Last night, when the Celtics loss to the Heat 98-90 in Game 4, it was the end of an era.

I know the series isn’t over. I know the fighting Boston Celtics are still alive. I know they wouldn’t be the first team in the history of the NBA Playoffs to come back from a 3-1 series deficit.

But I also know that for all intents and purposes, this basketball series is over.

I hope—I just hope—that the Boston Celtics make the rest of their series with the Miami Heat worth watching, because I won’t put it past this aging team to quit in Game 5 in Miami. Sure, you would automatically think they’re interested in playing this thing out to the finish. But if I told you that the Los Angeles Lakers were going to lose by more than 30 points against the Dallas Mavericks, you would have asked me how much money I had on me and conjured up a bet.

The reality is that reality has already set in. In fact, it set in a long time ago. Long before Dwyane Wade made Ray Allen spin around in circles. Long before LeBron James batted Kevin Garnett’s dunk attempt away. Long before Wade dropped damn near 40 points on the Celtics head in Game 2.

Reality really set in when these three guys got together back in July. Reality set in when LeBron James made Paul Pierce about as offensively efficient as Paul Revere in two out of the last three postseasons. Reality set in when Dwyane Wade lit up the Celtics for 40+ in last years postseason. Reality set in when Chris Bosh was worth more on the open market than Kevin Garnett. The fact is, Boston’s big three knew long before their loss in Game 4 that they weren’t capable of beating a young threesome like the one the Miami Heat have assembled. They knew this was coming a long time ago. And even though there were bumps in the road, losing streaks, and even beat downs from the Celtics themselves, one thing was always in LeBron’s, Wade’s and Bosh’s favor, and that one thing was Father Time.

And time is up for Boston.

This thing went one year longer than it was designed to go anyway. When these three guys got together in the summer of 2007, it wasn’t supposed to last forever. Hell, some wondered if it would last a season given Pierce’s string of injuries and Kevin Garnett’s mileage. But here we were in early 2011, and the Celtics were atop the NBA standings, looking like the best team in the NBA. And here they are in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, a legitimate NBA Finals contender.

So kudos to them. This three-man group went four whole seasons displaying the basketball talent worthy of a championship. Unfortunately, Miami did the same thing they did four years ago. Miami got three stars—younger ones at that—and are beating the Celtics at their own game.

For Celtics fans who think a comeback is in order, I’m sorry to have to be the one to write the obituary. Sure, this is an easy stance I’m taking. I’m a nobody blogger playing the odds of a team down 3-1 with its best stars hobbled by injuries and age.

But easy stance or not, the truth is the truth. And when Paul Pierce’s desperation shot at the end of regulation clanked off the glass, courtesy of LeBron James’ defense, the truth set in that the “the” Truth, the Big Ticket and Jesus Shuttlesworth have had their final take as the dominant trio they once were.

The post "Zo Knows: It’s the End of an Era in Boston" was originally published at TSW.

Sunday afternoon failed to produce the same results the Boston Celtics had experienced the previous two Sundays. In their series with the New York Knicks, the Celtics had a nice comeback victory two Sundays ago, and last week, the Celtics closed the Knicks out in convincing fashion.

But this Sunday was different. This Sunday was the start of a new series, one that we have all been waiting for. Sunday was Game 1 of the Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat series, the one we have dreamed about since LeBron James made his “decision” last July. Game 1 certainly provided exciting plays, physical play, intense defense, intense emotions, and otherwise, great NBA playoff emotion. Unfortunately, it did not produce a great game, and Miami won 99-90.

For much of the game, the Miami Heat dominated the Celtics. After averaging just 13 points against the Celtics in their four previous meetings during the regular season, Dwyane Wade put up 38 points on just 21 shots against a Celtics defense that often holds high-scoring wing players to incredibly inefficient performances. Team-wise, the Heat led the Celtics by as much as 19 points in the third quarter. The Celtics made some runs here and there, and even got the lead down to 8 late in the fourth quarter after Paul Pierce had been tossed out of the game with his second technical foul. But in actuality, the Heat were never in danger of losing this game.

So why did the Heat prevail?

In what is sure to be one of the most scrutinized Round 2, Game 1’s in the history of the NBA Playoffs, here are three reasons why Miami won this game, and will likely go on to win this series.

#1. Dwyane Wade was unstoppable.
As I mentioned in our “Heat-Celtics” keys to victory post, Wade has to show up in order for the Heat to win this series. Now, 38 points in the series opener is certainly one way to do that. But in addition to that, Wade played “better” defense against Ray Allen, who despite scoring 25 points on just 13 shots, was at least pushed off the three-point line by Wade more often than he had been in their previous meetings. It’s unlikely that Wade’s jump shot will be as accurate as it was this game for the remainder of this series. However, if he keeps playing defense like he did, he can possibly minimize the damage that Ray inflicts upon the Heat.

#2. Where the hell was Kevin Garnett?
Listen, everyone is destined for a bad night, but Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs is not a time to play so below your averages that I don’t even recognize you. The Celtics started the game giving the ball to Kevin Garnett in the post. Garnett has the best matchup, scoring-wise, as Bosh shouldn’t be able to guard him down on the block—or at least hasn’t done so in the past. Yet, with Bosh on him for most of the game, Garnett was held to just 3 for 9 shooting, 6 points and 8 rebounds. Garnett did not get to the free throw line once, and for 37 minutes of play, Garnett looked like somebody else. Granted, he did do a pretty stellar job on defense, subsequently holding Chris Bosh to just 7 points on 3 for 10 shooting. But the Celtics can’t win this series if Garnett isn’t better than Bosh. We already know that the Heat have the best two players on the court. But if Miami winds up 3 of the best 5 performances in this series, it’s lights out for Boston.

#3. Paul Pierce can’t get abused…or thrown out of the game!
Maybe I wasn’t clear with my keys to victory. When I said that Paul Pierce couldn’t afford to get abused by LeBron James in this series, I didn’t mean he could just not play and get tossed out of the game. And while I wholeheartedly disagree with the referee’s decision to give Pierce a second technical foul (one the NBA says was given for taunting), Pierce never should have gotten that first technical—so I don’t exactly feel all that sorry for him. Before he got thrown off the court though, Pierce wasn’t spectacular. He had hit a couple of jumpers just before leaving, but he was a mere 6 of 14 for 19 points, had 4 turnovers and let LeBron play an extremely efficient game. Now that I’m sure my statements no longer need further explanation, the Boston Celtics are far more likely to win this series if Paul Pierce is on the basketball court.

The post "Heat Romp Celtics; The Hungry Take Game 1" was originally published at TSW.

The Eastern Conference has been full of surprises this year, which makes our 2011 NBA Playoff Predictions all that much harder to make.

So what have been some of the surprises?

For starters, the Chicago Bulls are the best team in the Eastern Conference; nobody saw that being the case after all the events that took place this summer. Then how about the Orland Magic being a middling four-seed? Yes, they won 50 games, but their inclusion as one of the elite teams in the NBA seems to have expired. And then there are the Philadelphia 76ers. This team was left for dead entering the season and even a few weeks into it. Now they have been one of the best teams in the East since the All-Star break and could be well on their way to making some playoff noise.

So what is our prediction for how this year’s NBA Playoffs will play out? Let’s get to it, round by round.

First Round Predictions:

Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
These two teams are about as unevenly matched as possible. The Bulls dominate the Pacers at every position except for one, small forward, where Danny Granger has a decided advantage over Luol Deng. And while I’m sure the Bulls can overcome that with Derrick Rose’s advantage over the Pacers point guards, it will be a much easier series if Deng can step up and counter Granger. But even if he doesn’t, Bulls still win. Our prediction is that Bulls close this out in 5, 4-1.

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Last year, these two teams were the #2 and #3 seeds playing each other a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. This year, they are both middling #4 and #5 seeds that are expected to get thumped in the second round. While many may have the Magic winning this series in easy fashion, the four regular season series games between these two teams suggest otherwise. The Hawks have taken three out of four from the Magic, with a couple of easy wins. And while Dwight Howard is the best player on the court, the Hawks may have the next three or four best players. That said, I’m going to go with the numbers, which show that the Magic have an average point differentia of plus-5.3, while the Hawks have a point differential of minus-0.6. Statistically speaking, this series shouldn’t even be close, so I’ll go against what I’ve seen and let the numbers take hold of my prediction. Orlando wins, 4-1.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
This match isn’t set in stone as April 11, 2011, however, we don’t think the Heat will lose for the rest of the season, and the New York Knicks have a tiebreaker over Philly. But I digress. The Heat are just better than the 76ers at their own game. Both teams like to run and both teams play great perimeter defense. But at the end of the day, the Heat have Dwyane Wade and LeBron James running, while the 76ers have Andre Igoudala. See what I’m saying? Heat win, 4-1.

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
This is a tough one for me since, admittedly, I am a New York Knicks fan. And as I write this, knowing that the Celtics and Knicks play on Wednesday, on the last game of the season, I’m not afraid to say that the Knicks can play with these Celtics. They can’t play with the same Celtics that were in first place going into the All-Star break. But they can play with the Celtics. Especially since over their last 20 games, the Celtics scoring margin is a mere plus-1.55, while over the Knicks last 20 games, their scoring margin is plus-2.45. On top of that, the Celtics lone “big” man is Jermaine O’Neal, and if Shaquille O’Neal isn’t back for the postseason, the Knicks could dominate inside with Amare Stoudemire. Don’t get it twisted though; I’m not going to go pick the underachieving Knicks to win this series. I’m just saying, that if they did play up their abilities, and the Celtics play like that have over the last 20 games, the Knicks could win this series. But they won’t. Celtics win, 4-3.

Second Round Predictions:

Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic
The best thing about this series is that we have a complete clashing of styles. The Bulls like to slow the pace and get to the basket, while the Magic like to run and shoot threes. On top of that, their offensive styles are in complete contrast with their best players. Rose would be better in perimeter game the Magic offer, while Howard is better suited for the motion offense the Bulls like to run. As a result, I have no idea what these games are going to look like, other than the fact that they will look awesome! Because I don’t know what how the demeanor of the NBA Playoffs will affect the style of this game, again I’m going to lean on the numbers that say the Bulls have been much better in their last 20 games than the Magic have. So Bulls win, 4-2.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Everybody wants to say that losing Kendrick Perkins will costs the Celtics this series. I don’t see it that way, especially since the Celtics didn’t even have Perkins win they were winning the majority of those game. Again, I will point to Shaquille O’Neal, who has the third best adjusted plus/minus on the Celtics team. For me, it’s pretty simple. If Shaq plays, the Big three can do their thing on the perimeter and win this series. If he doesn’t, the Big Three will have a hard time stopping the Heat’s Big Three from getting into the paint and doing their thing. It’s been a long time since a team could rely on Shaquille O’Neal, so I’m going with the Heat in this one. Miami wins, 4-3.

Eastern Conference Finals

Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat
As you all know, the Miami Heat have lost to the Chicago Bulls three times. However, they have lost by a combined total of less than 8 points, and all of the games have come down to the last two are three possessions. Now, it is quite possible that the Heat are bad in close game situations. Yes, I am a firm believer in the fact that winning 5-point games is not a matter of skill, but one of luck. However, if I flip a coin 20 times, and I only get heads three times, I’m going to start to question the validity of that coin. And with the Heat’s close game record being less than optimal, I have to believe that their stagnation at the end of games is causing them to lose the close contests, and I haven’t seen any signs of them fixing that problem. However, I don’t like the Bulls late-game strategy either. As good as Rose has been, he is not the MVP, and he is not that good late in games. In fact, he shoots just 39% down the stretch of close games, and he turns the ball over way more than an MVP point guard should in that situation.

What bodes in Miami’s favor is the fact that we have yet to see them nearly at their best. Currently, the Three Kings average about 35 minutes a piece. However, when the Heat reach the 2011 NBA Playoffs, you can be assured that they will average about 40 minutes per game. That’s a very significant increase, especially when you consider the players they are replacing. Forty minutes a game means guys like Juwan Howard, Joel Anthony, James Jones and Mike Bibby can spend more time on the bench. Bringing in LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade for those games will increase the team’s efficiency tremendously. Thus, I like the Miami Heat to win the Eastern Conference Finals over the Chicago Bulls, 4-2.

The post "NBA Playoff Predictions: Eastern Conference" was originally published at TSW.

When the Boston Celtics decided to trade Kendrick Perkins to the Oklahoma City Thunder, along with sending Semih Erden and Luke Harangody away, they made a clear decision to get smaller. In return for those players, the Celtics got Jeff Green and some draft picks. Neither of which will help the Celtics grab rebounds this postseason, but it does position them for the future.

So why the disregard for big men this postseason?

It’s quite evident that the Celtics are doing one of two things here. On the one hand, Boston could be convinced that a healthy Shaquille O’Neal and a healthy Jermaine O’Neal should be all they need to hold down the frontline, so long as Kevin Garnett and Glen Davis stay healthy as well. On the other hand, because we all know that neither of the O’Neals is all that dependable health wise, the Celtics just might not be afraid of any of the teams that still play a traditional four-man and a have an above-average center.

Enter the Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic.

Those are the two teams with considerable size, albeit, the Magic aren’t as big as they used to be, but they still have Dwight Howard, who is going to be a problem for any team that doesn’t have someone that can at least slow him down.

Boston’s trade, however, says that they aren’t worried about Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum. And damn you too, Lamar Odom! With this trade, the Celtics are basically saying that neither the Lakers nor the Magic pose a threat to them. Nevermind actually having to contend with them, a trade like this suggest the Celtics don’t even think either team will make it far enough in the NBA playoffs to face them.

On paper, that’s not a bad bet to make. The Orlando Magic are the Eastern Conference’s fourth best team right now, and given their up-and-down nature all season, that team could lose to the Atlanta Falcons in the first round. Even if they get past them though, the Orlando Magic are so down from what they were two years ago when they went to the NBA Finals, that the Celtics would be able to handle them with or without Kendrick Perkins.

As for the Lakers, Kobe Bryant and his teammates might be no better than the fourth best team in the West. The two teams form Texas appear to be duking it out for the #1 seed, and the Oklahoma City Thunder will look pretty threatening once they get their trade acquisitions (Perkins and Nazr Mohammed) in the rotation. Thus, the chance of the Lakers coming out of the West certainly aren’t what they were this time a year ago, and given that they may have to play two or even three tough series on the road this postseason, makes it all the more likely that they will not reach the 2011 NBA Finals.

But if Boston’s bet is that they don’t have to worry about the teams with size, then that means they are preparing themselves for teams without it; namely, the Miami Heat. This is a pretty smart bet, unless it isn’t. The Miami Heat, fresh of losses to the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks, certainly don’t have any girth in the middle right now, but they aren’t necessarily looking like the team to beat. Sure, they could be the main obstacle between the Celtics and the NBA Finals, but an NBA Playoff loss to the Bulls is pretty likely as well.

However, should it be Miami, the Bulls or Atlanta that the Celtics have to worry about, a player like Jeff Green, along with the possible addition of Troy Murphy, certainly does help against small-ball teams. Both players can shoot the three and space the floor. I’m not so sure either one of them can play a lick of defense, but maybe the Celtics aren’t worried about that.

Of course, that’s just another bet the Celtics are making. They think their core defensive philosophy and execution can overcome the slights of Green and possibly Murphy. If they bet right, the team with the best record in the East for most of this NBA season should be on their way to another NBA Finals. If they bet wrong, it’s the other teams in the East that would have benefited the most from this trade, and then Paul Pierce will have a response to his only comment on the Perkins trade, “I hope they know what they’re doing.”

The post "Celtics, Going With Perimeter Game, Bet on Miami and the Bulls" was originally published at TSW.

In our February NBA Power Rankings, one thing must be accounted for: the Miami Heat continue to struggle with the Boston Celtics.

The Miami Heat aren’t the only team struggling with top tier competition. The Los Angeles Lakers have taken losses to the San Antonio Spurs and the Orlando Magic within the last couple of days. And even though they beat the Boston Celtics lately, rumors are circulating that the team may be interested in acquiring Carmelo Anthony, just to bolster their chances at a three-peat.

Some teams, however, don’t appear to have any serious problems. The San Antonio Spurs have the best record in the NBA. The Boston Celtics are in just about every game they play, and as of February 14, 2011, are in first place in the Eastern Conference. And the Chicago Bulls continue to play consistent basketball as they remain just 2.5 games behind the Celtics for that #1 spot.

Keeping all of that in mind, here are the NBA Power Rankigns for the month of February.

1. San Antonio Spurs (45-9)
The San Antonio Spurs remain the league’s most consistent team in basketball. It’s actually quite surprising given their advanced age and the fact that their long-time best player is now their third best-player—at best. However, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili continue to play at all-star levels, and Richard Jefferson’s high level of play is what has the Spurs on top of the NBA.

2. Boston Celtics (39-14)
The Boston Celtics may not be the quickest or the youngest team in the NBA, but they sure don’t have a problem beating teams that are more athletic than them. Having handled the Heat, Magic and the Knicks this season, the Celtics only struggle appears to be with teams that are bigger than them. That’s okay. A lot of that will be rectified when Kendrick Perkins gets back to full strength and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal are back on the floor for Boston.

3. Dallas Mavericks (38-16)
A mist all of talk about the most star-studded teams in the NBA, the Dallas Mavericks are playing some outstanding basketball. With Dirk Nowitzki back and healthy, the Mavs have been rolling, winning 9 of their 10 games. In fact, the only reason their record is as relatively bad as it appears to be is because they have had the toughest schedule among the top 10 teams in the NBA. With that said, the Mavericks have a much easier schedule for the remainder of the season, and they would appear likely to fend off the Lakers for the second best record in the Western Conference.

4. Miami Heat (39-15)
It’s hard to hold on to our prediction that had Miami winning the NBA Championship this season, but we will ride this thing until the wheels fall off. What keeps us going is the fact that the Miami Heat are ranked third in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Of course, those rankings could be boosted by excelling against inferior teams. But it should come as no surprise that despite those rankings, they still continue to struggle with Boston, which happens to be an even more efficient defensive team than the Heat.

5. Chicago Bulls (36-16)
I am not quite ready to put the Bulls ahead of the Heat (and neither has John Hollinger for that matter!). Still, one has to recognize, that despite being beaten by Miami in “fanfare” all season long, the Chicago Bulls are only a few games behind the Heat and have yet to lose to anyone in their unbelievably weak division. We should get a good idea of exactly who the better team is in the next three weeks, as these two teams will face off twice during that time span. As for this whole Derek Rose for MVP thing, I’m in the LeBron camp right now, but if the Bulls prove to be the better team, I may have to change my vote.

The post "NBA Power Rankings: Top 5 Teams" was originally published at TSW.

At this point in the NBA season, we know which teams are good and we know which teams are bad. What we don’t quite know, and this is important for the Power Rankings, is how well each team fairs against playoff teams. Sure, some teams have faced very rough competition and have proven themselves worthy against all odds. However, other teams have failed to face any tough stretch of games to this point in the NBA season, and it suffices to say, such teams have a lot to prove.

Thus, you will probably notice that in this edition of the NBA Power Rankings, we have given some credent to good teams beating good teams. Teams that have inflated their schedules against basketball squads not destined for the playoffs didn’t fair too well in our rankings, or didn’t make the Top 10 at all. So, for all of you New York Knicks fans out there, don’t fret, your team has their chance to make this list if they can prove themselves on this road trip.

