Prior to the 2010-2011 NBA Basketball season, Carlos Boozer went on a strong campaign to get out the message that he is one of the best power forwards in the game. He was asked many times about where he thought he ranked among today’s best four-men. I even heard him on a New York radio station claiming that he was better than David Lee.

I didn’t argue with him when he said it, but I might be inclined to argue with him after the paltry, injury-plagued season he put before us during the last six months. Then again, David Lee is no longer playing, so let’s compare Boozer to the other premiere power forward still in the playoffs, Chris Bosh.

First, let’s look at the regular season.

While in Boozer’s defense, he did have to deal with some injuries, I have to take him for what he is. Boozer is fast-approaching 30, has always been injury-riddled, and quite frankly, he’s known for that. So while I want to give you that tid-bit of information as you look at the statistics, I must say, I could care less how Boozer’s injury may have affected his play.

There’s almost little questioning that Boozer was the better rebounder this season. Boozer pulled in 23% of all defensive rebounds this season, while Bosh pulled in just 20%, and overall, Boozer pulled in 17% of all rebounds, while Bosh pulled in just 13. In addition, Boozer is the more consistent rebounder. In 77 starts, Bosh had 28 double-doubles, and Boozer had 30 double-doubles in just 59 starters.

Unfortunately for Boozer, rebounding is about his only edge against Chris Bosh.

Per game, Boozer was giving the Chicago Bulls 17.5 points per game during the regular season. Bosh, who is the third wheel for the Miami Heat, scored nearly 19 points per game. From the floor, Boozer was more efficient at producing points whenever he shot the basketball, however, when you factor in free throws using true-shooting percentage, Boozer was the more efficient shooting power forward.

As for the intangibles, Boozer had a better assist ratio, but Bosh was a better shot blocker, thief and caretaker of the ball this past NBA regular season.

Now on to the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

While we are still miles away from the Bulls and Heat facing off in the Eastern Conference Finals, it’s possible that these two guys, who essentially battled for money this past summer, will square off. And if you look at the playoff stats as they stand now, Bosh will dominate Chris Bosh.

To put it simply, in six games, Carlos Boozer has looked like boo-boo. He is averaging just 10.7 points per game on 39% shooting from the field. He has been to the line just an average of 2 times per game. He has had on only double-double, while averaging less than 10 rebounds per game (albeit, he only played 15 minutes in route of the Indiana Pacers in Game 5 last series). Last but not least, he played five of his games against Tyler Hansbrough, a player making considerably less money than him, and he was outperformed night-in and night out.

As for Bosh—well, let’s just say LeBron James made the right “decision.” In the playoffs, Bosh is averaging 17.7 points per game on 46% shooting. He’s getting to the free throw line at twice the clip of Carlos Boozer. In addition, Bosh has surprisingly showed up on defense, as exhibited by his great play against Indiana and his impending matchup against Joakim Noah.

I could get deeper into the analysis of these two guys. For starters:

1. Boozer’s PER of 10.1 is worse than that of Thaddeus Young, Carl Landry and Marcus Camby
2. Bosh has a top 10 PER among all power-forwards this postseason
3. Bush’s true-shooting percentage has been almost 14-points higher than that of Boozer’s, and with the kind of shot selection Boozer is taking, I hope to keep it that way.

Sorry, Boozer, these numbers just don’t add up for a guy who demanded a premium dollar last off-season. You’re supposed to be the best big man on the floor when you step out of the lockerrom. Get’er done Boozer, or else I will continue to call you out!

The post "Call Out: Carlos Boozer, Stand Up!" was originally published at TSW.

Sunday afternoon failed to produce the same results the Boston Celtics had experienced the previous two Sundays. In their series with the New York Knicks, the Celtics had a nice comeback victory two Sundays ago, and last week, the Celtics closed the Knicks out in convincing fashion.

But this Sunday was different. This Sunday was the start of a new series, one that we have all been waiting for. Sunday was Game 1 of the Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat series, the one we have dreamed about since LeBron James made his “decision” last July. Game 1 certainly provided exciting plays, physical play, intense defense, intense emotions, and otherwise, great NBA playoff emotion. Unfortunately, it did not produce a great game, and Miami won 99-90.

For much of the game, the Miami Heat dominated the Celtics. After averaging just 13 points against the Celtics in their four previous meetings during the regular season, Dwyane Wade put up 38 points on just 21 shots against a Celtics defense that often holds high-scoring wing players to incredibly inefficient performances. Team-wise, the Heat led the Celtics by as much as 19 points in the third quarter. The Celtics made some runs here and there, and even got the lead down to 8 late in the fourth quarter after Paul Pierce had been tossed out of the game with his second technical foul. But in actuality, the Heat were never in danger of losing this game.

So why did the Heat prevail?

In what is sure to be one of the most scrutinized Round 2, Game 1’s in the history of the NBA Playoffs, here are three reasons why Miami won this game, and will likely go on to win this series.

#1. Dwyane Wade was unstoppable.
As I mentioned in our “Heat-Celtics” keys to victory post, Wade has to show up in order for the Heat to win this series. Now, 38 points in the series opener is certainly one way to do that. But in addition to that, Wade played “better” defense against Ray Allen, who despite scoring 25 points on just 13 shots, was at least pushed off the three-point line by Wade more often than he had been in their previous meetings. It’s unlikely that Wade’s jump shot will be as accurate as it was this game for the remainder of this series. However, if he keeps playing defense like he did, he can possibly minimize the damage that Ray inflicts upon the Heat.

#2. Where the hell was Kevin Garnett?
Listen, everyone is destined for a bad night, but Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs is not a time to play so below your averages that I don’t even recognize you. The Celtics started the game giving the ball to Kevin Garnett in the post. Garnett has the best matchup, scoring-wise, as Bosh shouldn’t be able to guard him down on the block—or at least hasn’t done so in the past. Yet, with Bosh on him for most of the game, Garnett was held to just 3 for 9 shooting, 6 points and 8 rebounds. Garnett did not get to the free throw line once, and for 37 minutes of play, Garnett looked like somebody else. Granted, he did do a pretty stellar job on defense, subsequently holding Chris Bosh to just 7 points on 3 for 10 shooting. But the Celtics can’t win this series if Garnett isn’t better than Bosh. We already know that the Heat have the best two players on the court. But if Miami winds up 3 of the best 5 performances in this series, it’s lights out for Boston.

#3. Paul Pierce can’t get abused…or thrown out of the game!
Maybe I wasn’t clear with my keys to victory. When I said that Paul Pierce couldn’t afford to get abused by LeBron James in this series, I didn’t mean he could just not play and get tossed out of the game. And while I wholeheartedly disagree with the referee’s decision to give Pierce a second technical foul (one the NBA says was given for taunting), Pierce never should have gotten that first technical—so I don’t exactly feel all that sorry for him. Before he got thrown off the court though, Pierce wasn’t spectacular. He had hit a couple of jumpers just before leaving, but he was a mere 6 of 14 for 19 points, had 4 turnovers and let LeBron play an extremely efficient game. Now that I’m sure my statements no longer need further explanation, the Boston Celtics are far more likely to win this series if Paul Pierce is on the basketball court.

The post "Heat Romp Celtics; The Hungry Take Game 1" was originally published at TSW.

The Eastern Conference has been full of surprises this year, which makes our 2011 NBA Playoff Predictions all that much harder to make.

So what have been some of the surprises?

For starters, the Chicago Bulls are the best team in the Eastern Conference; nobody saw that being the case after all the events that took place this summer. Then how about the Orland Magic being a middling four-seed? Yes, they won 50 games, but their inclusion as one of the elite teams in the NBA seems to have expired. And then there are the Philadelphia 76ers. This team was left for dead entering the season and even a few weeks into it. Now they have been one of the best teams in the East since the All-Star break and could be well on their way to making some playoff noise.

So what is our prediction for how this year’s NBA Playoffs will play out? Let’s get to it, round by round.

First Round Predictions:

Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
These two teams are about as unevenly matched as possible. The Bulls dominate the Pacers at every position except for one, small forward, where Danny Granger has a decided advantage over Luol Deng. And while I’m sure the Bulls can overcome that with Derrick Rose’s advantage over the Pacers point guards, it will be a much easier series if Deng can step up and counter Granger. But even if he doesn’t, Bulls still win. Our prediction is that Bulls close this out in 5, 4-1.

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Last year, these two teams were the #2 and #3 seeds playing each other a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. This year, they are both middling #4 and #5 seeds that are expected to get thumped in the second round. While many may have the Magic winning this series in easy fashion, the four regular season series games between these two teams suggest otherwise. The Hawks have taken three out of four from the Magic, with a couple of easy wins. And while Dwight Howard is the best player on the court, the Hawks may have the next three or four best players. That said, I’m going to go with the numbers, which show that the Magic have an average point differentia of plus-5.3, while the Hawks have a point differential of minus-0.6. Statistically speaking, this series shouldn’t even be close, so I’ll go against what I’ve seen and let the numbers take hold of my prediction. Orlando wins, 4-1.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
This match isn’t set in stone as April 11, 2011, however, we don’t think the Heat will lose for the rest of the season, and the New York Knicks have a tiebreaker over Philly. But I digress. The Heat are just better than the 76ers at their own game. Both teams like to run and both teams play great perimeter defense. But at the end of the day, the Heat have Dwyane Wade and LeBron James running, while the 76ers have Andre Igoudala. See what I’m saying? Heat win, 4-1.

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
This is a tough one for me since, admittedly, I am a New York Knicks fan. And as I write this, knowing that the Celtics and Knicks play on Wednesday, on the last game of the season, I’m not afraid to say that the Knicks can play with these Celtics. They can’t play with the same Celtics that were in first place going into the All-Star break. But they can play with the Celtics. Especially since over their last 20 games, the Celtics scoring margin is a mere plus-1.55, while over the Knicks last 20 games, their scoring margin is plus-2.45. On top of that, the Celtics lone “big” man is Jermaine O’Neal, and if Shaquille O’Neal isn’t back for the postseason, the Knicks could dominate inside with Amare Stoudemire. Don’t get it twisted though; I’m not going to go pick the underachieving Knicks to win this series. I’m just saying, that if they did play up their abilities, and the Celtics play like that have over the last 20 games, the Knicks could win this series. But they won’t. Celtics win, 4-3.

Second Round Predictions:

Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic
The best thing about this series is that we have a complete clashing of styles. The Bulls like to slow the pace and get to the basket, while the Magic like to run and shoot threes. On top of that, their offensive styles are in complete contrast with their best players. Rose would be better in perimeter game the Magic offer, while Howard is better suited for the motion offense the Bulls like to run. As a result, I have no idea what these games are going to look like, other than the fact that they will look awesome! Because I don’t know what how the demeanor of the NBA Playoffs will affect the style of this game, again I’m going to lean on the numbers that say the Bulls have been much better in their last 20 games than the Magic have. So Bulls win, 4-2.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Everybody wants to say that losing Kendrick Perkins will costs the Celtics this series. I don’t see it that way, especially since the Celtics didn’t even have Perkins win they were winning the majority of those game. Again, I will point to Shaquille O’Neal, who has the third best adjusted plus/minus on the Celtics team. For me, it’s pretty simple. If Shaq plays, the Big three can do their thing on the perimeter and win this series. If he doesn’t, the Big Three will have a hard time stopping the Heat’s Big Three from getting into the paint and doing their thing. It’s been a long time since a team could rely on Shaquille O’Neal, so I’m going with the Heat in this one. Miami wins, 4-3.

Eastern Conference Finals

Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat
As you all know, the Miami Heat have lost to the Chicago Bulls three times. However, they have lost by a combined total of less than 8 points, and all of the games have come down to the last two are three possessions. Now, it is quite possible that the Heat are bad in close game situations. Yes, I am a firm believer in the fact that winning 5-point games is not a matter of skill, but one of luck. However, if I flip a coin 20 times, and I only get heads three times, I’m going to start to question the validity of that coin. And with the Heat’s close game record being less than optimal, I have to believe that their stagnation at the end of games is causing them to lose the close contests, and I haven’t seen any signs of them fixing that problem. However, I don’t like the Bulls late-game strategy either. As good as Rose has been, he is not the MVP, and he is not that good late in games. In fact, he shoots just 39% down the stretch of close games, and he turns the ball over way more than an MVP point guard should in that situation.

What bodes in Miami’s favor is the fact that we have yet to see them nearly at their best. Currently, the Three Kings average about 35 minutes a piece. However, when the Heat reach the 2011 NBA Playoffs, you can be assured that they will average about 40 minutes per game. That’s a very significant increase, especially when you consider the players they are replacing. Forty minutes a game means guys like Juwan Howard, Joel Anthony, James Jones and Mike Bibby can spend more time on the bench. Bringing in LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade for those games will increase the team’s efficiency tremendously. Thus, I like the Miami Heat to win the Eastern Conference Finals over the Chicago Bulls, 4-2.

The post "NBA Playoff Predictions: Eastern Conference" was originally published at TSW.

The 2011 NBA MVP race has more hot air than the space Rose clears on this dunk.

In this MVP Race for 2011, the consensus appears to be that Derrick Rose is the game’s Most Valuable Player. Unfortunately, every statistic in the world disputes that notion. And for those of you who don’t want to hear about the stats, then I’ve have an alternative argument for you later in this article.

But first, the numbers!

Something is wrong with the NBA, when a player can win Eastern Conference Player of the Month, in the all too important month of March, when he shoots a meager 41.6% from the field and makes only 29.6% of his three-pointers while shooting 6.1 threes per game. Well, that’s what Derrick Rose accomplished in March, and yet, the writers, who appear destined to give the MVP to Rose for the mere fact that they have either been bored or disdained by LeBron James.

It’s quite the amazing phenomenon.

