is a loser.

Even once the data is in, why do we find it so easy to judge an athlete, even when the data is in our favor? It could be because we as individuals constantly feel judged, and we find it easy to cast aspersions about an athlete that is used to the public light, even though we do not know that person.

But let’s say Tebow turns out to be a sub-.500 quarterback, his completion percentage is barely average and he never even sniffs 3,000 yards in his next 16 starts, some people would still stand behind him and say that he deserves more chances.

On the flip side, if Tebow was an out-right winner, with mediocre stats in the 1st through 3rd quarters, but won his team games late, many people would accuse him of being limited, lucky and incapable of consistency.

It’s called confirmation bias. No matter what the situation is, if the stats allow for an out, people will find an out that backs up their viewpoint—after all, who can’t lie with statistics these days?

In a true meritocracy, there is no room for debate as to who the better performer is. In sales, if you sale the most, you win salesman of the year. In school, the kid with most correct answers on the multiple choice test sets the curve. And obstetrics, the obstetrician that delivers the most and healthiest babies wins obstetrician of the year. At lest 2 out of 3 of those are right. But you get my point!

Our sports are supposed to be the ultimate meritocracy too, right? Everyone wants to play their best players, don’t they? Unless of course the season is over and you want the #1 pick in the draft. Unless of course, you have a senior on the team and there is sophomore that’s only a tad bit worst than him. Unless of course the shortstop’s dad is the coach of the little league team. Unless of course, you invested a lot in that free agent, even if he isn’t working out for you. Unless of course—you get my drift.

And let’s not even talk about the fact when we don’t really know who the better player is.

My point is that even in a meritocracy, the better player doesn’t always get the start, and sometimes, we don’t even know who the better player is. As fans, there are few circumstances where should not be rooting for the better player to get the chance, as if we were ever being pitted against someone else for an opportunity, we definitely want the meritocracy to win out in the assessment of us.

So why did Denver fans cry for Tebow in preseason even though we know Kyle Orton is better?

It’s an inconsistency, but it’s who we are. We want to be judged based on our merits, but we don’t mind playing politics, future and nuance with other people’s lives. The people who want to judge Tebow on his merits probably aren’t saying too much of anything right now, which leaves those prejudging the young quarterback to take the stage. With the public’s inconsistencies, the media’s lack of data, confirmation bias and the ever-present subjugation of athletes, Tebow had become the most polarizing, third-stringer in the history of sports. And thanks to the people who made Tebow a topic of discussion in a debate that he had no business being in at this point in his career, Tebow is now the most polarizing first-string quarterback in the NFL.

The post "The Unfair, Media-Induced Public Polarization of Tim Tebow" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/the-unfair-media-induced-public-polarization-of-tim-tebow-4603/feed/ 0 Is Being An NFL Coach What It Used to Be? http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/is-being-an-nfl-coach-what-it-used-to-be-4597 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/is-being-an-nfl-coach-what-it-used-to-be-4597#comments Tue, 18 Oct 2011 10:00:56 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4597 All my life growing up, I wanted to be an NFL coach. My best friend and I spent countless hours playing Madden in what can only be considered an unhealthy fashion. From playing complete dynasties, limiting ourselves to only fair trades and spending entire Summer mornings, afternoons and evenings lodged between the couch and Playstation, [...]

The post "Is Being An NFL Coach What It Used to Be?" was originally published at TSW.

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Jon Gruden

Gruden, seemingly steps away from football by signing a 5-year deal with ESPN.

All my life growing up, I wanted to be an NFL coach. My best friend and I spent countless hours playing Madden in what can only be considered an unhealthy fashion. From playing complete dynasties, limiting ourselves to only fair trades and spending entire Summer mornings, afternoons and evenings lodged between the couch and Playstation, we took the playing of Madden to a level beyond that of kids just out to have fun. We wanted to learn the game of football in a way that would make us bona fide candidates for NFL coaching positions some where down the line.

In my friend’s defense, he is out coaching football right now. He’s a wide receiver coach down in Texas, where football means more to people than energy and oil. He’s got dreams of moving up the ranks, coaching in college then in the pros, and I am as sure as day that he will one day achieve his—our—dreams.

But here I am, writing about football instead of coaching it. While I love the aspect of coaching, leading and being around the game of football all day and everyday, writing, content and business were things I loved to do well before I ever picked up that first game of Madden or strapped on my first set of shoulder pads. So even though coaching has long been one of my dreams, I do not regret where it is that I sit today.

And I’ve been offered the chance to coach, but over the years of playing college football and being behind the scenes of the NFL at CBS Sports, my adulation of the coaching profession isn’t what it once was. Again, I assure, I love it, and there aren’t many things I would put before a career as an NFL head coach, but it doesn’t stand where it used to for me. The profession just doesn’t seem to be what it once was.

I take it that Jon Gruden feels the same way. He took yet another extension from ESPN, one that is said to keep him alongside “everybody’s favorite” Mike Tirico and the rest of the Monday Night Football crew for the next five years. Now, Gruden’s decision to take the money is not all that surprising given his track record. But if freaking Gruden is willing to stay out of the game for five years, or at least verbally agree to do so, what does that say about the luster of the head coaching career in the NFL?

Perhaps it’s the roster of coaches that has taken away from what it means to be a head coach in the league. Several teams have gone the route of hiring lesser-known, lesser-accomplished head coaches to head their football squads as a way to save money. Now, I’m the last guy to say that paying the high-profile, big-name head coach is the way to go, but I’m certainly not advocating not hiring the high-profile guy for the sole purpose of saving money.

But that’s what’s happening in today’s league. Teams do not want to relinquish the money and/or power it takes to get a proven head coach. That probably has a lot do with why guys like Jon Gruden, Bill Billick, Bill Cowher and Marty Schottenheimer are sitting on the sideline. Instead, those big names have been replaced by guys we have never heard of, such as Jim Schwartz, Raheem Morris and Tony Sparano. Those guys have had and are having varying degrees of success that in no way can be correlated with their level of “prestige,” but one still has to wonder that if a preponderance of no-names are getting jobs, will the profession hold its current level of stature? Or is it too late?

Who are the biggest names in coaching right now?

You have the Super Bowl winners in Bill Belichick, Mike Shanahan, Mike Tomlin, Tom Coughlin and Sean Payton. You have the long-tenured guys like Andy Reid and Lovie Smith. Then after that, you have a bunch of guys out of left field, which for all intents and purposes, are as good as the aforementioned names, but their lack of proven success certainly does take away from the cache of the profession.

Fans don’t respect a guy who has never won before. Fans don’t buy tickets and watch games for a coach they have never heard of. It’s a fact, and its why some big name franchises are always willing to pay for the big name. Take the San Francisco 49ers. They could have easily saved money by going with a young, unproven head coach, but instead, they made Jim Harbaugh, successful in college but not in the NFL, one of the highest paid coaches in football. Proven? No. Big name? Yes. And it’s those kinds of signings that, if not productive, at least keep the NFL head coaching phenomenon interesting.

Cache aside, who needs the trouble? Part of reasoning behind not moving towards the head coaching profession at this time in my life is that it requires taking on a lot of unneeded stress. Call me crazy, but there’s no reason that anyone should have to lock themselves up in a film room for 6 nights of the week. That to me is going way past the tipping point, where one will only see diminishing results. I’m sure Gruden would agree that the stress and work load was way too high for a profession that really doesn’t have as much control over the outcome as one would come to think.

And that brings me to my last point, how much control does a head coach really have over a game? Don’t get me wrong, I still respect the coaching profession enough to say that coaching has a say in who wins and loses an NFL football game, but it is not as big of a “say” as it once seemed to be.

In the late 90’s and early part of this century, it would seem that a coach who put in place a sound defense and a an offense that took care of the ball could bludgeon his way to a 10 to 14-win season and compete for a Super Bowl. But that’s not the case in today’s NFL. If you don’t have Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or one of the Mannings at quarterback, good night and good luck. Yeah, you could get away with a young Ben Roethlisberger in 2006, but just 5 years later, even Big Ben was tossing the ball all over the field to get his team to the Super Bowl—and naturally, he lost to the more talented quarterback with a lesser team.

My point is that talent prevails in this league. As much as I still want to believe the old say, “He’ll take his and beat yours, and take yours and beat his,” I don’t know how true that is. Even Bill Belichick hasn’t won a damn playoff game five seasons, and he is supposed to be the best head coach out there. What does that say about the overall effect of the position?

Do I, and millions of others, still dream of the day when they can be a head coach in the NFL? Sure. But is it as enticing as it once was. I don’t think so. We’re losing talented individuals like Gruden and Cowher to television, and I don’t see how one can say the profession is at its highest levels when that is the case. Just imagine, if we’re losing enthusiasts like Gruden, imagine all of the smart minds out there with options that are choosing different routes.

While a loss in coaching capital isn’t exactly like having a shortage of public school teachers, the NFL could suffer is all we have left is the cookie-cutter guys that are afraid to challenge the norms, be different and pioneer new ways of coaching in the same manner that the greats did before them.

So be weary. With a new agreement with ESPN, today we lost Gruden. Maybe tomorrow we lose Cowher and Schottenheimer forever. Then in the days, weeks, months and years that follow, perhaps we lose the next Belichick, Madden, or Jimmy Johnson. Then where will be. Sure, the nature of the NFL is such that much like there will some day be another Peyton Manning or Tom Brady; there will also be another Jimmy Johnson or Belichick. But how many of those and how often they come by is important, and if the decisions of Gruden, Cowher and Johnson say anything about the state of NFL coaching, perhaps our talent pools has shrunk beyond belief.

The post "Is Being An NFL Coach What It Used to Be?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/is-being-an-nfl-coach-what-it-used-to-be-4597/feed/ 0 The Baseball Playoffs and the Randomness of it All http://thesportswatchers.com/mlb/the-baseball-playoffs-and-the-randomness-of-it-all-4592 http://thesportswatchers.com/mlb/the-baseball-playoffs-and-the-randomness-of-it-all-4592#comments Thu, 06 Oct 2011 09:08:28 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4592 There’s not a dog day in summer that goes by in which somebody does not mention the fact that baseball is the only sport that deems going 3 for 10, or 30%, a success. That propensity for failure is what makes the sport so random, so unpredictable, and sometimes, so unfair. But let’s take it [...]

The post "The Baseball Playoffs and the Randomness of it All" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: News Flash: Andy Pettitte Is Not A Hero!. ]]> There’s not a dog day in summer that goes by in which somebody does not mention the fact that baseball is the only sport that deems going 3 for 10, or 30%, a success. That propensity for failure is what makes the sport so random, so unpredictable, and sometimes, so unfair. But let’s take it [...]

minnesota-twins
There’s not a dog day in summer that goes by in which somebody does not mention the fact that baseball is the only sport that deems going 3 for 10, or 30%, a success. That propensity for failure is what makes the sport so random, so unpredictable, and sometimes, so unfair.

But let’s take it beyond the .300 average that is deemed great. Let’s look at the end result. This past season, one of the best regular season teams of the past several years, was this year’s 2011 Philadelphia Phillies. They won 102 games, had a run differential 100 runs higher than any other team in the National League, and because of their league low ERA, they were the best road team in the Majors.

What did all of that buy them? A 63-point winning percentage.

Now, I don’t know where you went to school, but in most parts of the baseball viewing world, 63% is about as close to failing as you can get without actually flunking out. When you think about it, 63% really isn’t that far away from 50%. Who doesn’t like their chances of flipping a coin and getting 6 heads on 10 flips? Well, that’s essentially the equivalent of what the best baseball team in the majors did this season. In some schools, the grade-point average derived from a 63% success rate would get you suspended from the baseball team—kind of ironic, no?

Now let’s take a look at the other side of the coin—no pun intended.

The worst baseball team in the majors this year was Houston. The Astros won a paltry 56 games, which is historically bad. So, for both the sake of statistical relevancy and my argument, let’s take a look at the second worst team in baseball, the Minnesota Twins.

Destroyed by injuries and a catcher that just didn’t play up to his expectations, the Twins managed to win just 63 games in 2011. They were as horrible at home as they were on the road, and according to run differential, they actually were worse than the aforementioned Astros.

However, those 63 wins translate into a 39% winning percentage. That’s 24-percentage points less than that of the Philadelphia Phillies. While a 24-percentage point difference is considerable in many realms, it’s a weird differentiation in the vacuum of winning sports games, and even in winning baseball games.

In the NFL, if the Detroit Lions go on to win just 24% more of there games than the worst team in the league, an way too kind, hypothetical, undefeated Lions team would have 16 wins to the hypothetically worse Miami Dolphins, which would have a record of 12-4.

In the NBA, the Chicago Bulls won 62 games. If the worst team in the NBA were only 24-percentage points worse, they would win 42 games, which is typically good enough to make the playoffs—although, not in a scenario where they are the worst team in the league, obviously.

In baseball though, that’s the difference. A mere 24 percentage points separates the best team in baseball from the worst team in baseball, when defined by run differential. Based on those winning percentages, the Twins have 25% chance of winning a single game against the Phillies. While 1 in 4 isn’t great, it’s certainly worth a “gamble,” and far more likely to happen than the improbable or unbelievable scenarios we sometimes see in sports.

Let’s take that to the playoffs. In a five-game series, the Astros chances of winning are 30%. That means that nearly 1 in 3 times, the worst team in baseball could be expected to knock out the best team in baseball. And it’s stats like that which just make this whole damn sport a random crapshoot—excuse the redundancy.

So if the Twins have a 30% chance of winning a series against the Phillies, one can imagine what the chances were that the Cardinals would win this series before it started. Then you can surmise how likely it was that the Texas Rangers would beat the Tampa Bay Rays, or that the heavily favored New York Yankees would lose to the Detroit Tigers.

In a sport where the difference between the best team and worst team is a mere 24 percentage points thought, that’s what you get. You get randomness. Teams we think are really good, aren’t really that good in comparison, because the teams that are bad, aren’t that far behind them. If baseball were to let bad teams like the Twins, Pirates and Orioles in the playoffs, who knows how many upsets we would see? The damn randomness of it all could put the postseason in a tailspin, which is why opening MLB playoffs to more teams is a tad bit ridiculous.

Don’t confuse randomness for parity though. Parity is when the tables turn, teams get better, other teams get worse, and the odds of winning change. Because of its lack of a salary cap, baseball doesn’t have parity. Baseball clubs don’t bubble up all that often, and the best teams, the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Phillies and the Angels, are usually good year after year.

The reason baseball has had so many different champions in comparison to the other sports is that when a team gets into the playoffs; its chances of winning a single series are much higher than we inherently give that team credit for. Nobody should be surprised by the Twins beating the Phillies in the first round of the postseason, because as I mentioned, there’s a 30% chance of that happening. Being surprised by that is like dropping your draw when Michael Jordan makes a three-pointer—it’s really not all that surprising!

The randomness of the baseball postseason is what it is. It makes for great television, and we can shoot down the big dogs an awful lot. Fact is that when it comes to baseball, there are no guarantees. For a sport full of stats, analysis and projections, all it really amounts to in strategy is calling a bluff or not calling a bluff in poker. It’s random, managers are guessing, and the whole damn thing can change with a whim. It’s why we love it, and it’s probably why purists don’t want teams like the Twins getting an extra shot at making the playoffs.

The post "The Baseball Playoffs and the Randomness of it All" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/mlb/the-baseball-playoffs-and-the-randomness-of-it-all-4592/feed/ 0 NBA Lockout: What Are the Agents Out To Get? http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-lockout-what-are-the-agents-out-to-get-4588 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-lockout-what-are-the-agents-out-to-get-4588#comments Thu, 06 Oct 2011 05:58:01 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4588 The NBA lockout is at full gear now. Once you reach a point where business men begin finger-pointing, you know the talks are heating up. And we definitively reached the point of finger-pointing a couple days ago, when NBA commissioner David Stern literally pointed a finger at Dwyane Wade. Wade admonished Stern for doing so, [...]

The post "NBA Lockout: What Are the Agents Out To Get?" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: KnicksDigest: Knicks Win In the Clutch. ]]> The NBA lockout is at full gear now. Once you reach a point where business men begin finger-pointing, you know the talks are heating up. And we definitively reached the point of finger-pointing a couple days ago, when NBA commissioner David Stern literally pointed a finger at Dwyane Wade. Wade admonished Stern for doing so, [...]

David Stern and Dwyane Wade
The NBA lockout is at full gear now. Once you reach a point where business men begin finger-pointing, you know the talks are heating up.

And we definitively reached the point of finger-pointing a couple days ago, when NBA commissioner David Stern literally pointed a finger at Dwyane Wade. Wade admonished Stern for doing so, and let him know exactly how he felt about being treated like a child.

This my friends, represents the most interesting story to come out of the NBA lockout thus far.

Having said that, it will only get better. The fact is that some of the NBA’s teams are losing money at a rapid pace. Operating losses for as many as a third of the teams are being reported, and many of those teams would lose far fewer dollars if there was no NBA season than if they agreed to a deal that resembled the current revenue sharing agreement.

That really puts the owners in the best position. When financially speaking, it is better to sit the season out than embark on another season where the revenues aren’t in your favor; it’s very hard to negotiate with you. The players are quickly realizing that, and you can kind of see the tides turning. The players are turning against one another, as their agents have seemingly taken a definitive stance, and NBA Player reps like Derek Fisher have already had to go out of their way to admonish agents’ actions and intentions.

One has to wonder though, why are the agents going out of their way to get involved in these labor talks? They have asked, or at least hinted at, the players union decertifying as a means to put pressure on the owners. The NBA players’ rep, Billy Hunter, seemingly wants little to do with that, since he would then lose power, and he doesn’t have the same unified backing that the NFL Players rep, DeMaurice Smith, had going into the NFLPA’s decertification.

The player’s agents also wrote a letter telling players to refuse any deal that would relinquish any part of the 57% of revenue they currently receive. Meanwhile, David Stern and the NBA are doing their best to negotiate at 46% revenue split. The NBA agents have to know that at 57% revenue split just isn’t going to happen. As I mentioned, the NBA owners have no reason to play a season this year if such a deal were to happen. So unless the NBA agents are intent on seeing their clients lose a full year of salary, there is no way that their real intent is to have the players strive for nothing less than 57% of revenue.

The NBA agents could, however, see an opportunity for a power grab. Billy Hunter has always been on somewhat shaky ground during his tenure as the head of the NBPA. He doesn’t have the cache that DeMaurice Smith has, and he has made some huge concessions over the years, including the age-requirement. Thus, it’s reasonable to believe that the NBA agents want to get Hunter out of the way. Intrinsically, he doesn’t bother the daily activities of agents, but a lack of leadership at the top, coupled with decertification, would allow the agents to get involved in the negotiation process, while also giving them a chance to put their stamp on this collective bargaining deal.

Of course, the agents’ stance could also be a move to put their foot in the ground on the stance that the NBA owners will fold. After all, losing one season is not big deal if you were going to lose money, but losing 1.5 to 2 seasons, starts to eat away at the value of franchises, and in turn, the wealth of the owners. It’s hard to believe that NBA agents could be so farsighted in a business where their players have relatively short careers, but if there goal really is to continue to have 57% of the revenue go to the players, then a prolonged lockout is about the only way that ever begins to happen.

Whatever their motives, the NBA lockout has now become about more than just players and owners, now the agents seemingly have an agenda that has to be accounted for and reported on. As much as you would like to assume they have the interests of their players in mind, one can only imagine what opportunities lay for them on the shaky ground that is the NBA’s current foundation.

The post "NBA Lockout: What Are the Agents Out To Get?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-lockout-what-are-the-agents-out-to-get-4588/feed/ 0 Romo Was Great, But Leader Guy He Isn’t http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/romo-was-great-but-leader-guy-he-isnt-4584 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/romo-was-great-but-leader-guy-he-isnt-4584#comments Thu, 29 Sep 2011 13:16:31 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4584 When it was 3rd and 21 in last week’s Monday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins, Tony Romo came through for his team, when he ran away from the blitz to create enough time for his injured receiver to break open from the not so steel-curtain defense of cornerback Deangelo Hall. [...]

The post "Romo Was Great, But Leader Guy He Isn’t" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> When it was 3rd and 21 in last week’s Monday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins, Tony Romo came through for his team, when he ran away from the blitz to create enough time for his injured receiver to break open from the not so steel-curtain defense of cornerback Deangelo Hall. [...]

Tony Romo
When it was 3rd and 21 in last week’s Monday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins, Tony Romo came through for his team, when he ran away from the blitz to create enough time for his injured receiver to break open from the not so steel-curtain defense of cornerback Deangelo Hall.

It was a great play for Romo, one that will go down as one of his most courageous. And given that he had jacked up ribs and no receivers around him, the entire game can viewed as somewhat of a “legend-maker” for Romo.

But that’s only if he ever becomes a legend. When I text messaged my Dallas Cowboys fan for a brother after Romo made that play, he promptly exclaimed that very fact, that Romo was indeed headed for legendary status and that this game was the first step towards it. I quickly reminded my brother that in front of Tony Romo, in the line for legendary status, is both Eli Manning and Trent Dilfer—and they have lawn chairs on hand.

That’s not to say Romo isn’t a better talent than both of those guys, because he certainly is. But do you know really is a legend? Tom Brady. John Elway. Joe Montana. Peyton Manning. Those guys are legends, and Tony Romo is no Peyton Manning.

In fact, there was a great example of just how un-legendary and how un-Manning-like Romo really is. Down on the goal line, the game on the line, and the Cowboys looking for their first touchdown of the game, Romo had inexperienced receivers that didn’t seem to know the formations or the routes. And on 3rd and goal, faced with having to score a touchdown or kick yet another field goal, the play resulted in Romo mis-throwing a receiver who ran the wrong route.

Now, for any normal quarterback, that is perfectly understandable, and I do not fault Romo in the least for his receivers failing to run the right routes throughout the entirety of the game. After all, he’s been out all week, likely placing an entire cow on his ribs for the last few days, he shouldn’t also be tasked with having to teach his receivers the finer art of—well, receiving.

Or should he?

As faultless as Romo is for his receivers’ lack of knowledge, that crap never happens to Peyton Manning. Sure, he and a receiver will have a miscommunication from time to time, Peyton will throw a hissy-fit in front of the camera, and 9 times out of 10, it was probably Peyton who was right. But that doesn’t happen 10 or 12 times a game like it did to Romo the other night, and believe me, Manning has had his fair share of injured receivers. Yet for some reason, when you throw an Austin Collie, a Pierre Garcon, an Anthony Gonzalez and a Jacob Tamme in front of Peyton Manning, they don’t just run the right routes, they become all-world wide receivers.

That’s what makes Manning, and his other peers, legends and so-called “leader guys.” They actually lead their receivers not just to wins, but to performances beyond their means. Dan LeBatard always jokes that if you lined up a shopping cart at tight end and had the left tackle give it a push down the field at the start of every play, Manning would make the shopping cart a 1,000 yard receiver. On the flip-side, Romo would yell, scream and embarrass the shopping cart 12 times per game, throw an interception in the direction of the shopping cart, and lose the game.

Am I being unfair? Not really. Again, it’s not Romo’s fault that his best receivers that night were injured, and the remaining ones didn’t know how to play football. But the great ones, the ones that demonstrate true leadership, make others rise to their level of excellence. It’s why Rob Grownkoski is the best fantasy football option in the world right now, and it’s why Jordy Nelson is practically Pro Bowl bound. Their quarterbacks make lesser plays better players, and they do it over a season, during the playoffs, or even in as small a sample size as a one-game spin-off, in which all other 10 starters have been stricken by the 3 hour flu just before kickoff.

That’s not what Romo does. It’s not what he did Monday Night. What Romo did Monday night was single-handedly get a victory, despite everybody around him messing up. But that’s not what the great quarterbacks do. That’s not what the Hall of Fame quarterbacks do. With those guys, you can’t tell that they are doing all of the heavy lifting, because the demand the best out of everyone around them, and the lackluster crap that went on with Romo’s receivers on Monday night is not something you see Brady and Manning dealing with throughout an entire game—ever.

But big ups to Romo. He came through Monday night. He is a great quarterback, one of the top 10 in the league. But legend? Hall of Famer? Leader guy? Peyton Manning? Those things he is not.

The post "Romo Was Great, But Leader Guy He Isn’t" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/romo-was-great-but-leader-guy-he-isnt-4584/feed/ 1 Zo Knows: Mike Vick Is Not a Victim http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-mike-vick-is-not-a-victim-4577 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-mike-vick-is-not-a-victim-4577#comments Mon, 26 Sep 2011 17:59:13 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4577 If it sounds like I went for a play on words in the title, let me assure you that I didn’t. I’m neither clever nor funny enough to pull off such a pun, even one as bad and as obvious as that one. The title of my piece merely speaks to how I feel about [...]

The post "Zo Knows: Mike Vick Is Not a Victim" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> If it sounds like I went for a play on words in the title, let me assure you that I didn’t. I’m neither clever nor funny enough to pull off such a pun, even one as bad and as obvious as that one. The title of my piece merely speaks to how I feel about [...]

Mike Vick Press Conference
If it sounds like I went for a play on words in the title, let me assure you that I didn’t. I’m neither clever nor funny enough to pull off such a pun, even one as bad and as obvious as that one. The title of my piece merely speaks to how I feel about Michael Vick’s post game comments yesterday, following the Philadelphia Eagles 29-16 loss to the New York Giants.

“I felt I got hit late. No flag…At some point something catastrophic is going to happen. Not to blame the refs, but more precautions should be taken. I’m on the ground all the time in the pocket… I’m on the ground getting hit in the head and I don’t why… I don’t get the 15-yard flags like everybody else. Buy hey, I’m not going to complain about it. I’m just making everybody aware of it. Hopefully, somebody will take notice.” – Michael Vick after the Eagles loss on Sunday.