1. Miami Heat (30-9)

The Miami Heat are just too nice right now. Almost as soon as the decision was made, we made it clear that our pick to win the NBA Championship is the Miami Heat. Yes, we backtracked a little bit after the Heat’s two losses to the Boston Celtics, but we haven’t reversed our sentiments. The Heat are still the favorites to win it all, and the last 6 weeks of basketball should be all the proof you need. They have won 20 of 21 games, 9 of their last 10, and their final margin average is +8.6 over the last 10 games. They are going to be a tough team to beat for the rest of the year, especially as Mike Miller gets back in the swing of things. Look out East, there’s a beast among you.

2. San Antonio Spurs (31-6)

The San Antonio Spurs proved to have a chink in their armor this past week. They lost to the up-tempo Knicks and the slow-tempo Boston Celtics—however, the Celtics sped up the tempo on that game. Perhaps the Spurs just can’t play up and down basketball anymore, as we were accustomed to seeing them do for years against the Phoenix Suns, until of course, last post-season, when the Suns ran the Spurs out of the building. That being said, the Spurs have the best record in the NBA, and both of those losses were on the road. It would be much harder to speed up the tempo against the Spurs in their homebuilding, and so long as they maintain this level of play, they will be playing the majority of their postseason games in San Antonio.

3. Boston Celtics (28-8)

The Boston Celtics took down the Spurs, and yet I still have them behind San Antonio. Really, it’s for no other reason than each team’s record, especially over the last 10 games. Neither team has played their best basketball, but the Spurs have been slightly better against a slightly tougher schedule. Not to mention, Kevin Garnett is currently out with an injury, and so long as he isn’t on the court, it’s hard to make the Celtics the favorites in any regard.

4. Orlando Magic (25-12)

We still don’t like the trades the Orlando Magic made all that much. Call us crazy, but there doesn’t seem to be an answer to the question: who is going to play significant time for the Magic if and when Dwight Howard gets in foul trouble? It’s a dilemma that will undoubtedly be tested in the post-season, and unless the Magic get a basketball-savvy, veteran, big-man post player between now and the trade deadline, their previous two trades may come back to hurt them.

5. Chicago Bulls (24-12)

The Chicago Bulls are a funny team to us. They can beat any team in the league, but they can lose to any team in the league as well. They are currently on pace to host a playoff series this summer, which would suggest they are among the Eastern Conference elite. However, losses to the Knicks and the 76ers and Nets concerned us, but then again, they just beat Boston on Saturday, so we have to give them some credit.

6. Dallas Mavericks (26-10)

Dirk Nowitzki is hurt. Caron Butler is done for the season. And the Dallas Mavericks owner, Mark Cuban, is feuding with Phil Jackson. What else can go wrong? The Mavericks looked like the best team in basketball for a while. Now they look like a fledgling NBA squad. Once Dirk gets back, they should be find basket-ball wise, but mentally, I don’t know if they can get over losing their best wingman for the rest of the year.

7. Los Angeles Lakers (27-11)

The Los Angeles Lakers are fresh off destroying the New York Knicks with their size. Yet for some reason, when really bad teams come to town, the Lakers get blown out. Perhaps it’s a lack of concentration, and that happens with two-time champions from time-to-time. But if the Lakers don’t step up soon and they have to take this group of misguided characters on the road during the postseason, it’s going to be difficult for them to make it back to the NBA Finals for a fourth year in a row.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (25-13)

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are playing like men this season. Forget the up-and-coming title, Westbrook is one of the best point guards in the NBA right now, and he may even be the best player on his team.

9. Utah Jazz (25-13)

The Utah Jazz were overlooked coming into the 2011 NBA season, but Deron Williams has let it be known that so long as he is on the court, his team is always in contention. Well, we’ve heard you now Deron.

10. New Orleans Hornets (22-16)

The New Orleans Hornets were the early darlings of the NBA season. They won like 100 games in a row before losing, and they were the first non-quality team to beat the Miami Heat. Those were better times though. The Hornets have are 8-16 over their last 24 games, with most of their wins coming against the creampuffs of the NBA schedule. It’s unlikely that you will see the Hornets up here during our next NBA Power Rankings post, so enjoy it while you can New Orleans.

The post "NBA Power Rankings: January" was originally published at TSW.

It is Week 3 in this experiment that is the Miami Heat.

So far, not so good.

Despite a 5-3 start to the season, I still remain entirely of the belief that a team consisting of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh must be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, and my utterly-annoying stance that they are the favorites to the win the NBA championship has not dissipated.

The Heat have a long, long way to go before they can be considered the favorites though. No, this is not an overreaction to their loss to the Utah Jazz at home on Tuesday night. This is a reaction to their loss against Utah, the New Orleans Hornets and the Boston Celtics.

As you might have noticed, these three teams have 3 things in common. They all have top tier point guards. When it comes to seeing the floor, there is no doubt that Rajon Rondo is the best thing going in basketball right now. When you’re talking about the point guard that best penetrates the defense and makes plays passing and scoring, you have to say the name Chris Paul. And when you’re talking about a big, devastating point guard that can’t be physically matched by any 1-guard in the league, that guy’s name is Deron Williams.

All three of these guys managed to knock off the Heat in their first attempts at doing so—with the Heat’s latest execution by point guard coming at home in the comforts of Miami, Florida. The Heat now stand at 5-3, with all 5 of their wins coming against teams lacking a premiere point guard. So what does that say about their chances of winning the NBA title in 2011?

Not a lot, but enough to make me backtrack.

At the end of the day, the only legitimate teams in the Eastern Conference with a premiere point guard are the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. Nobody knows what kind of condition the Boston Celtics will be in once May rolls around. And the Chicago Bulls and Derrick Rose are so young, that it’s hard to consider them the favorite in a 7-game series with the Heat, when most of them haven’t even seen the second round before.

Then there’s the Western Conference. The West is full of top point guards, but fortunately for the Miami Heat, they would only have to face one of them during the playoffs. The Heat don’t have to go through both Deron Williams and Chris Paul, because they don’t play in that PG-laden conference. At worst they have to face just one of them and will have the better team. At best, the Miami Heat could play the Los Angeles Lakers, a team that doesn’t even have a premiere point guard.

So in light of the fact that playing premiere point guards won’t become a 7-game issue for this team. I still believe that the Miami Heat will win the championship. But are they the favorites? No.

“But isn’t calling them my pick to win the NBA championship and then saying that they aren’t the favorites a cop out?” Of course it is! But that doesn’t make it inaccurate!

That’s why when any basketball fan out of South Florida watches an NBA game today, they boo the Heat and root for the other team. The Heat have the pressure on them. They are expected to win and they have the talent to do so—and nobody doubts that.

The question is, can the Miami Heat put it together in time for a deep playoff run, or will top point guards ruin the Heat’s season?

If you believe in the former, you are sticking with your guns and think the Heat’s 3 losses aren’t at all that important at this point in the season. If you’re worried about the latter, you agree with me.

You’ve been warned.

The post "Point guards trip up Miami Heat… Again!" was originally published at TSW.

The 2010 NBA Basketball season is approaching us and everything seems set up for a season unlike any other. Never before has the basketball conversation extended through the entire summer and competed with the NFL like it has this season, but with that new-fangled team down in Miami, this year is sure to be full of unprecedented occurrences.

The Eastern Conference has certainly gone through some changes. Obviously, there’s that new trio in Miami that perhaps makes them the best team in the NBA. However, Chicago got stronger, the Boston Celtics may have gotten stronger, the Milwaukee Bucks will be better if they’re healthy, and the New York Knicks have even improved slightly. So even though most of us are ready to crown LeBron James and Dwyane Wade as the kings of the Eastern Conference, these other teams in the East are looking a lot more competitive than they have in recent NBA history.

Still, if you put a gun to our heads, we think the Miami Heat finish the 2010-2011 NBA season on top. As for the rest of the East, here are our predictions for how the final power rankings in this conference will look come April of 2011.

1. Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are clearly the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA right now, and while his throne is in question given his terrible playoff series against Boston and the ever-winning nature of Kobe Bryant, he remains the best basketball player in the game until someone knocks him off his throne. And of course, when you combine the best basketball player in the game with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the picture really begins to look bleak for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Not to mention, having tremendous role players like Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem on the basketball squad give the Heat one of the most complimentary lineups I have ever seen on a basketball court. The East may have one or two more teams with a little more chemistry than the Heat, but I’ll take talent 7 days of the week, and the Heat are unquestionably the most talented team east of the Mississippi.

2. Boston Celtics

Orlando Magic fans might find this blasphemous, but given how the Celtics almost swept the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals last season, no one should be surprised that the Celtics are and should be the better team this season. In fact, if there is going to be an Eastern Conference team to knock off the Heat, this one may be it. The only thing going against the Celtics is their age, and if Coach Doc Rivers can just get KG, Pierce, Allen, Shaq and Perkins into the playoffs on two good legs, Boston will enter the postseason with the most experience of any team in the East. Of course, health is about as predictable and reliable in the NBA as the New York City Bus Schedule, but seeing as how this team really has nothing to play for during the regular season, Doc Rivers should be able to limit any regular season wear and tear.

3. Orlando Magic

Okay, Magic fans, here is your respect. The Magic are very talented, and yet they still have less talent than the other two teams above them. That all could change though if Dwight Howard developed an offensive game over the summer. While I have no way of knowing that prior to the start of the season, one can only suspect that if he made the same type of gains this summer that he made last summer, at the very least, he’ll add one or two offensive movies to his skill set. Still, the Magic remain a team with backcourt that doesn’t appear to be as good as that of its counterparts, and their forwards are as hit-or-miss as you can get. That’s why we just couldn’t give this team the same vote of confidence we gave the Heat and the Celtics, but the Magic are just one trade away from surpassing either one of those two teams.

4. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls truly are an under-the-radar team right now. Is it not possible that this team is as good as any other team in the East? Just think about it. With all due respect to Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose could be the best point guard in the East by the time this season is over. Joakim Noah is probably the second best defensive center in the conference. Carlos Boozer can put up the exact same numbers as a Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. And Luol Deng and Ronnie Brewer are every bit the role players that Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller are—if not maybe better. Listen, we aren’t thinking pie-in-the-sky for the Bulls finish to this season, but we’re not ruling out at least one big upset in the playoffs via the mighty hand of the Chicago Bulls.

5. Atlanta Hawks

Don’t get us wrong, the Hawks are a fabulous team with fabulous talent, but they just seem to be treading water right now. Was giving Joe Johnson more money than anybody else in the NBA the right move? Probably not. But it was the only move they could make. Nobody else was coming to Atlanta and the Hawks are destitute if they get rid of their best player, no matter how God awful he was in the playoffs. The Hawks just don’t have the discipline, or the size, to compete with these teams above them, but they do have the talent to put together a huge number of wins in the regular season. A good seed is the Hawks only chance of playoff survival, but even that comes into question if they wind up trading Jamal Crawford before season’s end.

As for the rest of our projected NBA rankings…
6. Milwaukee Bucks
7. New York Knicks
8. Charlotte Bobcats
9. New Jersey Nets
10. Washington Wizards
11. Indiana Pacers
12. Philadelphia 76ers
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
14. Detroit Pistons
15. Toronto Raptors

The post "NBA Basketball Predictions: 2010-2011 Eastern Conference Power Rankings" was originally published at TSW.

Since the end of the 2007-2008 NBA season, when Kobe Bryant won the NBA’s MVP award, I have been arguing that LeBron James is the best player in the NBA .

Why did I deter away from Kobe in the very year that he won the MVP?

For starters, LeBron was a more prolific scorer, rebounder and passer that year, beating out Kobe in all three of those statistics, as well as a few more advanced metrics too.

But it was bigger than stats. It was more about stature. Sure, Kobe had just gotten Pau Gasol and took the Los Angeles Lakers to the NBA Finals that year. But when asked to rise above it all, deliver for his team, and push the envelope against what was probably a “slightly” superior Boston Celtics team, Kobe couldn’t do it. And I’m not talking about winning the series, he couldn’t even keep things respectable. The fact that Kobe allowed the Celtics to win that series in six games, and saw a 20-point lead turn into a loss, didn’t sit well with me. Mind you, this occurrence went down only a couple of weeks after LeBron James scored 45 points, with a bunch of ragamuffins, in a narrow Game 7 loss to the Celtics.

In my mind, that was all I needed to see. Here LeBron James was helpless and hopeless, and yet he nearly pulled off the upset against the Celtics all by himself. While Kobe, on the other hand, with goo-gobs of talent around him, went down in flames to that same Celtics team. When the clock struck zero on the 2008 NBA Finals, I knew a change had come; LeBron James was now the best basketball player in the NBA.

And I think it’s safe to say that a lot of people, knowingly or unknowingly, made a similar change in their stance, maybe not at the same time as me, but before too long. Because it was that following April that the writers named LeBron James the MVP of the NBA—his first of two consecutive such awards.

Here we are, two years later. Have the recent events of NBA Free Agency changed my mind at all? Has LeBron James gone from best player in the NBA to second-rate because he moved from Cleveland to Miami to join a three-headed monster?

Nah. Not at all.

Even when you factor in the more than disappointing performance in the Cleveland Cavaliers loss to the Boston Celtics, LeBron still remains the best player in the NBA. Kobe was nice during the regular season, and was awesome in the playoffs and in the NBA Finals. But LeBron still delivered, and while he didn’t come through in the end of that series, it’s hard to say it was all his fault when his second and third best players failed to do anything of remote significance in any of the Cavaliers losses to Boston.

With that established, I am not going to be cemented in this stance forever. In order for LeBron James to remain the best player in the NBA, he has to show it to me on the court. I can’t watch Miami Heat games and go, “Oh, LeBron could have scored 40 points tonight, but instead he let Dwyane Wade do it.”

Nah, that mess won’t fly. If LeBron is going to remain the best player in the NBA, he has to show it to me. He has to put up the 30 points, the 8 assists and grab the 8 rebounds. This isn’t “whatif.com,” this is real life. If he wants my MVP vote, he better put up some MVP numbers, have several MVP moments, and at the very least, be the MVP of his team. Quite frankly, if Dwyane Wade is the one doing the majority of the scoring, hitting the game-winning baskets and acting like the leader of this team, then how can I honestly sit there and give the MVP award to LeBron James?

Really…how?

Because he’s more talented?

Hell, Greg Oden has plenty of talent too, but I can’t give him an All-Star vote while he’s riding the pine or giving the Portland Trailblazers 20 minutes off the bench. I need to see the talent in action. I need to see the dunks, the shots, the passes, and “Yes,” I need to see them in large volumes.

Sorry, efficiency ratings don’t win MVP crowns alone—you have to compile the numbers behind Player Efficiency Ratings to make them worth looking at. Otherwise, they are no more valuable than the “Per 36” metric, which mine as well be named the “you would average this if you played a lot of minutes, but unfortunately, you’re not good enough to play a lot of minutes” statistic.

In all seriousness, what is about to happen? Is the most talented player in the NBA still going to exhibit his talent, or will he tone it down because the players around him are good enough to carry the load on most nights.

I have never been one of those that believe that a player’s actual value to his team determines his MVP status—quite frankly, that would make the MVP award a team award and not an individual award. However, in this special instance, LeBron’s team does matter.

If Wade and Chris Bosh combine to make the Three Kings of Miami an unstoppable force and LeBron James takes a back seat as a facilitator, I don’t know if LeBron can win the MVP award. As good as LBJ is, he’s not necessarily the best facilitator. Everyone says he’s “more Magic than MJ,” but that’s not exactly a correct assessment. Magic didn’t need to score to be effective, LeBron James does. Without the scoring, he’s just a big, not-so-quick point guard. In fact, without the scoring, he may not even be all that great of a point guard. It’s the fact that LeBron can get his shot, get to the rim and finish at any time he wants to that puts fear into opposing defenses and opens up the passing lanes for his assists.

Should LeBron take on a passive role, how much of that fear would be there, and how will teams play him? Will LeBron be as effective or prolific if teams play off of him and make him pass the basketball elsewhere? And Lord knows that if Wade gets the ball in a favorable position, it’s not all too likely to find its way back to LeBron on the same possession. That’s not to say the Heat will somehow fall victim to such a strategy, but perhaps LeBron’s numbers will.

And if LeBron isn’t putting up the numbers, who can surpass him in 2011 NBA MVP award race and possibly as the best player in the NBA?

Well, already many people think Kobe Bryant remains the best player in basketball. His two consecutive championships and five rings certainly give merit to that belief, and Kobe just might win another in 2011 (although our Power Rankings don’t necessarily agree). Then again, Kobe himself is slowing down, and is more likely to save what he has left for the NBA playoffs, rather than be in contention for the MVP crown.

How about Deron Williams? Some may consider that a stretch, but with Carlos Boozer gone, Williams will have to carry the bulk of the load for the Utah Jazz. Certainly, this big point guard is more than capable of doing it, as he has done it time and time against for Utah. It’s quite arguable that Williams was the best player in the sweep against the Lakers in the second round. He average 22 points and 9 assists that series, despite being the focal point of the Lakers defensive efforts. Who knows what he’ll do not that more scoring opportunities are in his future as someone on Utah has to make up for Boozer’s 20 points a game.

Then there is the two-time Defensive MVP, Dwight Howard. Why can’t he finally win an overall MVP award? It really wouldn’t take much. If Howard continues to play like that on defense, and brings his offensive game up as little as 15%, he’s a lock for the MVP award, especially if LeBron takes a step back.

And how can I forget LeBron’s own teammate, Dwyane Wade. Wade might see this as his opportunity to get one. Far be it from to me to suggest something so selfish for a guy who has been anything but that (basketball-wise) since bringing LeBron to Miami, but he has to think about his legacy to. Seriously, if LeBron is relegated to point guard then that means somebody else has to do the bulk of the scoring. As long as Wade doesn’t get “Steve Nashed” by LeBron and the writers, the MVP award could be Wade’s for the taking.

However, the guy that’s in the best position to dethrone the former King of basketball, is the very guy who was the runner up to him last season. Kevin Durant, unambiguous and not self-righteous, could very well hoist the MVP trophy a year from now. He’s the best pure scorer in the league, he has incredible rebounding skills, and he plays defense much better than even I thought prior to the start of this season. Then again, if defense mattered in this thing, Steve Nash never would have won two MVPs in a row.

Still, as much as some of us (perhaps including myself) would like to think that LeBron’s reign as King Monarch is over now that he’s a member of the newest oligarchy in basketball, LeBron James still has more talent than anyone else on the court. If anyone can convert himself from a 30, 8 and 8 guy to a 15, 12 and 12 guy, it’s LeBron James. And Lord knows if he averages a triple-double and leads Miami to 70 wins, it’s going to be hard for writers not give him the award. And it will be just as hard for me not to continue calling him the best player in basketball.

The post "Zo Knows: LeBron’s MVP throne is in jeopardy" was originally published at TSW.

Teams haven’t even solidified their rosters, and yet we are already looking forward to the 2010-2011 NBA season.

This off-season’s convergence of superstars means there are only a handful of teams that can actually win an NBA Title. So consider these preseason power rankings the ones with the most movement you will see all season long.

So without further adieu, here are the top 5 teams heading into the 2010-2011 NBA Season.