Beyond his March numbers though, Rose just isn’t the best player in the NBA, and he’s not even the best player this season. Yes, his team appears to have been the best team in the Eastern Conference this year, but the NBA MVP Race shouldn’t be about what a player’s team is doing, but about what a player is doing for his team. And that’s what’s being ignored by anybody who says that Derrick Rose deserves the MVP.

The numbers clearly show that LeBron James is the better player. LeBron is averaging better than 26, 7 and 7. Derrick Rose is averaging 25, 8 and 4. Advantage: LeBron, albeit not a deafening advantage, but still an advantage for the two-time MVP. Of course, LeBron is playing a minute more per than Rose, so maybe there’s something there that tilts things back Rose’s way?

Not so fast my friend!

Using the Player Efficiency Rating (PER), which accounts for time spent on the court, LeBron James is the most efficient player in the NBA. He has a much higher true-shooting percentage than Rose. He gets less than 2 percentage points fewer assists per possession than Rose. And LeBron rebounds significantly better than him.

Of course, you can also throw Dwight Howard into the mix. Howard’s is averaging 23, 1, 14 and 2 blocks per game. He has the second highest PER in the NBA. In fact, you can go ahead and put Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant and even Kevin Love ahead of the Rose train when it comes to pure numbers.

As for some more numbers that destroy the arguments of Rose supporters, how about Rose’s “value” to the team? Everybody has this crazy notion that just because we use the term “Most Valuable Player,” that somehow we really want to give the award to a player that gives his team the most value! It’s ridiculous. When that term was “created,” everybody knows that it was intended to go to the best player in the NBA. However, being the contrarians that we are, people have now dubbed this award to mean most valuable to a team, or most valuable to an offense, or most valuable to an offense on a defensive team in first place. The meaning of value has become so convoluted, that I don’t even know what people mean by it any more.

However, if you want to look at “value” intrinsically, here are some stats for your ass. Basketballvalue.com uses a metric called “adjusted plus/minus.” I’m sure you are familiar with the fact that plus/minus measures the scoring margin of a player when he is on the floor. Well, adjusted plus/minus metric simply accounts for the players that said player is on the court with, because obviously, one’s scoring margin on the court is severely altered by the players on the court with him.

When you apply these stats to the top MVP candidates, we see that Dwight Howard has APM (adjusted plus/minus) of 12.99. LeBron James has an APM of 9.76. And the MVP Race favorite, Derrick Rose, has an APM of 8.51. However, none of these guys are tops in the league. Chris Paul actually leads the league with an APM of 17.61, and LaMarcus Aldridge has an APM of 16.29. What do these numbers tell us? Well, they certainly allow us to see which players are affecting their teams most, albeit, not a perfect measurement since regression models are needed to account for other players on the court, some players always play with other players, and sample sizes bigger than one season are needed to limit the standard era. Nonetheless, it’s a good way to look at things to see a good measurement of a player’s value, and in this case, Rose, who ranks 20th on this list, does not appear to be the most valuable player in this “value” statistic.

Okay, but you’re tired of the numbers, right? All you know is that Derrick Rose is the best player on the best team in the Eastern Conference. What you know is that Rose, who is player with far less talent around him than LeBron James is, has a better record than the Big Three, the Big Four and Big Man down in Orlando. Certainly, I can’t argue with that logic, and there is something to be said for it.

But I post to you two points.

First, Chicago is not a good offensive team. They rank 13th in offensive efficiency, the indisputable measurement of how good a team is offensively. That 13th ranking puts them behind Golden State, Houston and the lowly Phoenix Suns. But isn’t Rose supposed to be the engine on the Chicago Bulls offense? What’s happening there when the league’s MVP has a mediocre offense and yet they have the best team in the East?

I’ll tell you what’s happening. The Bulls are winning games on defense! The Bulls, by measure of the undisputed defensive efficiency rating, are the best defensive team in the NBA. Oh but wait, doesn’t Rose suck at defense? Yes, he does! In fact, the Bulls are exactly 8 points worse per 100 possessions on defense when Rose is on the court compared to when is off it. Now, some of that has to do with the fact that Rose sits out during garbage time and yada, yada, yada. But if you want to go there, than let’s compare him to other players that have been a part of there fair share of blowouts, like LeBron and Howard, who’s teams are defensively more efficient with them on the court.

Thus, for all that credit you’re giving Rose for “leading” the Bulls, he’s probably the worse defender on a team that wins based on its defense. I don’t know about you, but such a notion does not connote value in my mind.

Last but not least on this Derrick Rose trashing campaign is the fact that Rose can be replaced. For all of this “value” he allegedly has, how many players can I replace Rose with and still have a great Bulls team, if not a better one? Obviously, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and even an aging Steve Nash could fill the roll. AS for some candidates that aren’t even the most important players on their teams, both Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook would keep the Bulls just as good as they are now if they replaced Rose. And to add fuel to the fire, Tony Parker, Stephen Curry and even Ramon Sessions have high enough True-Shooting Percentages and Assists ratios that suggest that they could make the Bulls offense better than it is now, and as we know, Rose’s defense isn’t anything to live up to.

As for LeBron and Howard, who are you going to replace them with? Not a soul. Not a soul. Which is why I’m okay with giving the award to either one of those guys, but the notion of giving it to Rose is quite ridiculous. Yes, he’s a great player. Maybe even a Top 10 player. But he’s not even the best player at his position. He’s just on a really good team that plays really good defense. He can shine on offense, because everyone around him offensively is only slightly above average. Put him on the Heat, and his abilities would take a backseat. Put him on a team that needs defense, and they’d be even worse.

Sorry, I love, Rose, even though it doesn’t sound like it. But he’s not the best player in the NBA, and statistically, he fails to qualify as the most “valuable” player, too. If you want to give him the award because it sounds nice, then you’re voting on a story, not a player. And if that’s how you want to vote, writers, then in the words of Dennis Green, “go ahead and crown’em.”

The post "MVP Race 2011: Is Derrick Rose Basketball’s Best?" was originally published at TSW.

The Miami Heat finally got back on track. After beating the Los Angeles Lakers in a hard-fought basketball game, the Heat followed that up with the utter destruction of the late-surging Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday. However, the Heat’s gain was the Lakers loss. And Kobe Bryant was not happy about it.

After the game on Thursday, Kobe “Bean” Bryant had a post-game shoot-around—by himself!

That’s right! A 14-year veteran, 32-year old, 13-time all-star had a post game shoot-around by himself, after he loss to the Miami Heat on national television. Kobe said it was the first time he had a post-game shoot-around in 7 years, but that the agony of that defeat affected him so immensely that he immediately had to improve upon his game.

Of course, any intelligent person will tell you that a post-game shoot-around won’t do much for Kobe Bryant. First of all, he’s 32-years old; thus, his body was far too tired to truly handle a productive shoot-around after playing a game that went right down to the wire.

Secondly, Kobe has been in the NBA for 14 years and hadn’t found the need to have a post-game shoot-around in the last seven seasons. You know why? Because there isn’t much he can do to improve his shot at this point in his life—especially not when he’s entering the shoot-around with a body that was clearly fatigued throughout the entire fourth quarter of that game.

Lastly, what good does shooting by himself do him at this point in the season? Let’s face it, Kobe gets enough personal workout time in during the day, and he surely gets plenty of shots up during a game. There’s nothing Kobe can do in a gym by himself and after a game that’s going to make the Lakers better. If he wants to do that, he should have had all of the Lakers out their taking shots and improving their games. While the loss to Miami was in part a result of Kobe’s poor night, if he had some better interior help, we would have seen the Lakers win that game.

Then again, Kobe knows that. You know how I know Kobe knows that? Because anybody you talk to who is close with Kobe Bryant will tell you that Kobe is one of the most calculating individuals in NBA basketball history. Kobe doesn’t do anything without thinking about the outcome, consequences and prospects of a single, public act. Ever since the rape charges against him, Kobe’s public persona has been as manicured as women’s nails. And there are instances that attest to that. From getting Shaq out of LA but not saying anything about it, to new grimace-look he developed a couple of postseasons ago, Kobe makes his mark on the public what he wants it to be, including arranging sit down dinners with reporters when he was trying to get his image back in line.

So what’s the motivation behind a post-game shoot-around? That’s simple. He wanted to change the narrative around the very game that he just lost.

If Kobe is one thing, it’s prideful. The man doesn’t like being outscored, and he hates taking a backseat to anyone, even if they are on his team (i.e. Phil Jackson, Shaquille O’Neal). You can only imagine how mad it makes him that this whole experiment in Miami is forcing him and his team to take a backseat to LeBron James and the Heat. And to lost to them on national television? Oh no! Kobe wasn’t having it.

So in a move to make the story about him and to “defend his honor,” Kobe went back on to the court, after the game, and took shots. Mind you, he didn’t do this after his basketball ego should have been shook in Cleveland when the Cavaliers put a whooping’ on him. Instead, Kobe saved his post-game antics for Miami, when TNT and ESPN were in the house and every basketball fan in America was watching.

How convenient.

Listen, Kobe is a great basketball player, but the next person to tell me he is a great guy is worthy of having his own bubble popped. Kobe has a problem with being second fiddle. But it’s one thing to be mad about Miami taking precedence over his last 2 NBA championships, but it’s another to try and steal attention away from somebody after you severely got outplayed by Dwyane Wade on the court. Kobe’s decision to go shoot around after the game like a young Jesus Shuttlesworth trying to get picked up by a top-flight Division I program is foolish. Kobe needs to be a man about his loss, and go back to his locker room and cry about it. Just like the Miami Heat would have done.

The post "Kobe Bryant Doing Work…After the Game" was originally published at TSW.

I would love to sit here and tell you how bad the Miami Heat are. As happy as I was to see the spectacle of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh do what they did last summer, like most of America, I too joined the collective groan as I realized how unappetizing it would become to listen to these three guys try to boost their egos—even if in the process they gave up stats, money and adoration to do so.

And as much as I would love to see the first season of this experiment come crashing to a sobering end in the playoffs, the chances of that are extremely unlikely.

To put it simply, the Miami Heat’s recent losing streak has not show too many flaws that one can say are truly representative of what the Miami Heat are capable of doing. For example, much of Heat’s losing has had to do with their opponents’ three point-shooting. Miami’s opponents are hitting 43.2% of their threes during Miami’s five-game losing streak. To put that in perspective, the best three-point shooting team in the league, the San Antonio Spurs, shoots 40.1% from behind the arc. This means that collectively, the Heat have seen three-point shooting that is almost 7.7% better than the NBA’s best, and is 22% better than the median NBA team.

That, my friend, is unlucky.

Of course, some of you will say it’s the Heat’s defense, but that’s entirely unfair, given that the Heat are one of the five best teams in the league defensively, and even with the last five losses included, the Heat are the 7th best team in the NBA at defending the three-point line. That just stresses how much luck goes into defending the three-pointer, because at the end of the day, good NBA players can always get off a good jumper unless you crowd them to point of sacrificing the drive. Essentially, defending the three comes down to whether or not the other team is making them, and if they are and they keep shooting it, ala the Orlando Magic comeback last Thursday, there’s not TOO much an NBA team, even as good as the Heat, can do about it.

But don’t worry, Heat fans, the luck will run out, and teams rarely shoot as many threes in the post-season as they do in the regular season anyway. I don’t like saying things like the stats will come back to their statistical mean, because people who say that, rarely ever admit when that doesn’t happen, and as a stat guy, it happens a lot more than most stat guys would like to suggest.

Another thing that can solace Heat fans is this whole 1-18 shooting by Miami when they are tied or down by 1-3 points with 30 seconds left in the game. I could make those Larry Bird shots from the McDonald’s commercials at a better rate than 1 for 18, so that stat is just a tremendous outlier. If you think LeBron James driving to the rim against Carmelo Anthony or Joakim Noah is a 1 for 18 proposition, you’re only kidding yourself.

Now a smart basketball fan might suggests that the 1 for 18 is more indicative of a stagnant, late-game offense, and the defense’s ability to hone in on LeBron James on the final play of the game. That no doubt has contributed to that woeful percentage, but it still shouldn’t be this bad. Over the last five years, LeBron James, by just about every statistical measure out there, is among the leaders in clutch stats. (I won’t even give you the stats myself, because for most people, if you don’t seem them for yourself, you won’t believe them. Well, the stats are at 82games.com, and I dare you to find any measurement of clutch and come back with one that does not have LeBron ranked among the Top 10.) How did LeBron achieve this high-level of late-game performance?

Well, as the 1 for 18 mark connotes, he didn’t do it in Miami, where he has a lot of help. Instead, those stats were achieved in Cleveland, where the players around him were worse, but the plays were the same. In Cleveland, LeBron did the same thing in the clutch. He backed the ball out to basically half-court and he took his player one-on-one. He’s doing the same thing in Miami with better players around him, and it just hasn’t worked out yet. I am in no means a LeBron apologist, but in the examples noted above (the drives against Carmelo and Joakim), one could argue LeBron was fouled, but of course, another might argue that LeBron just choked. Either way, this same method has proven to work for LeBron in the past, which is why I think it will work for him again in the future. Now, the Heat could help him by having a little more backside movement on the play so guys like Amare Stoudemire can’t swoop over and block the shot, but perhaps neither Miami fans or Miami haters believe Coach Erik Spoelstra can make that happen.

However, to that point, even if LeBron delivers more often, it does appear that the Heat are not that capable at winning close games. With a record of 5-13 in games decided by 5 points or less, we can statistically reject the notion that the Heat have a 50% chance of winning close games, which is the general hypothesis made by basketball sabermetricians. In fact, it is even more likely that the Heat are no better than a 39% winning team in close situations.

Still, Heat fans need not worry. Even if the Heat win close games at 39% clip, it should not affect their chances to win the playoffs too much. All of their playoff games won’t be decided that few points, and if they win 40% of the ones that are, their chances of winning a given playoff series aren’t much worse than they are if the Heat had a 50% chance of winning those games.