It’s an obvious joke, but I would hate to see what Vick says when he actually starts to complain. Truth is, Mike Vick does get hit a lot in the pocket. And I’m even to willing to admit that defenses get away with a little bit more than they do against the league’s other premiere quarterbacks. But the correlations Vick is presumably hinting at aren’t true, and there are only two things Vick could possibly be hinting at as reasons for his lack of penalty drawing: his mobility and race.

Oh yeah, I brought out the race card, but I will get back to that in a second.

Before I get killed for going into Vick’s mind, digging around a little, diving past the dog killings and the late-night prison mopping with Tink-Tink, and presuming that he’s pointing at something about him that makes referees less likely to call a penalty in his favor let me just say this: of course that’s what he’s doing!

Vick didn’t go to the podium to complain about not getting flags because he thinks its the luck of the draw, or that some kind of randomness was the reason he was getting hit late. No! He complained about not getting the flags that “everybody else” is getting, because he believes that there is something about him that is different from everybody else that causes referees to keep the flags in their pockets. Now, whether Vick has identified that in his own mind, I have no idea. But even if he hasn’t, I have no problem saying that the reason he thinks he has not gotten a fair shake is because something about him is different from everybody else. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by saying that, but every now and then, you have to check the strength of the branch you walk out on.

So what does differentiate Vick from other quarterbacks that might cause him not get a flag that he deserves? We can toss out the dog killing. As much as that would be a viable excuse in other walks of life and million-dollar professions, it doesn’t work in the NFL. Vick is considered one of the players NFL athletes would most want on their team, and the league is making a considerable amount off of them. Even with referees, I find it hard to believe that they could make moral stances on Vick but let the women-beaters, drunk drivers and drug pushers off easy.

So the felony card is out.

ESPN's White Michael Vick

ESPN's "White Vick" - http://es.pn/qMl4bq

Then there’s everybody’s favorite card in the deck…the race card! In case you didn’t know it, Mike Vick is black. Of course, this picture from ESPN might suggest otherwise. Truth be told, I can’t even discuss the hypothetical of Mike Vick getting flagged for being black with a straight face. All I can think of is every other joke I have ever heard about being ticketed for “driving while black,” and those jokes actually some credibility with them. I also go back to the studies that once suggested that NBA referees were more likely to call fouls against certain players because of their race. While such a study and ensuing conclusion does lend some sense of plausibility to the idea of Vick not getting calls because race, it’s hard to compare NBA referees to NFL referees, who use a lot more collaboration in penalty-calling. I will say this, as Mark Cuban pointed out in response to the aforementioned NBA study of referees, everyone has prejudices, and a hit against Vick were late or on time by milliseconds, maybe the judgment call does go against him because of his race. But how many “close call” situations is Vick really getting into?

Actually, that was a trick a question. Vick is getting into a lot of close-call situations, and that my friend, is the difference between Vick and “everybody else,” and it’s why he doesn’t get all of the flags that the other quarterbacks are getting.

Vick likes to run. And because he can run, he holds on to the football longer than other quarterbacks. And because he can escape the grasp of defenders with his speed and leg strength, he absorbs and plays through hits that his peers cannot. As a result of having the football in his hands longer and escaping defenders, Vick leaves himself open to more blows to the body.

It’s not rocket science. You hold the ball longer, you expose yourself to more blows. If you’re Peyton Manning, who gets rid of the ball before the defensive end can come out of his stance, you get hit less. And when you have the quick release of Matthew Stafford, the time between your letting go of the football and the defender falling at your legs is that much greater, and the referee does not have to make as many judgment calls as he does with a guy with a slower release who holds on to the football, i.e., Michael Vick.

But Vick isn’t the only one who falls victim to holding on to the ball, playing Houdini and having a slower release. Ben Roethlisberger takes more hits because of that, Aaron Rodgers gets blown up a lot, and Steve Young was the record holder for getting blown up as a quarterback. But the common thread there isn’t that they are all black, because obviously they aren’t. The common thread is that they are all mobile guys who extend plays. And when you extend a play you extend yourself to more hits. Now do referees subconsciously give defenders a little slack against quarterbacks who move around a lot?

Clearly they do. But who can blame them?

Referees can’t go around throwing penalty flags on judgment call after judgment call throughout the entirety of NFL games. It would slow the game down and put the game in the hands of the referee. It’s far better to swallow the whistle on a judgment call than to blow it and risk calling something you didn’t see.

Thus, the only thing Vick is victim to is the competitive spirit that I’m sure he’s in favor of. If Vick were playing football in the neighborhood park, a hit that’s half a second late doesn’t get called, and he would call “foul” if somebody called out that late hit against him. Close, ticky-tack penalties are seen as cowardly and against the competitive spirit of the game, and it’s up to referees to maintain that competitive spirit, while keeping within in the blurred boundaries of the rues. And as much as I would rather see Vick on the field than off it, you can’t play quarterback the way he does and expect to be treated like the quarterback he is not.

The post "Zo Knows: Mike Vick Is Not a Victim" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-mike-vick-is-not-a-victim-4577/feed/ 0 Zo Knows: Football Storylines – NFL Week 1 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-football-storylines-nfl-week-1-4570 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-football-storylines-nfl-week-1-4570#comments Fri, 09 Sep 2011 12:44:19 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4570 Football season is back! How many times have you read that? Hell, if you haven’t read it, you have definitely seen and heard it. Even the NFL is excited about football being back. For the first time in a long time, they have run a season opening marketing campaign that has some semblance of creativity [...]

The post "Zo Knows: Football Storylines – NFL Week 1" was originally published at TSW.

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Aaron Rodgers
Football season is back!

How many times have you read that?

Hell, if you haven’t read it, you have definitely seen and heard it. Even the NFL is excited about football being back. For the first time in a long time, they have run a season opening marketing campaign that has some semblance of creativity to it—albeit, not much. If the commercial doesn’t do it for you, how about the opening week games we have to start the season?

The NFL schedule for this weekend’s slate of games includes the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets, and of course, the New Orleans Saints and the Super Bowl winning Green Bay Packers.

Sports would not be sports if it were just about the games though. The opening week of football marks the point when interns become full-timers, the inexperienced become experienced, the experienced hit a crossroads, and where crossroads spit out legends and busts.

So what storylines are we exploring in Week 1 and throughout the 2011 NFL schedule? That’s what we will cover in each and every edition of “Zo Knows Football Storylines.”

Is the being a black quarterback a moot point yet?

Cam Newton, starter. Michael Vick, starter. Josh Freeman, starter. Tarvaris Jackson, starter. Donovan McNabb, starter. Jason Campbell, starter. David Garrard was a starter a few hours before I started writing this article. If Vince Young hadn’t shown some troublesome signs, he would be a starter. And if JaMarcus Russell gave two, flying you-know-whats, perhaps he would have a home somewhere in the NFL.

I ran down that list of starting, black quarterbacks not to say that we have achieved some type of quota by having a little more than a handful of brothas calling the plays, but because it really hasn’t been a big deal–at least not to the general public. From what I can tell, the average black person isn’t talking about it either. Then again, generalization is a funny thing, because having more than a handful of starting black quarterbacks in the NFL is a big deal to me, and I think people should be talking about it.

Remember when everyone made a big deal out of how Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith were facing off in the Super Bowl, marking the first time that a black head coach had reached the final game and won it? Tons of analysts expressed (ironically, with little thought) that they would know we are in a good place in America when having two black coaches in the Super Bowl is no longer a big deal.

The problem with that is that it will always be a big deal. Barack Obama winning the Presidency in 2008 was a big deal, because he was the first guy to do it. And while the second guy who wins it in 2060 (and it will probably be that long before that happens again!) may garner less coverage, it will still be a big deal.

Why?

Because we, black people, are the minority—the underdog of the real world. And the underdog is always sexy. Has been that way in the NCAA Tournament for years, and it will be that way in the tournament, and in life, for years to come.

This, in a roundabout, stream of consciousness kind of way, brings me back to the black quarterback. As nice as it is that having all these black quarterbacks is not a big deal, I really wish it were. The black quarterback is the underdog of the NFL. Say what you will, but being a black quarterback is not a moot point. Nowadays, no one wants to hear that Warren Moon was forced to play in Canada back in 1979, because racism in the NFL was preventing him from playing his natural position, but that stuff still matters today. A white kid and a black kid can walk down the street holding hands now (in most cities that is), but that doesn’t mean we stop listening to the “I have a dream speech” or talking about race in America.

I would love to believe that time will make being a black quarterback an issue of the past, but that type of thinking is what has plagued this country for the last couple of decades. We see a problem eradicating itself, and we say “Okay, it’s fixed.” We saw controlled use of drugs in the 70’s, so we let it go, and then we got an onslaught of drugs in the 80’s. We saw man reach the moon in the previous generation, and now we’re essentially not in space anymore. We saw credit default swaps making people money, and then let them ruin our country. And we saw affirmative action put minorities in some powerful positions, and now the black population has been the hardest hit by the recession in terms of unemployment.

Again, I would love to see the issue of being a black quarterback become a moot point, but it won’t, and it probably shouldn’t. Just five or so years ago, McNabb’s race was used against him by a prominent voice in society. And as a fervent lover of Texas high school football, I know for a fact that young quarterbacks are being pushed away from the position. So let the black quarterback issue lie there if you want to, but it is far away from dying.

Is Kevin Kolb the great white hype?

God bless Andy Reid’s heart. If my real remarks wouldn’t come across as kiss-ass homerism, I would write an entire article about the genius of Andy Reid. The entire league is scouring high schools, alley ways, backyards and shooting ranges for a decent quarterback, and Reid has a quarterback tree in his office. Yet again, Reid has taken an undervalued commodity and turned it into first-rate trade bait.

It started with Donovan McNabb, a pick that some people in Philly thought was inspired by a bad eating on the part of Andy Reid.

There was A.J. Feeley, who Reid got a few good games out of then benched for the playoffs. Reid wounding getting a second round pick for him from Miami.

Then there was Jeff Garcia. He too benefited from Reid’s system, and he got a nice paycheck when he landed in Tampa Bay.

And now recently, Reid has taken both Vick and Kevin Kolb, on the cheap, and made one a top five salary earner, and the other got a $65 million contract with only a handful of games under his belt, while leaving the Eagles with a pick and player via trade.

However, neither Garcia nor Feeley worked out all that well in their next stops. And McNabb was not a success in Washington.

But why?Each of those quarterbacks was good enough to help the Eagles win games the season before he left. Was it the Eagles system? Has Andy Reid developed the Texas Tech offense of the NFL? Or is it the talent the Eagles surrounded the quarterbacks with? After all, the Eagles have always had solid offensive players either on the line or at the skill positions, if not both.

When you consider the fact that none of Reid’s castaways have faired that well, one would have to think that Kolb is being over hyped in Arizona.

But I ask again…why?

Slow down, you will be glad to know this has nothing to do with race, but it does have everything to do with expectations. Fact of the matter is that all of Andy Reid’s quarterbacks have excelled out of a foundation of low expectations. Even McNabb was booed on draft day, and nobody thought he would be the guy to lead the team for the next 10 years. So when Reid’s quarterbacks leave Philly and go on to teams that expect them to bring some legitimacy and stability to the quarterback position, every one, from McNabb to Garcia, has failed to live up to the expectations.

So what should I really expect of Kolb in Arizona? Ironically, the evidence suggests that if I want him to succeed, I sure as hell shouldn’t expect him to.

Does Michael Vick deserve redemption?

If you haven’t copped yourself a copy of ESPN the Magazine’s Michael Vick issue (and why would you have? Nobody reads magazines anymore), then you need to at least check it out on the web (like a normal person). In that issue, was an article detailing Vick’s stint in jail, and while I was reading it, I was overwhelmed by the question, “Does the rest of America think Michael Vick deserves redemption after experiencing all of this?”

I’m black.

And as we have seen with many a topic in society, black people, as with any historically oppressed culture in this country, do have a tendency to stick with each other, even on the most controversial of issues. We are king of like the Tea Party, only without the propensity to discriminate. For example, I was but a mere 10 years old when O.J. Simpson was accused of murder in 1994. Even then, barely aware of the fact that there was a reason there had never been a black president, I was rooted in the black culture enough to know that I was supposed to be on O.J. Simpson’s side. Why? Because everyone I knew—correction, every black person I knew (not that there is much of a difference between those two statements for a black kid growing up in a glorified ghetto)—didn’t think O.J. did it.

Now, almost 20 years and a decent education later, I know better than to go to the place where I am essentially rooting for a murderer. But even I, or at least some part of me, voted for Barack Obama because he was black, and didn’t think twice about it. (That doesn’t mean I don’t have some discretion, as Chris Rock infamously said, black people would not have elected Flavor Flav.)

I say all this, because as with O.J. Simpson, as with Kobe Bryant, as with Barry Bonds and as with Michael Vick, black people initially took the sides of their cultural brethren. It is what it is. And so when you go back to my original question, “Does the rest of America think that Vick deserves redemption?” all you have to do is look at poll after poll when Vick came out of jail to see that most black people approved of Vick and almost half of white people thought he should have been banned from the NFL.

That shit is crazy, right?

Same person, different voters, disparate results.

People always want to say that sports are beyond race, but not always. Poll results like the ones I generalized (and the major one in the Rasmussen Poll), tell us that your race correlates with a specific answer to the Vick question, “do you like him or not?” So what sports actually are is a meritocracy on the field, with a business and political system that creeps into the arena of play from time to time, if not everyday. Sports business and politics are sometimes why some people start and others don’t, and they are why some guys get paid and others are left for broke.

But in most cases, merit does win out in sports. It’s why despite nearly 50% of the dominant race in this country suggesting Vick should be banned from the NFL, Vick became just the third player in sports history to sign two $100 million contracts. As to whether the country at large thinks Vick deserves redemption after killing dogs, I’m not sure—I know the Eagles do though.

Should Hollywood have based “Moneyball” on Bill Belichick’s life?

It’s funny that some studio head decided to run a bunch of “Moneyball” commercials during the NFL season opener. Not because he won’t see the ROI he expects on that, but because of the irony. Here I am, watching the return of America’s greatest past time, as touchdowns are being thrown all over the place, bodies are being crushed and the play ends on a goal line stand at the 1-yard line after a pass interference call, and in between this sports spectacular, are commercials about a sport where in the infamous words of George Carlin, their game is “played on a diamond, in a park—the baseball park.”

Sorry, Hollywood,” but Billy Beane isn’t the quintessential sports leader. Yes, among elite sports circles, his work with the Oakland Athletics is all the rage. But in the real world, football rules and championships trump all. Beane is the general manager of a clubhouse that hasn’t won anything under his watch. Bill Belichick is the three-time Super Bowl winning head coach of a football squad. He’s the really “moneyballer,” not Billy Beane.

You all know, I am as geeky as the next guy when it comes to sports statistics, but I know when a guy deserves a movie and when a guy doesn’t, and Hollywood got it wrong here. Not that I’m saying that the all-knowing, say-nothing personality of Bill Belichick would make for a summer blockbuster, but at least his success on the field worth a movie—Billy Beane on the other hand; his success resides on “going home.” Not exactly the stuff legends, movies or legendary movies are made of.

The post "Zo Knows: Football Storylines – NFL Week 1" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-football-storylines-nfl-week-1-4570/feed/ 0 Fantasy Football Projections: Week 1 Statements of Truth http://thesportswatchers.com/fantasy-football/fantasy-football-projections-week-1-statements-of-truth-4564 http://thesportswatchers.com/fantasy-football/fantasy-football-projections-week-1-statements-of-truth-4564#comments Tue, 06 Sep 2011 07:00:46 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4564 The first week of fantasy football is here, and as usual, you can find all of the best fantasy predictions, projections and picks over at our Fantasy Football website. Each and every week though, TheSportsWatchers also want to give you a bird’s eye view of the fantasy football landscape, just so you have a good [...]

The post "Fantasy Football Projections: Week 1 Statements of Truth" was originally published at TSW.

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Darrelle Revis New York Jets
The first week of fantasy football is here, and as usual, you can find all of the best fantasy predictions, projections and picks over at our Fantasy Football website.

Each and every week though, TheSportsWatchers also want to give you a bird’s eye view of the fantasy football landscape, just so you have a good idea as to what everyone is talking about in the world of fantasy football.

So without further adieu, here are four fantasy football projections that should come true in the opening week of the fantasy season.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams
Michael Vick, Fantasy Projections: 35 points
Michael Vick should have no problem starting off strong in Week 1 of the season. The Rams, while a respectable defense that doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, still does not have the experience or the talent to contain the firecracker that is the Eagles offense. With DeSean Jackson ready to go and LeSean McCoy at running back, the Eagles have speed that the Rams just cannot matchup with on the outsides or in the box. That means Vick will not have to do much more than get the football in the hands of his best players and watch things go from there. Certainly, Jackson can get behind the cornerbacks of the Rams, and McCoy will be as dangerous as ever on the screen pass, so I don’t see the Rams being able to out tactic the Eagles. And if they are able to take away the speed of those two players, they will not be able to do it while containing Mike Vick. All and all, this should be a fairly mundane 3 passing touchdown, 1 rushing touchdown day for Mike Vick, and a whole lot of yards to boot.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco, Fantasy Projections: 10 points
If you do not know the history already, get out a piece of paper and a pen. Joey Flacco is not your guy in Week 1, as history tells us he just isn’t going to perform all that well against this Pittsburgh Steelers secondary. In his defense, no NFL quarterback performs all that well against the Steelers defense, so it’s not like it’s a problem. It’s just unfortunate that Flacco has to open up the season against them, play them later in the year at Pittsburgh, and probably for a third time in the NFL postseason. But such are the cards he was dealt, and if you got dealt Joe Flacco as your starting fantasy football quarterback, you better fold. In three games against the Steelers last season, Flacco had just 647 yards, or 216 yards per game, and he threw 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Not exactly the kind of numbers you want from the guy in the opening week of your fantasy football season. So if you have the guts to bench him, I’d recommend you doing just that.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LeGarrette Blount, Fantasy Projections: 6 points
I know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are everyone’s “sleeper” pick this season, but they may have a very hard time doing anything on offense in Week 1. No, I’m not saying that the Detroit Lions are the next reincarnation of the Iron Curtain defense, but they sure do have some players that can make it seem that way for a play or two. And against the Bucs, an offense with far less experience than the Lions have on defense, I really think the Lions can get the better of Tampa Bay, especially down in the trenches. Ndamukong Suh is obviously a force to be reckoned with, and he’s a big enough of a force for me to believe that he will almost single-handedly make the Bucs offense one-dimensional. Try as he might, I don’t foresee Blount getting any kind of momentum in this game, not when his offensive line has to double team Suh play, after play, after play. And on the flips-side, the Bucs defense may not be able to handle the passing game of the Lions, making it all that much harder to give Blount the carries he needs to have a nice showing in Fantasy Football Week 1.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets
Miles Austin, Fantasy Football Projections: 6 points
The New York Jets may not have been able to land Nnamdi Asomugha, but they still have Revis Island. Unfortunately for Miles Austin owners, it looks like Austin has a one-way ticket to the island in Week 1. While second-year wide receiver Dez Bryant does deserve some attention, it’s Austin who is Tony Romo’s favorite receiver and the one the Jets would be most likely to take out of the game. Quite frankly, as good as Austin is, I do not foresee him doing much against Darrelle Revis. This is a man who has shut down far bigger and better receivers (e.g. Andre Johnson), so Revis certainly will not back down to the physicality Austin uses to his advantage against smaller cornerbacks. Actually, I would be surprised if Austin got more than three or four footballs thrown his way, and barring a slip or a “pulled hammy” by the all-pro cornerback, I cannot imagine that few opportunities resulting in very many fantasy points against Revis.

More Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections

The post "Fantasy Football Projections: Week 1 Statements of Truth" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/fantasy-football/fantasy-football-projections-week-1-statements-of-truth-4564/feed/ 0 Zo Knows: Eagles Are Good, But Don’t Make Them a Strawman http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-eagles-are-good-but-dont-make-them-a-strawman-4554 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-eagles-are-good-but-dont-make-them-a-strawman-4554#comments Mon, 29 Aug 2011 17:00:11 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4554 On the front cover of the latest edition of ESPN the Magazine is Michael Vick. It’s yet another example of the media profiting off someone’s notoriety, but it is what the media does. Standing there, tall, confident and with a stare that would make most people turn the other way, the image of Vick on [...]

The post "Zo Knows: Eagles Are Good, But Don’t Make Them a Strawman" was originally published at TSW.

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Michael Vick, ESPN Cover, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL

Michael Vick on the Cover of ESPN the Magazine - ESPN.com

On the front cover of the latest edition of ESPN the Magazine is Michael Vick. It’s yet another example of the media profiting off someone’s notoriety, but it is what the media does.

Standing there, tall, confident and with a stare that would make most people turn the other way, the image of Vick on the ESPN cover is that of a man on a mission. More importantly, however, is the fact that his image is on the cover. Damn the mission, if Mike Vick is allowed to be on the cover of a major magazine it is a sign that he is closer to being accepted by the masses.

But bigger than Vick’s redemption, is the revival of the Philadelphia Eagles. Once the NFC’s perennial favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Eagles went through a long-stretch in which the expectations were greater than the talent on the roster. Sure, Donovan McNabb was always there, but for most of that time, the receivers weren’t, and when they finally got there, the defense was gone.

Alas, the Eagles have talent. They brought in six former Pro Bowlers, and not just names from the past, but true NFL professionals who were significant contributors a year ago. Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha was the biggest acquisition, and coincidentally enough, he fills a void that was likely the Eagles biggest weakness a season ago. With other new acquisitions on the defensive line, in the secondary and on the offensive side of the football, the Eagles finally seem to have the talent to match the city of Philadelphia’s expectations.

Yet, we know what happens when that becomes the case…

On a recent episode of “Pardon the Interruption,” Michael Wilbon fervently rejected the notion that the Eagles are the favorites in the NFC to reach the Super Bowl.

Paul Sokoloski of the Times Leader said the Eagles “dream” looks more like a nightmare.

John Gruden said the Eagles were not good enough to win 11 games and said the Dallas Cowboys would win at least 10.

The Associated Press, at no fault of their own, ran an article addressing the Eagles self-proclaimed attitude of Super Bowl or bust.

Ron Jaworski, a former Eagle himself and well-known Eagles homer, couldn’t bring himself to predict that the Eagles would win 11 games this season.

The BleacherReport.com, a popular vehicle for fan reaction, is full of articles suggesting that the Eagles are not as good as advertised.

And everyone’s favorite NFL football analyst, Kevin Durant, said Michael Vick is not a top 5 quarterback, while dozens of “actual” opiners cried overrated too.

But what else would expect from the media when a team goes out and gets the kind of talent that is associated with a Super Bowl winning team in a matter of 7 to 10 days?

Actually, you should know the answer to that, because we just saw it happen a year ago in the NBA. And much like that Miami Heat team, the Eagles do have the talent to accomplish much of the hype that is surrounding them. In fact, the Eagles are the favorite to come out of the NFC. It would be a disappointment if they did not win the NFC East. They better win 11 games in what most people believe will be another down year for the NFC East. And if Michael Vick is not a top five quarterback, somebody should tell that to last year’s MVP voters.

Again, nobody should be surprised when the hype does not match up with reality, or when the naysayers fail to do so either. But what’s happening here? Why are people bringing the Eagles down before they have done anything? More importantly, why is it that the same mediums that hyped up the Eagles are the ones that are slowly poking at the Eagles shield of armor they created?

Dare I say their name again?

What happened to the Miami Heat last year was a media miracle—one the media created themselves. The hype of “The Decision” across ESPN and other media outlets (ehemm, Larry King) helped turn a decision that has been made countless times in sports into one of the most anticipated events ever. And when his decision brought about a change of the guard in the NBA, the media was quick to anoint the Heat one of the best teams in the league. For example, ESPN covered and promoted the Heat’s start to training camp, something I have never seen at a national level since I began watching the NBA 20 years ago.

And with the media’s hoisting of Miami, fans turned on the Heat. After all, it was “Miami, Miami, Miami” 24/7, and people got sick of being told that their team has no chance. But smartly, the media took advantage of that too. After and while hyping up the Heat, the media quickly took to bringing them down. Analyst after analyst poked holes in the Heat’s talent, chemistry, coaching and execution. People blew up shoulder-bumping incidents, tears in the locker room and some people in the media even hinted at the fact that LeBron purposefully played horribly in the NBA Finals.

And what did all of that result in? Only one of the most watched NBA seasons in the history of the NBA. The only thing that could have made the season more watched would have been more eyeballs during the Finals, as the Dallas Mavericks aren’t exactly the league’s best draw. Still, never before did basketball games in October and November mean so much to fans of the NBA, and ESPN, ABC and TNT reaped the rewards via ratings highs all season long.

Enter the new Heat, the Philadelphia Eagles.

The quick acquisition of several Pro Bowlers made the Eagles one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Vince Young called the team a “dream team” (despite the fact he does not start), and the Eagles general manager essentially said Super Bowl or bust. However, there was no rush to hype up the Eagles as the future champions. Yeah, they are good, but the assembling of talent in the NFL does not correlate to winning championships like it does in basketball. In the NBA, there are dozens of champions we point back to and say there was a key pre-season or mid-season trade that helped them win the title. But in the NFL, I dare you to find more than a handful of teams that won the Super Bowl as a result of a trade that occurred a few weeks before the start of the season or during the season. You can’t do it.