1. Miami Heat
No disrespect to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, because Lord knows I was still on their side this time last year when other teams made some big splashes during the offseason in 2009. However, this time around we saw the splash heard around the world. In what was the biggest free agent period in the history of sports, the Miami Heat put together the best three players since Jordan, Pippen and Rodman were winning 70 games a season. With the acquisitions of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Heat are the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Finals in 2011. That’s not to say it’s a done deal, because I think it’s far from over, and the Lakers certainly will contest. But if you’re asking me to rank these teams, giving the #1 spot to the team most likely to win the NBA championship in 2011, then I have to go with the team with the most talent at the top, and there’s no doubt that title goes to the Miami Heat.

2. Los Angeles Lakers
Exactly how far behind the Heat are the Lakers in these Power Rankings? Not much. Not on our accord anyway. When comparing the two teams, we call LeBron and Kobe a push. Paul Gasol used to take his Memphis Grizzlies to the playoffs in a very deep western conference only to get bounced in the first round, just as Dwyane Wade had done over the past two years, so can we definitively say that Wade is better than Gasol? And as for Chris Bosh, he’s a more consistent player than either Lamar Odom or Ron Artest, but is he more talented then either of them—or even Andrew Bynum for that matter? As you can see, I was quite torn about ranking the Heat ahead of the Lakers; however, at the end of the day, the Three Kings of Miami have so much athleticism, that I just had to give them the talent edge. That being said, the Lakers have brought on Matt Barnes and Steve Blake to sure up some holes in their roster. With those two additions and a healthy Bynum, there’s no doubt in my mind that Lakers can three-peat in 2011.

3. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are a team to be reckoned with this season—even with the age issues they have going on. Like most of you, we all counted them out in the second round. What we didn’t count on was seeing the Celtics defense rise to the levels of its 2008 championship-level defense. Here these old guys were, defending the Cleveland Cavaliers with gusto; bringing the Orlando Magic’s offense to a halt; and even making the Lakers struggle down low, where they had a definitive size advantage. Can the Celtics do it yet again? I don’t know, but given how those old guys stepped up as last season, I won’t bet against them. Keeping Nate Robinson was big, but seeing Tony Allen go was not. However, if Robinson can actually get integrated into the offense, I bet he’ll be one of the top 5 scorers for the Celtics this year and will be a much bigger factor in their 2011 NBA Finals run.

4. Orlando Magic
Sadly, we had to put the Magic here. While they have done virtually nothing this offseason except for hold on to JJ Reddick, watch Matt Barnes go to the defending champs, and see Vince Carter remain a member of the Magic, the Magic still have a very talented team. I have always been a big fan of Mikael Pietrus, and with Barnes gone, perhaps that means more time from him. Rashard Lewis definitely wasn’t the player this year that he was during last year’s postseason, but if he can go back to 2009 in 2011, the Magic will be much better off. And of course, there’s Dwight Howard, who could increase his offensive game by as little as 5 or 6% this offseason and that would make all the difference in the world for this team struggling to get over the hump.

5. Dallas Mavericks
So, I know what you’re thinking? How the hell did Dallas get up here? We’re thinking the same thing. We had teams like Oklahoma City and Chicago in mind for this spot, but we just kept saying to ourselves, “If we had to gamble our lives on which of these three teams would have the best record at the end of the year, we’d have to go with the experience and regular season consistency of the Mavs.” I know you’re probably saying, “but the Mavs suck in the playoffs.” This is true, but the Bulls and Thunder aren’t exactly proven playoff winners, so we can’t anoint them either. Besides, with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler and Shawn Marion on this squad, would you really bet on the Thunder or the Bulls over Dallas? I wouldn’t.

Runners up: Oklahoma City Thunder, Chicago Bulls

The post "Preseason NBA Power Rankings: 2010-2011" was originally published at TSW.

Many of you are actually angry that LeBron James went to Miami to form a three-headed monster, the likes of which is destined to run the league for many years to come. But in case you are holding out hope that somebody can knock Miami off before they make it to the NBA Finals championship podium, there is one thing you should consider:

The NBA is no joke.

Look, we will be the first ones to admit, we have the Miami Heat winning the NBA title in 2011; however, it’s not going to be easy.

Have you looked at the NBA as it stands now? The teams that are supposed to be good are good. In every division, the team’s with the highest profiles and most popular cities are the ones with the best basketball teams as we get set to enter the 2010-2011 NBA season. Don’t believe me? Let’s go through it.

In the Pacific Division, the highest profile teams are the Los Angeles Lakers and the Phoenix Suns. Those two teams are also the best two teams in the division, so that division will produce two good teams.

In the Northwest Division, the Denver Nuggets and a healthy Portland Blazers team are the two best teams in the division. And when you look at the options in the Northwest (Utah, Oklahoma City and Minnesota), it’s easy to see that Denver and Portland have two of the best fan bases in this sect of the NBA.

In the Southwest division, you have Dallas and San Antonio as the two teams. If you’re rooting for the NBA, you would like to see Houston in the mix, but at this point and time, the San Antonio Spurs are a higher profile team, even as they continue to age out of contention.

Moving out east, we have the Southeast Division. Not question that you want Atlanta and Miami, two diverse cities, among the division’s best. Orlando, however, breaks up those two teams, but that’s okay, because both Atlanta and Miami are very good teams nonetheless.

In the Central division, Chicago jumps to the top of the pack, while Milwaukee appears to be the second best team in this division. You could make the argument that Detroit is a higher profile city and team than Milwaukee, but given the recession and financial woes of the Pistons, it’s hard to believe that Detroit still has the financial incentive to support a pro basketball team.

Lastly, we have the Eastern Conference, where only Boston is even good enough to talk about. However, the arrival of Amare Stoudemire makes the Knicks a legitimate playoff contender, and if the Knicks pull of the miraculous and land Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul somehow this offseason, not only will the Knicks be good, but also the race in the Eastern Conference will be second to none.

So there you have it, at the top of the divisions, you will find the highest profile teams and cities in the NBA. As the commissioner of the league, David Stern has to be somewhere laughing. I mean this is beautiful, and the kind of asymmetry Stern has to like.

As for sports watchers like you and us, this is a great thing. Sure, fans in smaller markets may take a backseat for a while, but this is good for everyone. Smaller markets may not see their teams on display this season, but the reason that is has a lot do with the lack of the revenue the NBA has gotten over the past several years. But with the current alignment like it is today, the revenue will come back, along with what will hopefully be the end of this recession, and everybody’s team will again have a shot at NBA prominence.

That said, you have to like what we have in store this season. Do we still think a Miami-LA matchup is inevitable come June? Of course! But will we have a great time watching those two teams get to the NBA Finals? You better believe it.

The post "The NBA is Shaping Up for a Stellar 2011 Season" was originally published at TSW.

Doc Rivers is returning to the Boston Celtics for the 2010-2011 NBA season. While Paul Pierce is busy considering his NBA free agent options, Rivers has decided to commit himself to the Boston Celtics for at least the next season.

“A lot of soul-searching with the family,” said Rivers as he responded to how he reached his conclusion to continue coaching in the NBA. “Talking to my wife, she was really the one who said, ‘You’ve got to.’ I just think she wanted me out of the house more than anything.

“My kids all said, ‘You’re a coach. That’s what you are. And you’re a parent, and we appreciate both.’ And so that mad it easier.”

That will also make life a lot easier on the Boston Celtics, a team that could be headed for the dreaded “R” word: rebuilding. With Rasheed Wallace seemingly headed for retirement, Kevin Garnett getting long in the tooth, and Paul Pierce officially putting himself on the market at a very high price, the Celtics certainly have a lot of questions to answer if they plan on returning to the NBA Finals in 2011.

One has to wonder if Doc Rivers official stance with the team will embolden the Celtics to join the ruckus that is the current state of affairs in NBA free agency. The Celtics are currently well over the cap with Ray Allen and Pierce, but if they were to let both of them go, sign-and-trade deals could be made to bring in somebody like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire.

Of course, Rivers is all about bringing back the same team he had a season ago. “We want to go after this one more time, and we have Kevin [Garnett] and Paul [Pierce]and Ray [Allen] hopefully all coming back, so why not? Let’s see if we can do it one more time.”

The post "Doc Rivers Will Coach Celtics through 2011" was originally published at TSW.

In what has to be considered one of the biggest surprises of the last week in NBA Free Agency, Paul Pierce is joining Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James in the 2010 free agent pool.

Last night, Pierce’s agent told ESPN.com that the Boston Celtics forward would opt out of his current contract and test the free agent waters. This is a bit of a surprise, because Pierce is slated to earn $21.5 million during the 2010-2011 season. Of course, he’s not forgoing that $21 million for nothing.

The Celtics can sign Pierce to a four-year maximum deal that would be worth $96 million over the next four seasons. And if it’s another team that wants to give Pierce the max, they could pay him as much as $93 million over the next four seasons—which means Pierce is risking at most just 3% of a possible maximum deal with Boston—or is he?

To be honest, if I were a team that spent the last year or two clearing salary cap space in order to get LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh, I certainly wouldn’t spend my money and the next four years of my salary cap on Paul Pierce, a guy who wasn’t necessarily the best player on his team game-in and game out last season. So if Pierce really thinks he can push the Celtics into giving him what he is fully allowed to get per the Collective Bargaining Agreement, like the New York Knicks, Pierce may want to have a back-up plan.

However, speaking of back-up plans. Let’s say it’s over in Boston. It doesn’t look like Rasheed Wallace is coming back for the 2011 NBA season, and Ray Allen is already in free agency. The Celtics may want to build around Rajon Rondo, the lone member of the Celtics with great upside who doesn’t need reading glasses to study Boston’s playbook. Could Pierce forgo whatever less than stellar offer the Celtics are sure to send his way?

Possibly.

And if so, what team would be willing to pay Pierce’s price. Like I said, I don’t see a team giving him the maximum for 4 years, but if you’re a team that struck out on the major free agents, would it not behoove them to get a go-to player like Pierce for the next two years, even if you have to him $30-$40 million for those two years? Listen, I know it sounds crazy to give a 32-year old that kind of money, but Pierce is better than a lot of people on this market, maybe even players like Joe Johnson and Dirk Nowitzki, so I don’t see him not getting at least $15 million for a short contract.

What’s the risk for a team to do something like that? Chances are, unless you’re the Chicago Bulls (a team unlikely to full strike out this offseason), you’re going to suck if you don’t get a big time super star. So why not clear the roster, land Pierce, give your NBA rookie prick from this season and the year past some time on the court, and reevaluate where your team stands two years from now.

I understand that no team vying for LeBron James wants to settle for Paul Pierce. But who knows; given their track records against one another, you just may get the better player is you sign the one already with a ring, and the king, at his disposal.

The post "Could Signing Paul Pierce Help Your Team?" was originally published at TSW.

The 2010 NBA Draft is Thursday June 24th, and there is probably going to be a lot of movement this week and on draft day because of all the hype concerning the free agent period set to start next week.

Right now, the Los Angeles Lakers, who just won the NBA Championship, appear to be the favorites to win it all again in 2011. Of course, there are 5 months in which the other teams can make moves to put a dent in the Lakers chances. We all know the teams that are in a position to challenge the Lakers throne, but what moves do they need to make in order to actually knock off Kobe Bryant and the Lakers? Let’s take a look.

Boston Celtics
The Celtics were right there. They had a 13-point, second-half lead in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, but couldn’t get it done. It’s possible to say that had Kendrick Perkins not been injured, Boston might be the team to beat in 2011. Thus, I think we have to look no farther than the big man position to find what the Celtics need in order to win the NBA Finals next season. Their depth at that position just wasn’t enough when you factor in how old Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace are. Neither of them was reliable from game to game, and Glen Davis is too small to be depended on against the likes of the Lakers—no matter what kind of performance he had in Game 4. I expect the Celtics to take a long, hard look at how they can steal Chris Bosh. They are already considering letting Ray Allen go, and perhaps they can sign and trade him, some future Draft picks and maybe Glen Davis to create a package the Toronto Raptors might be interested in. That would leave the Celtics with a nucleus of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo and Chris Bosh. That’s an improved “Big Four” if you ask me; although, I will admit the Celtics would struggle to create a lucrative enough package to get it done.

Orlando Magic
It’s clear that Vince Carter was not the guy for the Orlando Magic. Carter just isn’t ready to step up and be that dependable player that a team can depend on in the fourth quarter, and he proved that with his performance against Boston. It might be hard to ship Carter, but they do need to consider it. In all honesty, bringing Hedo Turkoglu back might be the best option. So I know what you’re thinking: is there a possibility that a Carter for Turkoglu trade could go down, resulting in Vince going back to Toronto for the a second stint? I know Carter probably wouldn’t like it, and I don’t think the Magic would have the heart to do it. But Turkoglu is going for cheap, and current Raptors management probably doesn’t have an issue with Vince Carter anymore. This is a trade the Magic have to consider, because when they had Turkoglu, they were a much better team.

Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are poised to be a contender—if they can get out of the first round. Many thought they would take the Lakers to the brink this postseason, but they were done in by the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs. The Mavs just don’t have that edge that should be provided by their superstar player, Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas needs another big time player to go with Dirk, and that player would likely have to be a big-time shooting guard. Dallas probably won’t land any of the big names, but there is one guy I think could be of considerable help to the Mavericks cause. Michael Redd, who will be returning from a season-ending injury, is a terrific shooter, who knows how to carry the load for an offense. Will he be the same when he returns? I don’t know. But I doubt his shot will disintegrate, and if he can be even 75% of the athlete he was before the injury, he will still be a very effective weapon from the outside—somewhat similar to what Ray Allen brings to the court.

Teams not mentioned:
Cleveland Cavaliers
Phoenix Suns
Utah Jazz
Atlanta Hawks

The reason I didn’t mention any of the above teams is because they have questions concerning the return of their top players. It’s hard to predict what moves a team is going to make to better it self, when the most important move they have to make is signing it’s own players. So while the Cavs, Suns, Jazz and Hawks, as currently constructed, are certainly one or two people away from challenging the Lakers, they are also possibly one week away from being lottery teams in 2011.

The post "NBA Trades That Need to Happen" was originally published at TSW.

There were a lot of people that weren’t “sure” about the Los Angeles Lakers. Yeah, we all had them as the prohibitive favorites to win the NBA Finals before the season started, but with Kobe Bryant’s injuries, the Lakers slide late in the season, and Ron Artest’s inability to fit into the offense, no one was as sure about the Lakers bringing home the championship. Yet as we sit here today, there is no more questioning the Lakers. They are the NBA Champions of the world.

In last night’s Game 7, the Los Angeles Lakers captured the NBA Championship for the second year in a row by beating the Boston Celtics 83-79. It was not the prettiest of games, as the Celtics shot just 40.8% from the field, and the Lakers were even worse at 32.5%. The three-point shooting was nothing to brag about, blocking out on defense was a chore for both teams, and the two Finals MVPs of the last two years, Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant, were about as awful as possible, shooting a combined 11 of 39.

Sometimes it’s the worst games that have the prettiest of finishes. Yeah, there is one school of thought that likes to see both teams playing at their highest levels to produce an offensive masterpiece. However, there is the school of thought that the uglier the game, the better it is. Last night’s Game 7 was really ugly, but that ugliness kept the game close, and in the end, both teams did finally show up. The Lakers came back in the fourth quarter, and the Boston Celtics fought tooth and nail to try to recapture their earlier lead in the closing minutes. Kobe Bryant, as awful as he was, still finished with 10 fourth quarter points and 15 rebounds, and Rajon Rondo’s 14, 10 and 8 was good enough to keep his team in it until the finish.

Ultimately though, this will go down as a big part of the Lakers legacy. They have won 6 NBA Championships in the last 11 years, all while navigating the bumps in the road that make up the NBA. Their current all-time great, just tied Magic Johnson for the lead in Lakers championships. And their all-time great head coach captured his 11th championship and 5th with the team.

Yes, it’s all smiles in La-La land, where even the writers and directors can’t put together a better script than this. No, there was no underdog story in 2010—there never really is in the NBA. And perhaps this was an ending all-too many of us saw coming way back in October. But when you see a team really enjoy the thrill of winning a championship the way that the Lakers did last night, that has to put a smile on your face—unless of course you’re a Celtics fan, in which case, I feel your pain.

The post "Lakers Are the 2010 NBA Champions" was originally published at TSW.

At the end of the day, everybody who watched Game 5 of the NBA Finals is going to recall what Kobe did in the third quarter, look at the box score and say Kobe Bryant had a great day against the Boston Celtics even though the Lakers lost 92-86. And it’s hard for anyone to argue with that given that Kobe scored 38 points on 13 of 27 shooting, a percentage that was hurt only by the fact that he was basically compelled to take some terrible shots late in the fourth quarter to help keep his team alive.

However, even as somewhat of a stats guy myself, I won’t let the numbers fool me. And as a guy who loves to break down the game tape as well, I won’t let Kobe’s brilliant third quarter overshadow everything else I saw on the court in Game 5.

In case you don’t get where I’m headed, Kobe didn’t have a great game. In fact, I would even go as far to say that in some respects, he hurt his team last night. I’m not trying to excuse the effort of his teammates in any way, because their inability to even show a heart beat in Game 5 was more than enough to seal the Lakers fate last night. Still, Kobe’s poor shot-selection, hogging of the ball, and 1:1 assists to turnover ratio didn’t exactly help the Lakers cause either.

Kobe’s 3rd quarter, for the umpteenth time, was masterful. He couldn’t miss, and without him, the Lakers would have been blown out in the third and the Celtics may have never looked back. But did you see the shots Kobe was taking? Outside of an awkward-looking alley-oop play, all of Kobe’s 3rd quarter points came via the jump shot. While it was a rare display in the mastery of the mid-range game, Kobe’s shots were often contested and seldom the result of the Lakers offensive system. In Kobe’s defense, his teammates were making the Triangle offense look more like a circle, but Kobe didn’t help things by often demanding the ball early in the shot clock, allowing the Celtics to set up and key in on whatever Bryant was about to do offensively.

Simply put, Kobe was selfish and should have passed the ball more. That hadn’t been the case for much of the playoffs, but for all of Kobe’s tough shots last night with Ray Allen’s hand in his face or two defenders running at him, Kobe had other options most of the time. Lamar Odom, who was 4 of 6, certainly deserved more touches. In fact, Odom was the only Laker that had a positive plus-minus differential in the game, and when you watched Odom get his touches, you can understand why–the Celtics had no answer for him last night. The fact that Odom had just 6 shots last night is a testament to the fact Kobe was going after his at times when he didn’t have to. Some of those difficult shots Kobe took should have been passes to Odom, or even Pau Gasol, who despite having an off night, still shot an adequate 42% from the field.

For perhaps the first time this series though, the biggest knock on Kobe wasn’t his shooting; it was his overall concentration level. Kobe’s 4 turnovers were the result of some really bad decisions. During a crucial moment in the fourth quarter he just essentially dribbled the ball away. In addition, he threw away a couple of balls on bad passes. Also in the concentration department, Kobe failed to give Rajon Rondo his full, undivided attention. Rondo was credited with 1 offensive rebound, but there were numerous times in which Kobe allowed Rondo to position himself for an offensive rebound without so much as putting a hand Rondo in an effort to block him out. And while I understand that they were cross-matched, there were times when Kobe had more than ample time to get back on defense, but Rondo just beat him down court and created plays for either himself or his teammates.

As Lakers fan read this, I’m sure they’re scoffing. I’m sure they want to look at last night’s game and only make the case that Kobe needed more help. Kobe did need more help, but he also could have helped himself. I’m not saying that had Kobe been flawless the Lakers would have won the game, but I’m also not going to sit here and accept the notion that Kobe had nothing to do with the team losing. The Lakers supporting cast could have played better, but Kobe could have played better as well. As a result, the team as a whole is down 3 games to 2, and if Kobe has another game like the one he had in Game 5, 38 points or not, there won’t be a Game 7.