So buck up, Miami! It’s been a while since you had a team to root for, so jump off the bandwagon now! Your team may have failed you as of late, but the numbers and history show that none of this means they will fail you later in the NBA Playoffs.

The post "Miami Heat’s Losing Steak Not Indicative of Postseason Play" was originally published at TSW.

The New York Knicks made the NBA trade of the season when they got Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets.

But at what cost?

Forget about the players the Knicks gave up, what about the money?

Prior to the Carmelo trade, the Knicks got the chance to sit in a room with Anthony and have a conversation with they player to see where his mind was at. Clearly, in the interest of the Knicks, Knicks brass must have asked Carmelo whether he was willing to wait out the season and allow the Knicks to sign him without having to give up anybody in a trade.

Clearly, the answer was no. It had to be. Otherwise, the Knicks would not have traded four starters to land one guy.

So the question is, why? Why would Carmelo say no to that? Especially when waiting to go to New York in free agency was in the best interest of the Knicks, which means it was in the best interest of Carmelo’s on-court success, should the Knicks be the team he goes to.

As is the answer to most things, the reason Carmelo forced the Knicks to pay too much for Carmelo is because of money.

Money won out again, as it usually does in the NBA. Carmelo did not want to go into this off-season without a new deal, knowing that possible NBA CBA talks could result in him losing as much as $30 million over the life of his next contract, during a time that would be his prime earning years. Carmelo didn’t want to risk losing that much money just to make his future team better, so he told the Knicks to make a trade for him now or that he would indeed sign a contract extension to assure himself the 3-year, $65 million deal that he had left on the table for quite some time.

So we have a quintessential, “he did it for the money” situation here. Carmelo tapped the Knicks of all their talent so he could get his money and have his way. Now, I’m not going to get into whether or not that was the right thing to do, because I can’t sit here and judge a man for demanding his worth. However, I will compare Carmelo to some of his NBA basketball contemporaries.

It wasn’t even a year ago that LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all decidedly took less money to play with the Miami Heat. If you don’t recall the particulars, let me tell you what they are. LeBron James and Chris Bosh could have signed six-year contracts worth $125 million. Dwyane Wade could have signed a contract worth even more since he wasn’t changing teams. Instead, Bosh and LeBron signed contracts worth $15 million less than the max, giving them each $110 million, 6-year deals. Wade took an even bigger cut, signing at $107 million for six years.

To add to that, they didn’t just take those cuts to play with each other, they took those cuts to bring in additional role players. Pat Riley first got the three to take less money to bring in Mike Miller. And Dwyane Wade implored Bosh and LeBron to take even less money to keep Udonis Haslem, and to demonstrate his belief that Haslem would be a stellar addition to the team, Wade volunteered to give up more money than Bosh and LeBron.

That’s what the three stars of the Miami Heat did to do everything in their power to put together the best team they could this past off-season. However, Carmelo took another route.

When faced with the opportunity to risk some cash, albeit an unknown amount, Carmelo essentially said, “No thank you.” He said “no thank you” to having Danillo Gallinari hit threes. He said “no thank you” to having Wilson Chandler play defense with him. ‘Melo even said “no thank you” to having a big man like Timofy Mozgov or a quintessential Mike D’Antoni point guard like Raymond Felton.

Carmelo did, however, say “thank you” to a boatload of cash and a stripped down Knicks team, which last night, wasn’t even better than the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Again, I’m not questioning Carmelo’s decision, it’s totally understandable to take the option with more money over less—everybody across the world makes similar decisions everyday. However, in this new NBA, in which three of the NBA’s top 15 players decidedly took less money to make the best team possible makes it hard for players to make money-based decisions that will help their team win championships.

Speaking of championships, perhaps that’s something Carmelo didn’t consider when opting for more money. Moving past the fact that Carmelo’s decision resulted in the loss of valuable Knicks players, how about the fact that Carmelo’s large contract may prevent the Knicks from landing the third superstar that they need in order to win a championship over the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls. Of course, Amare Stoudemire’s contract is just as much of an issue, but Stoudemire was never in a real position to choose to talent over income. Carmelo was explicitly faced with the decision of letting the Knicks keep their players or at least signing for less than the max. He chose neither.

So, I leave you with this question? Did Carmelo’s thirst for money cost him and the New York Knicks organization a championship? It’s quite possible that it did. Only an NBA Finals victory will give us the true answer to that question, but much like the likelihood of the Knicks having the room to sign a third superstar, the Knicks odds to win a championship under a new CBA aren’t looking too good in the wake of the Carmelo Anthony trade.

The post "Carmelo’s Thirst for Cash Contradicts Miami’s Thirst to Win" was originally published at TSW.

It finally went down. Carmelo Anthony is a member of the New York Knicks.

In an NBA trade that was months in the making, both the Denver Nuggets and the Knicks finally decided it was time to play “let’s make a deal.” The Knicks, in my opinion, got robbed, giving up four starters for Carmelo Anthony. But let’s face it; they would have been killed if they had lost out on Anthony just to hold on to Timofey Mozgov.

So what exactly does the trade consist of?

In this trade, the New York Knicks got Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, Corey Brewer and Renaldo Balkman.

The Denver Nuggets received Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, the Knicks 2014 first-round draft pick, the Golden State Warriors 2012 second-round pick and the Warriors 2013 second-round pick, along with $3 million in cash.

The third-party in this, the Minnesota Timberwolves, picked up Eddy Curry’s expiring contract and Anthony Randolph.

So who came out on top?

Putting the Timberwolves aside, the New York Knicks came away with Carmelo Anthony. So at the end of the day, they have the best player in the deal, and there is an old adage in NBA basketball that says if you got the best player, you won the trade. However, the problem with that line of thinking is that is exactly what Isiah Thomas achieved throughout his tenure with the Knicks. I’m not saying that Zeke ever brought in somebody with the promise of Anthony’s talents, but nine times out of ten, when Thomas made a trade, he got the best player in the deal, and you see where that philosophy got the Knicks.

Then again, it’s not as if I have to argue this point to everybody in the New York Knicks front office. As reports have suggested, Team President Donnie Walsh and Head Coach Mike D’Antoni were not in favor of this trade. Then again, Walsh and D’Antoni haven’t done much with the New York Knicks since arriving there, other than signing the lone major free agent available to them last summer by giving him more money than anybody else was willing to pay him. Still, their concerns are valid. The Knicks were the fifth best offense in the NBA so far this season, and to give way four of the five starters that made that possible is definitely questionable.

As for the Nuggets, they got a ton of players and assets in this trade. The only problem is that I’m not sure those players/assets are worth very much. While Chandler, Gallinari, Felton and Mozgov looked good in D’Antoni’s system, I’m not so sure they just weren’t the beneficiaries of being looters in a riot. D’Antoni’s mad-dash offense always results in enhancing the statistical performance of its players. Just look back at D’Antoni’s days with Phoenix and remember the great performances by Tim Thomas, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa and Raja Bell. All of them have done nothing since leaving Phoenix, and they hadn’t done much of anything before getting there either. So who is to say that just because the Nuggets got four Knicks starters that any of those players are any good? Not me.

However, chances are, by the time I finish writing this article, the Nuggets may have moved half the players they received from the Knicks—if not all of them. Certainly, there are good teams out there in search of a quality point guard. Hell, the Miami Heat could certainly benefit from having Raymond Felton at the point instead of Carlos Arroyo. And when it comes to do-it-all wing men, Chandler’s exploits could be utilized by the Los Angeles Lakers or the Chicago Bulls. If the Nuggets can parlay some of these Knicks acquisitions into first round NBA draft picks or VERY promising young players, perhaps they come out looking a little bit better than they did the second after this trade with the Knicks went down.

At the end of the day though, if I were to guess which team is going to be better for the rest of this season, I would have to say it’s the Knicks with Billups at the point and with Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony at the forward positions. Next year, the Knicks will again have the better team. Projecting out two years from now, perhaps after the Knicks scoop up another superstar point guard like Deron Williams or Chris Paul, the Knicks will likely be the better team. And unless the Nuggets acquire a transcending player in the NBA Draft really soon, I would guess that the Knicks will be the better team five years from now, barring significant injuries.

Thus, it looks as if the “best player in the trade” theory wins out in this scenario. As much as I think the Knicks got robbed in this trade, it’s hard to argue with the notion that they have two great players they can build around, and it’s much easier to conjure up role players than it is to conjure up superstars. Knicks owner Jimmy Dolan made the decision that he needed to get Carmelo. Certainly, Isiah would have made this move, and some reports suggest that Isiah did make this move. Either way, for the next five years, most GMs would want to be in the Knicks position and not that of the Nuggets. And for that reason, the Knicks win this trade, but given what they had to give up, it was one heck of a crappy way to win it.

The post "Carmelo Anthony Traded to NY Knicks" was originally published at TSW.

Alright, New York Knicks fans. It looks like you are going to get what you asked for. You are going to have your chance at Carmelo Anthony, even if it means selling your souls to do it.

It was just last week that the video above was released. In it, New Yorkers, a questionable bunch of New Yorkers might I add, told an ESPN reporter that the Knicks needed to get Anthony no matter what.

Well, “no matter what” appears to be the Knicks stance. Over NBA All-star Weekend, the Knicks offered the Denver Nuggets the whole kitten-caboodle. After months and months of drawing a line in the sand stating that they were not going to give up both Wilson Chandler and Danillo Gallinari, the Knicks have offered both of their promising young wings to the Nuggets in return for Anthony. In addition, the Knicks will also ship a first round pick and Eddy Curry to the Nuggets. Not to mention, the Nuggets are currently asking for Timofey Mozgov. And as part of secondary trade, the Nuggets have offered Chauncey Billups for Raymond Felton, which would help the Nuggets get under the salary cap for the year.

So to reiterate, the Knicks would get:

Chauncey Billups
Carmelo Anthony
Bench players to make the trade cap-friendly

The Nuggets would get:

Wilson Chandler
Danillo Gallinari
Raymond Felton
Eddy Curry
First-round Pick
Timofey Mozgov (maybe)

That my friend is called highway robbery!

Don’t’ get me wrong, Carmelo Anthony is a better offensive player than all of those guys. But even if I were to agree with the notion that he’s worth all of these players in a relatively normal situation, he certainly isn’t worth that much talent when the team trading him is afraid of losing him for nothing the second that season is over.

In fairness to the Knicks though, they did get screwed by the Nuggets and the New Jersey Nets. The Nuggets, in all likelihood, reached out to New Jersey and told the Nets that they should get back in the trade talks unless they wanted to see their cross-river rivals land Carmelo Anthony in the off-season for nothing. It was a great tactical move on the part of the Nets to jump back in this thing, especially since the two franchises have been taking jabs at one another since Mikhail Prokhorov purchased the team last summer.

Of course, the real masterminds here were the Nuggets. By bringing New Jersey back into the fold and reportedly allowing Anthony to talk with the Nets, they made it seem as if Anthony was willing to go to New Jersey. The Knicks, having seen videos like the one at the start of this post, know that they can’t afford to see Anthony playing in Brooklyn a year-and-a-half from now. So the Knicks upped their offer and will be left with what amounts to two all-stars and an aging point guard when it’s all said and done.

On the flip side, the Knicks are unlikely to maintain all of their talent even if Anthony waits until the off-season to join the team. The Knicks have no intention of keeping Eddy Curry around. Moreover, to sign Anthony, the Knicks probably would have to release Wilson Chandler. While they possibly could do a sign-and-trade with the Nuggets to keep Chandler, that would mean giving up somebody. That likely somebody, however, would have to be a player of remote interest to the Nuggets; i.e. Wilson Chandler.

So, one way to look at this is to say that the Knicks are giving up Gallinari, Felton, possibly Mozgov and a first round pick for Anthony and Billups given that they would lose Chandler anyway. That’s the argument some people are making to back this trade, but I still have one point of contention with that.

Carmelo Anthony should want to keep as much talent on the Knicks as possible. After all, it’s he who is going to get a lot of blame for the Knicks downfalls when they are incapable of beating the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and possibly the aging Boston Celtics, during Anthony’s first couple of years in the Eastern Conference. Having players like Gallinari and Chandler on the Knicks roster are beneficial to Anthony and his soon-to-be teammate, Amare Stoudemire, since neither of these so-called forwards can rebound worth a damn.

However, money is a funny thing. And there are so many variables that could mess with Anthony’s money. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement could insert hard caps, salary limitations and the elimination of many player benefits. These possible insertions into the CBA could subtract as much as $20 million from the Anthony’s salary over the next three years. Now, forgive me from sitting here with less than $20 million in my pocket and making a comment about Anthony’s money, but I would think that he’s willing to sacrifice that to play with a contender, which is what the Knicks could possibly be with him, Amare, Chandler, Gallinari, Mozgov and Felton. Even if the Knicks can’t compete with that rotation, they could turn those pieces into other pieces. But no matter what they do, giving up the kitchen sink for one guy won’t get them on the Heat or the Bulls level anytime soon.

But there is one more caveat, and it has nothing to do with money. Carmelo may not even care about the money, if what his real concern is that he may not be able to leave Denver this off-season. If Anthony truly wants to go to New York and is forced to wait until this off-season to do it, it’s quite possible that he may not have the option. Once the new CBA is all said and done, there may be a new clause that introduces the franchise tag to the NBA. If that’s the case, the Nuggets could then tag Anthony and keep him Denver until somebody offers them what they want. Of course, the franchise tag is only something that has been brought up, and given the uneven value of a player in basketball, as opposed to in the NFL, it would be hard to come up with “fair compensation” for a franchise player (e.g. two first round picks for a franchise player in the NFL) in the NBA.

The risk of having to stay in Denver for another year would probably do considerable damage to Anthony’s psyche. If that’s what he’s afraid of, then I can understand why he might want to force the Knicks to trade for him now.