But after a short while, maybe a few days, of talking about the Eagles talent, you saw the pressure amount. Young’s and the GM’s statements did not help matters, but all of a sudden, the Eagles were looked at as an all-star team, a team with too much talent and a team trying to buy a championship. Essentially, they became the Heat. The only difference is that the Eagles are not nearly as talented as the Heat were.

Thus, what we have here is a strawman situation. Again, you know and I know that trades and free agent acquisitions rarely amount to Super Bowls in the NFL, and nobody is expected to win the Super Bowl on the basis of a few moves. Favorites? Maybe. Contenders? More accurate. But are the Eagles realistically expected to win the Super Bowl in the same fashion that the Heat were expected to win the NBA Finals? Brotha please!

But the media has found Moby Dick. They have their white whale, and they will not let it go. They saw what a team “destined” to win it all can do to a fan base, and they want to get the same result out of the Eagles. If the media can hold up the Eagles as a team trying to buy a championship and then express the viewpoint of the fans that buying a championship is wrong, they can get that same backlash they got for the Heat that turned into big ratings. It’s a beautiful ploy, as many media outlets, bosses and personalities made money and big names for themselves off the backs of the Heat and the fan hatred spewed their way.

I do not blame the media for doing this, because first of all, it is sports, and sport was designed to be two things: fun and profitable. So you won’t hear me blaming the media for taking advantage of my favorite team—it’s what they do.

But the media should do so at their own peril, because this strategy will not yield the same results it did when it was applied to the Heat.

First of all, the Eagles are strawman. The Heat actually had about a 33% shot at winning the championship—the Eagles odds are far below that. The Eagles are but a strawman. Nobody really believes they have definitively built a championship team, but the media wants you to believe that’s what the Eagles have done while turning around to say the Eagles will not succeed in doing so. It’s like when politicians argue in favor of assisting the less unfortunate in their search for jobs and those opposing it say, “you can’t give handouts to the poor,” when nobody was talking about handouts in the first place—just job assistance. It suffices to say, the media wants you to believe that everyone has the Eagles winning the championship, when in actuality, nobody actually believes they have successfully bought the best team in football.

Second of all, there is no sex appeal with the Eagles as there was with the Miami Heat. The Heat had Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, the coolest President in the history of sports, and they play in Miami, a city that’s home to beautiful women, beaches, the Cocaine Cowboys and cruises. That is a very sexy scenario, one that could gather eyeballs from both sides of the isle. The Eagles, on the other hand, have one oft-talked about player, and the team plays in a city known for brotherly love, blue-collar workers and fattening cheesesteaks. That is not exactly must-see television.

Last but not least, as oft-talked about as Michael Vick is, he is no LeBron James. Maybe once upon a time he was. For instance, when Vick went into Green Bay and beat Brett Favre in the NFC Playoffs, that was probably as defining a moment for him as LeBron’s 29 of 30 to beat Detroit in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. But in all reality, Vick has failed to live up to those expectations since that moment, while LeBron James has won 2 MVPs has been the best player in basketball for at least the last four seasons. And for the media to successfully make the Eagles a villain that everybody should root against, they would have to give it a face. For the Heat, it was easy, LeBron James was the best player in the NBA, and he seemingly colluded to win a championship. But with Vick, he was in Philly prior to this media hoopla, and most everyone that came to Philadelphia was either through trade or through a very competitive free agent search. There was no hint collusion involved on the part of Michael Vick.

Besides, the media does not know what to do with Vick. He was a dog killer, and yet he has made a comeback—and America loves a comeback. Now Vick is being featured in likes of ESPN and GQ magazines. So on one hand, the media could profit off a nationwide, Yankees-like disdain for the Eagles, but they could also profit off of the love of the Mike Vick redemption story. It’s a catch 22 that wasn’t apparent in Miami, making it hard for me to believe the media can pull off this strawman argument. They will try though. Because doing so successfully means big ratings. And if big ratings come at the cost of Vick or the Eagles public adoration, so be it. It’s what the media does, and I think I am okay with it.

The post "Zo Knows: Eagles Are Good, But Don’t Make Them a Strawman" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-eagles-are-good-but-dont-make-them-a-strawman-4554/feed/ 0 Coach v. Caddy: Is Steve Williams the Belichick of the PGA? http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/coach-v-caddy-is-steve-williams-the-belichick-of-the-pga-4550 http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/coach-v-caddy-is-steve-williams-the-belichick-of-the-pga-4550#comments Tue, 16 Aug 2011 12:10:44 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4550 When I say to you that the caddy has little to do with how well a golfer performs, I don’t suppose that what would then arise from your head is a fiery smoke, produced by the raging inferno churning deep within your brain as you try to process how on earth I could possibly insult [...]

The post "Coach v. Caddy: Is Steve Williams the Belichick of the PGA?" was originally published at TSW.

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Steve Williams caddying for Tiger Woods, PGA
When I say to you that the caddy has little to do with how well a golfer performs, I don’t suppose that what would then arise from your head is a fiery smoke, produced by the raging inferno churning deep within your brain as you try to process how on earth I could possibly insult the righteousness of the caddy profession like that.

Glad we can agree on that.

However, if I were to suggest that the manager of a major league baseball team had just about as much to do with his team winning as a caddy does, you probably would be a little bit upset.

If I took it a step farther and said that an NBA coach is no more to his team than Steve Williams was to Tiger Woods, that too might inspire you to confront me.

And if I even dared suggest that a purveyor of America’s pastime, a head coach of NFL football, was nothing more than the football equivalent of a guy who carries around a bag all day, you might be enraged enough to hurt me.

Before you go too crazy with that 2×4, let me assure that is not “exactly” what I think of the “coaching” profession. But I will assert that there is little more to coaching than there is to what the caddy does. And no matter what your retort is, I can almost assuredly connect something a head coach of a professional sports team does to that of what a caddy does in golf.

A caddy gives advice to his golfer. A head coach advises his players.

A caddy helps pick the tools the golfer will use in the act. A coach chooses the overall equipment requirements of his team—within the overall regulations of the league, of course.

A caddy tells the golfer where to hit the ball. A coach tells a player where to hit, throw or shoot the ball.

A coach chooses the play, but sometimes the player audibles out of it. A caddy defines the best route for a putt, and a golfer sometimes overturns the caddy.

The only real differences between a caddy and a head coach are the fact that a head coach is given institutional control and the head coach is responsible for more than one player.

Those are the only two things that separate the caddy profession from the head coaching profession. Well, that and the whole “carry my bags” thing.

Yet, with those mere two differences, we as a public are immediately ready to castigate the very person who suggest that the a coach is nothing more than an overpowering caddy with at least two players dumb enough to listen to him. And it’s those two differences that allowed us to go to town on Steve Williams, Woods’ former caddy, when dare suggested that he was the impetus behind Tiger’s and Adam Scott’s success. However, when a head coach is given all the glory in the world, we say nothing. In the wake of three Super Bowls in four years, we gave Bill Belichick lifetime immunity from football criticism, skepticism and maybe even a rule or two (i.e., “Spygate”).

Despite the only difference between Williams and Belichick is that Belichick has to manage a group of players and he actually calls the plays. But in every other way, they are the same. When Belichick was designing the game plan, Williams is out reading the greens. When Belichick was working one-on-one with Tom Brady, Williams was out measuring Tiger’s distance with the 3 iron. When Belichick was calling plays, Williams was calling shots. When Steve Williams won tournaments, it was coincidentally with one of the best golfers in the history of the world. When Belichick win Super Bowls, it was coincidentally with one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the world. We don’t get off this merry go-round of similarities until we get to the point where Tiger Woods fires Steve Williams in a situation where Belichick makes Tom Brady take a pay cut.

So I guess the question is, if we as a society, myself included, are going to have such disdain for the caddy vs. coach comparison, what are we putting value in? Is it the managerial role that coaches are granted by the organization? Is that the value? That really isn’t a skill so much as an earned privilege. Sure, you have to be a good manager in order to maintain such control over multiple people, but how much do we think that lends to the winning of football, basketball and baseball games? Sure, you can’t have the inmates running the asylum and win a Super Bowl, but you can be darn to close to it. Just ask the 90’s Cowboys, the 80’s Bears or the 70’s Steelers. With a history of anarchy succeeding like that in the sanctity that is the National Football League, I’m not sure I can grand the coach so much respect for being given control of something as a means to win football games.

I will say that being in charge of designing an offense, shuffling players around and implementing strategy is a skill set becoming of winning coaches, and it may fall into line with being the manager, but doesn’t a caddy strategize for a course in the same way?

I’m not sure I can buy the “manager” argument that puts the coach ahead of the caddy, so maybe it’s the institutional control. Coaches aren’t in charge of just players, but the strategy, implementation of strategy and the execution of it. We blame coaches when a play doesn’t work. We don’t blame a caddy when a swing doesn’t go through. We blame Belichick when he goes for it on 4th down and loses the game, but we don’t blame Steve Williams when Tiger tries to get to the green ahead of regulation and the ball lands in the water. For some reason, when the athletes fail in team sports, we feel as if the coach’s organization of multiple players caused the poor result, not the players themselves. And that my friend is the difference.

That’s the difference we see between coaches and caddies that we can’t let go of. The caddy has no blame, and with that he gets no reward. We can’t celebrate Steve Williams when he is on the winning team with Adam Scott, because we wouldn’t massacre him, or even know if we should, had he cost Scott the win with one of his “suggestions.” It’s a matter of risk-reward. The head coach puts his neck out there, and if he fails, fans chop it off. If he wins, he’s hoisted as the all-knowing leader of athletes.

Fact is though; coaches neutralize each other, whereas caddies can’t. A bad coach on one team increases the odds of success for a good coach on the other. The good coach comes out looking as if he has more of an impact than he did, because his suggestions are directly pitted against the suggestions of the opposing, but worse off, head coach on the side of the field. A caddy’s suggestions are not weighed directly against another’s, only against an index score that can’t fight back. So when a caddy has a better suggestion than the other caddy, we can extricate the suggestion from one point to another and say he out-suggested the other golfer’s caddy. But with a coach, it’s right there on film. Belichick calls a screen against your blitz, and I can tell you why Belichick is the better coach.

But inherently, institutional control and direct competition aside, the jobs of a coach and a caddy are the same—or at least they have a similar effect on the outcome of their respective sports. Personally, and perhaps to fault and in spite of my own argument, I will continue to prop up the NFL coach for the “nuance” involved in designing plays that work and putting 11 people in a position to win against schemes that can beat a superiorly athletic team.

However, when you start going down the line to basketball, soccer, hockey coaches and baseball coaches, it’s hard not see the delineation from caddy to coach. Very hard indeed.

The post "Coach v. Caddy: Is Steve Williams the Belichick of the PGA?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/coach-v-caddy-is-steve-williams-the-belichick-of-the-pga-4550/feed/ 0 As Good As Randy Moss Was, T.O. Was Just As Good http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/as-good-as-randy-moss-was-t-o-was-just-as-good-4541 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/as-good-as-randy-moss-was-t-o-was-just-as-good-4541#comments Thu, 04 Aug 2011 08:32:58 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4541 Admit it. When you think of Randy Moss’s rank among the best wide receivers of all-time, you unquestionably put him among the top 5, right? I know I do. But when you think about Terrell Owens, is such an assumption as easy to come by? Intrinsically, the answer is “no” for me. However, a quick [...]

The post "As Good As Randy Moss Was, T.O. Was Just As Good" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Admit it. When you think of Randy Moss’s rank among the best wide receivers of all-time, you unquestionably put him among the top 5, right? I know I do. But when you think about Terrell Owens, is such an assumption as easy to come by? Intrinsically, the answer is “no” for me. However, a quick [...]

Randy Moss and Terrell Owens
Admit it. When you think of Randy Moss’s rank among the best wide receivers of all-time, you unquestionably put him among the top 5, right? I know I do. But when you think about Terrell Owens, is such an assumption as easy to come by?

Intrinsically, the answer is “no” for me.

However, a quick look at the stats and the game film should rid of any notion that Terrell Owens wasn’t just as good a wide receiver as Randy Moss was.

So why doesn’t it feel that way?

Despite Owens essentially paralleling Randy Moss in receptions per game, yards per game and receiving touchdown for their careers, you and I both have this vision of Randy Moss running by cornerbacks like gazelles, jumping over defenders like Michael Jordan and attracting defenses like almost no other wide receiver in the history of football has.

More to that point, Moss’s leaping ability stands out in our minds. He was the best there ever was at running by defenders and jumping to catch the ball at the point of attack. There’s really no question about those things. And it is that very skill that clouds our memory of just how good Moss was.

Bill James has explained to us in “The New Bill James Baseball Abstract” that “specialists” players who do two or three things excellently are overrated. He does it in baseball terms of course, explaining that the 10th-best third baseball player of all-time isn’t recognized as such, because he was a jack of all trades and was never really the best slugger, hitter or fielder during his time. However, players that were not as productive at producing or preventing runs have gotten far more credit because they were either home run specialists or on-base Gods.

You can easily apply this theory to Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. Randy Moss was really good at two things: going deep and jumping over players. Again, he was the best that ever did those two things. However, he was not good at going over the middle at all, which made it hard to depend on him on every down. He wasn’t a good blocker, which sometimes negated the attention he got in the run game. And of course, Moss never was the player with best motor in the world, which sometimes cost his team plays on the field.

Terrell Owens, on the other hand, is a very well-rounded wide receiver. He is an excellent blocker. He made big plays down the sideline AND over the middle of the field. He was a better player after the catch. And most importantly, he played every down with the same, consistent, punishing effort.

Sure, Owens had his flaws—he didn’t have the best hands—but when you are as big and courageous over the middle of the field as he is, drop balls are going to happen, and Lord knows Moss had his share of regrettable on-field moments. Still, Owens all-around play at receiver was typically just as, or even more, valuable than that of Randy Moss’s, and the numbers proved that as the older Terrell Owens even aged more gracefully than Moss.

So don’t let the gigantic leaps, the insane run-bys, the trash talk, the fake mooning, or the big afro full you. As good as Moss was, Terrell Owens, game for game, was just as good.

That’s not to say Moss wasn’t good, because again, Bill James’ theory accounted for, Moss is one of the best five wide receivers to ever play the game. And if he is in that discussion, so is Owens. Chew on that—it’s called the truth.

The post "As Good As Randy Moss Was, T.O. Was Just As Good" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/as-good-as-randy-moss-was-t-o-was-just-as-good-4541/feed/ 0 Can Kevin Kolb Actually Deliver in the Dessert? http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/can-kevin-kolb-actually-deliver-in-the-dessert-4534 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/can-kevin-kolb-actually-deliver-in-the-dessert-4534#comments Thu, 04 Aug 2011 03:35:44 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4534 Kevin Kolb is a lot of things. He is strong-armed, quick-footed, coachable and patient. But is he a franchise savior? In trading for Kevin Kolb this past week, the Arizona Cardinals made one thing abundantly clear; they are placing the entire franchise on the back of Kevin Kolb. Of course, the coaches will give you [...]

The post "Can Kevin Kolb Actually Deliver in the Dessert?" was originally published at TSW.

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Kevin Kolb Arizona Cardinals 2011
Kevin Kolb is a lot of things. He is strong-armed, quick-footed, coachable and patient.

But is he a franchise savior?

In trading for Kevin Kolb this past week, the Arizona Cardinals made one thing abundantly clear; they are placing the entire franchise on the back of Kevin Kolb. Of course, the coaches will give you the usual spiel about how the team is not built around any single individual and that it takes 50-people to make this thing work. However, if football and sports were 100% about the team, then individuals wouldn’t be traded for groups of other individuals and/or draft picks the way they are. And if Kolb wasn’t worth more than 1/50th of the Cardinals on-field potential, they would not have traded their starting cornerback and a draft pick to Philadelphia just to get what was a second-string quarterback a season ago.

Given that the Cardinals gave up so much to get Kolb, the pressure is on. Fans who knew they had a 10-year starter in cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are going to expect a lot out of Kolb and question whether he was worth if from the first game of NFL Week 1.

And who can blame them?

Not many Pro-Bowl caliber defensive players pass through Arizona, so to give one up for a guy who has not played an entire season worth of football since 2006 when he was in college seems pretty risky.

And it is.

Head coach Ken Whisenhunt knows he has essentially staked his coaching career on this decision. Sure, the guys who enabled this trade from their cushy seats in the press box are the ones who let this stuff happens, but often times their careers are less-tarnished by the results of the trades than the very people who had nothing to do with pulling the trigger on the acquisition.

So now Whisenhunt must turn what has, to this point, been nothing more than potential into a solid, starting, NFL quarterback. That’s a hard job to do; but it’s not one that Whisenhunt hasn’t had success with in the past. It was Whisenhunt who made Ben Roethlisberger one of the most successful young quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. As the Pittsburgh Steelers young offensive coordinator, Whisenhunt got Roethlisberger to win his first 15 games as a rookie starting quarterback, and then he helped Big Ben get a ring in 2006.

Since then, the grass has not been as green. Turning potential-laden Arizona quarterbacks into budding, young stars has proven a difficult task. Whether it was Matt Leinart or an even more seasons Derrick Anderson, Whisenhunt’s quarterback struggles have sank his team. In two seasons with Kurt Warner as the full-time starter, the Cardinals and Whisenhunt enjoyed 4 playoff victories. In the remaining two seasons, the Cardinals have managed a 13-19 season and no trips to the postseason.

And now Kevin Kolb is going to turn it around…right?

Truth be told, one of the best ways to draw interest in a team is to be the Eagles backup quarterback. First it was AJ Feeley, for whom the Miami Dolphins paid a pretty penny to take off the Eagles hands. Then it was Jeff Garcia, who was soon courted by Tampa Bay for big dollars to start for the Buccaneers. Once Donovan McNabb was slated to become the backup, the Eagles got big draft picks for #5 via the Washington Redskins. And now we have Kevin Kolb, for which the Cardinals traded away their most reliable defensive player.

But if Kolb turns out to produce the same results that the other Andy Reid rejects have produced, his Arizona career will be short-lived. Feeley was a failure in Miami and got benched. Jeff Garcia lasted all of one season and was down in South Florida. And Donovan McNabb is now on his 3rd team in 18 months.

Kolb is different though, right? After all, unlike Feeley, Kolb was a high, blue-chip draft pick with division 1 size and talent. Oh wait, he went in the second round?

Yeah, but unlike Garcia, Kolb can see in the pocket and doesn’t break it unless unnecessary. Come again? Kolb got sacked 7% of the time last season.

Okay, but Kolb is much more accurate than McNabb ever was.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner. Kolb is more accurate at the age of 27 than McNabb was. Then again, Kolb also had DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celeck and LeSean McCoy to throw to last season and threw for 60%. McNabb’s quality receivers list consisted of Chad Lewis, Charles Johnson and Duce Staley and he compiled 58% of his passes.

I do not want to be Debbie-downer here, but the history of the Eagles backup quarterback doesn’t bode well for the Cardinal and Ken Whisenhunt’s job security. Maybe it’s the Eagles system, maybe it’s Andy Reid constantly being in a QB’s face, or maybe it’s just a coincidence. Either way, 3, 6, 15 and 20 seasons from now, people will be making historical judgments on the basis of this trade and whether Kolb was worth it.

All I can say is that I doubt Kolb will be at that party.

The post "Can Kevin Kolb Actually Deliver in the Dessert?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/can-kevin-kolb-actually-deliver-in-the-dessert-4534/feed/ 0 Zo Knows: Old Quarterbacks Die Hard http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-old-quarterbacks-die-hard-4528 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-old-quarterbacks-die-hard-4528#comments Fri, 29 Jul 2011 12:18:08 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4528 I have reached a certain point in my life. I now know what it’s like to see a generation of quarterbacks grow old before my very own eyes. First it was Kurt Warner retiring. Donovan McNabb to Minnesota. Matt Hasselbeck to the Titans. Favre to Philly. And now Carson Palmer retiring? The boy wonders have [...]

The post "Zo Knows: Old Quarterbacks Die Hard" was originally published at TSW.

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Quarterback Donovan McNabb
I have reached a certain point in my life. I now know what it’s like to see a generation of quarterbacks grow old before my very own eyes.

First it was Kurt Warner retiring. Donovan McNabb to Minnesota. Matt Hasselbeck to the Titans. Favre to Philly. And now Carson Palmer retiring?

The boy wonders have gotten old. And now they are steady hanging on to their careers as desperate coaches try to hang on to their jobs. The game of football is a hard thing to let go of, especially when you play the position of quarterback.

The quarterback is the most glorious position in all of sports. From pee-wee football to the pros, nobody on the field is more recognized or more celebrated than the quarterback, and ESPN’s homage to the “Year of the Quarterback” is proof-positive of that. As we speak, ESPN is planning all kinds of interviews, television specials, insider reports and in-depth statistics on the quarterback position.

And that’s why those guys can’t let go. That’s why Brett Favre would rather hang on one year too long than go out on top. What’s one bad year on the field for another season full of adoration, adulation and congratulations? People depend on quarterbacks for their success, their financial livelihood and sometimes their sanity. Even a non-household name like Matt Hasselbeck got treated like the prom queen of the NFL when the Titans were in pursuit of him. Hell, even an unknown name like his quarterbacking brother, Tim Hasselbeck, is married to the prom queen of morning talk, Elisabeth Hasselbeck.

So when that dependence and adulation seems to be in jeopardy, who could blame these guys for wanting to hang on? I don’t, because they should try to hold to every bit of it they can for as long as they can. Because once it’s over, it’s over.

What I don’t understand is the preponderance of football teams keeping these guys around. Personally, Donovan McNabb may be my favorite player of all-time, but considering what he did last season, I have no idea why the Minnesota Vikings would consider bringing him in for $6 or $7 million. It just seems ridiculous; especially since I’m not sure McNabb should even be guaranteed starter status on a team that has Joe Webb and the 12th overall selection from this year’s draft at the same position. Was I the only one that saw McNabb play last year? That’s not to say he can’t be better in 2011, especially in a system he is more familiar with, but I wouldn’t bet six million dollars on it either.

And then there’s talk about Brett Favre backing up Michael Vick in Philadelphia. Am in the twilight zone? That is ridiculous. As if the Eagles need any more fodder on their team with an ex-con at the helm, they are going to bring in the penis-text-messaging king that could barely walk off the field in his last game as the backup quarterback. There’s something to be said for having an experienced veteran as your backup QB, but it’s a whole other thing if you are not sure whether he has 0 or 1 good ankle.

Don’t even get me started with Matt Hasselbeck being deemed the savior in Tennessee. Hasselbeck hasn’t had a good game as a quarterback in half a decade. Okay, that’s a stretch. But he didn’t throw for three touchdowns in all of his 14 games last season, and he had just two 300-yard passing games in 14 outings. The season before that he threw 17 touchdowns and 17 interceptions for the 5-11 Seattle Seahawks. And in 2008, Hasselbeck played in just 7 games while throwing 10 interceptions and only 5 touchdown passes. Yeah, good luck with that, Titans.

Then there’s Carson Palmer, who’s starting to confuse himself with Brett Favre. If Palmer thinks he’s in a position to force himself off a team, he’s got another thought coming. The Cincinnati Bengals traded Chad Johnson before they were willing to trade their threatening-to-retire quarterback, and I imagine they aren’t moving away from that stance. Perhaps if Palmer had the charisma, charm, popularity, or better yet, the success of a Brett Favre, he could win the public relations war and get himself on another team. Unfortunately, nobody cares that Palmer is retiring—not his fans, not fans of other teams without quarterbacks, and the front office of the team he plays for doesn’t seem to care either. It’s actually quite amazing that a guy who had Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens and Cedric Benson on his team managed to throw for just 26 touchdowns and 20 interceptions thinks he’s in a position to say my way or the highway. At least Brett Favre had a Super Bowl ring and was coming off a really good season when he pulled his act in Green Bay. Palmer is about as valuable as a Billy Ripken baseball card. There is no room for him to be making demands.

But again, who can blame him for trying? Who can blame any of those quarterbacks for believing they have what it takes to keep making a difference in the NFL? Every single one of those quarterbacks was an MVP candidate at some point in their career, and they all were loved and recruited by half the league at another point in time. Sadly, that time has come and gone. From Brett to Palmer, the show is over. A generation of quarterbacks is disappearing before my eyes. There’s still Peyton Manning. There’s still Tom Brady. But that’s about it. The future of the quarterback position is upon us, and most fans recognize it. Some time will have to pass before the aforementioned signal callers recognize it, but like me, they too will reach a certain point in their lives when the inevitable is unmistakable.

The post "Zo Knows: Old Quarterbacks Die Hard" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/zo-knows-old-quarterbacks-die-hard-4528/feed/ 0 The NFL’s Ten Most Expendable Players – 2011 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/the-nfl%e2%80%99s-ten-most-expendable-players-2011-4525 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/the-nfl%e2%80%99s-ten-most-expendable-players-2011-4525#comments Mon, 25 Jul 2011 12:37:09 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4525 One of the reasons for this year’s NFL lockout is that football players are some of the most expendable athletes there are in all of professional sports. They may be the toughest, fastest, most athletic athletes there are in sports, but just about every player can be replaced without changing the way you or I [...]

The post "The NFL’s Ten Most Expendable Players – 2011" was originally published at TSW.

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Tony Gonzalez
One of the reasons for this year’s NFL lockout is that football players are some of the most expendable athletes there are in all of professional sports. They may be the toughest, fastest, most athletic athletes there are in sports, but just about every player can be replaced without changing the way you or I enjoy watching the game of football.