The post "Kobe Doing (Selfish) Work?" was originally published at TSW.

Kobe Bryant did everything he could to do what someone savvier than I once called, “putting the ball in the hole.” With 38 points on the night, the Los Angeles Lakers superstar tried to be the savior for his team, but he just couldn’t out shoot the quality shots and the effort coming from the Boston Celtics side of the ball, as Boston beat the Lakers 92-86 in Game 5 of the NBA Finals to take a 3 games to 2 lead in the race for the championship.

Hurting the Lakers cause was Paul Pierce, who after not being much more than a passerby for most of the NBA Finals, finally got it going against Ron Artest in Game 5. Pierce just couldn’t miss last night, hitting long-range jumper after long-range jumper in an effort that can only be described as MVP-ish. The funny thing is, Ron Artest continued to use his superior strength and quickness against Pierce, forcing Pierce into taking 17 shots outside of the paint, including 13 long two-pointers. However, it didn’t seem to matter. Pierce made 10 of his 17 shots from outside of the paint and converted 8 of his 13 long two-pointers, each of the 8 stinging the Lakers in the side the poisoned thorn. Pierce would finish the game with 27 points, his highest total of the series and by far his best game against Artest.

Kobe wasn’t bad either. In fact, Kobe was awesome. Kobe took on the challenge of matching Pierce’s mid-range game, going 13 of 27 from the field overall, while making 6 of 12 long-twos on the night. Kobe contributed in other ways as well, grabbing 5 rebounds and dealing out 4 assists.

However, Kobe’s biggest problem was the lack of help he got from this teammates. Despite the fact that Kobe scored 17 points in the third quarter, the Lakers still lost the quarter 28-26 thanks in part to the Celtics shooting better than 70% through the first three quarters of the game. And it wasn’t until the fourth quarter that somebody not named Kobe Bryant broke into double-digit scoring, and that was Pau Gasol, who scored just 12 points, but had 12 rebounds, for the entire game. The Lakers just couldn’t overcome the bad effort from Gasol, not with Derek Fisher shooting 2 for 9, Ron Artest shooting 2 for 9 and Sasha Vujacic going 2 of 5.

The Celtics, however, came to play as a team. We didn’t see the point production from the bench that we saw in Game 4, but the effort was still there. Nate Robinson seemed to make the right play every time, Rasheed Wallace shot 50% and grabbed 4 rebounds, Kendrick Perkins was his usual aggressive self, and Tony Allen came up with one of the best blocks of the playoffs on a potential Pau Gasol layup.

As for the Celtics stars, Kevin Garnett looked more like the KG of old, shooting 6 of 11 from the field while mustering up 18 points and 9 rebounds. Ray Allen’s impact was limited given he missed all four of his 3-point attempts, but he still shot 5 of 10 from the field for 12 points on the night. Rajon Rondo was huge, shooting 9 of 12, scoring 18 points and dealing out 8 assists. And we already mentioned the work Paul Pierce put in.

When you add it all up, it was clear that while Kobe did what he could, he just didn’t have enough help around him. The Lakers supporting cast forgot to support in Game 5, something you don’t expect to see from the reigning champions of the NBA. And if we see it again come Tuesday night, it’s safe to say it will be the last time we see it this season.

The post "Kobe Gets No Help, Celtics Take 3-2 Lead" was originally published at TSW.

Paul Pierce foolishly suggested that the Boston Celtics weren’t going to be coming back to Los Angeles for a potential Game 6 in the NBA Finals. The media’s assumption was that Pierce was suggesting that the Celtics would win the series in Boston. But maybe we didn’t give Paul Pierce enough credit in the objectivity department. Because any sane person coming off a 2-for-11 performance wouldn’t dare suggest that his team was going to win three straight games. Thus, it’s quite possible that Pierce, who’s averaging just 16 points per game in the 2010 NBA Finals, was inclined to say what he said because he truly believes the Los Angeles Lakers will win the series in five games.

Okay, so I’m kidding—at least half-kidding anyway.

The truth is that “The Truth” did a little too much talking for the second time around. Normally, I don’t mind such chatter—in fact, I encourage it. However, when chatter bumps heads with reality, common sense has to step in. Enter, Ron Artest.

While Paul Pierce is playing sub-par basketball during the Finals, we can’t blame it all on Pierce. One could easily look at Ray Allen’s 0 for 13 game in Game 3 and say that performance had more to do with Allen than the Lakers defense. But in the case of Pierce, he’s not getting the looks he’s accustomed to. With exception to Game 1 of the series, Ron Artest has for intents and purposes shut Paul Pierce down.

Of course, a quick glance at the numbers will tell you all you need to know about the Artest vs. Pierce matchup. Pierce’s average of 16.3 ppg is just the beginning of the story. Pierce is averaging just 12.5 ppg in the last two games of the series, and overall, he’s shooting a disappointing 36% from the field. Pierce’s defense has been mostly non-existent, which is quite concerning given that he was instrumental piece in the defense of Kobe Bryant two years ago, when the Boston Celtics won the NBA Finals. Not to mention, Pierce hasn’t even been the greatest decision-maker, as his assists-to-turnover ratio stands at a meager 2:1. All of these stats can be considered even more discouraging when you factor in that Pierce is averaging 40 minutes per game.

However, this is bigger than just numbers. Even if I never saw the result of Pierce’s shot attempts, passes or drives to the rim, I would still be confused by Pierce’s approach to the game. He’s not taking over, he’s not demanding the ball and he isn’t looking for his shot in a fashion we would expect the Celtics best player to do. The pick-n-rolls aren’t being run for Pierce, you rarely see him get to his spot, and outside of 13 free throw attempts in one of the most foul-inclined Game 1’s in NBA Finals history, Pierce has only gotten to the free throw line 9 times in the last two games. In comparison, Rajon Rondo, an otherwise low-volume shooter, has been to the free throw line just as many times as Pierce has in the last two games.

So what’s the deal?

Isn’t it clear? Ron Artest is doing what he’s supposed to do: slowing Paul Pierce down.

Call it the size, the lack of intimidation, or even the possible quicker feet, but whatever it is, Ron Artest is keeping Pierce in front of him and away from both the paint and the free throw line.

Yes, Pierce did manage 24 points in the first game of the NBA Finals, but at the same time, that game was out of reach late in fourth quarter, and Pierce needed both 46 minutes and 13 free throws to get there. But even if we chalk Game 1 up to Pierce, the last two are decidedly in Artest’s favor, and it makes you wonder if Pierce will ever get back on track in these Finals?

Well, don’t count on it. Not that I’m doubting Pierce’s ability, I just think this is a tough matchup for him. After all, whom else could guard Pierce for three straight games, with no help defense and still limit him to 16 points per game and 36% shooting? Not many. However, Artest is able to do this, because he takes away what Pierce does best. Pierce likes to over power people with his size and strength, but Artest is stronger than him. Pierce likes to use that quick elevation to get to the line or get a good look on a jumper, but Artest is quicker than him. Pierce likes to “school” people with his “old-man” skills, patience and experience, but Artest is as crafty as anyone in the league. There’s just no part of Pierce’s arsenal that Artest can’t defend, and it’s showing up on my TV screen and in the box score.

So while Artest’s offensive numbers of 7 points per game and 30% shooting may seem like a detriment to the team, it’s Artest’s defensive ability that has helped the Lakers attain this 2 games to 1 lead in the 2010 NBA Finals. And if Pierce continues to be limited by the defensive prowess of “Ron-Ron,” Pierce’s prediction that this series isn’t going back to Los Angeles may have been more clairvoyant than any of us would have ever imagined.

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The post "Ron Artest Is Doing His Part for the Lakers" was originally published at TSW.

You live by the three, and you die by the three.

It’s an old, familiar saying, but it’s one that rang true in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The three ball was a savior for one team and a nail in the coffin for the other. The three-ball introduced one team into the series and took the mojo out of the other the team with the momentum.

The Boston Celtics were 11 of 16 from behind the arc in Game 2. The Los Angeles Lakers were a woeful 5 of 22. The end result? A 103-94 victory for the Celtics, which took home court advantage in the series with that win.

It was Ray Allen who sparked the Celtics long-range game. For whatever reason, the Lakers allowed Allen to get his shot time and time again, and in the first half, he burned them every chance he got to. Allen hit his first seven three-pointers and finished 8 of 11 from three-point land. He finished with 32 points in Game 2, this just three days after not even making a three-pointer in Game 1 and scoring just 12 points.

Rasheed Wallace and Nate Robinson helped from the outside as well, as did Rajon Rondo who had a triple-double, yet again, in Game 2.

The Lakers, however, found the three-point ball a lot more difficult to come by. Kobe Bryant was 2 of 7 in what was an all-around bad night for the Black Mamba. Jordan Farmar somehow decided to take four three-point shots, and he only made one of them. And to top it all off, Ron Artest took the bait and shot six shots from behind the arc, making just 1 of 6 on the night.

All and all, the Lakers took 22 shots from three-point land while Boston took just 16. Without even thinking about how many makes each team had, you can see from this shot selection that the Celtics dictated what the Lakers did on offense. The Lakers are not a team that should be taking 22 3-pointes a game. They are the longest team in basketball and their best player is somebody who certainly knows how to finish in the lane. If you watched the game, you know why the Lakers took 22 3-pointers. The Celtics packed it on them, daring the Lakers to take the outside shot and/or give it to Artest on the outside. The end result was a Lakers team that failed to take advantage of their size and finished Game 2 with just 26 points in the paint.

The Lakers cannot afford to become outside shooters against the Celtics in Game 3, or any game hereafter. Taking threes destroys everything the Lakers are trying to do. It takes shots away from Pau Gasol, it limits their offensive rebounding opportunities, which in turn limits their ability to get second chance points. The three-point ball is kryptonite to the Lakers game, and not even super man, Kobe Bryant, can save them if they are shooting a high volume of three-point shots that aren’t going in.

As for the Celtics, they can live with the three-point ball. It actually feeds what they do. Rajon Rondo did and will dominate you if his teammates are hitting the outside shot, because that opens up the lane for him and allows him to create opportunities for everyone else. The three-point ball also gives the Celtics a better chance at offensive rebounding, because they can’t bang inside with the Lakers, and those long offensive rebounds off threes give active perimeter players like Rondo and Paul Pierce a chance at stealing some offensive boards.

The Lakers have been here before though. They were forced to take the three against that Phoenix Suns zone in the last round, and they adjusted later on. They will have to adjust quickly here if they want to win Game 3 in Boston. Otherwise, the three-point ball will kill the Lakers yet again, while it does just the opposite for the Celtics.

The post "Living and Dying by the Three" was originally published at TSW.

Pau Gasol said it with out so much as a smile on his face.

The day after the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the 2010 NBA Finals, Gasol described Kevin Garnett as less aggressive, more of a shooter and having lost a step.

On Kevin’s part, he’s also lost some explosiveness. He’s more of a jump shooter now you could say, comes off the lane. Before he had a really, really quick first step and was getting to the lane and he was more aggressive then. Time passes and we all suffer it one way or another, but he’s still a terrific player, a terrific competitor, and he’s going to bring everything he’s got. You can count on that. ~ Pau Gasol

Kevin Garnett, not surprisingly, disagrees with Gasol’s assessment.

Garnett didn’t exactly come out and say he disagreed with Gasol, but the fact that he had “no comment for [Gasol’s] comment” speaks loud enough for me.

The only problem with Garnett disagreeing with Gasol is that Gasol is right. Garnett is less aggressive, has lost a step, he does shoot from the outside a lot, and he clearly has aged. Sorry, KG, it’s the truth.

The numbers don’t lie. While KG does go “inside” a marginal amount more than he did in 2008, when the Celtics won the NBA Championship, you can see the lack of aggression and the settling for jump shots in KG’s severe drop off in free throw attempts. Yes, the move from Minnesota to Boston offered KG fewer opportunities to make plays, but even when you compare KG’s free throw prowess now to what it used to be two years ago when he joined Boston, you will see a drop-off of exactly 25%, from 5.2 attempts per game to 3.9.

Not to mention, you can see KG’s rebounding numbers falling off as well. Forget about KG’s MVP season when he was raking in 20% of all missed shots. You only have to back to the Celtics championship season, when KG boarded 16.8% of all rebounds. But now, that number is down to 15.1% this past regular season, which amounts to a drop off of over 10%. That’s the difference between grabbing 10 rebounds in a game and grabbing 8. A huge difference? No. But is that margin big enough to note the decline Gasol pointed out? Certainly.

I’m all for Kevin Garnett proving Gasol wrong and having the game of his life in Game 2 on Sunday night. However, I’m not sure KG can do that anymore—especially on the nightly basis. Sure, he could get angry tomorrow and hustle out a 20 and 15 game if his teammates pitch in. But then what will he do on Tuesday, the following Thursday and again next weekend?

KG is aging. It happens to them all. Tim Duncan isn’t the same guy anymore. Shaquille O’Neal isn’t the same guy anymore. Heck, even Steve Nash and Jason Kidd have demonstrated signs of depreciation in minutes and/or play. It happens to the best of them.

Most players realize that. Most players figure out how to fine-tune their game to fit the team they are playing with. There’s no doubt that Kevin Garnett did that when he came to Boston. He became a great defender and an efficient jump shooter for a Boston team that really needed that from the four-position. If KG can rev himself up for that role again, he will have done his job, I won’t point any fingers and Gasol won’t be running his mouth after the game.

However, I’m afraid of what KG might do in Game 2. We might not see him defer. We might not seem him hit that open jumper. His talent and age have been questioned, and anyone that knows KG knows Garnett is going to play with Gasol’s comments serving him as motivation. That might mean passing up on an open jumper for a drive to the rim, throwing a nasty elbow in the paint, or getting in foul trouble trying to be too aggressive with Gasol in the post. Man, the damage could be never-ending.

So which KG will show up? The KG of old, or the old, kind of dirty, KG of late? Who knows, but I’m 100% sure Pau Gasol will find out rather quickly.

The post "Called Out: KG Stand Up!" was originally published at TSW.

Paul Pierce and the Boston Celtics have accepted (or possibly proclaimed) the role of underdog. Recently, Pierce talked about how “not everybody” had them beating Miami, how nobody had them beating Cleveland and how nobody had them beating Orlando. Naturally, he went on to say that nobody has them beating the Los Angeles Lakers in these 2010 NBA Finals.

Paul Pierce is partially right (except for the Miami thing), because the overwhelming majority of people did have them losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers. I think a lot of people may have thought the Orlando Magic were going to advance because of home court advantage, but I’m not convinced that the entire world was as sold on Orlando as Pierce would make it out to be. As I have said before, the Celtics took a better Magic team to 7 games last year sans Kevin Garnett, so it was only natural (to me) that they would beat this year’s Magic team with Kevin Garnett.

But I digress.

My real point here is to illustrate the mindset of Paul Pierce, and it’s one that I’m not too sure about. I know some NBA players like to put themselves in the position of underdog as a means to motivate themselves. However, is that a good thing? Is accepting the role of underdog the right way to go?

Two years ago, when the Celtics won the NBA Finals, the Celtics weren’t underdogs. They finished the season with the best record in the NBA, were the favorites to win the Eastern Conference and were the favorites to win against the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. You never heard any mention of being an underdog—not out of their mouths! Yet here we are, these once-removed NBA champions acting as if they are the underdogs on the world’s biggest stage. Don’t get me wrong, most people are picking the Lakers, but no one out there thinks it’s a foregone conclusion, and everybody I know picking the Lakers has the series going 7 games and is hedging their prediction on the health of Andrew Bynum. To put it mildly, nobody’s picking the Lakers with complete conviction—not even me!

And yet Pierce is comfortable making the Celtics out to be something they aren’t. They aren’t overwhelming underdogs. Not everybody is picking the Lakers to win. And nobody is questioning whether Boston “has a chance” in this series. So what’s with Pierce’s take on this? Why is he happy to be the underdog as he stated in an interview on Wednesday?

I don’t like it. I don’t like that approach. I haven’t heard the whole team adapting that stance, but I wouldn’t doubt that Paul Pierce’s words go a long way with the team.

But why accept the underdog role?

Typically, the underdog tag is given to teams that go on to lose. Sure, we have the occasional upset. Villanova did beat Georgetown and the Pistons beat the Lakers in 2004. But usually, the best the underdog does is give us an “almost moment.” For example, the Titans “almost” beat the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl, and more recently, Butler “almost” clipped Duke in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Championship.

And Paul Pierce definitely does not want to be the next person in the history of the “almost moment.” He has a ring. He has a great team. And he has been lifted into a category of players that we the people don’t associate as underdogs. He shouldn’t accept the underdog role. He shouldn’t like being the underdog. He should be mad that someone might even consider the Celtics the underdog. He should reject the notion that the Celtics aren’t favored. He should go to the podium, before the game, and tell everyone that the Celtics are the favorites. And why not? Their starting five has never, ever lost a playoff series. Why start accepting that it’s conventional wisdom that such a streak should come to an end?

One could say that these are just words, and that Pierce is simply taking a perspective that motivates him to play even harder. But that’s a slippery slope for me. When I think of winners, I don’t think of guys that accepted being underdogs. Not that Pierce isn’t a winner, because clearly he is, but could you even imagine Michael Jordan coming out and saying that he likes being the underdog against the Bad Boy Pistons or Magic’s Lakers? You can’t imagine it, because Jordan doesn’t even know what an underdog is.

I might expect somebody like Steve Nash, Vince Carter, Joe Johnson, Dirk Nowitzki or Carmelo Anthony to accept the role of underdog, because they haven’t even sniffed the NBA Finals. But for Paul Pierce, a guy who almost two years ago proclaimed himself to be the best player in the world, to come out and say he’s an underdog—that’s just blasphemous.

I can’t sit here and say that Pierce’s words will affect his play, but I do think this is bigger than just words. You don’t call yourself an underdog unless you really have that mentality. And I just wonder that if things start to go wrong, or the game is tight and Kobe Bryant is hitting all of his shots, how does the underdog in Paul Pierce respond to that?

I know that the “world’s best player-Pierce” responds to that by knocking down a couple of jumpers of his own. But this guy—this “underdog Pierce”—who knows what he’ll do?

I know one thing; we’re going to find out whether or not the Celtics actually are the underdogs that Pierce is making them out to be within the first two games of this series.

The post "NBA Finals Preview: Boston Celtics and the Underdog Mentality" was originally published at TSW.

For one tiny, little second, some people questioned the audacity of proclaiming the Eastern and Western Conference Finals over after the first two games in each series. While those series wound up being more competitive than they started out, the teams I had winning did win. Thus, my way, way in advance prediction of an NBA Finals matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Los Angles Lakers still has some meaning a couple weeks later. And unfortunately for Celtics fans, I’m sticking to the original NBA Finals prediction I made during the conference finals.

The Boston Celtics have probably had one of the better runs in recent NBA History. As the four seed in the conference, the Celtics were anything but the favorites to come out of the East, nevermind when the NBA Finals. But despite their regular season slide, the Celtics beat Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Dwight Howard—the three biggest stars in the East, and perhaps three of the four biggest stars in the entire NBA—in consecutive order. And none of those three series saw a seventh game.