However, the Knicks have more insider information that either Carmelo Anthony or myself. As the NBA’s most valuable team, they have a pretty good feel (if not influence) as to what the future CBA will look like. If they couldn’t convince Anthony to get on board with them given the information they have available, it’s their own poor negotiating skills they have to blame. That is ultimately why I have to deem this trade proposal by the Knicks an absolute failure on the part of their front office. Sure, in the long run, the Knicks win, because they can only get better with Carmelo and Stoudemire on the same team.

However, if they can’t get the right pieces around those two guys before their respective primes evaporate, Knicks fans will look back at this trade and wonder what would have happened had they waited to get Anthony in the summer. While waiting means possibly losing out on Carmelo, a wise person once told me something very valuable the day after I got rejected by a girl for the first time: “There are plenty of fish in the sea.” And while Carmelo may be in a special category, but he’s not alone in that category, and I don’t think anything is worth giving up everything. Unless your name is Michael Jeffrey Jordan or Tim Duncan in their primes, no one player has been that solely responsible for a team’s ability to win championships.

The post "Carmelo Anthony Trade Talks: Knicks are offering too much" was originally published at TSW.

Say what you want about Carmelo Anthony, but don’t say he’s not beloved by his NBA brethren.

If there’s one question that all NBA general managers, players and fans are asking themselves right now, it’s “Where will ‘Melo go?”

Talk of acquiring the basketball super star in a trade is heating up as we approach the NBA’s trade deadline on February 24, 2011. All sorts of teams are in the mix, including the self-proclaimed “we’re out of it” New Jersey Nets, who reportedly are meeting with Carmelo Anthony during the NBA’s All-Star Weekend in Los Angeles.

Of course, there are other teams in the mix, most notably the New York Knicks, who appear to have the ability to pull the trigger on a trade if they want to; they just have to be willing to sacrifice everything and anything to get Anthony if they succumb to the pressure.

However, there are some dark-horse contenders out there, which could make the race for Anthony even more troublesome for the pack-leading Knicks. And if any of these outside-chance teams begin to peak Carmelo’s interest, the Knicks may have to give up the entire kitchen sink or risk missing out on a tremendous basketball talent…again!

So who’s now in the mix to acquire Carmelo Anthony before the trade deadline passes next week. Here is a synopsis of the top four teams in the running.

New York Knicks
Obviously, the New York Knicks are the leaders in this race. It appears that the Denver Nuggets have made it quite clear as to what arrangement of players and draft picks they want from the Knicks, and for all intents and purposes, the Knicks can afford to pay the alleged price of Eddy Curry, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Landry Fields, Roger Mason and a first round pick that they don’t have—yet. It’s a steep price to pay, however, Chauncey Billups would be a part of that deal, and that would give the Knicks the two best offensive players from the best offense in the league—yes, I’m talking about Denver.

New Jersey Nets
When you call a press conference to announce that you’re NOT going to do anything, one would think that you mean business. But as it is in any business, the Nets were never out of this race until the race was over. The Nets have reportedly been talking to the Nuggets over the past several days, and as it stood over a month ago, if Carmelo were willing to sign an extension with the team, the Nets offer of Derrick Favors, multiple first-round picks and Troy Murphy’s contract appear to be good enough to win over the hearts and minds of Denver’s front office. Now if only the Nets can win Carmelo’s heart, they will have pulled the ultimate coup d’etat against the Knicks.

Houston Rockets
The Rockets are a fringe choice to win over Melo before the trade deadline, but they certainly have the pieces to make an offer to Denver. The Nuggets would give up a first-round draft pick, Yao Min’s contract, and a couple of their stud young guys, most likely, Chase Buddinger, Patrick Patterson or Jordan Hill. Of course, this is all a moot point if Carmelo Anthony doesn’t want to play for the Rockets, but playing basketball in Houston wouldn’t exactly be the hardest thing for Carmelo Anthony to get over.

Dallas Mavericks
Mark Cuban recently announced that he was very unlikely to complete a deal before the NBA’s trade deadline on February 24th. However, it’s not over till it’s over, and the Mavericks certainly have the pieces to make things interesting. Irregardless of what the Mavericks might offer the Nuggets, they have the pieces to make this happen without losing too much, if any, front line talent. Cuban knows the clock is ticking on this aging Dallas Mavericks team, and he may be willing to give away whatever it takes to land the NBA’s most desired trade piece. That being said, Anthony probably won’t sign an extension with the Mavericks—or so we think. If things look bleak around the 23rd, and his Knicks aren’t putting up an offer that will get him out of Denver, Melo might reconsider. Even if he doesn’t, Cuban just might be hard-pressed enough to rent Anthony for the remainder of the NBA season and see if he can get his Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki that championship that has alluded them for so long—the same championship they might not otherwise get without some help.

The post "Where will ‘Melo Go?: Carmelo Anthony trade talk rumors are heating up" was originally published at TSW.

On his radio show in New York (and as noted in the video above), Stephen A. Smith let it be known that he is going to call for people’s jobs if the New York Knicks don’t have Carmelo Anthony on the roster at the end of the day on February 24, 2011, the NBA’s trade deadline. Of course, Stephen A. Smith can’t actually fire anybody, but if we could threaten Donny Walsh with the possibility of having to listen to an hour long scolding from Screaming Stephen A, maybe we could see some progress on these trade talks.

Then again, do we really need progress? Is it even progress at all?

Right now, the New York Knicks are essentially a slightly better than .500 team, and that’s what they will be at the end of the season if things are what they are today. As the roster stands, the Knicks can probably beat any team in the league in a one-game sample size, and they can lose to any team in the NBA in a one-game sample size. Their weaknesses are rebounding, defense and interior scoring when Amare Stoudemire is not in the game or is in foul trouble. The Knicks positives are three-point shooting, shot-blocking and good offensive movement.

Now, if you bring Carmelo Anthony into that mix, you’re not exactly helping us in areas of need. Carmelo’s a great scorer, and may alleviate some of the inside-scoring problems for the Knicks when Amare’s out, but Melo’s three-point shooting is atrocious, and that’s unacceptable in a Mike D’antoni style offense. Not to mention, Anthony needs the ball in his hands, and with high-caliber point guard like Raymond Felton on the team, Anthony’s need for the ball, coupled with Stoudemire’s, may stagnate an offense that has moved the ball well all season long. And of course, on the defensive side of the basketball court, Carmelo Anthony makes the New York Knicks worst than they already are. He can’t defend a 3-year old toddler on the perimeter, and his rebounding, as good as it can be at times, is spotty at best on average.

Let’s face it, as presently constructed, the addition of Carmelo Anthony to this team, coupled with loss of somebody like Wilson Chandler or Raymond Felton, is too high of a price for the Knicks to play. It’s quite possible, that should the sixth place Knicks make that trade, they could miss the playoffs. It’s not likely, but given how shaky the Knicks are right now and how much worse Anthony makes the Knicks in some spots, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Knicks finished the season 41-41 and missed the postseason after depleting their team in a Carmelo Anthony trade.

What Knicks fans and Stephen A. Smith do not want to admit is that their basketball team is actually better off if it holds off and waits to get Carmelo Anthony in the off-season, when they may also have a shot at trading for Chris Paul. Granted, that may be a pie-in-the-sky scenario, but nobody wants to see this team take a step back in the mist of the season, and a Carmelo Anthony trade could end in such a tragedy.

So what’s the best alternative to trading for Anthony? Standing still.

Sometimes it’s okay to go the pace. The New York Knicks aren’t winning the NBA championship just by adding Carmelo. They aren’t winning the championship if Chauncey Billups comes with him, as was reported of a potential trade a few days ago. So why go trading for a piece that won’t even have the kind of positive effect on a team that receiving a player of Carmelo’s caliber should have?

The Knicks, and Knicks fans, including Stephen A., need to just chill out and let the Knicks wait until the off-season to sign Carmelo. Of course, with a new collective bargaining agreement and free agency waiting for Anthony, nothing is guaranteed when Anthony hits the free agent market this summer. However, there’s also nothing guaranteed to the Knicks by getting him at such a steep cost. If the Knicks are going to be a great team centered on Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, there needs to be other pieces involved. The reported trades on the table don’t have the Knicks keeping or attaining enough of those other pieces. Without them, it makes acquiring Carmelo via trade pointless and the fans crazy. Let Carmelo yoke this thing out in Denver for the rest of the season, New Yorkers. It’s what’s best for you, even if Carmelo never winds up being a New York Knick.

The post "Carmelo Anthony to Knicks? Not so fast…" was originally published at TSW.

In our February NBA Power Rankings, one thing must be accounted for: the Miami Heat continue to struggle with the Boston Celtics.

The Miami Heat aren’t the only team struggling with top tier competition. The Los Angeles Lakers have taken losses to the San Antonio Spurs and the Orlando Magic within the last couple of days. And even though they beat the Boston Celtics lately, rumors are circulating that the team may be interested in acquiring Carmelo Anthony, just to bolster their chances at a three-peat.

Some teams, however, don’t appear to have any serious problems. The San Antonio Spurs have the best record in the NBA. The Boston Celtics are in just about every game they play, and as of February 14, 2011, are in first place in the Eastern Conference. And the Chicago Bulls continue to play consistent basketball as they remain just 2.5 games behind the Celtics for that #1 spot.

Keeping all of that in mind, here are the NBA Power Rankigns for the month of February.

1. San Antonio Spurs (45-9)
The San Antonio Spurs remain the league’s most consistent team in basketball. It’s actually quite surprising given their advanced age and the fact that their long-time best player is now their third best-player—at best. However, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili continue to play at all-star levels, and Richard Jefferson’s high level of play is what has the Spurs on top of the NBA.

2. Boston Celtics (39-14)
The Boston Celtics may not be the quickest or the youngest team in the NBA, but they sure don’t have a problem beating teams that are more athletic than them. Having handled the Heat, Magic and the Knicks this season, the Celtics only struggle appears to be with teams that are bigger than them. That’s okay. A lot of that will be rectified when Kendrick Perkins gets back to full strength and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal are back on the floor for Boston.

3. Dallas Mavericks (38-16)
A mist all of talk about the most star-studded teams in the NBA, the Dallas Mavericks are playing some outstanding basketball. With Dirk Nowitzki back and healthy, the Mavs have been rolling, winning 9 of their 10 games. In fact, the only reason their record is as relatively bad as it appears to be is because they have had the toughest schedule among the top 10 teams in the NBA. With that said, the Mavericks have a much easier schedule for the remainder of the season, and they would appear likely to fend off the Lakers for the second best record in the Western Conference.

4. Miami Heat (39-15)
It’s hard to hold on to our prediction that had Miami winning the NBA Championship this season, but we will ride this thing until the wheels fall off. What keeps us going is the fact that the Miami Heat are ranked third in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Of course, those rankings could be boosted by excelling against inferior teams. But it should come as no surprise that despite those rankings, they still continue to struggle with Boston, which happens to be an even more efficient defensive team than the Heat.

5. Chicago Bulls (36-16)
I am not quite ready to put the Bulls ahead of the Heat (and neither has John Hollinger for that matter!). Still, one has to recognize, that despite being beaten by Miami in “fanfare” all season long, the Chicago Bulls are only a few games behind the Heat and have yet to lose to anyone in their unbelievably weak division. We should get a good idea of exactly who the better team is in the next three weeks, as these two teams will face off twice during that time span. As for this whole Derek Rose for MVP thing, I’m in the LeBron camp right now, but if the Bulls prove to be the better team, I may have to change my vote.

The post "NBA Power Rankings: Top 5 Teams" was originally published at TSW.

It might be a little too early to name the NBA MVP for 2011, but so far, the verdict is pretty clear. We are two-thirds of the way through the NBA season, and in one of the most surprising outcomes of the year, LeBron James has still been able to demonstrate his dominance on an NBA basketball season.

Why is that a surprise?

Well, conventional wisdom said that with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh now at LeBron James side on this new Miami Heat team, LeBron would likely take a step back and allow Wade and Bosh to do a lot of the things he was forced to do when he was in Cleveland. However, contrary to what most people predicted, LeBron James has had to continue carrying the load for his fellow teammates.

LeBron’s continual dominance, even when surrounded by two all-stars, is more of a knock on the Miami Heat than it is praise to LeBron. Coming into this season, LeBron was the best player in the NBA. The only question was whether his team would be too dominant for him to exhibit his basketball playing greatness. The Heat, apparently, aren’t that dominant. Miami, for lack of a better word, is underachieving. Sure, they aren’t fighting for the 8th seed or floating around a .500 record, but the fact that they don’t have the best record in the NBA, the conference, or are essentially tied with the Chicago Bulls just goes to show you how un-dominant this Heat team has been.

Going back to the MVP talk, clearly, this lack of dominance has helped LeBron’s MVP chances tremendously. He has had to stay in games longer than we expected him to. Due to a lack of an offense, he has had to continue creating scoring opportunities for himself in the fourth quarter. And most importantly, LeBron has had to be just as much of a facilitator this season as he was in Cleveland.

One of the most glaring statistics concerning the Heat’s need for LeBron to facilitate is LeBron’s Assist Ratio, which measures the percentage of a player’s possessions that end in an assist. When you compare James’ assist ratio from this year, with Miami, to last season, with the Cleveland Cavaliers, this year’s assist ratio is only 6.4% lower than it was last year. That means that if you gave the basketball to LeBron James for the 29 possessions that he usually gets to control the basketball, he would finish the game with 6.4 assists this year versus the 6.8 assists he would have recorded on average a season ago with a worst team.

That’s a pretty amazing stat when you consider that LeBron is still asked to score 26 points per night for the Miami Heat, does a lot of rebounding and essentially gets the same number of touches per possession that Dwyane Wade gets.