That said, there are still some players that are quite indispensable. Peyton Manning really can’t be replaced. It does the Tennessee Titans no good to get rid of Chris Johnson. Losing Troy Polamalu would change the entire structure of the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. And as the San Diego Chargers found out last season, letting Vincent Jackson sit out the season kept their team out of the playoffs in what is a very, weak, weak division.

On the flip side of that, there are several players out there that are very expendable—and I’m not just talking about the 51st guy on the roster. I’m talking about bona fide starters and guys with names that every ardent NFL football fan has heard of. Many of these guys are going to find out just how expendable they are once this lockout is over and free agency turns into a game of musical chairs. So without further adieu, here are the NFL’s ten most expendable players as we enter into the 2011 NFL season.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
There’s no question, that in the history or tight ends, Tony Gonzalez might be the least replaceable guy in the annals of American football. However, Tony is old now. Very old. And his ability to get open and change the game as a receiver has made him very expendable as of late. With just 70 receptions, 656 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, Gonzalez isn’t just expendable to the Falcons, he’s expendable in fantasy football leagues across America! The fact that he was never the best blocker in the world doesn’t help him cause. Tony just better hope the Falcons can’t pick up a healthy Todd Heap or something like that on the free agent market, or else he could see his playing time, or worse yet—his roster spot, become something of the past.

Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles backup quarterback has a lot of value on the trade market right now, and so he’s probably one of the more obviously expendable players in the league right now. With Michael Vick as the Eagles starter, Andy Reid knows that he can’t invest too much time and money into a guy who is not the future of the team right now. Sure, Vick is an injury-case waiting to happen, but a solid backup quarterback (ehemm, Brett Favre) is not a hard thing to find—especially for a guy like Reid, who makes solid backups out of ant hills on a yearly basis.

Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints
Reggie Bush was a star at USC, but he has been everything but since entering the NFL. He’s not the best runner on his team—hell, he isn’t one of the five best runners on the team. As a receiver out of the backfield, he’s great, but he’s no threat to run the ball (just 4.2 yards per carry on 36 attempts last year), then teams don’t account for his rushing ability and his receiving skills are accounted for by the opposing defense. Let’s face it; as long as the Saints can sign a running back—any running back—there’s no chance that Reggie Bush is getting that $12 million salary on his current contract, and he will be cut or that contract will be restructured to reflect his true value once free agency begins after the lockout is over.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
At its roots, the term expendable means I don’t need you to do what I do. Well, the Green Bay Packers job is to win football games, and that they did last season—all the way to the Super Bowl. They did it without Finley too, who was on the IR during the Packers run to the championship. In that time, the Packers found a worthwhile tight end in Donald Lee, who essentially did everything quarterback Aaron Rodgers asked of him. That begs the question, who was making Finley look so good prior to the injury? Was it Finley’s talents or Rodgers’ arm? Maybe it was a little bit of both, but the latter certainly found a way to compensate without Finley when he wasn’t just expendable, but nonexistent during the Packers championship season.

Nick Barnett, LB, Green Bay Packers
See “Jermichael Finley.”

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins actually have a need at running back. As good as Williams and Ronnie Brown have been in the past, they are no longer dependable for 16 games, especially behind a non-veteran offensive line. Williams will likely get the door during free agency, as the Dolphins seek to get a younger, more explosive backfield.

Roy Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Roy Williams is one of the highest paid receivers in the NFL, and yet he’s one of the worst. He’s not even the second best wide receiver on the team, and he was slated to be the first when he was initially traded for a couple of seasons ago. Now the Dallas Cowboys are struggling to get back under the newly proposed cap after a season without one. It’s very likely that Roy-boy is sent packing if the Cowboys have a hard time restructuring his or other players’ contracts.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
Kyle Orton has put up the yardage in Denver, but unfortunately, he may become a victim of young-person potential. The Broncos were moving the ball early last season, but they weren’t winning games. And with a new regime in place, who wants to go with the old quarterback who can’t win? That makes Tim Tebow the likely starter in Denver this season, and it makes Orton a casualty of Tebow’s potential. He may or may not get cut, but he’s not leading that team out of the locker room in NFL Week 1.

Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis Colts
Again, we face the question of, “who’s making the player?” The player himself or the all-world quarterback? Peyton Manning has made many a receiver look like a Pro Bowler in his day, but some guys never get attached with that label. We all just assume that Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison were good receivers all along, they just happen to play with Manning. We also make the same assumption of Dallas Clark. But can we be sure that’s the case—especially with Clark? When Clark went down last season, Jacob Tamme looked like the reincarnation of Ben Coates after being an unheard of entity the year before. That leads me to believe that anybody can play tight end in the Colts system, and if I were Clark this season, I’d do my best to show I was worthy of keeping around—because I’m not 100% sure that he is.

Casey Hampton, NT, Pittsburgh Steelers
Last but not least is one of our generation’s best nose tackles. He never got a lot of credit or publicity, because of the nature of his position, but Casey Hampton was one of the best that ever did it. Keyword: “was.” Bless his soul, but Hampton isn’t what he used to be. In 15 games last season, Hampton had just 20 tackles and a sack. To put that in perspective, he had more than twice as many tackles and sacks a season ago. At 33 years old, it’s natural that Hampton is on the decline. But being on the decline makes you more expendable, and the Steelers would be better off getting a younger, more athletic player to take some snaps away from Hampton during the 2011 NFL football season.

The post "The NFL’s Ten Most Expendable Players – 2011" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/the-nfl%e2%80%99s-ten-most-expendable-players-2011-4525/feed/ 0 Women’s World Cup: Truth Be Told, We Didn’t Deserve It http://thesportswatchers.com/all-sports/women%e2%80%99s-world-cup-truth-be-told-we-didn%e2%80%99t-deserve-it-4520 http://thesportswatchers.com/all-sports/women%e2%80%99s-world-cup-truth-be-told-we-didn%e2%80%99t-deserve-it-4520#comments Mon, 18 Jul 2011 14:35:45 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4520 Miami Herald’s Dan LeBatard has said it over and over about his hometown fans lucky acquiring of the Big Three: “Miami doesn’t deserve this.” And Dan is right. The city of Miami didn’t deserve to get three of the NBA’s best 15 players. They are a fan base that shows up late, if not infrequently [...]

The post "Women’s World Cup: Truth Be Told, We Didn’t Deserve It" was originally published at TSW.

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USA Women's Soccer Team Loses to Japan
Miami Herald’s Dan LeBatard has said it over and over about his hometown fans lucky acquiring of the Big Three: “Miami doesn’t deserve this.”

And Dan is right. The city of Miami didn’t deserve to get three of the NBA’s best 15 players. They are a fan base that shows up late, if not infrequently to games. The town itself is not inclined to celebrate, love or appreciate basketball. And the fans would much rather spend their time on South Beach at a party then at American Airlines Arena—and you know what? So would I!

Of all the fan bases in America, Miamians are among the least deserving of a basketball franchise’s instant rise to relevance. And Americans are just as non-deserving of a World Cup winning Women’s Soccer team.

Hell, Americans aren’t deserving of a World Cup-winning soccer team of any gender! We don’t love soccer. We don’t appreciate soccer. And that’s why I don’t feel sorry for the country or myself after watching our women’s team lose to Japan on penalty kicks in the World Cup final.

Sure, at the end of the day, who’s deserving of anything when it comes to the bird’s eye-view relevance of sports? But relative to the support, care and energy other nations put into their soccer teams, Americans are lucky if we deserve to even be in the tournament—never mind win it.

Now, the earnest soccer fan may disagree with me, and rightfully so. After all, he or she as an individual certainly deserves a championship-caliber soccer team if they put forth the kind of passion and energy other top soccer nations do. However, as with the game of soccer, being a fan is a team sport. In the NFL, if your city doesn’t collectively come together to support the team at the stadium with its dollars, you don’t get to watch the game on television. In college basketball arenas across the nation, it’s practically against the law to sit down before the home team scores. And in baseball, if the road team hits a game-defining homerun into the stands, you better throw that damn ball back on to the field and join your fellow fans in booing the home team.

That same team-mentality is required of US soccer fans if they really want to deserve a championship. If Americans want to feel entitled (and we love being entitled!) to a great team every World Cup, every year and every game, then we need to put the same kind of energy into soccer that we put into the NBA and NFL.

Of course, we have been trying to do that for years in America. I actually grew up playing soccer. Among all the organized sports I wound up playing during my childhood, soccer was my first and possibly my best. I love soccer. Or at least I used to. The second I made my Varsity football team in high school and saw the fun, excitement and athletes involved in the sport of football, I abandoned soccer like an open bar that suddenly starts charging for liquor.

So perhaps I do not even deserve to see the USA Women’s team win a soccer championship. Don’t get me wrong, the women on the team deserve to win. They put in the time, energy and effort that’s required of them to do so. But as fans, Americans do not deserve soccer success. We just started paying attention to women’s soccer five minutes ago, and all of a sudden the entire country jumped on the bandwagon—myself included. But bandwagoners do not deserve medals, championships and world bragging rights. That belongs to the faithful, like the Brazilians, the Germans and apparently, the Japanese.

Some of you may view this as treason. Here I am, a “so-called” American, telling the world that America didn’t deserve to see its country’s team win, and you think I’m being un-American in doing so. But you only think that because we were so close. Had we been eliminated two weeks ago, or if we didn’t make the tournament, you wouldn’t even read this article. And that’s understandable, because we don’t really care about soccer, men’s or women’s, in this country.

Now we can get to a point where we do deserve soccer glory. We can start watching soccer on prime time television, going to MLS games and buying Landon Donovan’s jersey instead of Donovan McNabb’s. But until we get there, I will continue to say that we don’t deserve the women’s soccer team we have, never mind the one that won the World Cup in 1999. I wish, hope and even pray we will win despite our lack of allegiance, but as with any other aspect of life, I expect nothing I have yet to earn.

The post "Women’s World Cup: Truth Be Told, We Didn’t Deserve It" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/all-sports/women%e2%80%99s-world-cup-truth-be-told-we-didn%e2%80%99t-deserve-it-4520/feed/ 0 NBA Lockout Gameplan: Players Should Go Overseas http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-lockout-gameplan-players-should-go-overseas-4516 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-lockout-gameplan-players-should-go-overseas-4516#comments Tue, 12 Jul 2011 11:49:54 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4516 We were doing our best to refrain from lockout talk on TheSportsWatchers.com… until now. But we just couldn’t help ourselves. However, recent transactions have made it abundantly clear how the players can get some leverage in the NBA labor talks and bring the owners closer to their side of the debate. Quite frankly, this idea [...]

The post "NBA Lockout Gameplan: Players Should Go Overseas" was originally published at TSW.

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Deron Williams Playing Overseas
We were doing our best to refrain from lockout talk on TheSportsWatchers.com… until now. But we just couldn’t help ourselves.

However, recent transactions have made it abundantly clear how the players can get some leverage in the NBA labor talks and bring the owners closer to their side of the debate. Quite frankly, this idea could save the 2010-2011 NBA season, and TheSportsWatchers.com does not mind taking credit for it either.

Truthfully, we didn’t come up with the idea. The player that actually came up with it is Deron Williams, who decided to take a $5 million offer to play in Turkey should there be no NBA season, or if the season does not start on time. Of course, if you want to take it a step further, the player who actually came up with going overseas as a negotiating ploy is Josh Childress, who left contract purgatory in Atlanta to take a more lucrative pay day in Europe.

If you don’t see where I’m going with this yet, let me put it out there. NBA Players should start signing contingency contracts to play overseas. Not just some NBA players, all NBA players. Granted, international basketball does not have the profits or revenues to support the full salaries of all NBA players, but they do have the space. If the NBA’s best decide to take some pay cuts, like Deron Williams has, they can effectively get 250-300 players playing overseas and strike a big blow to the NBA and its owners.

I reiterate that there has to be a lot of players involved in this strategy. Williams going off to play in Turkey by himself is not going to do much. While he is exactly the type of player that can get the owners attention, he needs both the Kobe Bryant’s and the Shannon Browns of the world to make this an effective negotiating ploy.

But I see no reason for other players not to join him. First of all, all they would be signing up to do is play basketball. Seems to me like that should be easy enough for basketball players. Second of all, they would be supplementing their incomes. If the players are going to avoid folding for as long as possible, it would be smart to start getting paid once those NBA checks stop getting signed in early November. Lastly, the only downside to playing in Europe, when considering the alternative, is being away from your family. I don’t know the numbers on the two-parent households in the NBA, but the guys without a wife and kids at home, at the very least, should be all about the opportunity to live and work in Europe for a while. And they don’t have to worry about being underpaid or overworked; they have great pro-labor laws in Europe!

With so much incentive to play overseas, I don’t see why the players don’t jump on board and really give the owners something to think about. Now, I know what you’re saying, “How does this actually affect the owners’ ability to negotiate?”

It’s simple. If the players are making relatively “good” money overseas instead of sitting here making nothing like the owners had anticipated, it puts the players in a position of power. Currently, with the overwhelming majority of NBA players lacking any sustainable income from sources outside of basketball, it is pretty hard for them to negotiate when all they can do to make a living is shoot hoops. The owners, on the other hand, have the ability to make money in a myriad of ways, and they stand to lose less money if they miss this upcoming NBA season than if they operate at the same margins they operated at for the last several years.

Negotiating leverage or not, the owners are never going to agree to a deal that forces them to continue to lose money. The players and their representative, Billy Hunter, will eventually have to realize that, whether they want to or not. But if the NBPA wants to fight back on anything beyond a reasonable amount of profit for the owners, they have to have something to fall back on. The owners will not budge against a group of powerless people. Eventually, people who do not make money will fold, and they know that. People making some money, even if it’s a fraction of what they made before, are likely to hold out a lot longer than they would without income—and the owners know that too.

While the owners can afford to lose a season, two seasons is out of the questions. And with the incredible international popularity of basketball (do you have any idea what a Chinese team might pay to have Kobe Bryant on the squad?), it’s not impossible to see players sacrificing NBA life to take a stance—especially if the high-money earners are willing to take that chance.

Is it a fool-proof plan? Of course not. There are going to be a lot of players that are against leaving the NBA and U.S. to play overseas. But if the players are smart negotiators, they will recognize that signing contingency contracts with European teams is the only realistic negotiating ploy they have. If the owners see all of their players making money elsewhere, they will be more likely to meet the players somewhere in the middle. If they see a bunch of guys crying about supporting their families and paying their bills, they know they are in the driver’s seat and will be willing to hold out even longer.

Players, Deron Williams gave you all the game plan; it’s up to you all to execute it.

The post "NBA Lockout Gameplan: Players Should Go Overseas" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-lockout-gameplan-players-should-go-overseas-4516/feed/ 0 Zo Knows: Women’s Soccer Is Worth Watching http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/zo-knows-womens-soccer-is-worth-watching-4510 http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/zo-knows-womens-soccer-is-worth-watching-4510#comments Mon, 11 Jul 2011 10:48:17 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4510 I am not unlike most of you out there, women included, when I say that I was not all that drawn in by the Women’s World Cup when it initially began. I know that the immediate accusation against me admitting that is that I have a sexist agenda, and that I am not giving the [...]

The post "Zo Knows: Women’s Soccer Is Worth Watching" was originally published at TSW.

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Women's Soccer Players over Brazil
I am not unlike most of you out there, women included, when I say that I was not all that drawn in by the Women’s World Cup when it initially began. I know that the immediate accusation against me admitting that is that I have a sexist agenda, and that I am not giving the same chance to female soccer players that I give to male soccer players.

Let me assure you, however, that I am anything but sexist. My lack of initial interest in women’s soccer has nothing to do with the fact that women are in the game, but only with the fact that the best people in the world are not.

It’s an issue of athletic talent, not a player’s gender.

It’s more or less the same reason most sports fans don’t watch women’s basketball. Same game, same sport, and same consequences as men’s basketball, only instead of dunking, there are a lot more jump shots, and dominate players stand out more than Dennis Rodman at a Baptizing ceremony. To put it simply, the lower standard athleticism makes watching women’s soccer less interesting.

However, after USA’s win over Brazil today, athleticism matters no more.

Today, women’s soccer quite possibly gave us the game of the year. They beat the heavily favored Brazilian Women’s soccer team in the quarterfinals of the World Cup, and they did it in about as dramatic a fashion as one can dream up.

First, the US took the initial 1-0 lead on an “own goal” by Brazil. Then the U.S. gave up a goal to Brazil on the second attempt of a penalty kick in regulation. The game would go into extra time, where Brazil caught the US looking for the referees and scored a goal from inside the goalie’s box. But the US women’s soccer team responded with a beautiful cross into the box, where Abby Wambach headed the soccer ball into the net, which tied the game in what was the latest goal ever scored in the history of the World Cup.

In penalty kicks, the US made all five of their kicks, and USA’s namesake, Hope Solo, performed a solo act; blocking one of Brazil’s penalty kicks to give USA the win.

Oh, and did I mention that the US was down a man after Brazil’s first goal?

This was an absolutely amazing game. It was full of physicality, skill and will power. Of course, having grown up around female athletes, I never doubted that any of those traits existed in women’s sports. What I doubted was the exemplary play late in the game and the incredible circumstances surrounding the game. Admittedly, those are not things that are indicative of male sports alone, but rarely do we see games of this magnitude play out like this in female sports. Usually, the better team wins in convincing fashion because of a sheer difference in talent, which is rarely the situation in male sports.

But not today.

Today, U.S. Women’s soccer did more than advance to the semi-finals of the World Cup; they advanced the sport of women’s soccer, and soccer in general, in this nation.

So you can rest assure that I won’t be chilling at Hudson River Café the next time this team takes the field in a meaningful game. I will be watching Wambach, Solo and the rest do their thing for the rest of this World Cup and World Cups of the future. Granted, it’s unlikely we will see one of the three remaining games play out the way it did between USA and Brazil, but at least now I know it’s a possibility.

The post "Zo Knows: Women’s Soccer Is Worth Watching" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/zo-knows-womens-soccer-is-worth-watching-4510/feed/ 2 Can Michael Vick Do It Again? http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/can-michael-vick-do-it-again-4503 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/can-michael-vick-do-it-again-4503#comments Tue, 05 Jul 2011 13:24:44 +0000 Stat Watcher http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4503 I am not one to spend too much time on NFL and NBA lockout talk. Thankfully, we at TheSportsWatchers.com averted an idea to focus most of our summer content on that very subject, even though we knew it would be a wildly searched for topic. Despite our owner’s love for all things media and business, [...]

The post "Can Michael Vick Do It Again?" was originally published at TSW.

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Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles Quarterback
I am not one to spend too much time on NFL and NBA lockout talk. Thankfully, we at TheSportsWatchers.com averted an idea to focus most of our summer content on that very subject, even though we knew it would be a wildly searched for topic. Despite our owner’s love for all things media and business, we could not muster up the strength or passion to give you details on the latest meeting between owners and players. Thus, we give you our regularly scheduled programming: sports!

One question that everybody is asking themselves as they prepare for their yet-to-be-determined fantasy football seasons is whether or not Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick will be as awesome a football player in the 2011 NFL football season as he was in 2010.

However, posing such a question is more than an issue of can he repeat himself. It’s also an issue of, was he that good in the first place?

As wonderful as some of the numbers Vick put up last season were, he fizzled out in the latter half of his season. Then if you take into account some of the unprecedented nature of Vick’s numbers, you may wonder just how likely he is to be the MVP candidate he was a season ago.

Let’s start by looking at just how good Vick was in 2011. When it comes to quarterbacks, I only care about five things: completion percentage, adjusted yards/attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage and passing yards per game—just so I can get an idea of how prolific a quarterback is. In those categories, Vick ranked 10th in completion percentage, 5th in adjusted yards/attempt, 6th in touchdown percentage, 4th in interception percentage, and 9th in passing yards per game.

Not bad, but to put that in perspective, 2010 NFL MVP Tom Brady finished 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st and 13th. As for Aaron Rodgers, he finished 5th, 3rd, 4th, 10th and 7th.

I think it’s safe to say, from looking at those numbers alone, Michael Vick was no Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, albeit, he wasn’t that far away from the latter either. However, Vick was two-dimensional. He was as prolific a runner as he was a passer in 2010, and the numbers bare that. Vick rushed for 9 touchdowns in 2010 and 667 yards, the sixth most ever by a quarterback in NFL history.

So it suffices to say, while he wasn’t better than the MVP of the regular season or of the Super Bowl, Vick was still pretty damn good. Not the best quarterback in the game by any stretch, but a guy teams needed to prepare for, and he was someone that lifted his team to amazing heights, especially when the opposing team was loose with their pass rush.

But as good as Vick was overall, his game was questionable at a very distinct point in the season: the second half of it! To be more exact, it was Vick’s own personal second half of the season that saw him fade off. After coming back from the rib injury, Vick was not the same quarterback that he had been in his first six games.

In those first six games of Vick’s 2010 NFL season, Vick scored 15 touchdowns, had zero turnovers and averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt. However, in Vick’s second six games, Vick did manage to score 15 touchdowns again, but he was much less efficient. He caused 9 turnovers during that period, and his average yards per attempt dropped by over a yard.

Essentially, Vick played like a Hall of Famer in the first six games and he played like the Vick of old in the final six. Which guy is he? One can’t be too sure. But there are a few stats out there that may help us predict the future.

For starters, Vick is unlikely to be the guy we saw in the second part of his season. First, the interceptions and turnovers came under immense pressure from the defense. Part of it was a banged-up offensive line, part of it was bad coaching, and part of it was Vick’s lack of preparedness for the blitz—which we had seen to some extent back in Atlanta. Well, you can rest assure that the Eagles is line is healthier than it was a season ago, Coach Andy Reid will have to prepare the offense for the blitz, and if Vick wants this long-term contract, he better learn to get rid of the ball and avoid injury.

Secondly, Vick isn’t necessarily going to have the success on the ground he had last year. My God, 9 rushing touchdowns is a lot for a quarterback. In fact, it’s the third-most ever by a quarterback. But rushing touchdowns for a quarterback are very happenstance. They don’t run the ball enough to consistently score on the ground, and the 1-yard sneak-ins are completely situational occurrences—not an ability! Besides, history shows us that no quarterback has ever rushed for 5 touchdowns or more came back to rush for more than five touchdowns the following season. In fact, the only quarterbacks to reach 5 after a stellar touchdown-rushing season the year before are Kordell Stewart and Daunte Culpepper. While Vick is undeniably the best rushing quarterback of all-time, the odds say he’s not likely to produce on the ground as much as he did in 2010.

So I have one point in favor of Vick replicating his stats; he will be more prepared for the blitz he saw in the second half of last season. I also have one point against Vick; his rushing touchdowns are likely to be cut in half. So what’s the completely unscientific tiebreaker?

Competition.

As it stands now, there hasn’t been any player movement in the NFL, and with a prologanted lock-out being a likely scenario, who really thinks that there will be a whole lot of wheeling and dealing by the time the season starts? If things stay pretty much as is, the Philadelphia Eagles, themselves included, are in one of the worst defensive divisions in football. The New York Giants were 17th, the Washington Redskins were 21st and the Dallas Cowboys were 31st. Those teams were just bad, particularly bad at defending the pass without much hope of being any better in 2011.

Thus, I fully expect Michael Vick to take advantage of these suspect defenses. Yes, they have a year of Vick in the Philly system on the books now, but it’s not as if he was running some well-oiled machine out there—he was adlibbing, making plays and being an athlete. He will continue to do that in 2011, and for six games against the NFC East, he will look like a Hall of Famer. Against the rest, he won’t be nearly as bad as he was during the second half of the season. Bet against Vick if you want to, but when the allegedly-upcoming 2011 season is all said and done, Vick should be one of the best five quarterbacks in the league.

The post "Can Michael Vick Do It Again?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/can-michael-vick-do-it-again-4503/feed/ 0 It’s a Wide Receiver’s World http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/its-a-wide-receivers-world-4499 http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/its-a-wide-receivers-world-4499#comments Tue, 28 Jun 2011 10:30:19 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4499 Can you feel it? It’s the sound of pads. It’s the smell of barbeque at a tailgate. It’s the sight of collisions. Hell, it’s the sound of another diva wide receiver complaining about not getting enough passes thrown to him. All of that is the feeling of football in the air. Even though September seems [...]

The post "It’s a Wide Receiver’s World" was originally published at TSW.

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NFL's Best Wide ReceiversCan you feel it?

It’s the sound of pads. It’s the smell of barbeque at a tailgate. It’s the sight of collisions. Hell, it’s the sound of another diva wide receiver complaining about not getting enough passes thrown to him.

All of that is the feeling of football in the air. Even though September seems far, far away and both sides of the labor negotiations are even farther apart, football is still the next “interesting” sport on the docket, and you know you can’t wait for it!

However, before you enter the 2011 NFL Season with the same approach you took to the last one, why not take a minute to reevaluate your perception of the league?

Last year, we entered the season with Drew Brees as the Super Bowl champion and Peyton Manning as the runner-up. Both of their respective teams had little running game and depended on their quarterbacks a great deal. And by the end of the last football season, the four finalists for the Lombardi trophy were all teams with big-arm quarterbacks, such as Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Mark Sanchez.

Now, I would be a fool to sit here and say that the majority of football watchers don’t already know that football is a quarterback’s league. There’s really little doubt about that anymore. However, while we recognize the importance of the passing game, I fear that we are not recognizing the importance of great wide receiver.

If you want to win in this league, the whole “conglomeration” of wide receivers just is not working anymore. You have to have a true #1 wide receiver or two really good #2-wideouts that cannot be defended by most of the NFL’s cornerbacks. Don’t believe me? The proof is in the pudding.