As a result, anyone who thinks the Celtics are heavy underdogs in this series are mistaken. Head coach Doc Rivers put it best when he said that his current starting five players have never lost a playoff series together. And he’s right. The combination of the Big Three, with the Big One in Rajon Rondo, and the big man in Kendrick Perkins, are undefeated in postseason play when they are all healthy and ready to go. This is why I believe this series will go a lot further than it probably should, despite the fact that the Los Angeles Lakers are the more talented team in this Finals matchup.

Before Boston Celtics fans go crazy, let’s just look at the talent we’re talking about. At the point guard position, yes the Celtics have a decided advantage, but Derek Fisher is a veteran, who will make all the right plays and really good decisions. Yes, Rondo should and will have a great series against Fisher, but he won’t be able to capitalize off Fisher’s mistakes, because Fisher doesn’t make any.

Once you get past the point guard position, the Celtics advantages are obsolete. At center, a healthy Andrew Bynum is much better than Kendrick Perkins. But even if he isn’t healthy, I’d rather have Lamar Odom on the block than Perkins. At the power forward position, you can see how far we’ve come since 2008, because is there any question that Pau Gasol is a better player than Kevin Garnett at this point in his career? At small forward, yes, the Celtics have Paul Pierce, but how good will he perform against the defensive prowess of Ron Artest? Artest is quicker and stronger than Pierce, and the last time Pierce had to go on the offensive against a guy that was both quicker and stronger than him, he had a horrible offensive series.

Then we get to the shooting guard matchup. This may actually be the best of the remaining four positional matchups for the Celtics, because while Boston has no match for Kobe Bryant, there’s no way in hell Kobe can guard Ray Allen for 38 or 40 minutes off all those screens. Thus, you will probably see some cross-matching in the backcourt, with Kobe likely to guard Rajon Rondo, and Derek Fisher taking responsibility for following Ray Allen off of all those screens. That would still leave Allen with a decided advantage over Fisher, but it would take a lot of what Rondo does away, because in all honesty, I think Kobe would, at the very least, hinder Rondo’s best traits as a point guard.

As for the bench play, I see very little difference between the two teams. Assuming Bynum is still somewhat hobbled, the Lakers bench isn’t the same with Lamar Odom getting starters’ minutes. Thus, the only real advantage on either side could be the play of Rasheed Wallace. If Wallace is the player we saw flashes of last series, the Celtics could get a real lift from their bench in the NBA Finals. But that’s wishing on a shooting star. Wallace will be up-and-down during the NBA Finals, just like he has been all season long. If the Celtics get more “ups” than “downs” from Wallace then they should be happy to get that.

With all of that said, this series still comes down to its two superstars: Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant. Unlike in 2008, the Celtics don’t have as many players to throw at Kobe Bryant on the defensive end. That means Paul Pierce will have to take a considerable amount of the Kobe-stopping responsibilities, and we saw his offensive game deteriorate when he had to defend LeBron James two rounds ago. And as I alluded to earlier, Pierce won’t be defended by Kobe, he’ll likely draw Ron Artest. That’s a huge advantage for Kobe, because outside of Ray Allen, whomever else he guards, Kobe’s man won’t be half the scoring threat Pierce is. That will allow Kobe to relax on the defensive end and be a monster on offense.

Pierce may be a better defender than he gets credit for, but he’s no match for Kobe “Bean” Bryant. Thus, I like the Lakers to prevail and to win the NBA Finals in six games. That’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it!

The post "NBA Finals Prediction: This Series Goes 6 Games" was originally published at TSW.

I want to see history as much as the next person. Even though I deemed this series over after Game 2 and stand to look like a fool if the Orlando Magic wind up coming back and winning the Eastern Conference Finals over the Boston Celtics, I’m willing to risk all kinds of embarrassment if I can see the first team in the history of the NBA overcome a 3-0 deficit.

However, as much as I would like to see Orlando make this never-done-before feat happen, I’m far from believing that it will actually go down. Somebody has to explain to me exactly what the Magic have done to warrant any belief that they are going to win this series.

Orlando’s first win was in Game 3, a game they had to have in order to save face. Their win signified just one win out of four games—something that isn’t terribly impressive in the least.

Orlando’s second win in Game 5 of the series was their first win at home this series in three tries. Going 33% at home isn’t exactly something that is all that impressive to me, irregardless of what the final score of the game was.

To put it simply, I’m not impressed. The Magic have simply done what any desperate team should do, they played their best basketball in times of desperation. While it’s nice that they stole a game in Boston and finally won a game at home, I just don’t see myself giving them credit for something they should have done when the series started.

That being said, I will quickly change my opinion if and when the Magic beat Boston in Boston in Game 6 on Friday. I guess you could call that the obvious point and time in which to consider Orlando back in this series, but it’s not my fault that it will take until Game 6 for Orlando to get my attention.

A Game 6 win will be the first time the Magic assume a dominant position in this series. They will have a better record in Boston than the Celtics themselves this series, they will have taken home court advantage back, and they will enter Game 7 on a three-game win streak in Orlando—if they win Game 6. Should the Magic get the “W” on Friday, then and only then, will they be something to reckon with.

But that hasn’t happened yet, and I’m not sure that it will. Just remember, every time the Magic have been in a situation to make a statement in this series, they have failed. As nice as these last two wins were, they have proven nothing other than the fact they are actually going to put forth some effort this series.

Try as they might, unless the Magic win Game 6, this series was a complete and utter failure for the Magic, and I don’t think any credit should be given for two wins they should have gotten before desperation set in. So don’t call this a comeback until it actually is one. As a New York Knicks fan, I am all to familiar with a team getting drummed for a long stretch of time and then coming back only to fall short of digging themselves out of the hole they put themselves in. That’s all the Magic have done to this point. They fall deep, and they’re trying to scale that summit before it’s too late. And until they reach the peak, I’m not giving them any credit. None whatsoever.

The post "Don’t Call it a Comeback…Yet!" was originally published at TSW.

The Boston Celtics have to be the most disrespected team of the 2010 NBA Playoffs, and writers like me are to blame. Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe wrote last week that the whole world viewed the Celtics series with the Cleveland Cavaliers as LeBron James losing instead of the Boston Celtics winning—and he’s right.

I wish I could say that I have learned my lesson, and that I am going to write this beautiful manifesto about how the Celtics went out and took it to the Orlando Magic in on Sunday in their 92-88 victory in Orlando.

Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised by the fact that the Orlando Magic were beaten and beaten soundly on Sunday. Sure, the final score would make one believe that it was a 4-point game, but anybody who watched it knows that the Celtics, without playing all that well, beat the Orlando Magic like they stole something.

How did they do it?

Well, they actually didn’t do much. If you ask me, all the Celtics did to win that game handedly was bring Kevin Garnett back from the dead (he missed this series a year ago) and watched the Orlando Magic dig themselves deeper and deeper into a hole.

This is exactly why we shouldn’t be surprised by the Celtics win.

Last year, the Orlando Magic needed seven full games to beat a Boston Celtics team that was without its most important player in Kevin Garnett. It was that very fact that caused me to be disturbed by any notion that the Magic could win the NBA Finals. I mean, if a team can barely beat another aging, old team when that old team doesn’t have its best player, how good are they? Ask anyone following that Celtics-Magic series who would have won the matchup had a healthy Kevin Garnett played and everyone would have picked the Boston Celtics. Well, here we are, a year later, KG’s back and healthy, and the Celtics are on track to win this series against an Orlando Magic team that no one thinks is significantly better (if at all) than they were a season ago. So what’s with the surprise surrounding the Celtics victory?

No one should be taken aback by this. It’s simple logic. The Orlando Magic are not as good as their record and accomplishments would denote. Yes, they are the reigning Eastern Conference Champions. Yes, they have the best record of the remaining teams in the NBA Playoffs. And yes, they have the Defensive MVP clogging up the middle of the lane.

But the Boston Celtics are the Eastern Conference Champions 1-year removed, and would have beaten Orlando a year ago with the healthy roster they have now. Boston would also have a better record if not for a regular season filled with injuries. Not to mention, KG is not the defensive guy he once was, but he too was a defensive MVP not so long ago, and more importantly, Kendrick Perkins is more than capable of clogging up the lane as the second leading shot-blocker in these playoffs, and he’s stronger than Dwight Howard in the paint.

So where does that leave the Magic? If you ask me, they are the prohibitive underdogs in this series, and no one should be all that surprised or concerned to hear that. There’s nothing in Orlando’s makeup that should lead us to believe that they are good enough to win this series. They don’t have a playmaker on offense. They don’t have someone who will attack the rim with both regularity and efficiency. And they can’t draw the double teams with Howard that they were used to drawing in the two playoff series before this one.

So am I writing the Magi off?

No.

But am I picking them to win this series?

Of course not!

The Magic are a good team with a lot of good parts. But as we learned a year ago, when the Magic face a team with championship merit, they don’t have the final pieces to be competitive, never mind them having the ability to actually win the series.

Thus, the Boston Celtics, the most disrespected team of the 2010 NBA Playoffs, will likely march on to the NBA Finals. And just like the Celtics last series, the talk will likely center around how poorly the Magic played and how surprised everyone is that they lost. But that won’t be me—not this time. Admittedly, I was guilty of looking past the Celtics a series ago, but come the end of the Eastern Conference Finals, I will not be caught off guard covering the losing team.

The post "NBA Playoffs: Celtics Undoubtedly Have Upperhand over Magic" was originally published at TSW.

I was wrong. I was 100% wrong. I thought the Cleveland Cavaliers were going to win Game 5, and there was no doubt in my mind about it. But they didn’t show up, and the Boston Celtics played great basketball. Now the Cavaliers are facing elimination, and I don’t know what to think of their chances to win Game 6 and stay alive in this series.

Part of me wants to predict a Cleveland Cavaliers victory in Game 6, but that’s the part of me that still believes this is the same Cleveland Cavaliers team from the regular season. Clearly, that isn’t the case anymore. With LeBron playing more like the LeBacle, and Mo Williams getting lit up like a candlelight vigil, this Cavs team is playing less efficient offense and more porous defense than anybody is accustomed to seeing them play. So I just can’t bring myself to go with Cleveland, even though in my heart of hearts I can’t believe this team can go out like this in second round without even seeing a Game 7.

That being said, in my heart of hearts, one has to recall how disappointed in this team everyone was a year ago. While the Orlando Magic was a formidable team, it was the lack of execution combined with the multitude of poor strategic decisions that really had everyone questioning Cleveland’s basketball supremacy. Forget the fact that the Cavs lost that series; just recall that Zydrunas Ilgauskas was shooting three-pointers, Rashard Lewis was being defended by Ben Wallace, and LeBron James was guarding everyone but Hedo Turkoglu for long stretches of the series. It was a strategic clusterfuck of ideas, and it’s hard not to remember them when we see some of the same things happening in this series against Boston.

When you think about it, the Cleveland Cavaliers have not beaten a proven playoff basketball since they beat the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Conference Finals back in 2007. Many would argue that 2007 Cleveland team was much worse than the squads LeBron James has had in subsequent seasons–most especially these current 2010 NBA Playoffs. And yet here we are, three years later, and Kings James and the Cavs have failed to beat one proven playoff team since then—unless you count beating last year’s 8-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round—but of course we don’t count them!

The only thing giving me any reason to believe that the Cavaliers can stave off elimination tonight is to go back to my original line of thought that had the Cavaliers winning Game 5, which was that the Boston Celtics would not be able to stay fresh in their third game in five days, which is what Game 5 represented. That theory was debunked by the mid-way point of the third quarter, as the Celtics started routing the Cavaliers out of their own building. So do I really believe that in Game 6, which would be the Celtics fourth game in 7 games, that the Cavaliers can pull out a win because the Celtics aging veteran leadership will be tired?

Nope. Not even I, the originator of that bullshit theory, can buy such crap.

Outside of the fact that Kevin Garnett has already labeled the stakes of this Game 6 as “do or die” for the Celtics, the Cavaliers themselves are at a disadvantage with the short (ala typical) turnaround leading up to Game 6. Since the unveiling of the injury, LeBron James has played great when has had at least two days between games. But with a mere one game between playoff games, LeBron has looked LaBaffled, shooting just 17 for 47 from the floor and 0 for 13 from behind the arc. Needless to say, things don’t look too good for the Cavs when LeBron only has one day between games.

Thus, my official prediction is that the Boston Celtics close this game out tonight! Sure, I’m putting the kiss of death on the Celtics, and at the same time I’m flip-flopping back from my “definitive” stance that the Cavs were going to win this series. But that’s what sports are all about; scanning the playing field, and reevaluating your plan of attack. Cleveland Cavalier fans can only hope that their beloved basketball team will reevaluate their game plan; otherwise, for the first time this series, I’ll be right.

The post "NBA Playoff Predictions, 2010: I Was Wrong About the Celtics" was originally published at TSW.

Nobody in Boston is going to like me for saying this, and I may be sticking my neck out there if I’m wrong, but the Cleveland Cavaliers-Boston Celtics series is already over.

Before Game 3, I said that the Boston Celtics needed to win both Games 3 and 4 if they wanted to win this series. Clearly, they did not do that. And while I am in shock by Rajon Rondo’s historical performance yesterday, there is no way I am going to let that sway my decision.

As good as Rondo was, the Celtics barely won Game 4. So even though this series very well could go seven games, there is no doubt in my mind, that in a best of three series, and with the Cavs having the home court advantage, Cleveland and LeBron James are the ones advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now you may think that’s crazy talk. How can I pick the series winner after these two teams have split the first four games?

It goes back to what I said prior to Game 3: the Celtics are old.

Tomorrow night, the Celtics will play their third game in five days. No, that’s not exactly a grueling 3 games and 4 days regular season road trip, but it’s as close as you will get to that in the NBA playoffs, and I just don’t think the aging Spurs veterans can handle it.

Do you?

No offense to Paul Pierce, but he is already having enough trouble scoring against the defense of LeBron James. Kevin Garnett, while respectable, seems to get slower with every passing day. And Ray Allen, the most energized of the three, goes on these hot and cold streaks that are so hard to predict, that I can’t really factor him in as a possible deterrent to my prognostication.

I recently wrote a piece on the end of the Spurs era. They are done. They are finished. And despite the fact the Spurs beat the Dallas Mavericks, they are far from being a championship caliber basketball team—as we saw that last night in Phoenix.

Like with the Spurs win over the Mavericks in Round 1, some people are allowing themselves to be fooled by the Boston Celtics success to this point in the series.

But what have the Celtics really done? They took Game 2 in Cleveland, barely holding off a historically poor shooting effort from LeBron James. And then in Game 4, the Celtics saved themselves from being swept with aide from one of the greatest postseason performances in Boston Celtics history.

You can believe in the powers of Rondo if you want, but in all likelihood, he’s not putting up those numbers in Game 5, 6 or 7. Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird failed to put up those kinds of numbers on a consistent basis, and Rondo is no Michael Jordan.

Let’s refrain from making this series this ultra-competitive battle it appears to be in terms of the 2-2 standing, and let’s look at this for what it is happening on the basketball court. This is an old, underperforming sporadic Celtics team led by a great point guard, but a point guard that is far from being able to beat championship caliber teams by himself. Anything short of another grandiose performance from Rondo, and the Celtics will come back to Earth. Thus, allowing the Cavaliers to take two out of the next three games, in what I think is one of the most divergent, closest series I have ever seen in the NBA Playoffs.

The post "NBA Playoff Predictions: Cavs-Celtics Series is Already Over" was originally published at TSW.

The other day, I gave the Utah Jazz the kiss of death. I said they needed to win Game 2 against the Los Angeles Lakers, and they immediately went out and lost. To me, there’s no doubt that game was a must win for them, because to think they can win 4 out of 5 games against the Los Angeles Lakers is ludicrous.

I have another ultimatum for a team most would not consider to be in a “must-win” situation. However, the Boston Celtics are in a must-win scenario, and not just in Game 3, but for Game 4 as well.

Trying not to dismiss what the Boston Celtics did to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday night, the Celtics are still the underdogs in this series. That’s not to say they cannot win this series or that they somehow got lucky in Game 2, but if they are going to win this series, it will be because they won it a certain way.

Let’s not forget, the Celtics did get “punked” in the fourth quarter of Game 1, they nearly got “punked” in the fourth quarter Game 2, and dating back to the Cavs-Celtics battle on Easter Sunday, the Celtics nearly got “punked” in that fourth quarter. All of that tells me that the Cleveland Cavaliers don’t play good basketball against the Celtics unless they turn up the pressure on the C’s. Even the notoriously bad offensive-mind of Coach Mike Brown should have that figured out by now, and I expect the Cavaliers to play a lot more like they have played in the fourth quarter for the rest of this series.

Knowing that, the Celtics have to defend their home court. With all due respect to the Celtics, giving up the home court advantage they stole in Game 2 would be devastating. While the C’s are very capable of winning another game in Cleveland, I don’t foresee these aging veterans coming up with a Game 5 win in Cleveland, in what would amount to the Celtics third game in 5 days. Their age has been too much of a factor all season long, and a stretch of games like that, absent of the emotion of their home court, might do them in.

So if the Celtics want to win this series, Games 3 and 4 are pivotal. Of course, if the Celtics win Game 3 at home and enter Game 4 with the potential to go up 3 games to 1, everybody and their momma will tell you that the Cavaliers are in a must-win situation.

But I am sticking to my guns now, and I will stick to my guns then.

The only way the Celtics are winning this series is if they win both of these home games. Because the Celtics are not winning Game 5 on the road, and I can’t be the only one that does not like their chances in a Game 7 in Cleveland, Ohio.

The post "Celtics in a “Must-Win” Situation?….Yes!" was originally published at TSW.

Any sane, objective, knowledgeable basketball mind understands that the Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites in their second round series with the Boston Celtics. That being the case, anybody who has watched NBA playoff basketball for a considerable number of years can look at this matchup and see that the Boston Celtics have a chance to win this series. And at the end of the day, all anybody should need is a chance.

As for how the Celtics can take advantage of the chance they have, here are three things the Boston Celtics must do if they are going to knock of the #1 seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Read More…

The post "Three Things Boston Must Do to Beat King James" was originally published at TSW.

For the latest NBA Playoff Predictions, click here.

Well, the seeds are set, so there’s no longer a need for me to base my 2010 NBA Playoff Predictions off of future standings forecast. I can finally work with the matchups as they are and give you my picks throughout the entirety of the NBA Playoffs.