Beyond the assists though, the play of LeBron James just continues to be the best basketball we have seen in some time. He is the most efficient basketball player in the NBA—by far. His true-shooting percentage rate is incredibly high for someone who is asked to do as much as he does (his usage and rebound rates are really high). And LeBron continues to be one of the premiere defenders in the league and has helped lead Miami to a great record and the fourth best defense in the NBA.

All that said, there are people who could challenge LeBron for the MVP award during the final third of the season. For example, Derrick Rose is having a hell of a season. Derrick Rose’s numbers of 25 and 8 are incredible for a player in only his third year in the league, and Rose might play well enough to win that #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. If Dirk Nowtizki can get the Mavericks back on track, he could be in the running. Chris Paul, the NBA’s second most efficient player, could also challenge LeBron. And if Amare Stoudemire plays the way he did for a 20-game stretch earlier in the season, maybe he will be worthy of the award.

Still, it looks like LeBron James is headed for another MVP award, no matter what those guys do. As it stands now, the players I just mentioned are long shots even if they have a spectacular last 30 games. Notice, I didn’t even bring up Kevin Durant, who while having another great season, just doesn’t measure up to LeBron’s all around game.

Actually, the only thing that is going to stop LeBron James from winning the 2010-2011 NBA MVP award this year, is LeBron James himself. If the Heat start to play like the world beaters we thought they were coming into the season and LeBron decides to step back as the Heat’s rank in the Easter Conference becomes solidified, we may not see enough of LeBron’s high level of play to give him the award. But based on a 50-game sample size, the Heat aren’t going to do that. Thus, making LeBron James the King, yet again.

The post "And the 2011 MVP Award goes to…" was originally published at TSW.

During a radio interview in Miami, Miami Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra was asked if having Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade was all the Heat needed to win the NBA championship. Spoelstra said “no,” and rightfully so, because after all, that was just a ridiculous question in the first place.

However, there is something to be derived from the combination of that question and Spoelstra’s answer. Six months ago, nobody was talking about Miami Heat’s “supporting cast.” Nobody said that the Heat would unequivocally need Carlos Arroyo, Mike Miller and Joel Anthony to play championship-level basketball to win the NBA title in 2011. When this Miami Heat triumvirate was put together last July, everybody thought that as long as the Big Three were healthy and learned how to play together, they would carry the team to success. In opinion, that’s a fair notion. Yet with the Heat’s string of troubles at various points during this 2010-2011 NBA basketball season, many people, Coach Spoelstra included, have said that the Heat need their supporting cast to be a big part of the Heat’s playoff run. And to me, that’s a ridiculous notion.

Think back to the Chicago Bulls dynasty. Their first three championships came with the expertise of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, and I suppose you can throw Horace Grant in there as their #3. Back then, nobody expected John Paxson to be the difference between the Bulls winning a championship and them flaming out in the playoffs. Sure, Jordan’s supporting cast couldn’t have been God awful, but never in a million years would anyone have faulted poor play by the supporting as the reason for the Bulls losing. The media would have said that Jordan and Pippen didn’t come through, and they would have criticized them non-stop, until the Bulls eventually won a championship.

Same thing with Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal during the Los Angeles Lakers dynasty. Robert Horry and Derek Fisher were nice players, but if they had their worst stretch of the season during the playoffs, nobody would have said they are the reasons the Lakers failed to win championships. The media just would have blamed Shaq for missing one-too-many free throws and Kobe for taking one-too-many shots.

Now before you get all traditionalist on me, let me clarify what I’m saying. I’m not saying that we don’t ever take into consideration the supporting cast around a player. It’s well documented that the players around Kobe after Shaq left were not enough for him to win a championship. To take it to another sport, Dan Marino was not what kept the Miami Dolphins from winning Super Bowls. And Barry Bonds didn’t fail to win a World Series because of how he played either.

However, you have to be able to differentiate between not having a championship-caliber team and having a championship team that fails to execute. Right now, the Miami Heat has all the pieces it needs to win a championship. Those pieces are called LeBron, Wade and Bosh. As far as anything else goes, there only needs to be two other players on the court. Last time I checked, those two other players will always be professional basketball players; most often times first round NBA selections. So as long as they aren’t playing Ray-Ray from the hood, they have what they need to win a championship.

Thus, when Erik Spoelstra says that just having his big three healthy isn’t enough, while true, it does make me recognize where we are with this Miami Heat team. While yes, the other two players (and sometimes three) on the court can’t take the ball on offense and kick it into the stands, the supporting cast will never be the reason the Heat do not win. When the Big Three came up out of the floor during a welcoming pep rally, I didn’t see Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers behind them. When the Boston Celtics won the championship three years ago, I certainly don’t recall Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins being the reasons that the Celtics brought home the hardware. And when the history books are written, Derek Fisher and Trevor Ariza won’t go down as the reasons the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA title in 2009.

So while Spoelstra’s answer to an over-the-top question was accurate; let’s be sure about one thing here: the successes and failures of the Miami Heat will be squarely on the shoulders of LeBron, Wade and Bosh. The fact that we are even discussing how vital it is that Mike Miller gets healthy, or what a loss losing Udonis Haslem for the season is, just goes to show you how short of expectations the Miami Heat have fallen so far this season. In a mere few months, we went from crowning them for the next 4 seasons, to saying that they need Mike Miller’s three-point shooting and Haslem’s interior presence. And if that’s the case, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh aren’t as good at winning basketball games as we thought they were, and we’ll find out this summer whether or not that is the case.

The post "Miami Heat’s Big Three…Are They What We Thought They Were?" was originally published at TSW.

With all-due respect to the New Jersey Nets, the New York Knicks will always be kings of New York City. Nothing could be a bigger testament to that statement than Carmelo Anthony’s current interest, or lack there of, in going to the New Jersey Nets, who will be playing in Brooklyn two seasons from now.

However, only time will tell just how defiant Anthony is in his quest to be a New York Knick. But to this point, Anthony is risking, and has risked, a lot of money in order to keep the big dream alive. If you don’t already know, Anthony has a $65 million contract on the table, and he isn’t signing it as a Denver Nugget—or so he says. Now, the media will keep telling you that he’s putting himself at risk, because nobody knows how much less Anthony will make should the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement drop the value of a max contract. However, that view negates how big of a risk Anthony is currently taking.

First of all, Anthony’s not playing all that well. He’s averaging 5 fewer points than he did just a season ago, and his shooting has gone down the drain. That drop in efficiency, over an entire season, could make Anthony less valuable on the free agent market. Now, in all likelihood, he’s going to get a maximum contract next season even if he averages 5 points for the rest of the NBA year. So while he does risk lowering the value of his stock, the fact that he’s falling from such a high cliff makes the risk here quite negligible.

However, an injury to his knee, ankle, shoulder or whatever else may do him in, could cost Anthony millions of dollars. I don’t want to be the grim reaper or anything, but even the Knicks would have to question signing a 27-year old with 8 years in the league to a maximum contract if he’s coming off a busted ACL or microfracture surgery. Now, those are injuries that don’t happen everyday, but no one would be surprised to see it either. And should Anthony get hurt, he might be hard to insure, and Knicks management may not wan to pay him maximum money without that insurance.

So Anthony isn’t exactly going about this season with a whole lot of confidence. He’s risking millions of dollars to play for a team and a city that he apparently loves, New York. Thus, to people like Michael Wilbon who call the New York Knicks the most overrated franchise in all of sports, he should tell that to Anthony. Apparently, as far as ‘Melo is concerned, the Knicks are more than an underperforming franchise, they are a risk worth taking, because in his eyes, New York City looks like a million bucks—and then some!

The post "Carmelo’s actions prove the Knicks are still king of New York" was originally published at TSW.

At this point in the NBA season, we know which teams are good and we know which teams are bad. What we don’t quite know, and this is important for the Power Rankings, is how well each team fairs against playoff teams. Sure, some teams have faced very rough competition and have proven themselves worthy against all odds. However, other teams have failed to face any tough stretch of games to this point in the NBA season, and it suffices to say, such teams have a lot to prove.

Thus, you will probably notice that in this edition of the NBA Power Rankings, we have given some credent to good teams beating good teams. Teams that have inflated their schedules against basketball squads not destined for the playoffs didn’t fair too well in our rankings, or didn’t make the Top 10 at all. So, for all of you New York Knicks fans out there, don’t fret, your team has their chance to make this list if they can prove themselves on this road trip.

1. Miami Heat (30-9)

The Miami Heat are just too nice right now. Almost as soon as the decision was made, we made it clear that our pick to win the NBA Championship is the Miami Heat. Yes, we backtracked a little bit after the Heat’s two losses to the Boston Celtics, but we haven’t reversed our sentiments. The Heat are still the favorites to win it all, and the last 6 weeks of basketball should be all the proof you need. They have won 20 of 21 games, 9 of their last 10, and their final margin average is +8.6 over the last 10 games. They are going to be a tough team to beat for the rest of the year, especially as Mike Miller gets back in the swing of things. Look out East, there’s a beast among you.

2. San Antonio Spurs (31-6)

The San Antonio Spurs proved to have a chink in their armor this past week. They lost to the up-tempo Knicks and the slow-tempo Boston Celtics—however, the Celtics sped up the tempo on that game. Perhaps the Spurs just can’t play up and down basketball anymore, as we were accustomed to seeing them do for years against the Phoenix Suns, until of course, last post-season, when the Suns ran the Spurs out of the building. That being said, the Spurs have the best record in the NBA, and both of those losses were on the road. It would be much harder to speed up the tempo against the Spurs in their homebuilding, and so long as they maintain this level of play, they will be playing the majority of their postseason games in San Antonio.

3. Boston Celtics (28-8)

The Boston Celtics took down the Spurs, and yet I still have them behind San Antonio. Really, it’s for no other reason than each team’s record, especially over the last 10 games. Neither team has played their best basketball, but the Spurs have been slightly better against a slightly tougher schedule. Not to mention, Kevin Garnett is currently out with an injury, and so long as he isn’t on the court, it’s hard to make the Celtics the favorites in any regard.

4. Orlando Magic (25-12)

We still don’t like the trades the Orlando Magic made all that much. Call us crazy, but there doesn’t seem to be an answer to the question: who is going to play significant time for the Magic if and when Dwight Howard gets in foul trouble? It’s a dilemma that will undoubtedly be tested in the post-season, and unless the Magic get a basketball-savvy, veteran, big-man post player between now and the trade deadline, their previous two trades may come back to hurt them.

5. Chicago Bulls (24-12)

The Chicago Bulls are a funny team to us. They can beat any team in the league, but they can lose to any team in the league as well. They are currently on pace to host a playoff series this summer, which would suggest they are among the Eastern Conference elite. However, losses to the Knicks and the 76ers and Nets concerned us, but then again, they just beat Boston on Saturday, so we have to give them some credit.

6. Dallas Mavericks (26-10)

Dirk Nowitzki is hurt. Caron Butler is done for the season. And the Dallas Mavericks owner, Mark Cuban, is feuding with Phil Jackson. What else can go wrong? The Mavericks looked like the best team in basketball for a while. Now they look like a fledgling NBA squad. Once Dirk gets back, they should be find basket-ball wise, but mentally, I don’t know if they can get over losing their best wingman for the rest of the year.

7. Los Angeles Lakers (27-11)

The Los Angeles Lakers are fresh off destroying the New York Knicks with their size. Yet for some reason, when really bad teams come to town, the Lakers get blown out. Perhaps it’s a lack of concentration, and that happens with two-time champions from time-to-time. But if the Lakers don’t step up soon and they have to take this group of misguided characters on the road during the postseason, it’s going to be difficult for them to make it back to the NBA Finals for a fourth year in a row.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (25-13)

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are playing like men this season. Forget the up-and-coming title, Westbrook is one of the best point guards in the NBA right now, and he may even be the best player on his team.

9. Utah Jazz (25-13)

The Utah Jazz were overlooked coming into the 2011 NBA season, but Deron Williams has let it be known that so long as he is on the court, his team is always in contention. Well, we’ve heard you now Deron.

10. New Orleans Hornets (22-16)

The New Orleans Hornets were the early darlings of the NBA season. They won like 100 games in a row before losing, and they were the first non-quality team to beat the Miami Heat. Those were better times though. The Hornets have are 8-16 over their last 24 games, with most of their wins coming against the creampuffs of the NBA schedule. It’s unlikely that you will see the Hornets up here during our next NBA Power Rankings post, so enjoy it while you can New Orleans.

The post "NBA Power Rankings: January" was originally published at TSW.

The New York Knicks are in the midst of a big road trip, and it is a road trip that is going to tell the entire NBA a lot about what this team is capable of doing in the post-season.

As it stands now, the New York Knicks basketball team is your quintessential 1-and-done team in the NBA playoffs. They are at best a fifth seed, and no one would expect them to beat the Orlando Magic (the likely fourth seed) in a series in which the Magic had the home court advantage. That being said, should the Knicks first-round matchup be against the Chicago Bulls, a team the Knicks have beaten on two occasions this season, then perhaps they would stand a chance. But even then, they become the next rendition of the Atlanta Hawks, a team that can squeak by in the first round and will be pummeled by real contenders in the second round.

Of course, that’s just where the Knicks stand now. Between now and April, the Knicks could play better, make a trade or one of those top teams could suffer a devastating injury. Who knows? However, the most efficient way for the Knicks to be more than a playoff-reaching team, they need to get better—or at least play better. And we are going to find out just how much better they need to get on this crucial road-game stretch.