Take last year for example. Remember the four finalists I just mentioned? Well, which of those quarterbacks advanced? That’s right; Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. Which two quarterbacks had at least one wide receiver that they could consistently depend on getting open or drawing the double team? You said it! Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger.

With Rodgers throwing to Greg Jennings and Big Ben throwing to either Mike Wallace or Hines Ward, those two quarterbacks were never at a loss for options. Truth be told, neither of those wide receivers had excellent games in the final two matches of the season, but that’s because defenses were too busy taking them out of the game plan.

Greg Jennings didn’t do squat in the Super Bowl, but Jordy Nelson was open like a mug because of the all the double teams Jennings was drawing against a weak Pittsburgh Steelers defense.

And while Mike Wallace had a good effort in the Super Bowl, his team lost that game and he had just six yards in the AFC Championship Game prior to it. Who stepped up in his place though? Well, actually it was the running game, but that was in part because the Jets did not want to leave Mike Wallace one-on-one, not even with their collection of quarterbacks.

As important as quarterbacks have become in the NFL, wide receivers are almost of the same importance. People say Peyton Manning can make any wide receiver into the 2004 version of Brandon Stokley, but the minute Reggie Wayne had a bad start to the season and Dallas Clark got hurt, the Colts passing game looked egregious and people were questioning whether Manning was on the decline.

And don’t forget how old Brett Favre looked when there was no Sidney Rice or a healthy Percy Harvin to chuck the ball to down the field. Injuries to wide receivers forced one of the game’s most heralded quarterbacks off the field and out of the league.

The importance of the wide receiver is why I stressed that the Green Bay Packers get Rodgers some help the day after he won the Super Bowl. Greg Jennings is a true #1, but even with him on the squad, the rest of the lackluster and injury-riddled receiving core of the Packers almost cost that team several playoff games.

Besides, the days of building your organization around defense and an offensive line are far behind us. The Packers just won a Super Bowl without much of either, and the Saints accomplished the same task the year before. If you want to win, invest in the passing game in this league—for the foreseeable future, wide receivers are the hot stock on the market that is NFL football. Like it or not, there’s a reason those wide receivers act like divas that control the league; it’s because on the field, they kind of do.

The post "It’s a Wide Receiver’s World" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nfl/its-a-wide-receivers-world-4499/feed/ 0 The NBA’s Best Players… It’s A Numbers Game http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-nba%e2%80%99s-best-players-it%e2%80%99s-a-numbers-game-4491 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-nba%e2%80%99s-best-players-it%e2%80%99s-a-numbers-game-4491#comments Sun, 26 Jun 2011 18:00:37 +0000 Stat Watcher http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4491 I’m a stat guy, but as most would agree, stats do not tell the entire story. That is why the NBA Playoffs is a conundrum for basketball stat geeks. Why? Well, it’s a numbers game. As a stat guy, I shouldn’t let a relatively small sample size trump the findings of a large sample size—especially [...]

The post "The NBA’s Best Players… It’s A Numbers Game" was originally published at TSW.

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lebron james, dwyane wade, dwight howard
I’m a stat guy, but as most would agree, stats do not tell the entire story. That is why the NBA Playoffs is a conundrum for basketball stat geeks.

Why?

Well, it’s a numbers game.

As a stat guy, I shouldn’t let a relatively small sample size trump the findings of a large sample size—especially if that large sample size embodies—well, everything.

However, with the NBA Playoffs, that’s exactly what stat geeks have to do. As much as we want to take into account an 82-game season, the fact is, players and teams change the way they play in the playoffs, making much of the stats collected during the regular worthless.

Because of that, the end of a postseason has more of an effect on the NBA landscape than it does in any other major sports league. Case and point: LeBron James. Entering the playoffs, I thought he was the best player in the NBA. Now I don’t know if LeBron James is the best player on his team. His shaky performance in just six games was so staggering against the height of NBA competition that I have to change my opinion of where he ranks as a player.

How much so though?

Here are the top 10 players in the NBA:

1. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Call me crazy. Call me irrational. Call me stupid. But don’t call me out of line here. You know and I know that one of the many questions about LeBron’s move to the Miami Heat was whether or not he would remain the best player on his own team. But the regular season nipped that thought in the bud, as LeBron James finished well ahead of Dwyane Wade in the NBA 2011 MVP Vote.

However, once the NBA Playoffs rolled around, it was a different story. All of a sudden, Wade was gaining on LeBron. The lowly Philadelphia 76ers aside, Wade had a great series against the Boston Celtics, while LeBron James closed them out. LeBron James basically took care of the Chicago Bulls himself, but Wade was the man in the NBA Finals. When it was all said and done though, LeBron failed to be “LeBron” when the game was on the line in fourth quarter of the championship round.

While most people like to say that each of the first three quarters matter as much as the fourth quarter, the fact is that much of basketball comes down to whose hands you want the ball in for the final 5 minutes of the game. Not within the final minute. Not in the last ten seconds. Not the final shot. For me, the best basketball players are the ones that do a variety of things for your team throughout the final 5 minutes of a game. The entirety of that final five minutes gives us a better idea of how a player plays in the clutch. The way those other “clutch” scenarios play out are a mere result of luck, and any judgment from those random moments is irrational and nonsensical.

In the 2011 NBA Finals, LeBron James faded in the fourth quarter on basketball’s biggest stage. You can’t be the basketball player if you can’t impose your talent when it counts. In the Finals, we saw Wade, Jason Terry, and of course, Dirk Nowitzki produce in the fourth quarter and make plays in the final five minutes that led their teams to victory. Removing Terry from this equation, as good as Nowitzki was, he was no more efficient than Wade in the Finals, and he only plays one side of the ball. Thus, for the second time in his career, Wade was the best player in the Finals after already being among the top 3 players in the league. So without further adieu, I now anoint Dwyane Wade as the best player in the NBA.

As for the rest of the list, here is how it all pans out.

2. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Dwight Howard should have been the MVP this past season. He was the best defensive player in the league, and he was one of the most efficient offensive players. Without him, the Orlando Magic would have looked like the Golden State Warriors—at best. His improved offensive game (he averaged more points this season than he ever has) helped elevate him above LeBron James for now. If he continues to develop, he can stay ahead of LeBron for the time-being.

3. LeBron James, Miami Heat
Sorry, LeBron, you just weren’t clutch enough. I suppose if you had shown up in the fourth quarters of the NBA Finals, you would still be #1 in my book. Remember all of those “Kobe vs. LeBron” articles we ran? We gave you the nod every time. While we still “might” take you over Kobe, it’s pretty clear that you’re not even the lead dog on your own team anymore.

4. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Chris Paul bounced back nicely this year, and for a second, the Hornets looked like they would be a threat in the West. Still, he needs way more help. Did you see the scrubs he was playing with? Put Paul alongside someone who can actually shoot better than he can, and he my shoot up this list in no time.

5. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
I will admit it; statistically, I’m down on Kobe Bryant. He has shown signs of deterioration for a long time now, and these injuries only demonstrate what age can do to you. However, emotionally, I think he may bounce back. He doesn’t need a surgery and he didn’t play 100 games this season. Maybe he can make a comeback and surpass of some of his perimeter brethren. The numbers, however, suggest he won’t. That said, he’s still better than the guy that knocked him out of the NBA playoffs this past season.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Let’s not jump to conclusions. Dirk was the best player in the NBA throughout the playoffs, but he’s not the best player in the NBA. As I mentioned, statistically, he was outplayed by Dwyane Wade, who went through an injury. And I can’t rank Dirk ahead of guys who can affect the game defensively in a way that Nowitzki wasn’t capable of doing in middle school. Even if this were purely an offensive contest, the only person I could move Dirk ahead of is Dwight Howard, and even that’s close.

7. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Durant is a beast, but he only has one gear. Unfortunately for him, the Dallas Mavericks shut that gear down. He’ll have to learn from Dirk how to stop little guys from taking him out of his game. And he does take a play out of Dirk’s playbook, he should come back with a much more varied offensive game and have his best season ever, just like Dirk did after being embarrassed in the 2006 NBA Finals, coming back to win the MVP in 2007.

8. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
No, Rose did not deserve the MVP. He shouldn’t have even been second, third or fourth. Listen, he’s a great player, top 10 as you can see, but he’s not that efficient and he doesn’t play much defense. He’s Allen Iverson in his prime, maybe a little better, but Iverson at his greatest was never LeBron, Wade or Howard.

9. Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies
This may seem like an overreaction to Randolph’s play during the NBA 2011 Playoffs, but it’s not. Randolph’s numbers suggest he is the second best big man in the league. Yes, he’s not that great at defense, but he was so damn efficient his past season and he rebounds like crazy on a team with a bunch of good rebounders. Pau Gasol would be here, but he disappeared in the postseason. Amare Stoudemire would be head of him as well, but he plays no defense and doesn’t rebound. And believe it or not, I’d rank Tim Duncan ahead of him as well, if it weren’t for the fact that Randolph’s offensive game has a higher ceiling from game to game than Duncan’s does right now.

10. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Westbrook might actually be better than Derrick Rose. Yeah, I said it. If he weren’t sharing the spotlight with Kevin Durant, who knows what his numbers would be. Hell, he already approximates Rose’s production. It’s just a mater of whether or not Westbrook could carry the load every night like that. He certainly showed that he wanted to during the regular and post seasons, as his usage-rate significantly hurt Durant’s chances at an MVP season. But if this guy grows up this off-season and learns how and when to be aggressive, there may come a time next year when the media realizes either Rose isn’t the best point guard in the league or that Westbrook is every bit as good as Rose.

The post "The NBA’s Best Players… It’s A Numbers Game" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-nba%e2%80%99s-best-players-it%e2%80%99s-a-numbers-game-4491/feed/ 1 Is LeBron James the Best Player in the NBA? http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/is-lebron-james-the-best-player-in-the-nba-4486 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/is-lebron-james-the-best-player-in-the-nba-4486#comments Tue, 21 Jun 2011 04:26:31 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4486 Whew! I didn’t think I would have to ask myself this question for a very, very long time. At most, I thought I would ask the general sports-viewing audience, and even then, I didn’t think many more people needed any persuading. But all of a sudden, I too, am no longer sure whether or not [...]

The post "Is LeBron James the Best Player in the NBA?" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Whew! I didn’t think I would have to ask myself this question for a very, very long time. At most, I thought I would ask the general sports-viewing audience, and even then, I didn’t think many more people needed any persuading. But all of a sudden, I too, am no longer sure whether or not [...]

LeBron James Powder Toss Miami Heat
Whew! I didn’t think I would have to ask myself this question for a very, very long time. At most, I thought I would ask the general sports-viewing audience, and even then, I didn’t think many more people needed any persuading. But all of a sudden, I too, am no longer sure whether or not LeBron James is the best player in the NBA.

Issues with LeBron’s off-court actions and statements aside, when James entered the 2011 NBA Finals, he was the best player in the NBA. There’s very little wiggle-room with that statement. He was the most efficient offensive player in the NBA this season. He was the best perimeter defender in the NBA this season. And did I mention he was the two-time reigning MVP?

But what a difference six games make!

I know the NBA Finals is a small sample size, but it’s the most imperative sample size. Not to mention, while it’s convenient to call a series a small sample size, I and many others, have always contended that seven games is enough to determine the better team—so why wouldn’t it be enough to determine the better players?

That’s not to say that Dirk Nowitzki is better than LeBron James, but for six games he was, and if that’s capable of happening, that says something about LeBron James.

The other amazing thing about LeBron and these past NBA Finals is that he was horrible in the fourth quarter. Stats be damned, he looked like a guy who wanted no part of the basketball in the determining minutes of the game. As many people say, the first three quarters count as much as the last one, but that’s on the scoreboard, not on the stat sheet.

You can score crapola in the first three quarters, but if you make just 10 points in the fourth quarter (ala Dirk Nowitzki), then you’re the Finals MVP.

Hell, I can even take it a step farther than that. If you make the final go-ahead shot of the game, and those points are your first points, you’re still the person everyone talks about; ala Steve Kerr, who’s still riding the success of that final shot.

Sorry to say it, but great players have to be great at great moments. When it comes to measuring stature, ability and performance, what you do in crunch time is far more important than what you do when the game is not on the line. And that’s not specific to basketball, it’s specific to life. Do you have any idea how many “A” students go on to become paper-pushers in life? Not that there’s anything wrong with it, but C students like George Bush Jr. (not the greatest politician ever) are running the country because he came up big in the moments leading up to the election.

But I digress.

I could sit here and give you stat after stat to prove that no player in the NBA is as productive and efficient at the game of basketball as LeBron James is. Over the past two seasons, only Dwight Howard even compares. Shot-for-shot, pass-for-pass and defensive possession for defensive possession, LeBron James gets it done collectively better than anybody in the game.

However, when LeBron’s efficiency suddenly fades in the greatest moment of the greatest stage of the greatest season of his life, can I still call the NBA’s most efficient player the best player?

I don’t think I can.

Michael Jordan isn’t Michael Jordan without the Finals performances. Magic Johnson isn’t Magic Johnson without them either. Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, even Big Shot Chauncey Billups are nobodies if they don’t dominate the NBA Finals the way they did. So while I could sit here and be the big, boring stat guy who is out to prove that LeBron is still the best player in the NBA, I’m not going to do that today. I need time to reflect. Time to decide just how much the fourth quarter, the NBA Finals and the ability to win championships really factors into a player’s productivity.

I will tell you one thing; those who say players do not need rings to validate their careers, I’m rejecting your theory out of the blocks. In a game where one player can control so much about the outcome, and in a game where anybody who has even been considered the greatest has won at least one championship, I have to put weight on winning championships. How much weight that is remains to be seen. I just know winning weighs enough to knock LeBron James off the top of my top list.

The post "Is LeBron James the Best Player in the NBA?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/is-lebron-james-the-best-player-in-the-nba-4486/feed/ 1 I Was Wrong, But My Philosophy Still Runs True http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/i-was-wrong-but-my-philosophy-still-runs-true-4480 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/i-was-wrong-but-my-philosophy-still-runs-true-4480#comments Tue, 14 Jun 2011 11:49:04 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4480 Many of you have accused me of playing both sides. When the 2011 NBA season started, I said that the Miami Heat didn’t need “heart” to win the NBA Championship. When the NBA Finals began, I picked the Heat to win in six. When the Dallas Mavericks took the NBA Finals in six games, I [...]

The post "I Was Wrong, But My Philosophy Still Runs True" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Many of you have accused me of playing both sides. When the 2011 NBA season started, I said that the Miami Heat didn’t need “heart” to win the NBA Championship. When the NBA Finals began, I picked the Heat to win in six. When the Dallas Mavericks took the NBA Finals in six games, I [...]

Dirk Nowtizki and Mavericks beat Miami Heat

Many of you have accused me of playing both sides. When the 2011 NBA season started, I said that the Miami Heat didn’t need “heart” to win the NBA Championship. When the NBA Finals began, I picked the Heat to win in six. When the Dallas Mavericks took the NBA Finals in six games, I said that I was rooting for the Mavericks to win all along.
First of all, I hope it’s clear that those aren’t two mutually exclusive positions. Second of all, if I have not been clear, let me say it loud and proud: “I was wrong, America.”

While all of you were predicting that the Miami Heat would lose against the Boston Celtics, then again against the Chicago Bulls, I was picking the Heat to win it all. You all finally got it right when it came to the Finals, and I finally got it wrong when it came to the Finals. The way this thing winds up playing out is that the Dallas Mavericks were the better cohesive unit that played like the proverbial “team,” and the Heat were a lesser composition of talented individuals that did not fit or play well together.

As you know, as much as I understand the notion that teams need chemistry and experience in order to be champions, I never thought it trumped talent. The great John Wooden once said, give me talent over experience any day. And there’s a reason for that. I can teach the things that come with experience, but I can’t teach height, I can’t teach speed and I can’t teach vertical jump.

But when the Mavericks ousted the Miami Heat from the proverbial pedestal, it was a victory for the people who believe in the fact that talent does not wholly trump anything and everything. Granted, it was something that became clear to me when I was in college and during a two-a-day practice on the Columbia football fields, I was confronted with the news that USA Basketball did not win the Gold Medal. There was no doubt in my mind that the USA basketball team had the most talented group of players in the 2004 Olympics, and yet they lost?

It was clear then that chemistry, fit and personalities mattered—to some degree.

However, I thought time together as a group could heal that whole “chemistry” thing, and the 2008 Olympic team proved me right. Again, the USA put together the most talented team, and this time around, they practiced, ran offense and played defense. The other teams played a more inclusive, “team-oriented” brand of European basketball, but the USA had talent, and finally, time on their side. The result? USA won the gold.

Enter the Big Three of the Miami Heat. They certainly got the talent. They came into the 2010-2011 NBA Season with 2 of the NBA’s best 4 players and Chris Bosh. They also signed two well-sought after free agents in Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem. With the latter group sidelined for most of the season, the Big Three still managed to secure one of the best records in the NBA and needed only 15 games to reach to the NBA Finals.

To that point, talent was winning out. Talent beat a Philadelphia 76ers team that while overmatched, did every thing right, and still watched the Heat nearly sweep them. Talent beat a veteran Boston Celtics team, which like Dallas, had all the elements of a “team,” but still lost out when LeBron James and Dwyane Wade played at their best. And then there was Chicago: the epitome of the “team” theory. They had one star, the MVP, and a supporting cast that earned the best record in the NBA. But at the end of the day, all the MVP and the best “team” in the league earned the Chicago Bulls was a five-game series elimination from the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

So entering the Finals, I picked the Heat to win in six games. I had already seen them beat “team” ball. I had already seen them shut down a team with just one great player. I had already seen LeBron and Wade eliminate prolific scorers from games. I had already seen—well, I had already seen everything but what the Dallas Mavericks ultimately brought to the table. And only now, after the fact, lacking any thought or perception whatsoever, do I see what should have been as clear as day to me.

The Dallas Mavericks are the more talented team.

While I was wrong about the winner of the series, it wasn’t my philosophy on basketball that failed me. Talent still wins out in the NBA. And the only experience that a veteran group of players like LeBron, Wade and Bosh need is training camp—well, that and a regular season’s worth of games. That’s all talent needs in order to prevail in a seven-game series in the NBA. That’s my philosophy, and my belief in that philosophy has not been shaken.

To say that Miami lost because Dallas was a more cohesive “team” sounds foolish to me when they already beat the consummate teams that everybody was touting before the NBA Playoffs started. Not to mention, I don’t know anybody who thought the Mavs were a better team than the San Antonio Spurs or Los Angeles Lakers, who Dallas surpassed en route to the Western Conference throne. Let’s face it; the Mavericks were no different “team-wise” than the squads Miami had already beaten during the playoffs. Those teams all shared the ball, shared the moment and played relatively cohesively. Between the Mavericks, Bulls and Celtics, Dallas was the lone team that didn’t play “team defense,” so what does that say about them being this great “team.”

That’s why I choose to give Dallas the real respect they deserve. They didn’t win this series just because they were a more cohesive “team” than Miami; they won it because they were a more talented team than Miami.

Yes, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James are better than Dirk Nowitzki. But after that, the pickings are slim. I will honestly debate the fact that the Mavericks had several players not named Dirk that are often as efficient as Chris Bosh is. All of Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry can be as good as Chris Bosh on any given night given the role that Bosh plays now. And when you account for everything those players do, those players are in the same conversation as Chris Bosh when it comes to efficiency.

Now while I understand some people might not agree with that, you do have to concede that JJ Barea, Jason Kidd and Peja Stojakovic were better at what they did this postseason than what Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem were at what they did this postseason, right?

That’s a lot of talent that the Mavericks put out there. In fact, they have 8 players that were above league average in terms of PER. So it would seem to me, that when I tried to pick the more talented team, the only place I went wrong was by going too top heavy. My philosophy is broken not because “team-ball” trumps talent, but because having the best player in the game isn’t “AS” big of a factor as I thought it was. Don’t get me wrong, having Dwyane Wade and LeBron James is a tremendous advantage. But when the Mavericks have 8 guys capable of scoring 15 points and can shoot lights out from 3-point land at so many positions, the diversity and depth of talent seems to trump having two stars. Just ask the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers.

Before I get accused of making excuses, let me say this again: I was wrong. I was wrong to pick the Heat. Clearly, the Mavericks were better than the Heat. But I won’t admit that I was wrong about talent. Talent still trumps all, and that “team” theory, as it relates to chemistry and all that intangible stuff, still doesn’t hold water, other than you have to put the time in at practice. So go make your Big Threesomes NBA owners and players. Don’t believe that this somehow disproves the philosophy that having the best players results in championships. It’s still the case. The more talented team won this year’s finals, and the same thing will happen again next year—only this time, philosophy “adjusted” and all, I plan on having a better idea of just who the more talented team is.

The post "I Was Wrong, But My Philosophy Still Runs True" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/i-was-wrong-but-my-philosophy-still-runs-true-4480/feed/ 0 The Miami Heat Are Not Your 2011 NBA Finals Champions http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-miami-heat-are-not-your-2011-nba-finals-champions-4475 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-miami-heat-are-not-your-2011-nba-finals-champions-4475#comments Mon, 13 Jun 2011 06:32:29 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4475 Admit it, America. That’s what you feel right now. As great as it is that the Dallas Mavericks beat the Miami Heat in 6 games to win the 2011 NBA championship, it’s even sweeter for you that the Miami Heat lost in six. With all due respect to the Dallas Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki, outside [...]

The post "The Miami Heat Are Not Your 2011 NBA Finals Champions" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Admit it, America. That’s what you feel right now. As great as it is that the Dallas Mavericks beat the Miami Heat in 6 games to win the 2011 NBA championship, it’s even sweeter for you that the Miami Heat lost in six. With all due respect to the Dallas Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki, outside [...]

LeBron, Bosh and Wade lose to Mavericks
Admit it, America. That’s what you feel right now. As great as it is that the Dallas Mavericks beat the Miami Heat in 6 games to win the 2011 NBA championship, it’s even sweeter for you that the Miami Heat lost in six. With all due respect to the Dallas Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki, outside of fans from my home state of Texas, the 2011 NBA Finals were about the Miami Heat losing.

I was walking home with a friend after watching the game at a bar in New York City, when something she said epitomized exactly how everyone else on Earth felt about this Miami Heat team. She said, “I just don’t like the way they expected to win.” Now of course, there’s nothing the Miami Heat said prior to the series or any of these games that would lead you to believe that they “expected” to win. Sure, they probably thought it and had the confidence that they would win, but other than “cough-gate,” the Miami Heat said and did every thing right during the NBA Playoffs. Now, you can go all the way back to the premature celebration in the preseason when the Heat’s Big Three came out of the ground to an arena full of smoke, but if you still hate the Heat for that, you have your own personal problems.

Certainly, my friend isn’t the only one that hates the Heat. At the bar, I heard people saying they think the Heat are selfish, don’t play as a team, and don’[t have enough heart. I heard people actually say things like J.J. Barea has more heart than certain Heat players, or that some Heat players weren’t trying all that hard. Again, there’s no evidence that proves any of that, but people believe what they want to believe when the story line fits their confirmation bias.

More specifically, people are going to hate this Heat team so long as LeBron James is on it. America didn’t like “The Decision,” they didn’t like LeBron counting off his championship rings and they certainly didn’t like his attitude—or did they?

A mere 12 months ago, LeBron James could do no wrong. He was a basketball prodigy who said and did everything right from age 16 to age 25. But after one mere decision that moved him from Cleveland to Miami, people began to hate everything about him. Twelve months ago, he was a great dresser, a media darling, a commercial success, the next Michael Jordan, and a good looking guy. Now as I roam the streets of New York, read blogs and have random chats with fellow bar-goers, everyone thinks LeBron’s press-conference suit was too snazzy for a Finals loser, he disrespects the media, his commercials suck and his receding hairline is unattractive.

LeBron can do no good.

The Heat can do no good—at least not in the eyes of a basketball-watching nation that can’t help but wait to see a guy fail merely because they don’t like a personal decision he made—one many of them would have made, or relatively speaking, have made.

I will confess though; I too was happy that the Miami Heat loss, and it’s not because I’m from Texas and am rooting for the Mavericks. I just like anarchy. My rooting against the Heat had nothing to do with a disdain for LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh. No, I just hate Eddie House! Just kidding.

But seriously, I (incorrectly) predicted Miami to win the championship, and rooted for them several times throughout the 2011 NBA Playoffs. The only reason I rooted against them at all is because of the very crap-storm that would ensue after they lost. It’s nothing personal, and I still think LeBron James is the best player in the NBA (as of this moment anyway). I just enjoy the soap opera that is sports, and this off-season wouldn’t have been as dramatically-inclined as it now will be had the Heat done what they set out to do.

For those of you who also rooted against Miami winning it all because you too wanted to see the drama that ensued, obviously, I think you have great taste in entertainment. However, for those of you who hated against the Heat just because of your own personal feelings against Miami and LeBron James, well, you’re entitled to do so. But own up to it. Admit it. Hell, enjoy it. Your dream came true—this year. The Miami Heat did not win the NBA championship. LeBron James is not Michael Jordan. And as Dwyane Wade put it, America is happy now…the Miami Heat are losing.

The post "The Miami Heat Are Not Your 2011 NBA Finals Champions" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-miami-heat-are-not-your-2011-nba-finals-champions-4475/feed/ 0 For the Miami Heat, Defense Wins Game 3 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/for-the-miami-heat-defense-wins-game-3-4468 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/for-the-miami-heat-defense-wins-game-3-4468#comments Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:07:30 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4468 Defense wins championships. And when…I mean if the Miami Heat end up turning last night’s NBA Finals Game 3 victory into a championship over the Dallas Mavericks, it will 100% be because of their defense. In three games so far, the Mavericks have shot over 40% just one time, and that of course was the [...]