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls
The Bulls barely got in the playoffs, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are the best team in the NBA. I think there is little question as to who is going to win this series, but perhaps the Bulls will have more fight in them then many may imagine. In the three real games these teams played (the fourth game, LeBron James sat out), Chicago went, 1-2. Thus, I don’t think we are going to see a sweep here in the first round. Maybe that says more about the Cavaliers than it does about the Bulls, but between games #3 and #4, I can envision Derrick Rose stealing one game in Chicago. However, at the end of the day, King James rules.
Cleveland Wins, 4-1

#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat
This is a matchup of two teams going in two very different directions, and because of that, I am very inclined to pick the upset and go with the Miami Heat. However, there is a big part of me that cannot deny the fact that Boston has so much talent on their team. Sure, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce look older and older with every passing game, but is this team really all that less talented than they were two years ago? Especially when you factor in the growth of Rajon Rondo at the point guard position, as well as the “possibility” of a Rasheed Wallace showing up in the postseason like he usually does? If you told me these two teams were going to play the same way they played basketball over the past month, I’m picking Miami to win the series all the way. But I just have a feeling that we’ll see Rajon Rondo dominate the point guard position, while Rasheed Wallace finally gets off his ass. I like Boston to knock of Dwyane Wade and the Heat…but barely.
Boston wins, 4-3

#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats
Skip Bayless came out of his month and actually said, on national television, that he has the Bobcats advancing past the Magic in this first round playoff matchup. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, this is the one series in which I have the most confidence in. Let’s face it; the Bobcats aren’t really that good. They have some nice pieces here and there, but there’s not a player on that team that scares anybody. Yes, Gerald Wallace is a beast, and I recognize that, but the Magic aren’t sitting around scheming up ways to stop Wallace. He’s not that kind of a difference-maker. You know how is a difference-maker? Dwight Howard. And the Bobcats have no answer for him. Sure, Orlando can be as up-and-down as any team in the NBA, but at the end of the day, they finished with the second best record in the league, and they’ll show the Bobcats why that is.
Orlando wins, 4-1

#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee
The Milwaukee Bucks were looking so good before Andrew Bogut got hurt that most people would have picked the Bucks to beat Boston or Atlanta in the first round of the NBA Playoffs prior to his injury–and I believe I did just that a few weeks ago. However, in this edition of our NBA Playoff Predictions, we know how the Bucks are entering the postseason, and unfortunately, no Bogut means no “W” for Milwaukee. It really is that simple. Not that Atlanta is some dominant team that isn’t going to make gamblers lose their hair betting the line on this series, but they are the better team when Bogut is not in the lineup. With Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, this series should be an easy one. I can’t even think of a way in which the Bucks can protect the basket when those two guys come flying down the lane. Then again, these are the Hawks, and they will find some way to make this first round matchup more difficult than it needs to be. I like the Hawks, but a sound Bucks team will push them.
Atlanta wins, 4-2

For the latest NBA Playoff Predictions, click here.

The post "NBA Playoff Predictions, 2010: Eastern Conference, 1st Round" was originally published at TSW.

Kevin Garnett was extremely pissed off by the fact that Kevin Durant shot nearly as many free throw attempts as the Boston Celtics did in Boston.

One wonders if he would have been this mad had they won the game, but there’s another question as well—watch this video first though!

While Garnett’s anger over the fact that an opposing player got 15 free throws in a game on the Celtics home floor isn’t surprising, it’s also not fair.

I have never once heard Kevin Garnett come out and say that he was playing like crap, but man, props to the ref for giving me all those illegitimate trips to the free throw line.

He hasn’t said it. Never will. And I would never expect him to say it.

However, you have to understand my stance that he sounds like a little baby when he cries about Kevin Durant drawing fouls like Michael Jordan, when in actuality, KG just wishes it was him getting the calls.

Besides, it’s not as if Kevin Durant needed all that much help from the refs. The man shot 10 of 20 from the field, grabbed 8 rebounds, and would have finished with 22 points had the refs not given him a single foul call. So had the Celtics not continued to foul Durant and allowed him to get off more shots at a 50% clip, KD might have exceeded the 37 points he scored with the trips to the free throw line.

Instead of worrying about defending Durant and Durant-like players in the future, Garnett is mad because he himself didn’t get to the free throw line at all. But I saw that game. He didn’t deserve to go to the free throw line. In fact, he hasn’t deserved to go to the free throw line for quite some time now. He’s a glorified wing man that shoots elbow jumpers. He’s not driving to the rim, and his post game mainly consists of baby hooks and turnaround jumpers. He’s not drop stepping and dunking anymore, and he surely isn’t driving to the rim with reckless abandonment like he used to.

In his statistical prime, KG was getting to the line 6 times per 36 minutes. When the Celtics won the championship, it was a modest 5.2 times per 36 minutes. Last year, KG’s aggressiveness fell off, and he only got to the line 2.7 times per 36 minutes. Now, in a resurgence of sorts, KG is all the way back at 3.7 trips to the free throw line per game.

So perhaps KG should worry a little bit less about Kevin Durant’s ability to get foul calls (warranted or not), and a little bit more about his inability to get to the free throw line. Then, the Celtics might actually have a chance at being better than an upstart Oklahoma City team, in which the entire roster was probably still in elementary school when the Celtics Big 3 was entering the league.

The post "Kevin Garnett, Cry Me a River" was originally published at TSW.

Before we can do our 2010 NBA Playoff Predictions for the first round, we have to know which teams are going to finish where in the NBA Standings.

We have taken a close look at the schedule, used John Hollinger’s predictive power rankings, adjusted for our own NBA power rankings, and we came up with the final standings for each conference.

Here are our Eastern Conference final standings.

1. Cleveland – 67-15
2. Orlando – 58-24
3. Atlanta – 55-27
4. Boston – 54-28
5. Milwaukee – 50-32
6. Charlotte – 46-32
7. Miami – 44-38
8. Toronto – 41-41

With our playoff positioning now predicted and settled, here are our NBA Playoff Predictions for the First Round.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors
This series won’t even be pretty. Even if Shaquille O’Neal is available for the first round, the Toronto Raptors and Chris still have their hands full with the Cavaliers frontline, Zydrunas Ilgauskas included. Toronto’s only real big man is Bosh himself, and if the Cavs are able to draw him out of the lane, with Z at center and a small lineup, than the Raptors defense will continue to look as inept as it has looked the entire second half of the season. On the other end, the Raptors will find it difficult to get Bosh going, because the Cavs can throw so many guys at him. With Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao, Zydrunas and J.J. Hickson in the fold, Bosh’s offensive game will be severely tested. By the way, I didn’t even have time to get to that LeBron James guy, who just happens to be the most clutch player in the game.
Cavaliers win, 4-0

Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat
This game could be a lot closer than the seeding would suggest. While Orlando is the much better team with far better talent, Miami has 2 wins over Orlando, and one of the Heat’s losses to Orlando came in overtime. Call it the proximity to home or whatever you want, but Miami is not afraid of Orlando, and they will play them closely in this series. Besides, Miami also has the best player on the floor, and if Dwyane Wade goes off 2 or 3 times, that might be just enough for Miami to threaten the Magic in this series. Still, our instinct tells us that the better team will prevail and that either Dwight Howard or Vince Carter will step up and at least defend the home court advantage.
Orlando wins, 4-3

Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Bobcats
We get to our most competitive matchup to this point with the Bobcats trying to overcome the Hawks, the team we picked to win the battle for the Eastern Conference three-seed. However, in their first three matchups, the Hawks went 2-1 against Charlotte, but one of those wins came in overtime. Outside of Cleveland and Orlando, this is probably the team Atlanta least wants to meet in the postseason, because Charlotte is one of the few teams that can match Atlanta’s athletic ability. The Bobcats have an athletic advantage at the point guard spot, one of the wing spots, and at the center position. Still, Atlanta is the better team, but this series will require them to use their basketball acumen and not just their superior athletic ability. We will bet on the Hawks bringing their brains to this series, but we aren’t exactly 100% about that either.
Atlanta wins, 4-3

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Here we have a matchup of two teams that were headed in different direction for most of the latter half of the season. The Boston Celtics looked down no more than a few weeks after the all-star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been one of the best teams in the NBA since acquiring John Salmons and turning themselves into an efficient offensive machine. If you asked us to prediction this game two weeks ago, there’s no doubt that we would have the Bucks advancing to the second round. However, Kevin Garnett is beginning to look healthy, Ray Allen is getting back in the fold, and it’s hard discount Rajon Rondo, who at this point, may be the best basketball player on the Celtics. We’re still a little iffy on Paul Pierce, who doesn’t seem to have the same offensive firepower we’re accustomed to seeing from him, but in another very, very close matchup; we’ll go with the veteran talent of the Celtics.
Boston wins, 4-3

NBA Playoff Predictions: Eastern Conference, 1st Round
NBA Playoff Predictions: Western Conference, 1st Round
NBA Playoff Predictions: Eastern Conference, 2nd Round
NBA Playoff Predictions: Western Conference, 2nd Round

The post "NBA Playoff Predictions, 2010: Eastern Conference – 1st Round" was originally published at TSW.

While you were all gung-ho for the Super Bowl yesterday, other sports remained in action. The NBA didn’t stop its action, putting on one of their premiere matchups on Super Bowl Sunday. The Orlando Magic beat the Boston Celtics 96-89 in a game that really wasn’t that close—at least not at the end anyway.

The Magic were being out-smarted throughout most of their matchup with Celtics yesterday. Many would say the Magic outplayed the Celtics in the opening half, but because of stupid turnovers and bad defense, the Celtics had an 11-point lead going into the locker room. But sometime in the third quarter, the Magic turned it on and put forth one of the best quarters of their season. They held the Celtics to just 11 points, while scoring 36 themselves, most of it coming at the hands of a 19-0 run that saw the Celtics age before our very eyes. The 4th quarter was basically a wash, as the Magic merely held the Celtics off and won the game more steadily than their 7-point margin of victory might indicate.

ESPN’s Chad Ford talks about how leaving Dwight Howard in the game, despite having four fouls in the 3rd quarter, was crucial to the Magic’s victory yesterday.

The post "Magic Beat Up on Celtics" was originally published at TSW.

Well, it was only January, but we learned a lot about the NBA over this past month. For example, the Celtics last 18 games (of which they won 6) proved the Celtics aren’t as good as we thought—at least not right now. January also proved that my New York Knicks are not as good as December may have indicated.

So after that turbulent month, where do the teams rank among one another? Let’s break it down:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers – Say what you will about the Cleveland Cavaliers lack of explosiveness, but they get W’s. While Shaq has not been the addition Cavs fans hoped he would be, he has brought an interior presence to the team that has made their defense all but impenetrable at times.

2. Los Angeles Lakers – Many thought that the recent road trip would trip the Lakers up, but they’ve done okay so far. With losses coming to the Cavs and the Grizzlies, it’s not as if they dropped games to bottom basement teams like my New York Knicks.

3. Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets are quietly playing like the second best team in the Western Conference, which is quite surprising given that Carmelo Anthony has been in and out of the lineup all season long. Of course, what does help, is that when Anthony is on the floor, there’s not a player in the NBA who’s filling up the basket more often than he is.

4. Dallas Mavericks – I know the Mavs have been on a bit of a rough streak as of late, much of it due to some defense inefficiencies. You can chalk a lot of that up to it being January and the Mavs getting lazy. But they still have maintained a 30-17 record and are right behind the Nuggets in the Western Conference.

5. Orlando Magic – The Magic are kind of an enigma to me. They are fresh off a victory against the Celtics, and they have swept the Atlanta Hawks this season, but they just don’t look as good with Vince Carter as they did with Hedo Turkoglu last season. Still, it’s hard to put any team other than the Cavs ahead of them given what is transpiring in the Eastern Conference this season.

6. Atlanta Hawks – Some people are down on the Hawks, and that’s fair, because they have been up and down throughout the season. However, they are 4-0 against the Celtics and have the third best record in the NBA. And as long as they continue to keep scoring 102 points a game, they are going to be difficult to beat night in and night out.

7. Utah Jazz – Utah is the 4th seed in the Western Conference? Yes they are! At least for now. Deron Williams may be having one of his best seasons, which is why the coaches put him in the All-Star game for the first time in his career. And you have to like what the Jazz have done as of late, going 9-1 over their last 10 games, beating quality teams (Cavs, Heat, Mavs, Spurs, Suns, and Blazers) in the process.

8. San Antonio Spurs – There is reason to be concerned about the Spurs, but then again, there’s reason not to be. The Spurs are the 5th seed in the West and just 2 games back of the 3rd seed, despite not having their entire big 3 in the lineup for most of the season. I know we often put a lot of emphasis on their February road trip (when the rodeo comes to Central Texas), but I don’t think it will be symbolic of their ability this year, seeing as how Tony Parker is sidelined for the moment.

9. Boston Celtics – And then there were the Celtics—a team that appears to be reeling while their best players are aging right in front of our eyes. A trade might help them, but if KG’s knee doesn’t get any better, it’s all for not anyway.

10. Portland Trailblazers – The temporary loss of Brandon Roy is just another hit to the long list of injuries befuddling this Blazers team right now. Still, they are managing to hold steady in the race for the playoffs, and once Roy comes back, they should be quite healthy in time for the postseason stretch-run.

Bonus: Toronto Raptors – I have watched the Raptors play a lot this season, and I am incredibly impressed by what they are doing north of the border. Chris Bosh is having a stand-out season, and has become much more aggressive around the rim this season. He is really going to be a tough guard for the big men on the elite Eastern teams, Dwight Howard and KG included.

The post "NBA Power Rankings – February 2, 2010" was originally published at TSW.

Ray Allen Must Go…
I know Celtics fans don’t want to hear this, but Ray Allen is not a contributor to this team. In fact, I don’t think Ray Allen was ever a major contributor to the Celtics.

Think about. The year the Celtics won the championship, the Celtics only had two difficult battles during the postseason; the first round against the Atlanta Hawks, and the second round against the Cleveland Cavaliers—both series went to a decisive Game 7. Of course, Ray Allen didn’t show up in either of those series, and yet the Celtics managed to win anyway. Thereafter, Allen was spotty at best, and the Celtics rolled on to a championship victory, in spite of him.

Then there is last year, when Allen was given a big part of the offensive responsibilities, because KG was out with an injury. With Allen’s increased role, the Celtics were relegated to playing the Bulls to 7 games and losing to the Orlando Magic.

If you ask me, the Celtics are better off with an athletic wingman that can play defense and shoot. It doesn’t have to be some great player, just another James Posey-like guy that can play a lot of minutes and maybe even run the floor. The Celtics need someone that can really contribute and make up for KG and Pierce’s decline, something Allen can’t do as aging veteran himself.

Keeping Allen on this team, so that he can guard Kobe Bryant or LeBron James for 23 minutes a game just doesn’t have any value now, nor as the Celtics approach the postseason. So if the Celtics can get something of value in return for Allen, then they need to pull the trigger on a trade, because their window of opportunity is closing fast.

Also Read: “What’s wrong with the Celtics?”

The post "Rant of the Day: Celtics Should Trade Ray Allen" was originally published at TSW.

The Celtics just don’t look good right now. They are not playing high quality basketball, and they are not all that healthy either.

To add insult to injury, they are a tad bit overrated. While Rajon Rondo deserves his all-star bid (in fact, he should be starting), both Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, who made the all-star team, are not playing at the all-star level they need to reach in order for the Celtics to have any chance at winning their second NBA championship in 3 years.

So how bad are the Celtics playing right now? Here are the facts:

During the Celtics first 28 games, they went 23-5 and were the best team in the Eastern Conference. They were scoring 101 points per game, shooting 48.8% from the field and they held their opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game, giving them the second best point-differential in the NBA at the time.

The Celtics last 17 games tell quite a different story. The Celtics are 6-11 over their previous 17. They are scoring 5 fewer points per game (96.1), their shooting is down (47.8%) and their opponents are scoring 6 more points per game (97.6).

So what’s wrong?

Why the struggle? Well, it really comes down to 2 people.

Let’s start with Kevin Garnett. While everybody claims that he isn’t quite healthy yet, the truth is, we don’t know if he will ever be “healthy” again. Maybe this is who Kevin Garnett is right now. Sorry to be so cynical, but it’s not crazy to believe that a guy who has suffered the kind of injuries he has suffered over the past two seasons, coupled with his age, may be approaching “over the hill” status. Celtics fans, you saw Rashard Lewis drive right by him for the game-winning lay-up against the Magic. I don’t care what anybody says, but you don’t go from getting driven by like that to being a world-class defender in 1 month or two months, especially given all the time KG has had to recover form his injuries. Not to mention, KG had just 6 points and 7 rebounds in 33 minutes against the Magic, and just 10 points and 3 rebounds in 31 minutes against the Lakers. I think it’s quite plausible that KG just isn’t going to be KG again this season, nor in any season hereafter.

Then there is the question of Rasheed Wallace. When the Celtics acquired Rasheed, I immediately made them the second best team in the NBA. Perhaps, I was a bit overzealous. Granted, what Wallace does in the regular season means nothing, but he at least needs to prove that he can do the things that will be required of him during the postseason. Defensively, he can help out on the bigs, and that’s important. But where did his offense go? Against the Lakers yesterday, Wallace had just 3 points and took only 3 shots. All season long, he has avoided the post, and has shot nothing buy 3 pointers, which, again, accounted for all of his three attempts on Sunday. Overall, Wallace’s numbers as a whole are reprehensible. His effective FG shooting is down, his true-shooting percentage is down, his turnovers are up, his rebounds are way down, and this is all in comparison to his dismal season in Detroit a year ago. The scary thing is that Wallace actually has a higher usage rate this season, which means he’s taking initiative more and doing a whole lot less, and I don’t see that changing before April.

Of course, beyond KG and ‘Sheed, the team just isn’t playing cohesive defense. Once upon a time, this was the best defensive team in the league, and now they are anything but that. They were beating the Lakers down at one point in this game, up 11 points with less than 10 minutes left in the game. Two years ago, a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter was a guaranteed win for the Celtics. Yesterday, it was anything but.

If the Celtics want to get back to winning, the defense needs to step up, and both Wallace and KG need to improve their games. However, if yesterday’s loss against the Lakers was a sign of the times, I don’t like the Celtics chances this summer.

The post "What’s wrong with the Boston Celtics?" was originally published at TSW.

I polled TheSportsWatchers.com contributors not too long after that slate of NBA Christmas Day games and came up with our first in-season power rankings of the year. Usually, we like to wait until the turn of the year to start breaking down exactly where these teams stand among one another, but those great matchups on Christmas had both me and TheSportsWatchers.com contributors with too many NBA thoughts on our mind to ignore the rankings any longer.

So here they are, TheSportsWatchers.com’s first NBA Power Rankings of the 2009-2010 NBA season:

1. Boston Celtics, 23-5
The Celtics took care of business Christmas day, and with that, they got the top-notch in our power rankings. Yes, Paul Pierce is hurt, and KG may be banged up, but even with those two hobbling, they are still a team to be reckoned with. It must be nice to have Ray Allen and Rasheed Wallace to step up in Pierce’s and KG’s absence.

2. Los Angeles Lakers, 23-5
The Lakers dropped a lump of coal in the stockings of Lakers fans everywhere on Christmas day, as the Cavs and LeBron James took it to Kobe last Friday. But they are still the team to beat in the Western conference. After all, they can’t win’em all.

3. Orlando Magic, 22-8
While many of our contributors were upset with the Magic’s inability to get Dwight Howard going on offense, this team manages to stay in every game and wins a lot of them as well. We’re not as gung-ho about Howard this season, but Vince Carter really has made the Magic’s offense a little more explosive this year, and their bench is a little more resourceful than it was a season ago.

4. Dallas Mavericks, 21-9
The Mavs are just doing their thing silently. They are right behind the Lakers in terms of their record, and they have already taken to the Lake-show once this season. While most of us think the Lakers are the team to beat in the West, we’re not willing to say that the Mavs couldn’t beat them if they played a 7-game series right now.

5. Atlanta Hawks, 21-8
The Hawks got off to a ferocious start and have since cooled off, but they aren’t out of the contender picture yet. The addition of Jamal Crawford has given the Hawks an amazing boost and a much needed shooter for when they get stagnant on offense. If Josh Smith can continue to develop throughout the season, this team could play a major role and disrupting the trio of teams said to be at the top of the division.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers, 23-8
We’re sorry that we’re not giving much love to the Cavs after their defeat of the Lakers, but they still have a long way to go. Their offense needs work, and I’m not so sure that they’re fixed on a steady rotation yet. Don’t get us wrong; we think they have all of the pieces there. However, how do you turn Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon into formidable guys who can give you 35 solid minutes against the Celtics and Magic for 7 games?