The Knicks just pummeled the Phoenix Suns as part of their 4-game road trip, but the Suns don’t really count, and playing in Phoenix was like a home game for Amare Stoudemire. The Knicks next three games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trailblazers and Utah Jazz are much more difficult, and will really show us how far the Knicks have to go if they are going to be a threat to any of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

To put it simply, the Knicks have to win 2 out of these 3 games. Call it a de-facto playoff series, a rite of passage, or whatever else you want to call it, but if the Knicks are close enough to being a playoff threat, then they have to demonstrate that by winning 2 of these 3 games. Now, I know what you’re saying, the San Antonio Spurs could very well drop 2 of 3 to these high-caliber teams and they are the best basketball team in the NBA. However, the Spurs don’t have anything to prove. The Knicks do. And given how hungry they should be, and need to be in order to make up for a severe lack of talent, the Knicks cannot afford to lose two of these games against the Western Conferences more talented basketball squads.

Are we setting high expectations? Are we spoiled by a road record that is slightly inflated from having played inferior competition? Yes and yes. But in sports, that what happens. Fans of good teams get spoiled by the results of their good teams. It’s only natural; just think about your own life. If your oldest child is a constant A student, and he comes home with a B- because he started hanging out with his new girlfriend too much, you’re going to be disappointed with him. However, if your youngest child comes home with a B-, but is a typical C- student, you’re probably going to be a tad bit proud of the success he has made.

The New York Knicks have turned into that typical A-student. They have played much better than we thought they would, and our expectations have been raised. Sure, back in the day, winning 2 out of 4 on a West coast road trip would have been more than enough to get New Yorkers to celebrate. However, success brings expectations, and now a .500 road trip would only speak to New York’s inability to move past being an average NBA team. So Knicks fans, just hope that when it’s all said and done, the Knicks come out of these three games against the Lakers, Trailblazers and Jazz with a winning record. If they don’t, that just may be the foreshadowing for poor things to come this April.

The post "Knicks Need Winning Road Trip" was originally published at TSW.

The NFL regular season is over, and those who had a vote for MVP are sure to have cast it already. Clearly, that vote came down to Michael Vick and Tom Brady, with the latter being the choice of TheSportsWatchers.

However, it’s basketball season, and it’s time to move on. This year’s NBA MVP is about as open as it has ever been. Over the past three years, the choice has obviously been LeBron James, even though he only won it in two of those years. This year, with LeBron deferring to his all-star teammates a little bit more, and with so many other players playing for new teams and in new roles, the race for the MVP is about as varied as it has ever been.

So, what leading men are in contention for the 2011 NBA MVP award? Here are the cases for a few of the best players at this point in the NBA’s regular season.

LeBron James – Miami Heat

Like a lot of people, we root against the Miami Heat, but only because we like the underdog. We certainly don’t fault LeBron James for deciding to go to Miami, and “The Decision,” while tacky in all regard, was the exact kind of pompous, train wreck kind of stuff that we love to see in entertainment. So, kudos to LeBron! And kudos to his talent. LeBron’s numbers aren’t what they were in Miami, and they probably never will be. While we are disappointed that he’s not averaging anything close to a triple double this season, at 25 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds, it’s going to be hard to find someone who is playing better than he is. Quite frankly, that player may not exist, and LeBron appears to be getting better with each and every game that passes.

Derrick Rose – Chicago Bulls

A lot of people are on the Derrick Rose bandwagon, and rightfully so. Rose is averaging 24 points per game, 8 assists and 1 steal. He’s shooting a lot better from 3-point land this season too, making 39.4% of his shots from behind the arc. More importantly, he’s the point guard for a team that is 3rd in the Eastern Conference right now. Could Rose afford to be a little more efficient than 45% from the field when he’s taking over 24% of the Chicago Bulls shots? Of course. But if he can keep chucking it up well-enough for the Bulls to stay near the top of the East, we may have one of the youngest players in the history of the NBA to win the MVP award.

Chris Paul – New Orleans Hornets

The New Orleans Hornets cooled down after one heck of a start to the 2010-2011 NBA season. However, don’t blame too much of that on Chris Paul, who remains the NBA’s leader in player efficiency. Of course, Paul drops 17 points and 10 dimes a game on teams too, so he’s more than just an efficient player, he’s prolific. He’s probably never going to get the credit he deserves this season while his team flounders around as the 6th or 7th seed in the Western Conference. But if the Hornets can go back to their winning ways, he very well could be put into serious contention for this year’s MVP award.

Russell Westbrook – Oklahoma City Thunder

We are opposed to putting two people from the same team on the list, which is why you won’t find Dwyane Wade on our list of MVP contenders. Same goes for Kevin Durant, who is having just about as good a season as his starting point guard, but at the end of the day, we like Russell Westbrook’s play a little bit better than the NBA’s runner up from a season ago. Westbrook has been absolutely dominant this season, rendering Durant to a lesser role as a scorer and making so many players on Oklahoma City look a lot better than what they have looked like in years past. Westbrook averages 22 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds per game. Only Derrick Rose and LeBron James are putting up those kinds of numbers across the board; thus, in our estimation, Westbrook belongs in the same conversation they do.

Dirk Nowitzki – Dallas Mavericks

Dirk Nowitzki has won this award before, and I’ll be damned if he can’t win it again. Before Dirk went down with an injury, his team was playing better basketball than anybody in the NBA. They have “struggled” a little bit without him, losing to teams they probably would have otherwise beaten, but when Dirk comes back, rest assure, he’ll have the Dallas Mavericks back on top of the West. Dirk is 4th in the league in efficiency, and he probably scores the least noticeable 24 points of anyone in the league because of how smoothly he does it. Caron Butler is out for the season, meaning Dirk will have an even bigger role upon returning to the squad. Expect his numbers to be even better for the rest of the season, and if they are, he might be the NBA’s next MVP—again!

Amare Stoudemire – New York Knicks

The New York Knicks sure are glad that signing Amare Stoudemire did not blow up in their faces. A lot of people (including us) weren’t sure that Amare gave the Knicks a lot more than David Lee did at the same position, and Amare costs almost twice as much. Boy, were those people wrong! David Lee is about as far away as one can be from leading the NBA in scoring 4th quarter points or ranking second in points per game. Sure, Amare can’t rebound worth a damn, but his defense (when he’s not in foul trouble) is much better than one would have expected it to be this year, and there’s no doubt that the Knicks are a sub-.500 team without him. However, while Amare should be in contention for the MVP award, there’s really no reason to believe that a power forward that doesn’t average 10 rebounds and finishes 6th in East is going to realistically win the award. Sorry, New York. Believe it or not, it hurts us New Yorkers to say that.

The post "This Year’s NBA MVP Candidates" was originally published at TSW.

One of my favorite radio shows in Miami Florida was all over Twitter after the Miami Heat beat the Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points in LeBron James first return to the city of Cleveland. On the LeBatardShow twitter feed, the show suggested that tomorrow’s talking heads and headlines would denigrate LeBron for “not being good enough” in scoring “just 38 points,” and that the game was “meaningless” to begin with. I don’t quite think the media will go to that ridiculous extreme, but as someone who has also been critical of the personal hate toward LeBron James, I can’t help but see some truth in the sarcastic statement the people at The Dan LeBatard Show are making.

Naturally, I certainly will not be jumping into the LeBron James-bashing wagon.

Okay, well, there is just one negative thing I want to run by you all, but I will end on that note, despite how unfair that might seem.

Positively speaking, LeBron James was great in his return to Ohio. By the end of the first quarter, it seemed inevitable that LeBron was going to get a triple double. He would only end the game with 38 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds, but that’s only because the Heat were up by 30 entering the 4th quarter. Had there been any need to play LeBron after the third period, a triple-double would have been recorded by James. Unfortunately, the team he left is so bad now, that their ineptitude prevented him from registering magical numbers against them.

Then again, LeBron did drop 24 of his 38 points in the third quarter, a single-quarter scoring record in the Cavaliers arena. Surely, that’s not going to be a trivia question on the Cavaliers flagship radio station anytime soon.

But points and stats aside, a win was all LeBron needed to shut the Cavaliers up. And when that win seemed inevitable (halfway through the second quarter) the Cavaliers fans that welcomed LeBron back home with a barrage of boos and laughter, fell awfully silent by the end of the third quarter.

With that win, LeBron got the first laugh. He’ll likely get the last laugh too. As talented as the Heat are, they aren’t very good right now, and for the Cavs to lose to them by that much just shows how bad they are, even worse than their 7-11 record would suggest. Meanwhile, the Heat improved to 12-8 on the year and have the Cavs to thank for their Eastern Conference best +8.2-point differential in games this season. Such a margin denotes just how good this team can become, and where they likely will finish the year when the season is over: the NBA Finals.

Couple the win, the Heat’s future, and LeBron’s historical 3rd quarter, and what you have here is a night for Cleveland Fans that will likely be on ESPN’s 50 for 50 series. What the Heat fans have done with commercials, YouTube clips, t-shirts, signs and chants has been quite humorous, but anybody who really cares enough to put their attention towards those things had to be hurt by what happened on that basketball court when LeBron scored 38—for the opposing team! Cleveland couldn’t have just one night—one night! LeBron is going to go on to a life filled with luxury, friends, championship rings and one would have to assume, a whole lot of happiness. And while I hope sports doesn’t define a single man, woman or child that was in Qualcomm arena last night, the fact is, if you cared enough to make an “I hate LeBron” sign or t-shirt for that game, you probably didn’t sleep too well.

But do you know who did?

LeBron James.

I’m just giving credit where credit is deserved. LeBron made sure his team got a win in his return home, and did it in historical fashion. To ask for anything more would be just plain asinine, and apparently, good fodder for my favorite Miami radio station.

I will throw one bone to the LeBron Haters though, because, after all, you have had a tough night. The only thing I question LeBron about after a night like this is, where is that kind of response game in and game out? It’s one thing to have a bad game, but it’s another thing to disappear at times.

LeBron James played horrible in Game 5 of the Boston series last year, but he goes nuts in the first half against a pitiful Cavaliers team? He looks mesmerized in Game 6 of that series while turning the ball over 9 times, but he drops 24 points in the 3rd quarter against the Cavs.

Normally, I wouldn’t question an athlete’s behavior like this from game to game, and even I recognize how small of a sample size I am using here, but I just wonder how capable LeBron is of turning his game on when it needs to be turned on. If he feels motivated, he gives you a triple-double, and if he doesn’t, he gives you 15 points. Actually, that alone is all fine and dandy, but when we have situations when he’s not motivated in games that he needs to be motivated in—well, we see him exit the NBA playoffs well before we ever thought he would.

So for you LeBron haters, I leave you with this. James is the most talented player in the NBA, but sometimes his effort takes a night off. Maybe, just maybe, you’ll be lucky enough to see his effort take off another playoff series this summer, and then you can get your laughs in. However, rest assure, win it all this season or not, this Miami team will bring home the trophy someday, and it will be long before Cleveland ever does. So laugh now, but you can take a guess as to who will laugh last in this scenario, right?

The post "Miami beats Cleveland; Give LeBron the Credit deserved" was originally published at TSW.

Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra.

I’m not even sure whether that’s actually how you spell his name. That’s how little respect I have for him. But then again, it’s not me he’s trying to coach.

Actually, I’m just kidding. That is indeed how you spell his name, but I wouldn’t be surprised if LeBron James doesn’t know how to spell it. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if I asked LeBron about his head coach and he came back at me with, “Erik, who?”

Player meetings, coach-player meetings, meetings at the trap, I could care less what the Miami Heat front office is leaking to the press. What I do care about, as a basketball fan, is whether the NBA’s (one-time) best player, is a complete baby or if he can actually be coached into winning an NBA basketball championship.

To this point, the answer appears to be no.

LeBron James has rejected coaching at every level of his basketball career. In high school, obviously he didn’t need coaching, as Sports Illustrated and ESPN propped him up like the next great basketball messiah. Lucky for them, that’s exactly what he turned out to be. Thus, in his rookie year, LeBron was hardly coached, and it wasn’t long before Paul Silas was forced out as the Cleveland Cavaliers head coach after being blamed for holding LeBron’s growth as a player back.

Then there were the Olympics. Hell, even that all-star lineup of coaches reportedly had concerns over how to approach LeBron James from a coaching standpoint. And don’t even get me started with Mike Brown. Hell, he’s still waiting for an opportunity to coach LeBron James. LeBron would actually take the whiteboard in huddles and draw up his own plays. Although, it’s not as if Brown was at fault for being a complete douche. After all, it was management that was giving LeBron and his friends access to better parking spots, hotel rooms, pressers and extended stays after road games. What the hell was Mike Brown supposed to do when everybody else in the organization was bending over backwards to kiss LeBron’s backside?

Fast-forward past “The Decision,” and what you have is a coach in Erik Spoelstra who doesn’t have to deal with an organization bending over backwards to kiss a living legend’s behind. The Miami Heat are led by President and General Manager Pat Riley. Riley doesn’t take crap from anybody, and he surely isn’t going to take crap from LeBron James. Don’t get me wrong, Riley is going to give LeBron every ounce of respect that he deserves, but unlike in Cleveland, it works both ways.

The Cavaliers were known to give LeBron James and his boys everything they wanted. LeBron’s boys were allowed to fly on the plane, attend press conferences, park inside (as opposed to outside like the rest of the players), and they were given the VIP treatment around the arena.

To go on a tangent for just one second; are these guys 20-something year-old flunkies or just that good at being LeBron’s right hand men? I think “The Decision” should answer that question.

But I digress. Fact is, LeBron and his boys get none of the “I’m better than you” treatment in Miami. Riley has put an end to that. LeBron’s not even captain of the team—need I say more?

Knowing that, Spoelstra should go after LeBron James like the hawk my colleague saw this past weekend go after a pigeon in Boston : with reckless abandonment. Forget all this crap about LeBron James bumping into Erik Spoelstra after the loss to the Dallas Mavericks; the next time LeBron turns the ball over, he should yank LeBron out of the game so fast, that the only thing LeBron should bump into is the 12th man on the bench as they pass each other by.