The post "For the Miami Heat, Defense Wins Game 3" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Defense wins championships. And when…I mean if the Miami Heat end up turning last night’s NBA Finals Game 3 victory into a championship over the Dallas Mavericks, it will 100% be because of their defense. In three games so far, the Mavericks have shot over 40% just one time, and that of course was the [...]

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Defense
Defense wins championships.

And when…I mean if the Miami Heat end up turning last night’s NBA Finals Game 3 victory into a championship over the Dallas Mavericks, it will 100% be because of their defense.

In three games so far, the Mavericks have shot over 40% just one time, and that of course was the one game they won. But in Games 1 and 3, the Mavericks were 37% and 40% from the field, which are worse percentages than what the NBA’s worst shooting team, the Milwaukee Bucks, shot all season long.

Any fan of the sport of basketball should recognize that this is just the beginning. The Heat’s defense is only going to get better throughout the series. They are riding talent and youth to one of the best defensive performances by an NBA Playoff team ever, and defense is the one thing that will show up each and every night.

On a night when the Heat gave up 34 points to Dirk Nowitzki, they held the Mavericks to just 86 points, 8 three-pointers and forced 14 turnovers. The Mavericks did have some good points, having gotten to the line 27 times while grabbing 12 offensive rebounds. However, the fact that Miami doubled Nowitzki a lot and still managed to hold him 1 assists while forcing his teammates to shoot 17 for 49 from the field speaks volumes about what the Heat did defensively.

Tactically, you don’t have to look much further than the performances of Game 2 stars, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry to see what defensive changes Miami made in Game 3. Shawn Marion was just 4 of 12 from the field after he lit Miami up last game. This time around, Miami made sure to force Marion out and take away much of his slash and cut game. As for Terry, who was a less-than-mundane 5 of 13 from the field, he once again struggled with the taller more athletic presence of the Heat’s two wingmen. Jose Juan Barea didn’t help either with his 2 of 8 performance from the field.

So it’s pretty clear what Miami’s strategy is going forward. They are going to force Dirk Nowitzki to be a hero. They are going to take everyone else away, while making Dirk earn everything he gets with defense by Udonis Haslem and the occasional double team. Certainly, a few more made shots on passes out of that double-team and I’m probably sitting here writing a piece about how Dirk saved the series. However, don’t be mistaken, there’s a reason the Mavericks aren’t hitting the long-ball off the double-team—the Heat close out a lot faster than the Thunder, Lakers or Trailblazers do. So while the Mavericks do get okay looks from three, they aren’t what they usually are.

Unfortunately for Dallas, that aspect of the game isn’t going to change. The Heat will bring their defense every game this series just they did in every series before. As a result, those open three-pointers won’t be all that open, and the Mavericks shooting percentage, once the best in the league, won’t be all that high.

The post "For the Miami Heat, Defense Wins Game 3" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/for-the-miami-heat-defense-wins-game-3-4468/feed/ 0 NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat Win in Six http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-finals-prediction-miami-heat-win-in-six-4464 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-finals-prediction-miami-heat-win-in-six-4464#comments Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:54:59 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4464 It’s just 10 minutes before tip-off of the 2011 NBA Finals, but I had to let TheSportsWatchers’ prediction be known. The Miami Heat will win the championship. I said it once the season began, I said it at the start of the NBA playoffs, and I’m saying it now. The Heat just have too much [...]

The post "NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat Win in Six" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> It’s just 10 minutes before tip-off of the 2011 NBA Finals, but I had to let TheSportsWatchers’ prediction be known. The Miami Heat will win the championship. I said it once the season began, I said it at the start of the NBA playoffs, and I’m saying it now. The Heat just have too much [...]

It’s just 10 minutes before tip-off of the 2011 NBA Finals, but I had to let TheSportsWatchers’ prediction be known.

The Miami Heat will win the championship. I said it once the season began, I said it at the start of the NBA playoffs, and I’m saying it now. The Heat just have too much talent.

A week ago, I considered picking the Dallas Mavericks, because Dirk Nowitzki may be an impossible cover. Truth is, I don’t know how impossible a cover he will be for LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Hell, Joel Anthony might be able to guard him.

However, the reason the Heat are going to win the NBA championship has nothing to do with Dirk and has everything to do with their five games against Chicago. Miami proved that one superstar, no matter the supporting cast, could beat their three superstars. While some may say that Dallas has a supporting cast of scorers that tops that of the Chicago Bulls, I don’t know how many people were saying that when Chicago finished with the best record in the NBA.

So I’m no fool. I won’t let history do me in. I learn from the past, even when I didn’t make a mistake. Simply put, the Heat have three stars and the Mavericks have one. Need I say more?

Heat win in 6.

The post "NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat Win in Six" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-finals-prediction-miami-heat-win-in-six-4464/feed/ 0 NBA Finals Offer LeBron Chance at Jordan Throne http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-finals-offer-lebron-chance-at-jordan-throne-4455 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-finals-offer-lebron-chance-at-jordan-throne-4455#comments Mon, 30 May 2011 21:38:49 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4455 Here we are. The 2011 NBA Finals. Playing for the NBA championship is essentially the place everyone with any common sense thought the Miami Heat would wind up. Certainly, Dallas comes as a bit of a Finals participant surprise (somewhat of a surprise, I took out 20:1 odds that they’d win the whole thing!). However, [...]

The post "NBA Finals Offer LeBron Chance at Jordan Throne" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Here we are. The 2011 NBA Finals. Playing for the NBA championship is essentially the place everyone with any common sense thought the Miami Heat would wind up. Certainly, Dallas comes as a bit of a Finals participant surprise (somewhat of a surprise, I took out 20:1 odds that they’d win the whole thing!). However, [...]

LeBron James and Michael JordanHere we are. The 2011 NBA Finals.

Playing for the NBA championship is essentially the place everyone with any common sense thought the Miami Heat would wind up. Certainly, Dallas comes as a bit of a Finals participant surprise (somewhat of a surprise, I took out 20:1 odds that they’d win the whole thing!). However, the Heat have the two best players in the NBA, and we shouldn’t be shocked that they are four games away from winning the NBA championship.

These NBA Finals have a lot riding on them. The media and fans really, really want the Miami Heat to lose. They don’t care to see the player manifestation of greatness, and they don’t want LeBron to succeed after “The Decision.” Other NBA players won’t admit this, but they know that if Miami proves championship-worthy, the NBA competitive landscape will have been changed for the foreseeable future. And people from Cleveland, specifically, would rather forfeit 100 years of sports success than see LeBron James hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in two weeks time.

Of course, legacies are on the line too. Dwyane Wade can become a two-time champion. Dirk Nowitzki can get his first championship. Mark Cuban can prove that he is not the Daniel Snyder of the NBA. And Pat Riley can again ascend to the top of the NBA brain trust.

But the person with the most on the line is undoubtedly LeBron James. Say what you will about “The Decision,” the pre-season championship talk or the fact that he bailed on Cleveland, but you can’t call the man a bad player. He’s a two-time MVP (he should have at least 3 MVP awards, if not 4), he carried this Miami Heat team on his back for most of the regular season, throughout the playoffs and especially against the Chicago Bulls. And of course, the guy does nothing but say and do the right things as a public figure and spokesperson for the NBA.

Despite all of that, the game of basketball is about winning. And in a game in which only 10 people are on the court, one player makes a whole lot of difference. One player can make all of the difference. From Bill Russell and Kareem Abdul-Jabaar to Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, we have seen single players not only change their respective teams but change the entire league.

And then there’s Michael Jordan.

Jordan changed the world—well, the world with respect to basketball. Not only did the Chicago Bulls get better, the NBA got better and USA basketball got better. Furthermore, the entire world of basketball got better. Jordan’s influence on the game was that big. His ability to win games, dominate the scoreboard and make his teammates better has caused the way people perceive, play and understand basketball to change. And for that reason, there has only been one Michael Jordan.

But can LeBron be the next Jordan?

It’s a ridiculous question from a subjective point of view. After all, Jordan introduced new people to the game, and then he changed the game. He brought a new style to basketball that everyone has since replicated. He made it okay to be a bit more selfish, so long as you were efficient. He made defense a requirement of being deemed one of the best players ever. He won dunk contests. He sold shoes. He won MVPs. He sold underwear. He played during a time when basketball was played like football and yet he won as the most graceful player on the court—without ever being pushed around. He overcame battles—internally and externally. He was revered by all and hated by none. He turned a losing franchise into six-time champions, and he made nobody coaches and players into perennial NBA greats.

So yeah—subjectively, Jordan may never be replaced, because a lot of what he accomplished was the result of great timing.

However, objectively, LeBron can be Jordan. Let’s start with the easy stuff: the stats—the stuff that has already happened.

People will easily throw around the fact that Jordan is the better scorer, but that’s not necessarily true. Jordan averaged 33 points per game in the postseason, versus LeBron’s 28. LeBron’s scoring average will probably go down, as it is at a mere 26 this season with Wade and Bosh on his team.

However, when we’re talking about averages of 28 and 33, really high numbers, we need not look at the prolificacy but the efficiency. Essentially, when it came to scoring on a shot for shot basis, LeBron and Jordan are the same. Jordan’s post-season true-shooting percentage is 56.8%. LeBron’s is 56.2%. LeBron’s effective field-goal percentage is a tad bit lower than Jordan’s (0.8%), but that just means LeBron is better at getting to the free-throw line. Jordan isn’t even a much better three-point shooter, hitting just 33% of his threes versus LeBron’s 32% clip. Granted, these numbers give a slight edge to Jordan, but if the rest of LeBron’s career looks like it did the last three seasons, he will easily surpass Jordan in those categories.

Rebounding shouldn’t even be argued. LeBron is a better rebounder. If this were a pound-for-pound sport, Jordan would get the edge, but in the NBA, size matters and it doesn’t count against you.

Passing is something LeBron gets the edge in as well. LeBron assists on 34% of his team’s field goals in the playoffs, while Jordan did so on just 28%. Funny thing is that assist-percentages tend to go down the better the team around a player gets. So LeBron could come back toward’s Jordan percentage in the next few years. Thus, the passing category isn’t as definitive for LeBron as it may seem, especially given that LeBron turns the ball over a lot more than Jordan ever did.

Defensively, this is where the stats can lie. I personally don’t have any defensive/plus minus ratios for Jordan, and even if I did, that’s not a perfect stat—not even when adjusted. That said, possession for possession, LeBron’s teams have allowed fewer points in the playoffs than Jordan’s did. Now that could be a result of the eras they play in, as much as it could be a result of the teams they played for. When looking at some of the defensive statistics, like rebounding, steals and blocks though, one might lean toward the fact that LeBron’s presence on defense is a bit stronger than that of Jordan’s.

In looking at the stats, we see these players aren’t far apart. In fact, it’s hard to argue one player over the other, statistically. But that’s just what the numbers say. What about the intangibles?

Listen, I’m not going to sit here and talk about leadership, will or sportsmanship. I might be willing to have a conversation on clutchness; however, I don’t have the appropriate stats for Jordan. What I will discuss is the one intangible that matters in basketball: winning.

I know winning NBA championships is more than a reflection of a single player. However, basketball is the closest team sport there is to having one player control the outcome of a game. That’s why one player can change an entire team. In fact, I have three minimum requirements when it comes to determining who’s a Hall of Famer. One, your team must consistently make the playoffs. Two; you must have advanced out of the first round at some point in your life. And three; if you have another player of high-caliber on your team, you should be a championship contender.

LeBron met all three of those requirements, even before he came to Miami. However, there’s one more requirement when it comes to being considered one of the best NBA players; the number of rings on your fingers.

Sorry, I know it may not be fair, neutral or objective, but winning matters to me in this sport. I don’t put the same pressure on football players, baseball players or hockey players, because we’ve always seen the best player in those sports fail to win it all. But in basketball, the best guys all have championships. Hell, most of them have multiple championships. So to tell me that championships don’t correlate with greatness is unthinkable, and while that may not be considered a statistically-driven statement, it’s pretty damn close to it.

LeBron has to win rings if he’s to surpass Jordan, and he has to win a lot  of them. In fact, given his retreat down to Miami, I don’t think six will do it. Hell, four championships in Cleveland might have done it, but six in Miami would still make it hard. LeBron would literally have to win all six NBA Finals MVPs in those six championships, and that’s hard to do now with Dwyane Wade on his team.

I wrote at the beginning of the season that LeBron can’t be Jordan. In my haste, admittedly, I failed to say that it’s going to be really hard for him to surpass Jordan, and that I don’t believe he’ll do it as a result of deferring a stint as the main man in Cleveland. However, if health and luck are on his side, and he can win 6 championships and 6 Finals MVPs, then yeah, he certainly can be the next Jordan, and as I’ve illustrated, the statistics prove that he’s about as close an approximation as we have ever seen. But without the wins, I can’t see it. The 2011 NBA Finals will give LeBron yet another crack at the right path to His Airness’s throne, unfortunately, that path has more twist and turns than the yellow-brick road, and LeBron’s red Heat shoes aren’t quite ruby slippers.

The post "NBA Finals Offer LeBron Chance at Jordan Throne" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-finals-offer-lebron-chance-at-jordan-throne-4455/feed/ 1 An Epic NBA Playoff Collapse: Five Reasons the Thunder Lost to Dallas http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/an-epic-nba-playoff-collapse-five-reasons-the-thunder-lost-to-dallas-4447 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/an-epic-nba-playoff-collapse-five-reasons-the-thunder-lost-to-dallas-4447#comments Tue, 24 May 2011 12:25:38 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4447 By now you have heard the news already. Last night’s Dallas Mavericks come-from-behind win over the Oklahoma City Thunder was the first time in 15 years that a team ever lost after having a 15-point lead with less than five minutes left in an NBA Playoff game. Needless to say, what happened to the Thunder [...]

The post "An Epic NBA Playoff Collapse: Five Reasons the Thunder Lost to Dallas" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> By now you have heard the news already. Last night’s Dallas Mavericks come-from-behind win over the Oklahoma City Thunder was the first time in 15 years that a team ever lost after having a 15-point lead with less than five minutes left in an NBA Playoff game. Needless to say, what happened to the Thunder [...]

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, NBA Playoffs
By now you have heard the news already. Last night’s Dallas Mavericks come-from-behind win over the Oklahoma City Thunder was the first time in 15 years that a team ever lost after having a 15-point lead with less than five minutes left in an NBA Playoff game.

Needless to say, what happened to the Thunder was epic. What’s amazing about this is that it was almost nearly a 100% offensive-related collapse that happened to the playoffs most offensively prolific team. If you told me that during any stretch in which Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were both on the court for 5 minutes and the Thunder would manage to score just 2 points in that amount of time, I might have smacked you in the face—it’s just that unbelievable…or at least it was.

So how did it happen? How did the Thunder blow a 15-point lead with 4:33 left on the clock?

Oh let me count the ways…

1. James Harden fouling out with a dumb foul: It’s one thing to foul out with 4:33 left on the clock in a game that your team must have, but it’s an entirely moronic thing to do it when you’re the length of the court away from the basketball goal that you are defending. Harden made a silly play by fouling Dirk Nowitzki on the other side of half-court. Not only did that give the Mavericks a free two points, but it also sent the Thunder’s third-best scorer to the bench. For the rest of the game, Durant was the lone wing man that could do anything, forcing Russell Westbrook into a compromising position when the Mavs denied Durant the basketball. As you can imagine, the Thunder’s offense was extinct from that point on, and Durant managed not to score in the final 4:33.

2. The opposite of heady plays: It’s a hard thing to pick-in on, but when you’re up by 15 points with 5 minutes to go, you’re not the one that’s supposed to be playing basketball out of desperation. With the ball going out of bounds, Westbrook tried to dive off the court and save it. Heady play, right? Except for the fact that the ball was last touched by Dallas and it didn’t even look like it was debatable. The end result was that in his effort to save the ball, Westbrook was called for stepping out and the Mavericks retained possession. Again, it’s hard to pick on Westbrook for hustling, but it’s the “not even close” replay that makes his decision look iffy.

3. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers: You don’t blow leads like this by playing sound basketball. It seemed like Westbrook couldn’t wait to give the ball back every opportunity he had the chance to do so, as he turned it over twice in the last 7 minutes. Kevin Durant though was just as kind, turning the ball over 9 times in total, including a crucial turnover in the last five minutes, when Shawn Marion just seemed to be in Durant’s head.

4. Another dumb, “I can’t believe you did that,” foul: God bless Nick Collinson’s heart, because he is doing his absolute best to defend Nowitzki, but with less than 10 seconds to go and up by two points, you can’t foul him. You just can’t do it. First of all, he’s not quick enough to drive on Collinson, so immediately, fouling Dirk should never come into play in that situation—simply back off of him. Now, I know giving him the jumper is not likely a successful strategy either, but in times of need, you go with the odds, and sending Dirk to the free throw line, where he can tie the game with 7 seconds left, just doesn’t fall in the category.

5. Horrible all-around shot selection: Forget the fact that Thabo Sefolosha was taking game-deciding shots with 20 seconds left, the fact that the Thunder took only two shots within 15 feet of the rim during the last 10 minutes, or the fact that Westbrook missed six shots in the last 5 minutes of the game—what the hell was Durant doing with that final shot? Who pulls up for a contested 35-footer? And what kind of 6’11 wingman gets blocked when he doesn’t. Talk about not using your height! The fact that Durant couldn’t get a better shot up in that situation is nobody’s but his own. He has to do a better job of freeing himself up, and he shouldn’t even catch the ball that far away from the rim in that situation.

The post "An Epic NBA Playoff Collapse: Five Reasons the Thunder Lost to Dallas" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/an-epic-nba-playoff-collapse-five-reasons-the-thunder-lost-to-dallas-4447/feed/ 0 The Heat Burn the Bulls and Kenny Smith’s Theory http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-heat-burn-the-bulls-and-kenny-smiths-theory-4443 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-heat-burn-the-bulls-and-kenny-smiths-theory-4443#comments Mon, 23 May 2011 12:00:22 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4443 Dwyane Wade was feeling himself a little bit too much when he said the world was a better place since the Miami Heat were losing, but he certainly wasn’t wrong in suggesting that a lot of people didn’t care to see the Miami Heat and the Big Three thrive. And assuming that’s the case, then [...]

The post "The Heat Burn the Bulls and Kenny Smith’s Theory" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Dwyane Wade was feeling himself a little bit too much when he said the world was a better place since the Miami Heat were losing, but he certainly wasn’t wrong in suggesting that a lot of people didn’t care to see the Miami Heat and the Big Three thrive. And assuming that’s the case, then [...]

Lebron Wade Bosh
Dwyane Wade was feeling himself a little bit too much when he said the world was a better place since the Miami Heat were losing, but he certainly wasn’t wrong in suggesting that a lot of people didn’t care to see the Miami Heat and the Big Three thrive. And assuming that’s the case, then a whole lot of people just got a whole lot less happy last night, as the Heat beat the Chicago Bulls 96-85 to go up 2-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

Say what you will about the Heat, but they are good. Their three stars carried them to victory again last night. Chris Bosh, believe it or not, was last night’s leading man with 34 points. LeBron James and Wade scored 22 and 17, respectively, while nobody else on the Heat scored more than 8 points.

Why was the unbalanced attack of the Miami Heat able to outdo a Bulls team that is supposed to be the more team-oriented contender?

Talent.

I was very surprised when going into this series, all three TNT analysts, and all three ESPN analysts picked the Chicago Bulls to win this series. Actually, it was quite amazing. Granted, I’m not surprised on one hand, because I know that many members of the media are sour on the Heat and would love to see this “experiment” come crashing to an end. However, people in the media would much rather be right than stubborn, so part of me has to believe that at least the majority of the people who picked the Bulls actually believe Chicago is the better team. And then Kenny Smith explained it to me.

I don’t have the tape, but during the pre-game show leading up to Bulls-Heat Game 1, Kenny Smith picked the Bulls, and in doing so, explained that he thought the Bulls had the better team. By “team,” he meant that they share the ball, have a great bench, and have players that can contribute in a lot of different ways. That’s exactly what Miami isn’t, and so in Kenny’s mind, the Bulls were the better basketball team and would win the series because of that.

I don’t disregard the “team” theory, because it does play some role in basketball. After all, how on earth does the 2004 U.S. Olympic team not win the Gold Medal if “team basketball” does not play a factor? Because no one will question whether or not we had the best talent—that team simply didn’t play well together.

Still, the Miami Heat is not filled with a bunch of guys who have never played a certain brand of basketball and are learning to play with one another over the course of just a few weeks. Unlike that Olympic team, the Miami Heat, star-driven or not, practice everyday, have been playing with one another since last August, and they run a typical, NBA-style offense that most of the players on this team have played in throughout their professional basketball careers. So no matter how driven by their super stars they are, the Heat still play some semblance of “team” basketball.

This is why it’s absurd for anyone to think that the Bulls were the clear favorites to win this series. Simply put, the Heat has more talent than the Bulls. If you’re picking teams, three of the first four picks go to the Miami Heat. And MVP or not, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are better than Derrick Rose, no matter how much the NBA writers will tell you otherwise.

What has happened through the first three games of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals is that the more talented team has prevailed. As I mentioned earlier, nobody outside of Bosh, LeBron and Wade scored more than 8 points for the Heat. But those three combined for 73 points, and led a defensive surge that saw the Bulls score just 15 points in the first quarter and shoot 41.6% from the field for the game. Team ball or not, having three players on the court that are capable of the offensive and defensive wizardry that these guys are capable of is enough to beat a Bulls team that doesn’t even have one of the two best players on the basketball court.

I have been wrong many times before, and I am sure that I will be wrong again, but this Heat team isn’t going to lose to the Bulls this series. It’s just not a fair matchup. The Bulls can have all the offensive chemistry and bench play they want, but as long as the Heat can get five people they have practiced with for the last 10 months on to the court, their talent will outdo that of the Bulls. You saw that talent prevail last night, and you will see that talent prevail this Miami Heat team to the NBA Finals.

The post "The Heat Burn the Bulls and Kenny Smith’s Theory" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-heat-burn-the-bulls-and-kenny-smiths-theory-4443/feed/ 0 Is Chris Bosh Better than Horace Grant? http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/is-chris-bosh-better-than-horace-grant-4433 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/is-chris-bosh-better-than-horace-grant-4433#comments Wed, 18 May 2011 13:00:55 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4433 When I was watching Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals, I couldn’t help but think about how much was being asked of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James to win the game for the Miami Heat. Ultimately, they lost, handedly, and neither of those two players came up big. On the contrary, Chris [...]

The post "Is Chris Bosh Better than Horace Grant?" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> When I was watching Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals, I couldn’t help but think about how much was being asked of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James to win the game for the Miami Heat. Ultimately, they lost, handedly, and neither of those two players came up big. On the contrary, Chris [...]

Horace Grant of the Chicago Bulls
When I was watching Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals, I couldn’t help but think about how much was being asked of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James to win the game for the Miami Heat. Ultimately, they lost, handedly, and neither of those two players came up big. On the contrary, Chris Bosh, the third-great player on the team, poured in 30 points. It was a great effort from the big man, unfortunately and understandably, he doesn’t have as many of those great nights as he did when he was the best player on his team.

Chris Bosh on Eastern Conference All-Star TeamEven though Bosh scored 30, he’s still the third-wheel on the Miami Heat. However, when he first came to Miami, this vehicle was supposed to be a tricycle. But since last July, it has turned into more of a bicycle, with the occasional spare tire—you know, just in case.

So it dawned on me, despite Bosh being the wonderfully talented player that he was presumed to be coming in the 2011 NBA basketball season, is Chris Bosh really nothing more to James and Wade than what Horace Grant was to Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen?

The numbers don’t lie.

Before I get to the details, I will point out that the statistics I’m using are a little favorable to Horace Grant in this argument, but not because of me—I’m just trying to make the most accurate assessment that I can. So for Chris Bosh’s numbers, I’m using this season—the lone season in which he’s comparable to Horace Grant as the supporting actor on his team. For Grant, I’m using his 1991-1992 season with the Chicago Bulls in order to get him at his prime, when he was contributing to a championship-caliber team. That is also when Grant was 26, which happens to be the same age Bosh was going into this season. Still, by selecting one of Grant’s best years, in which he was also in his fifth season with Scottie and Jordan, I’m picking a year when Grant was comfortable with the offense, as opposed to the year I’m choosing for Bosh, when he probably hasn’t settled in as the third-man on this Miami Heat basketball team.

My defense for using Grant’s 5th season in the NBA is twofold. Firstly, I’m asking the question is Bosh better than Grant (as a third-man), so why not compare Bosh against one of Grant’s best seasons? And secondly, they’re the same age in this comparison, so it actually hits both of them in their athletic prime, despite the fact that Bosh’s numbers might “stabilize” once he gets used to playing with LeBron and Wade.

On to the comparison…

Scoring
Per 36 minutes, Bosh was an 18.5 points per game player this season, while Grant was 14.5 point per game scorer. Clearly, Bosh is more prolific. However, he takes four more shots per game than Grant does, so we can’t give him the nod quite yet.