7. Phoenix Suns, 19-11
Steve Nash is playing at an MVP level again, as the Suns look like the Suns of old. They’ve hit a little road bump recently, dropping 6 of their last 10, but their crushing win over the Clippers on Christmas Day may get them going in the right direction.

8. Portland Trailblazers, 20-12
What can you say? First Oden. Then Pryzbilla. Even their coach got dinged up. This team was looking as if their future had come a season early, but with those injuries, it’s hard to imagine they’ll stay this high in the rankings for that much longer.

9. Denver Nuggets, 20-10
The Nuggets are playing good basketball, but they don’t look dominant. Some of us actually think that they don’t look as good as they did in the playoffs just a season ago. Somebody needs to tell them that they can ill-afford to not come out of this season with as high a playoff seed as possible.

10. Houston Rockets, 17-12
That’s right. No T-Mac. No Ron-Ron. No Yao. Yet here the Rockets are; a top team in the NBA. I don’t know how they’re doing it. Maybe Carl Landry sacrificed his teeth for wins in some kind of idiosyncratic ceremony with Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow.

Bonus: San Antonio Spurs, 15-11

The post "NBA Power Rankings: December 28, 2009" was originally published at TSW.

The Eastern Conference is back. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the 3 of the top 5 teams contending for an NBA Championship in 2010 are from the Eastern Conference. Seven or eight years ago, you couldn’t have envisioned more than 1 Eastern Conference team among the top 10 in the league, so it’s safe to say, we have come a long way.

As we look at this newly restructured Eastern Conference, it’s safe to say that the teams at the top have good reason to see themselves playing in the NBA Finals. But how do those top teams measure up?

Here are our 2009-2010 Preseason NBA Power Rankings for the Eastern Conference:

1. Boston Celtics – The Celtics are just too much. The addition of Rasheed Wallace, coupled with keeping Glen “Big Baby” Davis in the fold, makes the Celtics the favorite to win the East in 2010. Rasheed gives them versatility that can only be matched by last year’s champion Los Angeles Lakers. But even when measured against the Lake-show, it’s hard to envision L.A. putting two big men on the court that can guard both Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace. In fact, no team in the NBA can do that. And there is so certainly no team in the Eastern Conference that will be able to match up with that. That is why the Celtics only have themselves to blame if they don’t make it back to the big stage in 2010.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron James is king, but it don’t mean a thing, if he don’t get that ring. Chances are, LeBron James is leaving Cleveland if the Cavs don’t “at least” make it back to the NBA Finals. The addition of Shaquille O’Neal should help the organization in that objective, seeing as how Shaq is the perfect, and just about the only, counter to Dwight Howard’s power game in the paint. Of course, I’m curious as to how Shaq will get out and guard that pick-n-roll against the Magic, but Shaq didn’t get 4 rings without figuring out some way to do just that. Thus, the Cavs will be beat the Orlando Magic in the 2010 NBA playoffs, should they meet again.

3. Orlando Magic – Rashard Lewis’s recent PED suspension was quite surprising, but not as surprising at the Magic going out and landing Vince Carter in a deal with New Jersey Nets. Vince isn’t the perfect replacement for Hedo Turkoglu, who handled the rock as the point guard on many occasions, but he certainly brings a more versatile scoring attack to the Magic, and he is much more adept at operating in the paint. He’s not the shooter or passer that Hedo was, so the Magic will miss that, but overall, Vince is a slight upgrade. Of course, the Magic also kept Marcin Gortat, but I think he will be traded before season’s end. And the Magic also brought in point guard Jayson Williams to play backup behind All-Star Jameer Nelson. I’d say this team is set and prime for another run at the championship, but it will be hard for them to get out of the East against either one of the #1 and #2 teams on this list.

4. Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks have kept their team in tact, and they added a nice rookie draft pick in point guard Jeff Teague. With Joe Johnson leading this team, there’s no doubt that they will be a playoff team again. However, the Hawks need more than Johnson if they want to progress and move past the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs in 2010. Getting out of the 2nd round isn’t as impossible as it may sound. With Josh Smith, a healthy Marvin Williams and a more experienced Al Horford, this team enters the 2009-2010 NBA Season as the most athletic team in the Eastern Conference. If they can finally turn that athleticism into a finely polished basketball team, the sky is the limit for them.

5. Chicago Bulls – I am sticking my neck out there, but I’m taking a flier out on the Chicago Bulls. I believe in their maturation during last year’s playoffs, and Derrick Rose is only going to get better after his rookie of the year campaign. The fact is, a lot of these same Bulls players have played much better defense in the past (they ranked just 18th last year in defensive efficiency), so certainly they can improve that aspect of their game in 2010. And this team has just enough playmakers on offense to get by, so long as Derrick Rose is playing at a high level. Sure, they will miss Ben Gordon, but I don’t think he is that irreplaceable, considering his true-shooting percentage wasn’t that high, he doesn’t pass the ball, and he turns the ball over way too much for a guy who does nothing but score.

2009-2010 Preseason NBA Power Rankings: Western Conference
2009-2010 NBA Power Rankings: The Entire NBA
2009-2010 NBA Power Rankings: Player Edition
2010 NBA Offseason Storylines
All-Decade NBA Team 2000-2009
All-Next Decade NBA Team 2010-2019
Five Bold NBA Predictions: Eastern Conference

The post "2009-2010 Preseason NBA Power Rankings: Eastern Conference" was originally published at TSW.

I know we are entering the heart of the NFL season, but it’s never too early to get a leg up on the start of the NBA season. And with most of the big name acquisitions that are going to happen this offseason having already transpire, it’s time to take a look at what some of the biggest happenings in the season will be.

So in light of everyone’s Top 5 Bold Predictions for the NFL season, here are Five Bold Predictions for the 2009-2010 NBA Season and its Eastern Conference.

1. Marcin Gortat Will Be Moved
I don’t care what anyone says, but there is no way that the Orlando Magic think that Marcin Gortat is worth $34 million as the backup center to perhaps the best center in the NBA. Seriously, how can they justify paying a backup that kind of money, when they know they would play Dwight Howard 48 minutes if they could? Believe me, Orlando will trade Gortat before the season is over. Who knows? Maybe an injury of some sort will happen, which will require the team to use Gortat as trade bait. Then they could finally save some money on a guy who is likely to be in the running for most dollars per minute played during the 2009-2010 NBA Season.

2. The Cleveland Cavaliers Won’t Beat Boston
There is a reason that I ranked the Cavaliers beneath the Boston Celtics in the 2009-2010 NBA Preseason Power Rankings. And it’s because they aren’t better than them. This is sad, because I definitely thought they were the better team this past season, even if Kevin Garnett had been healthy. However, I think they have missed their window. The Celtics have everybody back and they added Rasheed Wallace. In the end, Wallace gives the team too much versatility, and because of that, I don’t think the Cavs have a chance of winning a playoff series against the Celtics.

3. Rashard Lewis Won’t Deliver
Not to harp on Rashard Lewis’s performance-enhancing drug violation, but isn’t it crazy that, in my opinion, Lewis played the best basketball of his NBA career during the playoffs, and then he gets busted for whatever it is he tested positive for? I’m just playing. I don’t think that stuff was the reason for his success, but I do think he’ll see a lot of backlash from having used it, whether its fair or not—and it’s probably fair. Besides, whatever he was using, he probably derived some benefit from it, whether it was just mental or not, and now that he won’t have it, I think we may see a lesser version of Lewis in the 2010 NBA season.

4. Tracy McGrady Will End Up in the East
The Houston Rockets probably aren’t going to be any good this season. No Yao. No Ron-Ron. And No T-Mac to start the season. They’ll be lucky to win 3 of their first 30 games. That’s why the Rockets will probably get whatever they can and will trade Tracy McGrady to another team. But it won’t be a team in the West, because I don’t think there is a team out there that can both afford him and use him. So I think he’ll be in the East, and if healthy, that could be a huge game-changer in the Eastern Conference pecking order.

5. The Boston Celtics Will Win the East
Lastly, I may have hinted at this before, but I predict that the Boston Celtics will win the Eastern Conference. They just have far too many weapons. By getting Wallace, they covered up the one hole in their roster. Rajon Rondo will be a year older and thus should be even better than he was last season. And you have to love the evolution of Glen Big Bay Davis’s game, as he has really learned his role and how to fulfill it. And then when you add the 2.5 Hall of Famers in Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the conversation, an Eastern Conference Title seems to be the least of the Celtics worries.

The post "Five Bold 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Predictions:" was originally published at TSW.

The major moves of the NBA offseason have been made, and now it’s time to figure out just where each team stands in terms of the 2010 NBA Championship race.

So are the Lakers the favorite? Let’s power rank them all to find out.

TheSportsWatchers.com’s NBA Preseason Power Rankings
1. Los Angeles Lakers – Signing Lamar Odom was big for this team. Without him, there might have been a number of teams that I would have ranked ahead of the Lakers going into the 2009-2010 NBA season. However, Odom brings versatility, experience, height, and talent to an otherwise unimpressive Lakers’ bench. Odom also adds some reassurance should anyone in the starting lineup, Kobe Bryant included, go down for a significant number of games.

2. Boston Celtics – We never really did find out if the Cleveland Cavaliers had surpassed the Boston Celtics last year, because the Celtics couldn’t even get by the Orlando Magic without Kevin Garnett in their lineup. However, assuming KG is healthy (and maybe even if he isn’t), the addition of Rasheed Wallace all but assures that this team is more than capable of beating Orlando in a 7-game series. I also think they are a better team than the Cleveland Cavaliers, because Rasheed gives the team two versatile big men, of which no team in the NBA can match up with.

3. San Antonio Spurs – You have to really respect what the San Antonio Spurs did this past offseason. Knowing that the window for a Tim Duncan-led championship is quickly closing, the team decided to make one last push to surround Duncan with the talent he needs to help this team win a championship. Bringing in the basket-filling Richard Jefferson was a great start, and adding depth on the front line with DeJuan Blair and Antonio McDyess might have been an even better finish. Either way, this team’s success rest on whether or not Manu Ginobili and Duncan will be healthy come playoff time. But the additions the Spurs made this summer will allow head coach Greg Popovich to rest those two players more during the regular season, so there should be no excuses.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Yes, I’m ranking the Cavaliers ahead of the Orlando Magic, but I’ll get to the Magic later. With the addition of Shaquille O’Neal, this team finally has a presence inside the paint. Some worry that Shaq will clog up the lane and get in LeBron James’s way, but Kobe never had that problem when he was averaging 27 with Shaq on the team, and neither did Dwayne Wade or Steve Nash over the last 5 years. LeBron and Shaq will be just fine in terms of spacing, and they should get along in the locker room too. This team really needed another voice and talent outside of LeBron to take it to the next level, because clearly he was playing at another level during the Eastern Conference Finals, while the rest of the team should have paid the price of admission. However, I’m not so sure that Shaq will get the Cavs over the hump.

5. Orlando Magic – You can call it a slap in the face if you want to, but I do think that the reigning Eastern Conference Champion Orlando Magic won’t be back in the Finals next year. As you can see, I have them ranked behind 2 other Eastern Conference teams, two teams that got a whole lot better. The Magic, on the other hand, pretty much stayed the same. Replacing Hedo Turkoglu with Vince Carter may have been a slight upgrade, but Hedo was a much better distributor and fit better within the scheme of the offense, so I think some of Vince Carter’s upside gets negated by a lack of chemistry. Not to mention, the team will probably lose Marcin Gortat via a trade, unless they really intend to pay a backup center upwards of $30 million in a move that can only be described as Isiah Thomas-ish. That said, this team does have great talent, and they will have Jameer Nelson back at the point, so maybe I’m underrating them. However, as it stands now, this is where the Magic rank among the powers in the NBA.

2010 Preseason NBA Power Rankings: Western Conference
2009-2010 NBA Power Rankings: Player Edition
2010 NBA Offseason Storylines
All-Decade NBA Team 2000-2009
All-Next Decade NBA Team 2010-2019
Five Bold NBA Predictions: Eastern Conference

The post "2009-2010 NBA Power Rankings: Preseason" was originally published at TSW.

Rasheed Wallace’s pending arrival in Boston means two things. One, the Boston Celtics are now one of the oldest teams I have ever seen. And two, the Boston Celtics are now one of the best teams I have ever seen.

Yes, Rasheed Wallace isn’t what he once was. He is no longer the athlete that can change a game defensively nor the guy that can go for 25 points on any given night. But while ‘Sheed’s athleticism has diminished over the years, his talent still remains.

Last year, Wallace averaged a meager 12.0 points per game in 32.2 minutes per game for an offensively challenged Detroit Pistons team. Minute for minute, that’s about 3.5 points below his average, not really a waterfall of a drop-off if you know what I’m saying?

While Wallace won’t have those games where he explodes for 25, he can still have those quarters where he goes for 10 or 12 points in a matter of minutes, because he has such a knack for taking advantage of what the other team gives him. If you put a true big man on Rasheed, he will take it outside. If you put a small forward on Rasheed, he’ll go on the block. And with Kevin Garnett manning the other side of the lane, and with Ray Allen standing at the 3-point line, I find it hard to believe that, even at the advanced age of 35, Rasheed won’t do damage to a plethora of undersized forwards on the block next season.

Thus, the combination of Wallace, Garnett, Allen and of course Paul Pierce, makes this one of the most versatile team’s in the league. Both Garnett and Wallace have inside and outside capabilities. We know Pierce has a tremendous outside-inside game. And Ray Allen, although not the high-riser he once was in Milwaukee, still manages to create havoc in the lane, getting to the free throw line way more often than someone of his now limited athletic ability should be able to.

Those 4 all-time players, alongside what is currently Rajon Rondo at point guard, makes for a devastating lineup, one that I think will go down as one of the best teams of this decade. I don’t think a single team in the Eastern Conference can mess with the Celtics as they presently stand. And the West (ehemm, Lakers!) best watch out too.

The post "Rasheed Wallace’s Arrival In Boston Is Multifaceted–And Now So are the Celtics" was originally published at TSW.

Down 14 points in the 4th quarter of Game 5, the Boston Celtics seemed destined to take an “L” on their homecourt at TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. However, a strong effort from veteran, free-agent pickup Stephon Marbury, and a stunning defensive effort as well, resulted in the Boston Celtics going up 3 games to 2 over the Orlando Magic with a 92-88 win in Game 5.

Dwight Howard has seen better days, most notably last series against the Philadelphia 76ers, when he averaged 24 points and 15.8 rebounds per game. In the series against the Celtics, Howard is still getting the rebounds (almost 17 per game), but he is averaging just 16 points—8 fewer than last series. And in Game 5, Howard scored just 12 points and only grabbed 6 rebounds in the final 3 quarters of their loss to the Celtics.

But it’s not necessarily his fault they lost Game 5. Howard shot 50% from the field and stayed out of foul trouble. The problem is, his teammates only got him 10 shots; an utter abomination in a game in which the Celtics are without their best post defender in Kevin Garnett. One has to wonder exactly what head coach Stan Van Gundy is doing over there with this team, because it seems as if he is perfectly content with Howard getting fewer and fewer shots as the NBA Playoffs progress.

As for the Celtics, this was an amazing win. They were facing yet another dreary looking situation in the 4th quarter, but Paul Pierce wouldn’t allow his team to go down without a fight. He scored 19 points, grabbed 9 rebounds and doled out 8 assists. But it was Marbury’s energy off the bench that sparked their 4th quarter run. Marbury scored all 12 of his points in the 4th quarter, propelling a 13 to 0 run with 5:39 left in the game; a run that gave the Celtics a 3-point lead, and eventually the ball game.

The lone disappointment on the Celtics side of the ball came from Ray Allen, who despite hitting a big three-pointer in the 4th quarter, had another subpar game, scoring just 13 points on 3 of 11 shooting. Surprisingly though, a flu-bitten Brian Scalabrine gave the Celtics a much needed 18 minutes off the bench, and he scored 6 points in the process. And Glen “Big Baby” Davis had another playoff shining moment, leading the Celtics in scoring with 22 points while grabbing 7 rebounds, most importantly, the rebound on Orlando’s final free throw of the game.

The Celtics will now travel back to Orlando to try to knock the Magic out of the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics are undefeated in franchise history after going up 3-2 in the playoffs, and given the way things are looking, history will probably be repeating itself.

The post "NBA Playoffs: Celtics Rally to Take Game 5" was originally published at TSW.

Big Baby didn’t just hit a game-winning shot last night, he saved the Boston Celtics season. He also may have ended the Orlando Magic’s season in the process.

The Boston Celtics are the defending NBA Champions until somebody knocks them out of the NBA Playoffs. Orlando had a chance to put the Celtics on the brink of elimination last night, up 1 point with 11 seconds remaining in the game. But the handiwork of Glen “Big Baby” Davis would spoil Orlando’s night, as he hit the game winning jumper off a pick-n-roll with Paul Pierce. Big Baby wasn’t the first option on that play, and he wasn’t even the second. But when the ball came his way, he nailed the 20-something foot jumper with no time remaining, and because of that, the Celtics will head back to Boston with the series tied 2-2.

A 2-2 series is a far cry from a 3-1 series, which is what Orlando was anticipating before Big Baby sent them home with a loss. Obviously, we’ll never know how this series might have unfolded had Davis missed that shot, but most people will agree that this series would have never made it to Game 7 if Orlando got a chance to end the series on the road and then again at home before a Game 7 was even possible. But “hypotheticals” are for writers, not athletes. And with Orlando’s athletes headed to Boston to play an emotional Celtics team, they could be in for a world of hurt in Game 5.

If Orlando loses Game 5 in Boston—hypothetically speaking—they then give the Celtics 2 chances to knock them out of the playoffs, with the latter chance coming in Boston. Needless to say, that is not a position Orlando wants to be in. And it’s a position they wouldn’t be in, had Big Baby not made that shot.

The Magic won’t admit this, but that shot had to do a number on them. Sure, they’ll tell you they bounced back from a similar situation after Thaddeus Young hit a game-winner against them in their first round NBA series with the Philadelphia 76ers. But that was the 76ers. These are the Celtics; a much more experienced team that is more likely to step on their opponents throat when their down than they are to play down to their opponent’s level.

The fact of the matter is, that one shot may have cost the Magic this series. The heartbreak they suffered because of that shot may result in them not being able to win another game. And if they just win 1 more game and lose the series, everyone will point to Game 4 and say they let the series get away. It’s a lose-lose situation—unless of course they can find a way to beat Boston in Boston. They did it earlier in the series, but after suffering an emotional loss at the hands of Big Baby, I find it hard to believe that they can muster up the energy to get the win they need in Boston.

The post "NBA Playoffs: The Shot Heard Around Orlando" was originally published at TSW.

The Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics Game 4 yesterday, which ended in a 121-118 double-overtime Bulls victory, was an instant classic. The battling of Ben Gordon and Ray Allen continued, and the Rajon Rondo vs. Derrick Rose duel emerged yet again. Hard fouls, big shots, and boisterous gestures made this a game to remember, and now we really have a competitive series.