Okay. I’m exaggerating, but you get my point. Spoelstra is the boss, and Riley has put him in a position to take control of this team. All of this yammering coming out of the locker room about how LeBron is unhappy with Spoelstra is the exact kind of nonsense that Mike Brown and Paul Silas took when they were coaching LeBron James. If Spoelstra doesn’t want to wind up like those guys (aka, out of the league) then he needs to take control of LeBron and the rest of the Miami Heat.

First things first, Spoelstra needs to make LeBron James the point guard. “Reports” have suggested that LeBron doesn’t want to play point guard, but who the hell is asking him? I hope Spoelstra isn’t. LeBron should be the point guard of that Miami heat team. Everybody knows that—hell, LeBron knows it. A smart coach would make LeBron James the Magic Johnson of this team and let LeBron be the natural distributor that he is. Spoelstra’s reluctance to do so is evidence of one of two things. One, Spoelstra isn’t smart enough to make LeBron the point guard, and therefore deserves whatever’s coming to him. Or two, Spoelstra is afraid of LeBron, and his fears will eventually matriculate into the terrible and oh-so-horrible outcome that he is afraid of.

And I know what you’re saying: Spoelstra is being quiet and subservient, because he has the best job in the NBA right now, and if he can just make it past the this rough patch and win an NBA title with this team, then he’s in the clear, and possibly garners legendary status for the rest of his life.

However, the great coaches don’t make it to the top by bending over and taking it in the you-know-what. Great coaches bend others. Great coaches bend personalities, strategies, rules, regulations and minds. But they don’t bend themselves. In fact, they are some of the most stubborn people in the world, and if you don’t believe me, just size up guys like Greg Popovich, Larry Brown, Phil Jackson and the Miami Heat’s own Pat Riley.

Funny thing is, for every successful, stubborn, overblown, egotistical, my way or the highway coach out there, there is an equally pompous and hardheaded douchebag out there that got fired long before he had the success the others had. That makes the approach to being individualistic, unique and forceful a risky one at best. But sometimes, the difference between good and great is only a thin line. And if Spoelstra doesn’t find a way on to the right side of this classification, he’ll have only his passiveness toward LeBron and this team to blame.

The post "Zo Knows: Coach Spoelstra needs to man up!" was originally published at TSW.

The New York Knicks suck.

Perhaps this is a bad time to write this given that they finally got their fourth win 12 games into the season—over the Sacramento Kings. Then again, a win over Sacramento doesn’t make up for a decade of irrelevance, and a promising offseason that many thought would inspire a turnaround at Madison Square Garden.

With the Knicks sitting at 4-12, much has to be questioned. Lucky for them, I have several of the answers.

Should Mike D’Antoni be fired?

I have written about this extensively, which is why I have no problem answering this question.

Of course D’Antoni should be fired…if the Knicks don’t make the playoffs. I’m not one that usually hesitates to get rid of someone once they have proven themselves inefficient, but in D’Antoni’s lone defense, he hasn’t had much talent to work with. Quite frankly, he still doesn’t have much talent to work with, but this is the bed he and his General Manager have made for themselves.

Speaking of which, if these Knicks don’t make the playoffs, forget about Donnie Walsh retiring from his position as leader of the Knicks; he needs to be rushed out the door at season’s end. It was his idea to make the Knicks wait for 2 seasons, and it was his failure to bring another top player to New York City along with Amare Stoudemire. So as much as I am willing to push D’Antoni out the door if his system does not work on the basketball court, Donnie Walsh has to be the first guy sent packing if the Knicks are a complete failure this season.

Was getting Amare Stoudemire the right move?

As a New York Knicks fan, I am just about as fed up with Amare Stoudemire as the rest of you are. But as an ardent fan of the game of basketball, I understand what Stoudemire means to this team. If the Knicks went with David Lee instead of Stoudemire, I know that would have saved the team money and our record may not be any worse than it is right now. However, if David Lee were the power forward here, we wouldn’t be talking about the prospects of Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul teaming up with David Lee to come to New York. It just wouldn’t happen.

Say what you will, but people in the NBA respect what Stoudemire has done on the court as a winner. This is a guy who has had big games in the playoffs, and was the second-best player on a Phoenix Suns team that was hard to beat for a number of years out there in the desert.

So while the fact that in a two-point loss to the Denver Nuggets, Amare had just 24 points, 6 rebounds and a minus-12 plus/minus differential in 32 minutes of play makes me want to tear my eyeballs out of my sockets, I understand that in this new NBA, stars like stars. And it takes a star to get a star, and if the Knicks are ever going to be any good, we need to start with one star…any start…even if it’s a non-rebounding power forward.

Will the Knicks make the playoffs

And of course, this is the only question that matters. Knicks fans would love to go to the Garden in late April for a chance. The last time we got that opportunity it was in 2004, when they got swept by Jason Kidd and the New Jersey Nets. Obviously, that was a very forgettable moment in the time. Thus, it feels as if the Knicks haven’t really been a playoff contender in a decade, and to be honest, it feels even longer than that to people who never saw those late 90’s Knicks teams as a threat to win the title—even though they played in the NBA Finals in 1999.

The Knicks, as of Thursday morning, are 4-8 and in 12th place in the Eastern Conference. They are 1.5 games back of 8th place, and a mere 5 games out of first. Thus, making the playoffs is very much an achievable goal.

However, when looking at this team, it’s hard to see that. It’s hard to envision a team paying somebody $100 million to score 24 points and grab 7 rebounds a night making the postseason. Not to put this all on Amare, because the coach needs a better rotation, Danillo Gallinari needs to man up, and the team as a whole needs to play better defense. All of those goals are possible though. And if the Knicks can just be a little more consistent and get a little bit more out of their $100 million investment, they will be a better team than the New Jersey Nets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Bobcats at the end of the season. Passing those teams would put them in the playoffs, which I fully expect to happen. And if it doesn’t, well, you already know who has to go.

The post "A New York Knicks Debacle: D’Antoni, Amare and Playoffs?" was originally published at TSW.

It is Week 3 in this experiment that is the Miami Heat.

So far, not so good.

Despite a 5-3 start to the season, I still remain entirely of the belief that a team consisting of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh must be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, and my utterly-annoying stance that they are the favorites to the win the NBA championship has not dissipated.

The Heat have a long, long way to go before they can be considered the favorites though. No, this is not an overreaction to their loss to the Utah Jazz at home on Tuesday night. This is a reaction to their loss against Utah, the New Orleans Hornets and the Boston Celtics.

As you might have noticed, these three teams have 3 things in common. They all have top tier point guards. When it comes to seeing the floor, there is no doubt that Rajon Rondo is the best thing going in basketball right now. When you’re talking about the point guard that best penetrates the defense and makes plays passing and scoring, you have to say the name Chris Paul. And when you’re talking about a big, devastating point guard that can’t be physically matched by any 1-guard in the league, that guy’s name is Deron Williams.

All three of these guys managed to knock off the Heat in their first attempts at doing so—with the Heat’s latest execution by point guard coming at home in the comforts of Miami, Florida. The Heat now stand at 5-3, with all 5 of their wins coming against teams lacking a premiere point guard. So what does that say about their chances of winning the NBA title in 2011?

Not a lot, but enough to make me backtrack.

At the end of the day, the only legitimate teams in the Eastern Conference with a premiere point guard are the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. Nobody knows what kind of condition the Boston Celtics will be in once May rolls around. And the Chicago Bulls and Derrick Rose are so young, that it’s hard to consider them the favorite in a 7-game series with the Heat, when most of them haven’t even seen the second round before.

Then there’s the Western Conference. The West is full of top point guards, but fortunately for the Miami Heat, they would only have to face one of them during the playoffs. The Heat don’t have to go through both Deron Williams and Chris Paul, because they don’t play in that PG-laden conference. At worst they have to face just one of them and will have the better team. At best, the Miami Heat could play the Los Angeles Lakers, a team that doesn’t even have a premiere point guard.

So in light of the fact that playing premiere point guards won’t become a 7-game issue for this team. I still believe that the Miami Heat will win the championship. But are they the favorites? No.

“But isn’t calling them my pick to win the NBA championship and then saying that they aren’t the favorites a cop out?” Of course it is! But that doesn’t make it inaccurate!

That’s why when any basketball fan out of South Florida watches an NBA game today, they boo the Heat and root for the other team. The Heat have the pressure on them. They are expected to win and they have the talent to do so—and nobody doubts that.

The question is, can the Miami Heat put it together in time for a deep playoff run, or will top point guards ruin the Heat’s season?

If you believe in the former, you are sticking with your guns and think the Heat’s 3 losses aren’t at all that important at this point in the season. If you’re worried about the latter, you agree with me.

You’ve been warned.

The post "Point guards trip up Miami Heat… Again!" was originally published at TSW.

It was the most anticipated opening game in the 65-year history of the NBA. Never before had 3 of the NBA’s top 15 players been on the same team, in their prime, with so many expectations on their shoulders. But on October 26, 2010, the Miami Heat opened up the start of the basketball season with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in their starting lineup, and they did it with all of basketball nation watching.

On most opening night games, sports fans are more inclined to watch Ron Jaworski and Merril Hoge break down football game tape on NFL Matchup, but with three of the biggest names in basketball set to take on three of the one-time biggest names in basketball, this was Must-See TV on TNT.

So at approximately 7:31, after an off-season of hype, months full of disdain, and the day after LeBron James asked you “What should I do?,” the basketball went up in the air, and what some people are calling one of the greatest teams ever assembled took to the basketball court for the first time.

And they lost.

Badly.

Quite frankly, it wasn’t even close.

And it certainly wasn’t pretty. The Miami Heat, in their opening game against the Boston Celtics, lost 88-80 on the road. LeBron James scored 31 points, but it wasn’t enough, as Rajon Rondo produced even more points by dishing out 17 dimes and dropping 4 points of his own.

The rest of the Heat’s big three failed to show up entirely though. Wade scored 13 points on 4 of 16 shooting, but that doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story. Wade turned the ball over 6 times and more or less looked lost in the offense. The few times he did get aggressive, it was completely out of sync with the rest of the team, and it was usually the one-on-one crap we saw from him last year.

Chris Bosh was no more impressive. While he only contributed 1 of the 15 turnovers created by Miami Thrice, Bosh was also the low scorer with 8 points on 3 of 11 shooting. More importantly, for a guy who played 38 minutes at the power forward position against two of the oldest starting big men in the NBA, 8 rebounds is a joke. Hell, his own teammate, Udonis Haslem, who played fewer minutes, had 11 rebounds. And Kevin Garnett had 10 boards for Boston, while Shaq had 7 boards in less than half the time Chris Bosh was on the court. But we’ll get back to this in a second.

As for Boston’s Big Three, which really should be a Big Five now, KG, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce combined for 49 points (Miami’s three had 52), but they were much more efficient, shooting 15 of 31 from the field. Shaq missed a couple bunnies at the rim, but managed to outscore Bosh with 9 points. And once again, the magnificent Rajon Rondo was the best player on the floor last night, making a difference with assists and blocks while taking tremendous care of the ball (3 turnovers) given the amount of the time he had the basketball in his hands.

But enough stats. It’s time to look at what we really wanted know. What will this Miami Team look like all season? Well, I have four major observations that I took away from that game, and given the fact that the Heat essentially got smacked in the head last night by Boston, one or two of my observations may surprise you.

Observation #1: The head coach has failed to install an offense.

I don’t mean to pick on Head Coach Erik Spoelstra, but that’s the last time I’ll write out his name until he proves to me he deserves to coach this talented group of individuals. The Heat looked abysmal in the first quarter. Here we were, expecting greatness from this team. We though the opening quarter of the game would be filled with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade throwing oops to one another, running pick-n-rolls with each other, and getting out on the break with some early offense to the rim. Instead, the Heat fell right on their face, took bad shots, look disorganized and had no point guard, all the while, scoring a mere 9 points in the first quarter of the game.

More importantly, it didn’t get any better. The only reason the Heat didn’t continually score 9 points for the rest of the game is because LeBron James and the others said to heck with the offense and just started playing street ball—or as LeBron knows it, Cleveland Cavaliers basketball.

Spoelstra should be ashamed of himself. Here LeBron James, Wade and Bosh are, sacrificing awards and points in order to make the game easier for themselves with less of the game relying in their hands, and Spoelstra appears to have implemented no offense whatsoever. Had LeBron James not pulled the crap he did in Cleveland during the 3rd and 4th quarters, this game would have been ugly, and the offensive system would have been questioned even more so.

Observation #2: Maybe LeBron and Wade can’t play together.

I will admit, I never questioned the fact that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade could play together. While some others were out there saying that they both demand the ball way too much to be effective on the court at the same time, I laughed at the idea and basically suggested that talent will always shine through.

But maybe I was wrong?

Hell, it wouldn’t be the first time, but after watching last night’s game, it’s hard not to think that a James-Bosh combo may not be as glamorous as we were hoping. If you watched the game, we saw that the Heat were best when LeBron was dominating the basketball and driving to the rim. In fact, Miami’s best run came with Wade on the bench. Granted, part of that has to do with the fact that this was Wade’s first action in a while after missing time with an injury, but if talent really is talent, Wade and James shouldn’t have looked as bad and as incompatible as they did when they were on the basketball court together.

Let’s face it, Wade needs the rock, and LeBron needs to the rock. That’s how they each have managed to score as many points as they have, and that’s how they both have excelled to highest heights of the game. Can we really expect them to be as prolific as they were in the past without touching the ball as much as they used to? I still think it’s a possibility, but last night was evidence of the contrary, and I’m not sure it can be done.

3. Observation #3: The Heat are small.

Much like my last observation, this observation was a fact I overlooked as well. The Heat are small. When thinking about the three guys they just signed, small never came to mind. I guess that was because of the fact that none of the big three are undersized. Wade is your prototypical shooting guard’s height and is much stronger than your average 2-guard. LeBron James is the Hercules of the small forward position. And Chris Bosh, wall slight in stature, is 6’10”, which is above average these days for a power forward.