A closer look at the numbers shows that Grant was far more efficient when it comes to shooting the ball. Grant had the higher field-goal percentage, 57.8% vs. Bosh’s 49.6%. Some will say that’s because Bosh shoots the outside shot, but Grant was an effective outside shooter as well. Unfortunately, I don’t have the numbers on “jumpers” for Grant as I do for Bosh, so I can’t give either player the “jump-shooting” advantage Thus, I have to go with the collective total of the shots they took, and even when you account for free-throws, Grant was a better scorer with a true-shooting percentage of 61% vs. Bosh’s 57%.
Scoring Advantage: Horace Grant

Rebounding
Both Bosh’s and Grant’s rebounding numbers are hurt by the fact that they played with wingmen that could rebound the ball extremely well for their positions. Not to mention, their wingmen were very efficient shooters, so it didn’t leave as much to clean up off the offensive glass either. Still, when you look at rebounding percentage, we can get a pretty good glimpse at whether or not a player is a good rebounder. So as far as total rebound percentage goes, Grant has the advantage, having pulled in 16% of every rebound grabbed when he was on the floor. On the contrary, Bosh grabs just 13% of all the rebounds.

However, I don’t often like to put too much weight on offensive rebounds, especially since Bosh takes four more shots per game than Grant, and thus has four less opportunities to grab a rebound each game. So when you focus on defensive rebounding, Bosh has the edge, pulling in 20% of defensive rebounds, whereas Grant pulled in just 18% of the defensive rebounds during the 1991-1992 NBA season.
Rebounding Advantage: Chris Bosh

Passing
Passing is much more of a subjective measurement than it is an objective measurement. So I will give my subjective take on this in a second. First, objectively, the stats say that Grant was more involved in assisting his teammates than Bosh has been this season. Grant assisted on 10.0% of the fields while on the court, and Bosh assisted in 8.9%. It’s fairly close, there as well as in volume, as Grant averaged just 0.8 assists more per 36 minutes. As close as it is though, Grant still has the advantage—objectively speaking.

Subjectively, I still give the nod to Grant. Maybe it’s just because he’s less of a scorer, but he was much more of a pass-first guy than Bosh is. Again, this could be because Bosh is just now getting comfortable playing in this role. Then again, Grant averaged more than Bosh’s 1.9 assists per 36 minutes in his first year as a starter with Mike and Scottie. So even subjectively, I give the nod to Horace Grant.
Passing Advantage: Horace Grant

Efficiency
We will keep this short; especially since this is objective stat has subjectivity built into it. That said, Grant was the more “efficient” player, with PER of 20.6 vs. Bosh’s 19.4 this past season.
Efficiency Advantage: Horace Grant

Defense
Again, defense is more of a subjective category. And while I would love to tell you that my memory of Grant as a wonderful defender of the power-forward position, I don’t recall how much of that was him versus how much of that was Michael and Scottie. That said, Bosh has a lot of help too, but I have watched them play recently and am still able to judge Bosh’s defense individually. Thankfully for Bosh, I don’t have a good enough memory to isolate Grant’s defensive ability in a subjective fashion.

Objectively, the numbers still favor Grant. Grant is the better shot blocker, the better theft and he had a “slightly” better defensive rating—which measures how much the other team scores when said player is on the court.
Defensive Advantage: Horace Grant

Overall Effect on Game:
Here we look at “Overall Rating,” which really is a fancy plus-minus calculation. Ideally, plus-minus measures everything a player contributes. So whether it’s setting screens or hustle plays, if it helps the team win on the scoreboard, it is reflected in the stat. Unfortunately, it doesn’t account for the other players on the court. Obviously, if Grant plays a good number of minutes with out Jordan and Pippen on the floor, and Bosh only plays with Wade and LeBron on the floor, then clearly, Bosh would have the better Overall Rating. There is a stat called “adjusted plus-minus,” which accounts for such a phenomenon, but again, that statistic is not available for NBA players from Grant’s generation.

So what do the numbers say? Per 100 possessions, Grant’s Bulls were 30 points better than the opposition whenever Grant was on the basketball court. Conversely, Bosh’s Heat are a mere 12 points better than the opposition when he was on the floor. Again, these numbers can be skewed by the type of players on the court and their coach’s respective player rotations. But I would venture to say that a difference that great, along with the numbers we have already discussed, speak highly of one Mr. Horace Grant.
Plus-Minus Advantage: Horace Grant

Playoffs
Last and least, we go to the NBA playoffs. I say “least,” because clearly we don’t have an entire postseason on record for Bosh. But if you want to know where this ship is headed, it’s certainly not in Bosh’s favor. In fact, the only thing Bosh has done better than Grant this postseason is rebound the ball better. Yes, he’s scoring 6.2 more points per game, but he’s doing it less efficiently than Grant scored his 11. That might suggests that Bosh’s scoring is more important to the Heat than Grant’s was to the Bulls, however, Bosh is taking 5 more shots per playoff game to get those 6 extra points—that’s not efficient at all.
NBA Playoff Advantage: Horace Grant

I think it’s pretty clear, that at the very least, Bosh isn’t any better than Horace Grant was a third-man. Maybe he’s a little more prolific, but in being so, he’s less efficient and turns the ball over more—something I didn’t mention when going over the earlier stats. However, I will admit that Grant did have the advantage of always being a third-man and never having to adjust from being the best guy on a team all his life in the very season I’m using for statistical purposes.

Thus, this question begs to be asked again after next season, when “comfort” can no longer be used as an excuse. Until then though, this analysis begs to ask the question, why did Grant make $1.75 million that season, while Bosh is making $14.5 million this season?

Yes, there’s inflation and league growth to account for, but it doesn’t account for the nearly $13 million difference between those salaries. I’m not saying Chris Bosh is overpaid, but maybe both his and Grant’s NBA values were much closer the average of their respective salaries.

The post "Is Chris Bosh Better than Horace Grant?" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/is-chris-bosh-better-than-horace-grant-4433/feed/ 1 The Kyle Korver Complication http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-kyle-korver-complication-4429 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-kyle-korver-complication-4429#comments Sun, 15 May 2011 23:55:50 +0000 Stat Watcher http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4429 I’m writing this post just hours before the start of the Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat NBA Playoff Series. It’s a rather risky time to write something like this, as I could have the facts thrown in my face in a matter of moments. However, the fact is, that no matter what happens in Game [...]

The post "The Kyle Korver Complication" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> I’m writing this post just hours before the start of the Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat NBA Playoff Series. It’s a rather risky time to write something like this, as I could have the facts thrown in my face in a matter of moments. However, the fact is, that no matter what happens in Game [...]

Kyle Korver and Chicago Bulls
I’m writing this post just hours before the start of the Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat NBA Playoff Series. It’s a rather risky time to write something like this, as I could have the facts thrown in my face in a matter of moments. However, the fact is, that no matter what happens in Game 1 of these Eastern Conference Finals, Kyle Korver—yes, that Kyle Korver—will play a major role in determining which team goes on to the 2011 NBA Finals.

In fact, Kyle Korver is a member of the Chicago Bulls best five-man unit during these 2011 NBA Playoffs. This unit involves Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah and accounts for the second-most minutes of any five-man unit on the Bulls. While the first unit plays more than twice as long in terms of minutes, the adjusted plus-minus ratio of that squad is negative and has a much lower Overall and Offensive rating.

So why is Korver so vital to the Bulls?

Well, on a team that finished just 11th among NBA offenses in terms of efficiency, the Bulls aren’t exactly experts on how to put the basketball in the hoop. They struggle doing so—which is part of the reason Derrick Rose looks so damn awesome on this team, because he gets to take all of the shots while the rest of his offensive inefficient teammates take a back seat.

However, when Korver comes into the game, not only is he a spot-up shooter, he’s instant offense. He doesn’t play starters’ minutes, but when he’s on the floor, he’s the Bulls fourth leading scorer per minute, and that’s nothing to laugh at. They run curls for Korver, they let Korver throw it into the post, and of course, he’ll shoot the quick three on the delayed break. To put it simply, Korver is one of the Bulls best options to get high-percentage shots, and the Bulls do indeed take advantage of that.

But in this series, it’s going to be hard to get Korver on the floor. He doesn’t exactly play great defense, and with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade playing 40-42 minutes per game at the only two positions Korver can defend, how on Earth will they justify putting him on the basketball court?

They can’t, and they probably won’t.

Last round, against the Atlanta Hawks, the Chicago Bulls played Kyle Korver significantly fewer minutes than his average, and Korver only played 5 minutes in Game 5. Like the Heat, the Hawks have highly-productive players at the 2 and 3 positions, and that forced Korver to the bench more often than he’s used to. Against the Heat, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James pose an even bigger threat than Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson do, making it extremely hard to get Korver his regular minutes this series.

So where’s the missing offense from the bench going to come from?

Keith Bogans?

Luol Deng?

Ronnie Brewer?

I wish I could tell you where it’s going to come from if the Bulls do indeed decide to play Korver less, but the numbers suggest that the only viable option is Derrick Rose. He’s already doing so much, as he’s near the top of the NBA in usage rate. To ask him to shoot the ball more, especially when he’s not all that efficient, is asking too much of him. But if he doesn’t, who will? In looking at the data, nobody stands out as an answer to the question. And when the data fails to show an answer, chances are there isn’t one.

The post "The Kyle Korver Complication" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/the-kyle-korver-complication-4429/feed/ 0 The Scariest Players in Sports http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/the-scariest-players-in-sports-4425 http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/the-scariest-players-in-sports-4425#comments Sun, 15 May 2011 22:13:58 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4425 There are countless physically-imposing, scary players in sports. I know that I don’t want to get into any kind of altercation with the likes of Ray Lewis, Kendrick Perkins, AJ Hawk or Manny Pacquiao. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I think of the scariest players in sports, I’m talking about the [...]

The post "The Scariest Players in Sports" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> There are countless physically-imposing, scary players in sports. I know that I don’t want to get into any kind of altercation with the likes of Ray Lewis, Kendrick Perkins, AJ Hawk or Manny Pacquiao. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I think of the scariest players in sports, I’m talking about the [...]

Mariano Rivera, Scary Sports Athletes
There are countless physically-imposing, scary players in sports. I know that I don’t want to get into any kind of altercation with the likes of Ray Lewis, Kendrick Perkins, AJ Hawk or Manny Pacquiao.

But that’s not what I’m talking about here.

When I think of the scariest players in sports, I’m talking about the players that scare you as a fan of the opposing team. What are those players, moments in games, circumstances or plays that concern every fan when they see a game-changing superstar in a particular situation?

Here is a list of the Top 5 Scariest Players in sports from the last decade.

Ray Allen, NBA – Is there anything more joy-sucking than when you see Ray Allen spring across the baseline, turn and catch the ball with nobody even near of him? As a New York Knicks fan, my heart stopped every single time Ray Allen caught the ball after alluding his defender via several screens. He just shoots way too well from three-point land to be left wide-0open, and yet he gets open all the time. It makes watching your favorite NBA team play him about as uneasy a viewing experience a basketball fan can have. Especially when it happens in the fourth quarter or on a last-minute shot. No fan wants to see Ray Allen wide open from behind the arc with the basketball in his hands—it’s just one of those situations that doesn’t end well for the opposition.

Randy Moss, NFL – He’s well past his prime now, but there was time when if the football was thrown in the air, deep down the sideline, to the side of the field Randy Moss was lined up on, it was as good as (in the words of Randy Moss) “straight cash, homie.” No fan of the opposition ever wanted to see Randy Moss in single coverage, and to the NFL’s credit, very rarely did that happen. But sooner or later, throughout some point in a game against the Minnesota Vikings or New England Patriots, the coach of your favorite football team would opt to blitz or run three-deep zone, resulting Moss going one-on-one with what was usually a terrified cornerback. And when Daunte Culpepper or Tom Brady would throw a bomb down the field to the side of the field Moss was on, your mind was probably going crazy, just hoping for a “simple” 50-yard catch, all the while knowing that it would probably result in a touchdown.

Shaquille O’Neal, NBA – You may have to go back a ways for this one, but there was a time when if Shaquille O’Neal caught the ball on the block, it was as good as two points. Even during his days in Miami, Shaq shot careers highs in terms of field goal percentage. Sure, some of what Shaq brought in scariness from the block was negated by the joy you had in seeing him go to the free-throw line. But from 2000-2002, Shaq was one of the most efficient basketball players the NBA has ever seen, and I’m not exaggerating that one bit.

Peyton Manning, NFL – There are a few quarterbacks out there with more “actual” fourth quarter comebacks, i.e., John Elway, Dan Marino, Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas. But over the last decade, there’s no doubt who the king of the fourth quarterback is. I’m not sure what the number is right now, but according to a 2009 Pro Football Reference article, Peyton Manning has had more fourth-quarter comebacks than anybody else in the NFL right now. And when you’re the fan of the opposing team that’s up by less than one score and Peyton Manning walks on to the field, you cannot help but think of how he is going to manage to comeback and beat your team. Simply put, Manning is a precise, deep-throwing, defense-dissecting pocket passer. And when the game is on the line, he calls only the plays that he knows will work to his offense’s advantage. While the Indianapolis Colts have certainly had their fair share of fourth quarter losses, Manning has dolled out more than his fair share of heartache, making him the most feared quarterback in the NFL.

Mariano Rivera, MLB – When looking at baseball players, it was hard to determine what exactly gives a player’s opposing fans the most to worry about. Hitters certainly can end games with one swing of a bat—but then again, that rarely happens. And starting pitchers can routinely hold a team’s entire offense to 1 or 2 runs for 8 or 9 innings. But a closer, as lackluster and undemanding as their job actually is, is put in the best position to strike fear in a fan’s mind. Because when Mariano Rivera comes jogging out of the bullpen, in pursuit of the pitcher’s mound and with a lead at his disposal, it’s hard for any fan to imagine themselves coming away with a win. Essentially, for over a decade, whenever Rivera came out to the mound, the game was over. From his placement to his trailing cutter, Rivera just couldn’t be hit. He got out after out and saved game after game. Sure, hitters and starters have been just as dominant as Rivera has. But for the better part of the last two decades, the sight of Rivera essentially meant the game was over, and for a fan of a team that’s losing, there is nothing scarier than that.

Honorable Mention: Tiger Woods
I don’t actually consider golf much of a sport; otherwise, Woods would be among my top 5. For goodness sake, he doesn’t just scare fans, he scares the people he’s playing against. That’s a level of fear unprecedented in most sports, nevermind individual competition.

The post "The Scariest Players in Sports" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/the-scariest-players-in-sports-4425/feed/ 0 Zo Knows: It’s the End of an Era in Boston http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/zo-knows-it%e2%80%99s-the-end-of-an-era-in-boston-4420 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/zo-knows-it%e2%80%99s-the-end-of-an-era-in-boston-4420#comments Tue, 10 May 2011 04:00:10 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4420 Last night, when the Celtics loss to the Heat 98-90 in Game 4, it was the end of an era. I know the series isn’t over. I know the fighting Boston Celtics are still alive. I know they wouldn’t be the first team in the history of the NBA Playoffs to come back from a [...]

The post "Zo Knows: It’s the End of an Era in Boston" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Last night, when the Celtics loss to the Heat 98-90 in Game 4, it was the end of an era. I know the series isn’t over. I know the fighting Boston Celtics are still alive. I know they wouldn’t be the first team in the history of the NBA Playoffs to come back from a [...]

Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
Last night, when the Celtics loss to the Heat 98-90 in Game 4, it was the end of an era.

I know the series isn’t over. I know the fighting Boston Celtics are still alive. I know they wouldn’t be the first team in the history of the NBA Playoffs to come back from a 3-1 series deficit.

But I also know that for all intents and purposes, this basketball series is over.

I hope—I just hope—that the Boston Celtics make the rest of their series with the Miami Heat worth watching, because I won’t put it past this aging team to quit in Game 5 in Miami. Sure, you would automatically think they’re interested in playing this thing out to the finish. But if I told you that the Los Angeles Lakers were going to lose by more than 30 points against the Dallas Mavericks, you would have asked me how much money I had on me and conjured up a bet.

The reality is that reality has already set in. In fact, it set in a long time ago. Long before Dwyane Wade made Ray Allen spin around in circles. Long before LeBron James batted Kevin Garnett’s dunk attempt away. Long before Wade dropped damn near 40 points on the Celtics head in Game 2.

Reality really set in when these three guys got together back in July. Reality set in when LeBron James made Paul Pierce about as offensively efficient as Paul Revere in two out of the last three postseasons. Reality set in when Dwyane Wade lit up the Celtics for 40+ in last years postseason. Reality set in when Chris Bosh was worth more on the open market than Kevin Garnett. The fact is, Boston’s big three knew long before their loss in Game 4 that they weren’t capable of beating a young threesome like the one the Miami Heat have assembled. They knew this was coming a long time ago. And even though there were bumps in the road, losing streaks, and even beat downs from the Celtics themselves, one thing was always in LeBron’s, Wade’s and Bosh’s favor, and that one thing was Father Time.

And time is up for Boston.

This thing went one year longer than it was designed to go anyway. When these three guys got together in the summer of 2007, it wasn’t supposed to last forever. Hell, some wondered if it would last a season given Pierce’s string of injuries and Kevin Garnett’s mileage. But here we were in early 2011, and the Celtics were atop the NBA standings, looking like the best team in the NBA. And here they are in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, a legitimate NBA Finals contender.

So kudos to them. This three-man group went four whole seasons displaying the basketball talent worthy of a championship. Unfortunately, Miami did the same thing they did four years ago. Miami got three stars—younger ones at that—and are beating the Celtics at their own game.

For Celtics fans who think a comeback is in order, I’m sorry to have to be the one to write the obituary. Sure, this is an easy stance I’m taking. I’m a nobody blogger playing the odds of a team down 3-1 with its best stars hobbled by injuries and age.

But easy stance or not, the truth is the truth. And when Paul Pierce’s desperation shot at the end of regulation clanked off the glass, courtesy of LeBron James’ defense, the truth set in that the “the” Truth, the Big Ticket and Jesus Shuttlesworth have had their final take as the dominant trio they once were.

The post "Zo Knows: It’s the End of an Era in Boston" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/zo-knows-it%e2%80%99s-the-end-of-an-era-in-boston-4420/feed/ 0 Call Out: Carlos Boozer, Stand Up! http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/call-out-carlos-boozer-stand-up-4413 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/call-out-carlos-boozer-stand-up-4413#comments Wed, 04 May 2011 12:17:22 +0000 Stat Watcher http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4413 Prior to the 2010-2011 NBA Basketball season, Carlos Boozer went on a strong campaign to get out the message that he is one of the best power forwards in the game. He was asked many times about where he thought he ranked among today’s best four-men. I even heard him on a New York radio [...]

The post "Call Out: Carlos Boozer, Stand Up!" was originally published at TSW.

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No related posts were found, so here's a consolation prize: Knicks Don’t Have Game, They’ve Got Problems. ]]> Prior to the 2010-2011 NBA Basketball season, Carlos Boozer went on a strong campaign to get out the message that he is one of the best power forwards in the game. He was asked many times about where he thought he ranked among today’s best four-men. I even heard him on a New York radio [...]

Carlos Boozer
Prior to the 2010-2011 NBA Basketball season, Carlos Boozer went on a strong campaign to get out the message that he is one of the best power forwards in the game. He was asked many times about where he thought he ranked among today’s best four-men. I even heard him on a New York radio station claiming that he was better than David Lee.

I didn’t argue with him when he said it, but I might be inclined to argue with him after the paltry, injury-plagued season he put before us during the last six months. Then again, David Lee is no longer playing, so let’s compare Boozer to the other premiere power forward still in the playoffs, Chris Bosh.

First, let’s look at the regular season.

While in Boozer’s defense, he did have to deal with some injuries, I have to take him for what he is. Boozer is fast-approaching 30, has always been injury-riddled, and quite frankly, he’s known for that. So while I want to give you that tid-bit of information as you look at the statistics, I must say, I could care less how Boozer’s injury may have affected his play.

There’s almost little questioning that Boozer was the better rebounder this season. Boozer pulled in 23% of all defensive rebounds this season, while Bosh pulled in just 20%, and overall, Boozer pulled in 17% of all rebounds, while Bosh pulled in just 13. In addition, Boozer is the more consistent rebounder. In 77 starts, Bosh had 28 double-doubles, and Boozer had 30 double-doubles in just 59 starters.

Unfortunately for Boozer, rebounding is about his only edge against Chris Bosh.

Per game, Boozer was giving the Chicago Bulls 17.5 points per game during the regular season. Bosh, who is the third wheel for the Miami Heat, scored nearly 19 points per game. From the floor, Boozer was more efficient at producing points whenever he shot the basketball, however, when you factor in free throws using true-shooting percentage, Boozer was the more efficient shooting power forward.

As for the intangibles, Boozer had a better assist ratio, but Bosh was a better shot blocker, thief and caretaker of the ball this past NBA regular season.

Now on to the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

While we are still miles away from the Bulls and Heat facing off in the Eastern Conference Finals, it’s possible that these two guys, who essentially battled for money this past summer, will square off. And if you look at the playoff stats as they stand now, Bosh will dominate Chris Bosh.

To put it simply, in six games, Carlos Boozer has looked like boo-boo. He is averaging just 10.7 points per game on 39% shooting from the field. He has been to the line just an average of 2 times per game. He has had on only double-double, while averaging less than 10 rebounds per game (albeit, he only played 15 minutes in route of the Indiana Pacers in Game 5 last series). Last but not least, he played five of his games against Tyler Hansbrough, a player making considerably less money than him, and he was outperformed night-in and night out.

As for Bosh—well, let’s just say LeBron James made the right “decision.” In the playoffs, Bosh is averaging 17.7 points per game on 46% shooting. He’s getting to the free throw line at twice the clip of Carlos Boozer. In addition, Bosh has surprisingly showed up on defense, as exhibited by his great play against Indiana and his impending matchup against Joakim Noah.

I could get deeper into the analysis of these two guys. For starters:

  1. Boozer’s PER of 10.1 is worse than that of Thaddeus Young, Carl Landry and Marcus Camby
  2. Bosh has a top 10 PER among all power-forwards this postseason
  3. Bush’s true-shooting percentage has been almost 14-points higher than that of Boozer’s, and with the kind of shot selection Boozer is taking, I hope to keep it that way.

Sorry, Boozer, these numbers just don’t add up for a guy who demanded a premium dollar last off-season. You’re supposed to be the best big man on the floor when you step out of the lockerrom. Get’er done Boozer, or else I will continue to call you out!

The post "Call Out: Carlos Boozer, Stand Up!" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/call-out-carlos-boozer-stand-up-4413/feed/ 0 Heat Romp Celtics; The Hungry Take Game 1 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/heat-romp-celtics-the-hungry-take-game-1-4408 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/heat-romp-celtics-the-hungry-take-game-1-4408#comments Mon, 02 May 2011 01:03:40 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4408 Sunday afternoon failed to produce the same results the Boston Celtics had experienced the previous two Sundays. In their series with the New York Knicks, the Celtics had a nice comeback victory two Sundays ago, and last week, the Celtics closed the Knicks out in convincing fashion. But this Sunday was different. This Sunday was [...]

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Dwyane Wade, 2011 NBA Playoffs
Sunday afternoon failed to produce the same results the Boston Celtics had experienced the previous two Sundays. In their series with the New York Knicks, the Celtics had a nice comeback victory two Sundays ago, and last week, the Celtics closed the Knicks out in convincing fashion.

But this Sunday was different. This Sunday was the start of a new series, one that we have all been waiting for. Sunday was Game 1 of the Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat series, the one we have dreamed about since LeBron James made his “decision” last July. Game 1 certainly provided exciting plays, physical play, intense defense, intense emotions, and otherwise, great NBA playoff emotion. Unfortunately, it did not produce a great game, and Miami won 99-90.

For much of the game, the Miami Heat dominated the Celtics. After averaging just 13 points against the Celtics in their four previous meetings during the regular season, Dwyane Wade put up 38 points on just 21 shots against a Celtics defense that often holds high-scoring wing players to incredibly inefficient performances. Team-wise, the Heat led the Celtics by as much as 19 points in the third quarter. The Celtics made some runs here and there, and even got the lead down to 8 late in the fourth quarter after Paul Pierce had been tossed out of the game with his second technical foul. But in actuality, the Heat were never in danger of losing this game.

So why did the Heat prevail?

In what is sure to be one of the most scrutinized Round 2, Game 1’s in the history of the NBA Playoffs, here are three reasons why Miami won this game, and will likely go on to win this series.

#1. Dwyane Wade was unstoppable.
As I mentioned in our “Heat-Celtics” keys to victory post, Wade has to show up in order for the Heat to win this series. Now, 38 points in the series opener is certainly one way to do that. But in addition to that, Wade played “better” defense against Ray Allen, who despite scoring 25 points on just 13 shots, was at least pushed off the three-point line by Wade more often than he had been in their previous meetings. It’s unlikely that Wade’s jump shot will be as accurate as it was this game for the remainder of this series. However, if he keeps playing defense like he did, he can possibly minimize the damage that Ray inflicts upon the Heat.

#2. Where the hell was Kevin Garnett?
Listen, everyone is destined for a bad night, but Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs is not a time to play so below your averages that I don’t even recognize you. The Celtics started the game giving the ball to Kevin Garnett in the post. Garnett has the best matchup, scoring-wise, as Bosh shouldn’t be able to guard him down on the block—or at least hasn’t done so in the past. Yet, with Bosh on him for most of the game, Garnett was held to just 3 for 9 shooting, 6 points and 8 rebounds. Garnett did not get to the free throw line once, and for 37 minutes of play, Garnett looked like somebody else. Granted, he did do a pretty stellar job on defense, subsequently holding Chris Bosh to just 7 points on 3 for 10 shooting. But the Celtics can’t win this series if Garnett isn’t better than Bosh. We already know that the Heat have the best two players on the court. But if Miami winds up 3 of the best 5 performances in this series, it’s lights out for Boston.