I won’t call this the best series ever, but it’s shaping up to be in the running. However, as good as this series has been, you don’t have to go back very far to come up with better NBA Playoff series with bigger and better names involved. I could point to Knicks series against the Bulls, Pacers or Miami Heat. I could venture into the great Lakers series against the Blazers, Spurs or the Kings. Or I could even bring up the amazing series between the Cavs and Celtics…just last year.

It’s standing as the best series aside; this series us unquestionably the best of the 2009 NBA Playoffs. But it is not about how good the series is, it’s about who will win it. And with this 7-game series now diminished to a 3-game series, which team can muster up the strength to win 2 out of the next 3 games?

Game 5 Prediction:
With the series set to return to Boston, and with the Celtics regaining their home-court advantage, you have to believe that the Celtics will put forth their best effort in this game. They have worked all-season long for homecourt advantage, and this type of Game 5 with the series tied is just the reason why. The Celtics are pretty much in the same position they were last year in the 1st round, returning from Atlanta to Boston tied 2-2 with a team that wasn’t supposed to challenge them. Having been in this situation before leads me to believe that they aren’t feeling the pressure of being tied with a less-experienced team, so I’m picking the Celtics to win Game 5, on their home court, in grand fashion. My Game 5 Prediction: Celtics win, 92-78

Game 6 Prediction
With the Celtics up 3 games to 2, the Bulls backs are up against the wall. But they’ve been their before. They weren’t supposed to win Game 1 in Boston, but they did. They weren’t supposed show up for Game 2, but they were right there at the end. They weren’t supposed to be able to respond to a Game 3 beatdown, but they took it right to the Celtics in Game 4. It will be no different in Game 6, as the Bulls will get back to challenging the Celtics in front of their home crowd. Really, it just comes down to limiting their turnovers and running their offense, and the Bulls will have a chance to beat Boston—especially in Chicago. That’s why my Game 6 prediction has Chicago winning 98-96, tying the series up at 3 games a piece.

Game 7 Prediction
In order to be one of the greatest series ever, it has to go to a Game 7, and considering all of the drama these teams have already been through, there is no way this series isn’t going 7 games. So who wins it?

Well, in making my Game 7 prediction, you have to look at the fact that the game is in Boston. Granted, while Chicago has beaten Boston in Boston in this series, in a Game 7 setting, it will be a lot different. I’m not sure these young Bulls will be able to fully overcome being in a hostile environment of that nature. However, it should be a close game. With everything on the line, both teams will come to play, and the Bulls will play so hard that they will overcome any stupid mistakes they make as a result of their inexperience. But the Celtics won’t just play hard, they will play well. As the defending champions and the more experienced team, they will put forth their best effort of the series. Paul Pierce will have his best game of the series, and Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo will definitely back him up with the production they have provided all series long. Thus, my Game 7 prediction for the Bulls-Celtics series has Boston winning a close one, 101-97. Boston will win this series and advance to the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs.

The post "NBA Playoffs Prediction: Who wins the Bulls-Celtics series?" was originally published at TSW.

Chicago Bulls fans have now seen the light. After winning Game 1 in their series with the Boston Celtics, the Bulls have seen Boston take over the series with a 2-1 lead after the Celtics won in Chicago last night. And while many Bulls fans out there might still be of the belief that this series could easily be 2-1 right now, the fact of the matter is that it could be 3-0 just as easily.

The free throw that altered a series.

When Paul Pierce missed the go-ahead free-throw in the final seconds of Game 1 against the Bulls, that sent the game into overtime, allowing the #7 seeded Bulls to come through with the upset victory. But if Pierce makes that free throw, ultimately the Celtics win that game, the Bulls confidence is diminished, and should Games 2 and 3 go in Boston’s favor as they have, we’re sitting here talking about the Bulls’ inevitable series loss.

But that didn’t happen, and now it has given Bulls fans false hope. Well, let me and last night’s victory take that hope right out of you Bulls fans: this series is over!

God bless, Derrick Rose’s efforts in Game 1, but he has been a fraction of the player we saw ever since then. Last night, in the Celtics 107-86 win over the Bulls in Game 3, Rose had just 9 points, 2 assists, and 7 turnovers. Far from the record-setting 36 points he scored last Saturday. Ben Gordon also came back to Earth, scoring just 15 points on 5 of 13 shooting, making just one of his 4 3-point attempts.

The difference in this game was the Celtics defense. As good as their offense was with both Pierce and Ray Allen combining for 42 points, their defense was even better. The Chicago Bulls shot just 37.5% from the field and committed 22 turnovers. The Celtics also had 10 blocked shots and 16 steals. That type of stifling defense was enough to put the upstart Bulls back in their place.

The Bulls are facing a must win in Game 4, as going down 3 games 1 puts them in the dubious position of having to in win 3 games in a row, something the Bulls haven’t done against +.500 teams all-season long.

The post "NBA Playoffs: Celtics Beat Bulls 107-86, Up 2-1 in Series" was originally published at TSW.

That was playoff basketball. And if you missed the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls face off in Game 2 of their series last night, you missed what was probably the best game of the NBA Playoffs thus far.

Don’t be fooled by the highlights! Those weren’t cut ups. Those were back-to-back plays you were looking at in the 4th quarter. In what has to be considered one of the most prolific duels in recent NBA history, Ray Allen and Ben Gordon put on a show.

Gordon finished the game with a game-high 42 points, shooting 14 of 24 from the field and hitting 6 of his 11 3-point attempts. To put it simple; the man couldn’t miss. He was hitting jumper after jumper, and in the 4th quarter, even as the Celtics double-teamed him, he continued to hit jumper after jumper. His most critical bucket came with just under 25 seconds, as he dribbled the ball from the wing to the top of the key, and he hit a game-tying 2-pointer that locked the Celtics and Bulls up at 115-115.

But Ray Allen wouldn’t be denied. Allen scored 28 of his 30 points in the 2nd half of the game, and just like Gordon, he couldn’t miss in the 4th quarter. Allen hit 6 3-pointers on just 10 attempts, on top of racking up 5 assists. But it was Allen’s late buckets that made him the player of the game. With the Celtics down 113-112, Ray Allen hit a go-ahead 3-pointer with just 25 seconds remaining. After Gordon’s aforementioned shot to knot it up at 115, Allen came back and hit a fade-away 3-pointer in his defender’s face to put the Celtics up 118-115, which would end up being the final score.

Derrick Rose followed his spectacular Game 1 performance with a 10-point, 6-rebound and 7 assists stat line. But this time Rajon Rondo would get the better of Rose, going for a triple-double, with 19 points, 12 rebounds and 16 assists. Just a cold-blooded game for the 3rd year point guard out of Kentucky.

Glen “Big Baby” Davis also scored 26 points, while his frontcourt counterpart, Kendrick Perkins, scored 16 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. Paul Pierce was held to just 18 points on 8 of 19 shooting.

The Celtics successfully salvaged a split of the series, tying it up at 1-1 as they travel to Chicago to face to the Bulls on their homecourt. They will need the rest, as both Leon Powe and Rajon Rondo suffered minor injuries during last night’s playoff contest.

The post "NBA Playoffs: Boston Celtics Beat Chicago Bulls, 118-115" was originally published at TSW.

Two really big NBA Playoff games are about to go down tonight. In each of tonight’s games, the teams that started with home court advantage find themselves trying to just salvage a split. Let’s take a look at what the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs can do to avoid going down 0-2 on their home floors.

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
You have to give Derrick Rose huge ups for what he accomplished this past Saturday. To put up those kinds of numbers, against a team known for its defense is ridiculous. He literally went toe-to-toe with Rajon Rondo, who is a great defender, and put up 36 points and 11 assists to lead the Bulls to the opening victory in this series.

But don’t expect that to continue—at least not the Bulls winning part. While Rose may very well step up and have another big game, it’s unlikely that both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will be as inefficient as they were last Saturday. Neither one of them had their shot going, with Allen going 1 of 10 for the game. Expect those shooting numbers to improve, because they can’t get much worse.

However, the difference in this game is going to be on the defensive end for the Celtics. Expect them to do their best to shut down Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon. They really don’t have an answer for Rose, but those two are streaky players who they can limit if they need to. So when Gordon is rolling off screens and picks, expect the Celtics to run him off the 3-point shot or make him pass the ball, so that he can’t have a repeat performance of Saturday’s game. As for Thomas, the Celtics simply have to respect his ability to make the outside shot. He killed them with his medium-range jumper in Game 1, so now the Celtics will have to step out and make him put the ball on the floor.

It’s a simple formula. If the Celtics want to win tonight, they need to play defense. The offense should come, as Chicago did not show much resistance in Game 1. However, the defensive effort from the Celtics has to reemerge in Game 2 if the Celtics want to salvage a split before the series shifts to Chicago.

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Oh how the mighty have fallen! The Spurs are down 0-1 to the Mavericks, a team that they have routinely beaten over the past decade. And if the Spurs want any chance at winning this series, they have to get more from Tim Duncan.

Sure, 19 points and 15 rebounds is good for just about any big man in the NBA. In fact, I think it’s hard to find a big man in the league who we would criticize for putting up those kinds of numbers. But Tim Duncan is not one of those big men. He has to give the Spurs more than that on offense. Sure, he showed up late in the game when the team was struggling, however, he can’t afford to sit back for 20 or 25 minutes a game and take over late in games. He could afford to do that when Manu was in there putting up 25 points a game, but with him out, Duncan has to be more committed to his offense and less committed to spreading the ball around.

As for the rest of the Spurs, it’s really important that they stop Jason Terry on defense. Unfortunately, the Spurs really don’t have anyone that can defend him. But they’ll have to find someone to do it, because if Terry is going to average 29 points and 6 assists for the rest of this series, it’s not going to be a very long series.

At the end of the day, the Mavericks are going to beat the Spurs in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki has always been a problem for the Spurs, and with both Terry and Josh Howard playing at this level, the Spurs have no counter for the type of production the Mavs are getting from their wing players.

The post "NBA Playoffs Preview: April 20, 2009" was originally published at TSW.

The Bulls pulled off what most would consider a miracle. Despite the Boston Celtics being without Kevin Garnett, many people thought that with homecourt advantage, they would do away with the Bulls in 5 games—6 games at most. Well, Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls had something to say about that. In Game 1 of their series with the Boston Celtics, the Bulls pulled of the upset win in overtime by a score of 105-103.

The Bulls had no answer for Rajon Rondo. In Kevin Garnett’s absence, Rondo stepped up with the best playoff performance of his young career. He had an electrifying 29 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists. Unfortunately for the Celtics, he was the only player on Boston who was at least decently efficient. Pierce scored 23 points, but that was off 8 of 21 shooting from the field. And Ray Allen only managed 4 points, making just 1 of his 12 field goal attempts, including going 0 of 6 from three-point land. But while the Bulls had no answer for Rondo, the Celtics had no answer for Rose.

Rose went for 36 points, 11 assists, and 4 rebounds. His 36 points in his first playoff game tied a playoff record for rookies. That means his first playoff game as a rookie was better than Tim Duncan’s 32, Wilt Chamberlain’s 35 and it tied Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s 36. That’s the kind of company Rose is now in.

However, he was more than just a numbers producer in this game. He was a fearless finisher. Everytime the Celtics got close, tied it up, or pulled ahead, Rose made a big play, usually by willing his way to the rim and finishing over whoever was in his way. He made several big buckets down the stretch, and his free-throw shooting was also instrumental, as he shook off the effects of last year’s NCAA Championship woes, making all 12 of his free throw attempts.

As good as Rose was, the Bulls needed more than him to beat the defending NBA champions on their homecourt, and he got all the help he needed. Ben Gordon, despite having a slow start, finished with 20 points and scored 12 points in the 4th quarter. And Tyrus Thomas hit big shot after big shot in the 4th quarter and overtime. He truly showed his range, hitting jumps from all over the court, until he eventually shot Celtics to their first loss of the playoffs.

Now the Bulls are dealt the unenviable hand of dealing with a Celtics team with revenge on their mind. One has to wonder though, just how many players in the Boston locker room are thinking about the absence of Kevin Garnett and whether or not they can win a game without him. I guess we’ll get the answer in Game 2, when these two teams face off on Monday. But for now, the Bulls hold a 1-0 advantage and are looking like a young team on a mission.

The post "NBA Playoffs: Bulls Take Game 1 from Celtics in Overtime, 105-103" was originally published at TSW.

I respect the Boston Celtics a whole lot. As many of you remember, I was really down on them throughout last year, but in the end, they proved me wrong. They were indeed the best team in the NBA last year. But that ain’t the case this year, and the NBA Playoffs will prove me right.

The Boston Celtics definitely are not the defensive team they were last year. Now the numbers would be misleading, because Kevin Garnett has not played most of the season. However, even with a healthy KG, they won’t be the same without a P.J. Brown in the post or a James Posey on the wing. The absence of those two puts this team’s defensive stronghold on the back-burner.

Offensively, sure, they could overcome a healthy Kevin Garnett. But if KG is not going to be 100%, then Ray Allen can’t do what he did in the first 2.5 rounds of last year, which was not show up. Allen was virtually useless for the first 17 playoff games of Boston’s 2008 NBA Finals run. If he gets off to a slow start this year, without KG capable of being a go-to guy, there is no way they can be effective offensively.

Of course, some may disagree with me on that point, pointing to Rajon Rondo’s offensive growth this season. However, I don’t really see Rondo making that much of a difference on the offensive end—at least not as a scorer. Rondo has definitely become more of playmaking threat, but if the Celtics are going to be dependent on his 31% mark from three-point land or his 65% free-throw shooting, they are going to be in for a very short playoff trip.

So what’s my take on the Celtics? Even without KG, they should beat the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a close series. Afterall, Philadelphia and Chicago are very good and explosive teams, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t give the Celtics a fight—albeit, one that the Celtics would ultimately win. That being said, the Celtics are very vulnerable in the next two rounds. In the 2nd round, where they are likely to face Orlando, I foresee a tight series. Orlando got the better of the Celtics on 2 out of 4 chances this season, so they have the confidence to beat them. And if the usually spirited KG is not himself, Orlando’s self-assurance might be enough to undo the Celtics.

But let’s assume they get by the Magic. There is no way I can predict them beating the Cavs. The way Cleveland is playing, and given the way they played Boston last year, I don’t see how they could go down to a team that won’t be as strong as they were last year.

Ultimately, my prediction is that Boston will fizzle out against Cleveland, probably going down 4 games to 2. A healthy KG might change my mind on that, but all signs point to him not being 100% in this year’s playoffs.

The post "NBA Playoffs Prediction: Boston Celtics Won’t Return to NBA Finals" was originally published at TSW.

Look at this picture to the left. Is that not the depiction of a man who looks excited to play basketball?

In Stephon Marbury’s first action since January of 2008, he finished with 8 points and 2 assists in his debut with the Boston Celtics. He made 4 of his 6 field goal attempts, including his first jumper of the game. But his most important stat of the day: 0 confrontations with anyone on his own team.

The Marbury era in New York is over, but it is in full swing in Boston. Actually, you can’t even really call it a “Marbury era” in Boston, as he is merely a bench player; a bench player who recorded only 13 minutes and plays behind a budding young point guard in Rajon Rondo.

However, even though it cannot be considered the Marbury era, it is the dawn of a new day in the NBA. It is a day when Marbury actually had a podium interview (for the first time since 2004 at the Olympics) and got a standing ovation from the home crowd for the first time probably since he was introduced as a Knick at Madison Square Garden.

Marbury responded to the round of applause incredibly well. He had a exceedingly productive outing for just 13 minutes of effort, and he looked just as smooth and crisp with the ball as he has ever been. There was no sluggishness or apparent signs of nervousness. He was inexplicably blown by on defense once, but he was known to have let that happened when he was at the height of his career.

But like I mentioned before, this game wasn’t good for Marbury because of his performance, it was his attitude that impressed most. For someone who seemed more willing to collect a check than play basketball, he was very excited to be back on an NBA court for the first time in over a year. He was animated at the opening of the game and was lively when he went in it. He actually gave a member of the audience a high-five, something I do not recall him doing once over his last year or two in New York City.

He was legitimately excited about playing basketball.

Not eager about a return to his hometown.

Not wound-up about playing for his mentor in Isiah Thomas.

Not overjoyed about a new contract, new teammate or new offensive system.

No, for the first time in probably a long time, he was just excited about playing basketball. And it showed. And hopefully for the Celtics, it will show throughout the rest of the season, which could be an awfully scary notion for the rest of the NBA.

The post "Marbury’s Boston Debut is Quite the Success" was originally published at TSW.

It’s a simple question that many people have asked me about today:

Does the Ron Artest trade make the Boston Celtics trio the 2nd best trio of players in the NBA?

The answer— well, that’s no so easy.

However, you have known me to shy away from difficult questions, so I’ll give you the difficult answer:

The combination of Ron Artest, Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming is better than the combination of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.

Now, I know a lot of you are up and arms after reading that statement, but it is true. You just have to let the bias of last season leave your mind, and come to terms with bare naked truth, which is, if you were to pick the best 4 players out of the six, you would come up with 3 Rockets and 1 Celtic.

Kevin Garnett is a great player, and even at his advanced age, I can see someone telling me that he is better than the Yao Ming. Now if you asked the Rockets would they trade Yao for Garnett straight up, they would tell you where to shove it. But I guess Danny Ainge might say the same thing if the Rockets offered him Yao for KG. But I would argue that any objective general manager in the league would take a healthy Yao Ming, at this point in his career, over KG. Yes, some of it has to do with age, but irregardless of that issue, Yao brings a post presence that KG does not, and that is a lot more valuable than what KG does on offense. Now, don’t go crazy, I already said that I wouldn’t pick a fight with anyone who said KG is better than Yao; afterall, KG was an MVP candidate this year. However, a low-post presence is very, very, valuable, and KG doesn’t bring that.

So let’s say we give the Celtics that match up anyway. You move down the line and ask yourself, “Who is better?” T-Mac or Paul Pierce. And then you slap yourself back into reality and realize that this is a stupid question. Of course, T-Mac is better. He is way better. You’re talking about a guy who has comparable offensive talent to that of Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. And while ranking him about Pierce may contradict my latest NBA Top 5 list, you have to understand that I was just throwing Pierce the respect he deserves for winning Finals MVP.

However, would I have taken him over Tracy McGrady before last year’s playoffs?

Of course not. And I’d have a hard time doing it right now, too.

Lastly, “Is Ron Artest better than Ray Allen?” In Ray Allen’s prime, this is a much more difficult question. Ray Allen was a big time scorer and Seattle. Allen was a big time slasher and dunker in Milwaukee. But in Boston, he is an outside shooter, who proved to be very streaky in the playoffs, and didn’t warrant much value when he was on defense. So, right now, as we speak, Ron Artest is definitely better than Allen. Heck, he is better than Pierce in my opinion.

Thus, there you have it. At worst, the Rockets win 2 out of the 3 matchups, and at best, it’s a clean sweep.

Don’t get me wrong though, I understand, the Boston Celtics bought into a system up there in Beantown, and the type of team-defense and cohesiveness they exhibited all season long is extremely hard to replicate. Which is why if you were to ask me who would win if these two teams squared off in the NBA Finals tomorrow, I would tell you it’s the Celtics in a heartbeat.

However, if you were to ask me which of these trios would win if I had no prior knowledge of what happened last season, I’m in favor of the boys from H-Town 100%.

The post "Who Would You Take…The Celtics Trio or the Rockets Trio…?" was originally published at TSW.