#3. Paul Pierce can’t get abused…or thrown out of the game!
Maybe I wasn’t clear with my keys to victory. When I said that Paul Pierce couldn’t afford to get abused by LeBron James in this series, I didn’t mean he could just not play and get tossed out of the game. And while I wholeheartedly disagree with the referee’s decision to give Pierce a second technical foul (one the NBA says was given for taunting), Pierce never should have gotten that first technical—so I don’t exactly feel all that sorry for him. Before he got thrown off the court though, Pierce wasn’t spectacular. He had hit a couple of jumpers just before leaving, but he was a mere 6 of 14 for 19 points, had 4 turnovers and let LeBron play an extremely efficient game. Now that I’m sure my statements no longer need further explanation, the Boston Celtics are far more likely to win this series if Paul Pierce is on the basketball court.

The post "Heat Romp Celtics; The Hungry Take Game 1" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/heat-romp-celtics-the-hungry-take-game-1-4408/feed/ 0 Hey, Monty, Play Chris Paul! http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/hey-monty-play-chris-paul-4403 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/hey-monty-play-chris-paul-4403#comments Thu, 28 Apr 2011 04:13:58 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4403 Play Chris Paul! I don’t like second guessing coaches—okay, I take that back. I love second-guessing coaches. And the fact that Monty Williams, head coach of the New Orleans Hornets, found it in his heart to site Chris Paul as much as he did last night is atrocious. In Williams defense, it is not his [...]

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Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets, NBA Playoffs
Play Chris Paul!

I don’t like second guessing coaches—okay, I take that back. I love second-guessing coaches. And the fact that Monty Williams, head coach of the New Orleans Hornets, found it in his heart to site Chris Paul as much as he did last night is atrocious.

In Williams defense, it is not his fault that the Hornets were outrebounded by the Los Angeles Lakers by 17 boards in a 106-90 loss in Game of the series. Still, it was Willaims decision to take Paul out of the game at the beginning of the second quarter, and boy did he pay for it.

When Paul left the game at the end of the first quarter, the Hornets were up by 9 points. When Paul came back into the game mid-way through the second quarter, the Hornets were down by 1 point. And that my friends, is where the game was lost.

Now it’s easy to point out that Paul still had a plus/minus of -7 for the game, but most of that was accrued during the fourth quarter, long after the Hornets had relinquished the lead. And anybody who watched that game could tell you that the Hornets were in bad need of Paul’s presence during that second quarter, as the offense went to crap for a good six minutes, and it never recovered after that.

The Hornets 19 points in the second quarter was a direct reflection of the Paul’s absence. Not only did not having Paul on the floor take away from the Hornets offensive efficiency, but it also diminished their defensive efficiency. When Paul was on the floor early on in the game, it forced Kobe Bryant to pay more attention to the point guard position, and it actually made Kobe guard Trevor Ariza a little more closely. However, without Paul on the floor to make Ariza an offensive threat, Kobe didn’t have to spend too much energy on the defensive end, and that allowed him to find his groove in the second quarter.

I will reiterate, however, that head coach Monty Williams can point to many other problems with his team last night. The team only shot 66% at the free throw line, Jarrett Jack was essentially worthless, and Chris Paul himself had just 5 assists after a 7-assists first quarter. But for me, and many other “basketball minds” out there, you have to think that had Paul played those crucial minutes early in the second quarter, his team might have won, or at least kept this close.

In fact, Paul should have played the entire game. Shoot, he playd 41 minutes, what’s the reach in going the other 7 minutes? Besides, if Monty Williams uses his timeouts correctly, there’s nary a problem making a 7-minute increase in one players on-court time.

So, Williams, you know what to do now! Play Paul every 48 minutes of the game. He’s your best player and offense looks ghastly without him on the floor! I suppose you could go with the alternative, but that certainly will cost you a spot in the second round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

The post "Hey, Monty, Play Chris Paul!" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/hey-monty-play-chris-paul-4403/feed/ 0 Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Series Keys http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/boston-celtics-vs-miami-heat-series-keys-4396 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/boston-celtics-vs-miami-heat-series-keys-4396#comments Tue, 26 Apr 2011 03:29:05 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4396 In a couple of the days, the 2011 NBA playoffs are really going to begin. Sure, this has been one of the best first rounds in the history of the game, but it’s still the first round. And as I much as I care for the Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets of the world, it’s [...]

The post "Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Series Keys" was originally published at TSW.

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The NBA's Ray Allen and Dwyane Wade.
In a couple of the days, the 2011 NBA playoffs are really going to begin. Sure, this has been one of the best first rounds in the history of the game, but it’s still the first round. And as I much as I care for the Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets of the world, it’s time to see the matches we all have wanted to see all season long.

And thanks to the lowly New York Knicks and the hapless Philadelphia 76ers, this season’s most anticipated postseason matchup appears to be headed our way. The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics will square off for seven of what I’m not afraid to call the best basketball games of the 2011 NBA season. It’s going to be tough, arduous, slow, defensive, start-studded basketball, and I am going to love every moment of it.

I could sit here and predict who was going to win the series and how many games they are going to win it in, but you can go to my pre-postseason NBA predictions for that. Instead, I am going to take this opportunity to pick out the four things that will determine this series. As one might expect with five potential Hall of Famers on the court, we have a lot of big names weighing in on this discussion.

#1. Dwyane Wade must be efficient.
In the four games that the Heat have played the Boston Celtics, the Heat are 1-3. In those three games against Boston, Wade has been atrocious. Not just bad, but “the Heat would be better off with him on the bench” bad. In those three games, he shot just 26% from the field. Even when you throw in the fourth game in which he was 4 for 12 from the field, he shot just 28% in all of his games with the Celtics. A lot of it has to do with the fact that Wade has to guard Ray Allen. Allen loves to run around picks—hell, he just loves to run. That likely tires Wade out and takes his legs away from him on the offensive end. Unfortunately, the Heat will need him to be above a 28% shooter if Miami is going to win this series.

#2. Jermaine O’Neal must be BIG.
As a Knicks fan, during the first round, I honestly thought I had been taken back to 2002, when Jermaine O’Neal was actually good. In all likelihood, O’Neal was only able to be as effective as he was against a porous Knicks front line, because he surely wasn’t that effective a season ago, when he was playing for Miami. Then again, Doc Rivers claims O’Neal was a beast on the defensive end, so perhaps that’s where his value is. Well, he sure enough better demonstrate that value, because low-and-behold, Jermaine, not Shaq, is the O’Neal that has to be the force inside for the Celtics. The Heat have two weak spots, center and point guard. Boston wins one of those by default, but if they leave that center spot up for grabs, they are giving the Heat an edge that may win them the series.

#3. LeBron James has to come through in the clutch.
I know that the entire Miami Heat team has failed in the last few seconds of games this season, but to me, that lone stat is rather arbitrary. I don’t even know exactly what the stat is, but you know which one I’m talking about. The one where we see that the Heat suck at making shots in the last 10 seconds of a close game. Well duh! That’s a hard shot to make, especially when everyone knows who is getting the ball. My bigger concern is how they play in the last five minutes of games. Are they going to let LeBron stand way back at the top of the key and iso, or are they going to give Wade the ball on the wing? It will likely be a combination of both, and to be honest, LeBron is going to have the better matchup. He has to come through for the city of Miami, or he really will have let his team and that franchise down. There are no more excuses for LeBron. He has more help than dozens of Hall of Famers and champions before him have had. If he doesn’t come through and deliver in big moments this season, there’s no reason to believe he will do it consistently enough in the future.

#4. Paul Pierce cannot get abused.
Speaking of LeBron James, he has often had his way with Paul Pierce. Even in last year’s debacle in Cleveland, LeBron’s presence on Boston’s defensive end kept Pierce limited on the offensive end. Well, Pierce can’t afford to slip away in this series. There’s too much firepower on both teams for certain players to go missing in action for long periods of time, or as has been the case in previous Pierce-LeBron matchups, for the entire series. Pierce can’t let defending LeBron result in losing his shot. Sure, LeBron is bigger, stronger, faster and younger, but Pierce has to find a way to use his help more effectively and not take punches from LeBron all night. You will never win a fight without throwing any punches, so no matter what LeBron does on one end of the court, Pierce must throw a couple of blows (i.e., hit shots) on the other end.

The post "Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Series Keys" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/boston-celtics-vs-miami-heat-series-keys-4396/feed/ 1 NBA Playoff Confessions Day 7: I Could Do Without “Soft” In My NBA http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-7-i-could-do-without-%e2%80%9csoft%e2%80%9d-in-my-nba-4388 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-7-i-could-do-without-%e2%80%9csoft%e2%80%9d-in-my-nba-4388#comments Sat, 23 Apr 2011 11:23:57 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4388 I know that the NBA isn’t exactly the NFL when it comes to being tough, forceful and physical. Still, while the product on the court won’t ever be as physical as the product the NFL puts on the field, does that mean my announcers have to be “soft?”   I confess; I don’t like Mike [...]

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 7: I Could Do Without “Soft” In My NBA" was originally published at TSW.

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Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson

Those two guys around him aren't soft!

I know that the NBA isn’t exactly the NFL when it comes to being tough, forceful and physical. Still, while the product on the court won’t ever be as physical as the product the NFL puts on the field, does that mean my announcers have to be “soft?”

 

I confess; I don’t like Mike Tirico and Mike Breen as announcers. As people, I’m sure they’re fine, but as announcers, they get on my last nerve. It’s probably not the smartest thing in the world for me to say, especially since I hope my career leads to prominence in the media and entertainment worlds, and I could possibly be working for, with, under or over one of those two lead play-by-play announcers.

But I can’t help what I feel. Whenever I’m watching an NBA game on ESPN and something that’s not apropos happens, one of those two guys, Breen or Tirico, always takes the “politically correct” side that darts away from the tough NBA player for the “soft” approach to sports. For example, Kenyon Martin made a big play that essentially closed out a game on the road late in the 2011 NBA season, and after making the play, Martin started spewing some expletives in the general direction of the entire crowd. Breen immediately jumped all over Martin for using those words in a “family” environment like an NBA game. But in my opinion, he has every right to say whatever he wants in his place of work, so long as its acceptable to the people he works for. And last time I checked, the NBA isn’t handing out fines for saying curse words during the game.

Then there is Mike Tirico. To be fair, I can’t even give you a concrete example of what I’m talking about, but oh boy do they exist. I can’t even begin to guess just how many times Tirico has criticized an NBA getting in a scuffle, getting a technical foul or losing their temper. He just has this “almighty” approach to judging basketball players on the court, to the point where he seemingly forgets that this is an emotional sport. Which is quite convenient for him to do, especially since he has been known to let his emotions get in the way of Mike Tirico, the “almighty.”

I hate to say it, but those guys are kind of soft. It’s one thing to stand up for what’s right, but it’s another thing to criticize something because it isn’t ideal. Sure, kids might be better off not hearing Martin spew out curse words after a big play, but then again, it might not have an affect on them at all if the kind of places they find themselves in have 25-year old men at the height of their emotions.

Thankfully, the players on the court aren’t as soft as the announcers—most of the time. Then again, we have a few players in the NBA, who are often called soft, and it is deservedly so.

Chris Bosh is one of those guys who gets labeled soft, and this season has kind of proven that label to be quite accurate. Much like Tirico and Breen, Bosh has “recently” found the spotlight. And upon arriving in the spotlight, his game has fettered away. Specifically, his defensive rebounding percentage has dropped from 25% last season to 20% this season. We could say that some of that is because he’s playing with better rebounding guards in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, however, the quality of big men around him, which would have much profounder impact on his rebounding numbers, has dropped precipitously in the rebounding department. Now does a lack of rebounding make a player soft? In my book, “Yes.” And for as great a player as Bosh is, he kind of deserves the soft label.

But then there is a guy like Amare Stoudemire. A guy who makes all of the wonderful dunks, the occasional “huge” block, and for the most part, looks the part of tough guy in comparison to other NBA forwards. As a result, Stoudemire is rarely a guy who gets labeled soft. However, when it comes to playing defense, Stoudemire isn’t very good at it. In fact, he sucks at it. And that’s hard for me to say as a Knicks fan, but the proof was in the pudding last night, when Stoudemire looked like a civ, back spasms or not, on the defensive side of the court. This is why it’s quite hilarious that Stoudemire is fresh off calling Pau Gasol soft. It’s also convenient that he did it in a season when there’s no chance of him seeing Gasol in the playoffs. I didn’t see him call him soft last season when the Los Angeles Lakers beat his Phoenix Suns brains in. Then again, he did call Lamar Odom lucky, only few minutes after Odom had grabbed 19 points and 19 rebounds while Amare was on the court. Amare Stoudemire…soft!

Last but not least, how about another player we just saw last night in Day 7 of the NBA Playoffs, Josh Smith of the Atlanta Hawks. He’s not the guy most people would go out of their way to call soft-especially since he’s considered such a versatile defensive player and decent rebounder at 8.9 rebounds per game. However, it’s on the offensive end that Smith’s softness prevails. For a guy with his size and athleticism, he spends way too much time shooting jumpers and three-pointers. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has been labeled soft throughout his career because of his propensity to take outside shots, despite his value as a defender in his younger days, so we shouldn’t give Smith a pass either. Almost two-thirds of Smith’s game, 63%, is via the jumper. Compare that 63% to Stoudemire, Bosh, Gasol and another “soft” player like Dirk Nowitzki, and Smith fits right in with those guys as big men who shoot the ball from the outside way too much. Josh Smith…soft.

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 7: I Could Do Without “Soft” In My NBA" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-7-i-could-do-without-%e2%80%9csoft%e2%80%9d-in-my-nba-4388/feed/ 0 NBA Playoff Confessions Day 6: I Preferred Playing on the Road http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-6-i-preferred-playing-on-the-road-4383 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-6-i-preferred-playing-on-the-road-4383#comments Thu, 21 Apr 2011 15:55:14 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4383 When I was in college and high school, all of my better games were reserved for the road. Granted, I didn’t play in front of the enormous crowds that some major college programs and Professional NFL and NBA teams play in front of, but I definitely was in places that anybody would consider hostile environments. [...]

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 6: I Preferred Playing on the Road" was originally published at TSW.

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Indiana Pacers, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough
When I was in college and high school, all of my better games were reserved for the road. Granted, I didn’t play in front of the enormous crowds that some major college programs and Professional NFL and NBA teams play in front of, but I definitely was in places that anybody would consider hostile environments.

So why was I better on the road than I was away from home? Factually, there is nothing that could tell you why; there’s only the stats that will tell you that it indeed happened. In my mind, however, I know exactly why I played better on the road. It’s because I wanted to prove everybody wrong. And quite frankly, whenever I played in front of my home crowd, it never dawned on me that anybody on my side would doubt me. It was those haters on the road that I knew had disdain for me, and so I had disdain for them. And while no one can statistically measure motivation, there’s no doubt that mine was higher whenever I walked out of the visitor’s locker room.

In the NBA, however, that just isn’t the case. Players and teams play better at home, and you don’t have to look past your average NBA Standings page to find that out. The best team in the NBA during the 2011 season was the Chicago Bulls. They won 75% of all their regular season games. However, they won 87% of their games at home and only 63% of their games on the road. Case and point: the best team in the NBA played more like the fourth best team in the Eastern Conference if you only measure their road games.

But why is that? Why does a group of professional NBA players, who are among the top 1% of people in the world that play that sport, have its performance altered so drastically when they play in front of a group of people rooting against them?

Again, objectively speaking, there’s no answer for this. There are no “actual” reasons why a player should be affected by people booing them. All of the basketball statisticians in the world disagree on why players play differently at home than they do on the road, and rarely do you see these numbers people disagree so fervently. The one thing they can agree on is with information like the one I just gave the Bulls—that for whatever reason; teams do play better at home.

That really makes gambling on the 2011 NBA Playoffs a ridiculous notion. For the first two games of a series, it’s actually quite easy to make predictions. After all, the favored team is at home, so we think the style of the game will be in the better team’s favor, and we can make our bets with that assumption, even accounting for the upset or a close game if we know the teams are fairly evenly matched. However, when the series shifts to the underdog’s home floor, what in the hell are you supposed to do then?

In looking at the lines for Thursdays NBA playoff games, you will see that the #3 seed, the Dallas Mavericks, is slated to lose to the #6 seeded Portland Trailblazers by 6 points. This goes against the very fact that Dallas is considered the favorite, and it’s all because Portland is playing at home. But it’s not just that Portland is favored to win the game despite being the underdog in the series, but it’s also ludicrous that they were favored to win by six points. If you look at the fact that Dallas was favored by 3.5 points when they were at home, that means Vegas (and the people who make the bets) are telling you that Portland will play 9.5 points better at home than they will on the road.

While logically that makes sense given the history of the NBA, a bettor can’t do anything with that information. How is someone who just won money off of betting Dallas to beat Portland by at least 4 points supposed to bet on the exact opposite happening because of a change in scenery?

I couldn’t do it, and I imagine there is a lot less action on Game 3’s in the NBA Playoffs. There’s just too much one doesn’t know. Is the underdog of the series actually going to play better at home? Is the favored team actually going to play worse? Sure, their regular season performances suggest that those are indeed the scenarios that will play out when the series goes from one arena to the next, but the postseason is a different monster, and teams like Indiana all of a sudden start playing defense.

So, I confess, I don’t get home court advantage. I know that statistically speaking, I have to recognize that it exists, but like all of the gamblers out there, I have no idea when and where it’s going to rear its ugly head. Frankly, I think all gamblers would be better off to avoid placing bets money on Game 3’s, such as the one coming up between Boston and New York in which the Knicks are actually favored to win at home. Seriously? Even as a Knicks fan, I can’t put money on that one!

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 6: I Preferred Playing on the Road" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-6-i-preferred-playing-on-the-road-4383/feed/ 0 NBA Playoff Confessions Day 5: I Still Like to Watch Underdog http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/nba-playoff-confessions-day-5-i-still-like-to-watch-underdog-4378 http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/nba-playoff-confessions-day-5-i-still-like-to-watch-underdog-4378#comments Wed, 20 Apr 2011 05:52:52 +0000 The Sports Watchers http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4378 Anybody born within five years of 1984 has to have watched an episode of “Underdog” or two growing up—even though the show was in complete re-runs by the 1980’s. Sure, it wasn’t the most popular cartoon among the Saturday morning favorites, but much like the name suggests, it was an extremely underrated cult classic among [...]

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 5: I Still Like to Watch Underdog" was originally published at TSW.

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Indiana Pacers 2011 NBA Playoffs
Anybody born within five years of 1984 has to have watched an episode of “Underdog” or two growing up—even though the show was in complete re-runs by the 1980’s. Sure, it wasn’t the most popular cartoon among the Saturday morning favorites, but much like the name suggests, it was an extremely underrated cult classic among young children and pre-teens.

I know that I personally liked. In fact, I confess; I still like Underdog. I watch clips of it online to this day, mainly to refresh my memory on scenes I watch regularly. Part of my continued infatuation for the cartoon is its simplistic writing and ironic plots. But the main reason I like watching Underdog is because it is literally an underdog story. The cartoon is all about a superhero that’s not so super. Despite his supernatural powers, Underdog isn’t as strong, fast or smart as his life-saving contemporaries. He is always prone for a mistake and never gets things right the first time, yet more often than not, he was capable of coming through with a win.

My love for the cartoon has carried over into my love for sports. I can’t help but root for the underdog. The only time I don’t root for the underdog is when one of my favorite teams is the favorite. Outside of that, and maybe the Olympics, I mine as well say that I’m a fan of the underdog. Who wants to see the favorite win? They always win—that’s why they’re the favorite!

The underdog in sports, much like the cartoon, is usually lacking something. In the case of my New York Knicks and this Boston Celtics series, the Knicks lack a consistent outside shooter and scorer that can stretch the Celtics defense. In the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Hornets series, New Orleans lacks a strong interior presence. And in the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers series, the 76ers lack a true star player (and no, Andre Iguodala does not count).

But you know what? It’s bigger than that.

My love for the underdog isn’t just about the less-blessed coming up big; it’s about the instant community built around the underdog. You see it in the NCAA Basketball Tournament all the time. The favored seed usually has more fans in the house. But let the game get close with four minutes left in the match, and all of a sudden everybody in the arena, and bars across the nation, is cheering  for Cinderella.

The same thing happens in the NBA Playoffs. If you didn’t find yourself rooting for Tyler Hansbrough and the Indiana Pacers during Game 1 of their series with the Chicago Bulls, then you must be a Bulls fan. If a part of you didn’t get goose bumps when the Memphis Grizzlies beat San Antonio in Game 1, you must have had money on the Spurs. And if you weren’t on the edge of your seat when Chris Paul was leading the underdog New Orleans Hornets over the Los Angeles Lakers—well, you just don’t know sports or basketball.

And the 2011 NBA Playoffs appear to be the year of the underdog. In an NBA season that began with the focus all about a new trio of players and another team going for a trio of championships, the postseason is full of talent-challenged teams fulfilling the role of the underdog. Between Pacers-Bulls, Grizz-Spurs, Hornets-Lakers and Celtics-Knicks, if you don’t like basketball this season, you either really hate the underdog, or just don’t like basketball.

I don’t fall into either category, and I don’t mind admitting that I’m about to ride out to this Underdog theme song when I leave work.

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 5: I Still Like to Watch Underdog" was originally published at TSW.

]]> http://thesportswatchers.com/black-page/zo-knows-all-sports/nba-playoff-confessions-day-5-i-still-like-to-watch-underdog-4378/feed/ 0 NBA Playoff Confessions Day 4: I Didn’t Give it 100% http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-4-i-didn%e2%80%99t-give-it-100-4373 http://thesportswatchers.com/nba/nba-playoff-confessions-day-4-i-didn%e2%80%99t-give-it-100-4373#comments Wed, 20 Apr 2011 04:04:36 +0000 Uzo Ometu http://thesportswatchers.com/?p=4373 Who doesn’t want to give 100% effort all of the time? Of course, everybody wants to, it’s just not possible to give 100% effort 100% of the time. In fact, I believe that’s exactly why they created the 80/20 rule. I literally believe that you’re supposed to give 100% of your effort only 20% of [...]

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 4: I Didn’t Give it 100%" was originally published at TSW.

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Joakim Noah, NBA Playoffs
Who doesn’t want to give 100% effort all of the time?

Of course, everybody wants to, it’s just not possible to give 100% effort 100% of the time. In fact, I believe that’s exactly why they created the 80/20 rule. I literally believe that you’re supposed to give 100% of your effort only 20% of the time. If you did anymore, you’d probably burn out or become one of those overachievers that can’t ever stop overachieving. And who wants to do that?

Just take our nation’s presidents. They take vacations all the damn time, but they don’t take a whole lot of days off during the campaign trail.

How about restaurants? Sure, they try to give you the best of service 24 hours a day, but the truth is that if you show up during non-peak hours and they’re understaffed, good luck having your usual dining experience.

So I confess; I don’t give 100% all of the time. Maybe, it’s my background as an athlete. Yes, I gave all of my effort during every snap of football that I played in high school and college. But during the other four days of practice during the week, I didn’t go full board all the time, and I certainly didn’t put forth the effort on those days that I did on Friday nights and Saturday afternoons. If I did, I wouldn’t have had a body to go into the game with after four days of all-out practicing.

Hell, even with my daily confessions and my effort to watch as much NBA Playoff basketball as possible, I have slacked off. After the New York Knicks lost on Tuesday night, I didn’t stick around at the bar and watch the Atlanta Falcons play. Nah, I got on the damn subway, angrily, and went home, waited until I settled in, and then watched the rest of Dallas vs. Portland.

Unfortunately, people expect more from their athletes. They expect 100% effort all of the time. Sports fans will light the radio and internet airwaves on fire if they catch a player slacking off in 3rd quarter of the 21st game of the NBA Regular season. And they expect this constant effort from their athletes, even when most of them don’t care enough about their jobs to put forth half the effort athletes put forth in a single game.

But that’s what the NBA Playoffs are for. The NBA Playoffs are when you get your 100% effort. There’s no more “let’s wait until the fourth quarter and exert our dominance” during the postseason. NBA basketball teams give it their all in these situations, which by the way, makes it increasingly difficult to bet on these damn games. Who the hell thought the Indiana Pacers would decided to play defense in their 83rd and 84th game, but not the other 82? Who foresaw the Memphis Grizzlies beating the #1 seed in the Western Conference? I mean, these are things that no one would have predicted the day before the playoffs started, but once the playoffs started and the games began to mean something, the regular season stats did not mean much of anything.

And I’m perfectly okay with that.

Call me an athletic homer if you want to, but I don’t need my basketball players going 100% all night every night. That crap is hard. Harder than you think. Why else do 20-something year olds not play as well on the second half of a back-to-back? It’s because that first game, 100% effort or not, takes a lot out of players. If NBA games were so easy, players would play all 48 minutes, wouldn’t they?

So let it go. No more complaining from those of you who don’t like the NBA. Granted, not many of you would read this post anyway, because you’re too busy talking about how NBA Players don’t try hard enough. Truth be told though, most people don’t exert as much energy as NBA players do. And while it would be an easy stance to take, I’m not going to sit here and say that the millions of dollars they earn make up for the physical toil they volunteer for.

I’d much rather say they earn their paycheck the same way you do, by putting forth the effort their employers require of them—sometimes more, sometimes less, but never 100% all of the time.

The post "NBA Playoff Confessions Day 4: I Didn’t Give it 100%" was originally published at TSW.

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