However, everywhere else, the Heat struggle. At point guard, you could say Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers are average height, but when put up against Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups and last night against Rajon Rondo, those guys will struggle. Yes, those are three of the biggest point guards in the league, but you saw what happens when that’s the case, and it could be a problem in the future.

More importantly, the Heat are undersized up front. Bosh who finished last season averaging double-digit boards grabbed just 8 boards last night. And that was 8 boards against an old frontline that can’t move. Apparently, Bosh is just too small to battle for the boards. Shaq and KG had no problem moving him out of the lane, and even Glen Davis moved him out of the way for a crucial offensive board late in the game. Neither of the Heat’s centers (Joel Anthony and Zydrunas Ilgauskas) rebound all that well, which leaves most of the boarding up to Udonis Haslem and I suppose LeBron James.

Observation #4: Man, these guys are going to win a lot of games!

I’m not blaming the Heat’s loss on pressure, the jitters, lack of inexperience or a hostile crowd, but look, it was just game #1 of the season, and the Celtics are one of the better teams in the league. Did last night put some doubt into the assumption that the Heat are the preordained Eastern Conference champions? Yes, it did. But it wasn’t enough to change the overall outlook on this team, which is the fact that they are better than just about everybody else out there. Other teams don’t have Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, KG and a colossal guy like Shaq in the middle. So the Heat will club bad teams over the head and beat the majority of the good teams they face. I still think they’ll have the best record in the NBA when all is said and done, and LeBron James is still the best player in the NBA.

However, as we saw against Boston, they have a long way to go before they look elite. But I don’t question the pieces and I’m not overly concerned about their problems during the regular season. This team is going to win a lot of games now through April. As for how they will fair in June, it looks as if Boston might have something to say about who will be representing the East when that month rolls around.

The post "Boston beats Miami; Four notes on the Heat" was originally published at TSW.

With all of the movement in the East, the NBA’s Western Conference suddenly has become the much less interesting conference. With guy like Carlos Boozer and Amare Stoudemire going from the West to the East, the pendulum definitely has shifted, and the East appears to be the more dominant conference as we enter the 2010-2011 NBA season.

That being said, the defending champions still reside in the West, and in all likelihood, any championship in 2011 will have to go through the Los Angeles Lakers. A weaker West should mean an easier path to the playoffs, home court advantage and the NBA Finals. Of course, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Kevin Durant may have something to say about any early NBA predictions that have Kobe and the Lakers going to the Finals for the fourth year in a row.

Here is what we think our Western Conference power rankings will look like come mid-April.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

Jerry Bus may not admit it, but his team definitely made some moves to counteract what Miami was doing in South Beach this summer. The acquisition of Matt Barnes gives the Lakers another perimeter player that can’t bang with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James (on occasion). Of course, the Lakers best transaction to help them defend the Miami triumvirate came over a year ago, when they brought in Ron Artest. Forget Kobe vs. LeBron, if both the Lakers and the Heat make the NBA Finals, it is Ron Artest who will stick LeBron James—and if that’s not must see TV, then what is?

2. Dallas Mavericks

With all due respect to any “rising” teams, the second best team in the West will be the Dallas Mavericks. This is a team full of talent and can play with any other NBA franchise in the league. Dirk Nowitzki is one of the league’s best scorers, and with Roddy Beaubois looking like a future all-star and Caron Butler having had a full offseason with the team, the Mavericks are set to be the #2 team in this conference and challenge the Lakers for Western supremacy.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

We weren’t daring enough to make the Thunder the second best team in the West. Sorry, as much as we love Kevin Durant and what Oklahoma City has going on with their talented roster, it seems a bit of a stretch to project that a team will go from the 8th seed to the 2nd seed with no significant changes to their roster. Of course, the 3rd seed isn’t all that far away from the 2nd seed, but there is a huge difference between the two since the 2nd seed is only guaranteed home court advantage in the 1st round. That said, I truly do believe that the Thunder aren’t the same team that we saw during the first half of the basketball season, and with just one more year of experience, they should go from squeaking into the playoffs to sneaking past teams in the postseason. Having Durant will help with that, given that his improvement has been tremendous from year to year.

4. Portland Trailblazers

Maybe we are more helpful than we should be, but the Portland Trailblazers are the kind of team that eventually has to turn it around, right? They nearly toppled the Phoenix Suns in the first round last year, and they did it despite suffering the most serious injuries of any team in the NBA. They have gotten better and better every season as they always manage to add somebody of value to their incredibly deep roster. This year, if Brandon Roy can stay healthy, the sky is the limit for this team. They have a multitude of big man that can play in the middle with Greg Oden, Marcus Camby, LaMarcus Aldridge and Zaza Pachuilia playing in the frontcourt. Those guys should be Roy’s best friends and making playing basketball in Portland even easier than it already has for this silky smooth swingman.

5. Denver Nuggets

By default, this spot goes to the Denver Nuggets. They didn’t do anything to get all that much better, but with so many teams in the Western Conference losing players to the Eastern Conference, the conference is weaker, and teams like Denver will benefit. Of course, Denver won’t be much of anything if they decide to deal Carmelo Anthony before the end of the season, but maybe—just maybe—they will hold on to the Carmelo and get the most out of him—while they have him.

As for the rest of our rankings…
6. San Antonio Spurs
7. Phoenix Suns
8. Utah Jazz
9. New Orleans Hornets
10. Los Angeles Clippers
11. Memphis Grizzlies
12. Houston Rockets
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Golden State Warriors
15. Minnesota Timberwolves

The post "NBA Basketball Predictions: 2010-2011 Western Conference Power Rankings" was originally published at TSW.

The 2010 NBA Basketball season is approaching us and everything seems set up for a season unlike any other. Never before has the basketball conversation extended through the entire summer and competed with the NFL like it has this season, but with that new-fangled team down in Miami, this year is sure to be full of unprecedented occurrences.

The Eastern Conference has certainly gone through some changes. Obviously, there’s that new trio in Miami that perhaps makes them the best team in the NBA. However, Chicago got stronger, the Boston Celtics may have gotten stronger, the Milwaukee Bucks will be better if they’re healthy, and the New York Knicks have even improved slightly. So even though most of us are ready to crown LeBron James and Dwyane Wade as the kings of the Eastern Conference, these other teams in the East are looking a lot more competitive than they have in recent NBA history.

Still, if you put a gun to our heads, we think the Miami Heat finish the 2010-2011 NBA season on top. As for the rest of the East, here are our predictions for how the final power rankings in this conference will look come April of 2011.

1. Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are clearly the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA right now, and while his throne is in question given his terrible playoff series against Boston and the ever-winning nature of Kobe Bryant, he remains the best basketball player in the game until someone knocks him off his throne. And of course, when you combine the best basketball player in the game with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the picture really begins to look bleak for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Not to mention, having tremendous role players like Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem on the basketball squad give the Heat one of the most complimentary lineups I have ever seen on a basketball court. The East may have one or two more teams with a little more chemistry than the Heat, but I’ll take talent 7 days of the week, and the Heat are unquestionably the most talented team east of the Mississippi.

2. Boston Celtics

Orlando Magic fans might find this blasphemous, but given how the Celtics almost swept the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals last season, no one should be surprised that the Celtics are and should be the better team this season. In fact, if there is going to be an Eastern Conference team to knock off the Heat, this one may be it. The only thing going against the Celtics is their age, and if Coach Doc Rivers can just get KG, Pierce, Allen, Shaq and Perkins into the playoffs on two good legs, Boston will enter the postseason with the most experience of any team in the East. Of course, health is about as predictable and reliable in the NBA as the New York City Bus Schedule, but seeing as how this team really has nothing to play for during the regular season, Doc Rivers should be able to limit any regular season wear and tear.

3. Orlando Magic

Okay, Magic fans, here is your respect. The Magic are very talented, and yet they still have less talent than the other two teams above them. That all could change though if Dwight Howard developed an offensive game over the summer. While I have no way of knowing that prior to the start of the season, one can only suspect that if he made the same type of gains this summer that he made last summer, at the very least, he’ll add one or two offensive movies to his skill set. Still, the Magic remain a team with backcourt that doesn’t appear to be as good as that of its counterparts, and their forwards are as hit-or-miss as you can get. That’s why we just couldn’t give this team the same vote of confidence we gave the Heat and the Celtics, but the Magic are just one trade away from surpassing either one of those two teams.

4. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls truly are an under-the-radar team right now. Is it not possible that this team is as good as any other team in the East? Just think about it. With all due respect to Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose could be the best point guard in the East by the time this season is over. Joakim Noah is probably the second best defensive center in the conference. Carlos Boozer can put up the exact same numbers as a Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. And Luol Deng and Ronnie Brewer are every bit the role players that Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller are—if not maybe better. Listen, we aren’t thinking pie-in-the-sky for the Bulls finish to this season, but we’re not ruling out at least one big upset in the playoffs via the mighty hand of the Chicago Bulls.

5. Atlanta Hawks

Don’t get us wrong, the Hawks are a fabulous team with fabulous talent, but they just seem to be treading water right now. Was giving Joe Johnson more money than anybody else in the NBA the right move? Probably not. But it was the only move they could make. Nobody else was coming to Atlanta and the Hawks are destitute if they get rid of their best player, no matter how God awful he was in the playoffs. The Hawks just don’t have the discipline, or the size, to compete with these teams above them, but they do have the talent to put together a huge number of wins in the regular season. A good seed is the Hawks only chance of playoff survival, but even that comes into question if they wind up trading Jamal Crawford before season’s end.

As for the rest of our projected NBA rankings…
6. Milwaukee Bucks
7. New York Knicks
8. Charlotte Bobcats
9. New Jersey Nets
10. Washington Wizards
11. Indiana Pacers
12. Philadelphia 76ers
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
14. Detroit Pistons
15. Toronto Raptors

The post "NBA Basketball Predictions: 2010-2011 Eastern Conference Power Rankings" was originally published at TSW.

Teams haven’t even solidified their rosters, and yet we are already looking forward to the 2010-2011 NBA season.

This off-season’s convergence of superstars means there are only a handful of teams that can actually win an NBA Title. So consider these preseason power rankings the ones with the most movement you will see all season long.

So without further adieu, here are the top 5 teams heading into the 2010-2011 NBA Season.

1. Miami Heat
No disrespect to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, because Lord knows I was still on their side this time last year when other teams made some big splashes during the offseason in 2009. However, this time around we saw the splash heard around the world. In what was the biggest free agent period in the history of sports, the Miami Heat put together the best three players since Jordan, Pippen and Rodman were winning 70 games a season. With the acquisitions of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Heat are the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Finals in 2011. That’s not to say it’s a done deal, because I think it’s far from over, and the Lakers certainly will contest. But if you’re asking me to rank these teams, giving the #1 spot to the team most likely to win the NBA championship in 2011, then I have to go with the team with the most talent at the top, and there’s no doubt that title goes to the Miami Heat.

2. Los Angeles Lakers
Exactly how far behind the Heat are the Lakers in these Power Rankings? Not much. Not on our accord anyway. When comparing the two teams, we call LeBron and Kobe a push. Paul Gasol used to take his Memphis Grizzlies to the playoffs in a very deep western conference only to get bounced in the first round, just as Dwyane Wade had done over the past two years, so can we definitively say that Wade is better than Gasol? And as for Chris Bosh, he’s a more consistent player than either Lamar Odom or Ron Artest, but is he more talented then either of them—or even Andrew Bynum for that matter? As you can see, I was quite torn about ranking the Heat ahead of the Lakers; however, at the end of the day, the Three Kings of Miami have so much athleticism, that I just had to give them the talent edge. That being said, the Lakers have brought on Matt Barnes and Steve Blake to sure up some holes in their roster. With those two additions and a healthy Bynum, there’s no doubt in my mind that Lakers can three-peat in 2011.

3. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are a team to be reckoned with this season—even with the age issues they have going on. Like most of you, we all counted them out in the second round. What we didn’t count on was seeing the Celtics defense rise to the levels of its 2008 championship-level defense. Here these old guys were, defending the Cleveland Cavaliers with gusto; bringing the Orlando Magic’s offense to a halt; and even making the Lakers struggle down low, where they had a definitive size advantage. Can the Celtics do it yet again? I don’t know, but given how those old guys stepped up as last season, I won’t bet against them. Keeping Nate Robinson was big, but seeing Tony Allen go was not. However, if Robinson can actually get integrated into the offense, I bet he’ll be one of the top 5 scorers for the Celtics this year and will be a much bigger factor in their 2011 NBA Finals run.

4. Orlando Magic
Sadly, we had to put the Magic here. While they have done virtually nothing this offseason except for hold on to JJ Reddick, watch Matt Barnes go to the defending champs, and see Vince Carter remain a member of the Magic, the Magic still have a very talented team. I have always been a big fan of Mikael Pietrus, and with Barnes gone, perhaps that means more time from him. Rashard Lewis definitely wasn’t the player this year that he was during last year’s postseason, but if he can go back to 2009 in 2011, the Magic will be much better off. And of course, there’s Dwight Howard, who could increase his offensive game by as little as 5 or 6% this offseason and that would make all the difference in the world for this team struggling to get over the hump.

5. Dallas Mavericks
So, I know what you’re thinking? How the hell did Dallas get up here? We’re thinking the same thing. We had teams like Oklahoma City and Chicago in mind for this spot, but we just kept saying to ourselves, “If we had to gamble our lives on which of these three teams would have the best record at the end of the year, we’d have to go with the experience and regular season consistency of the Mavs.” I know you’re probably saying, “but the Mavs suck in the playoffs.” This is true, but the Bulls and Thunder aren’t exactly proven playoff winners, so we can’t anoint them either. Besides, with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler and Shawn Marion on this squad, would you really bet on the Thunder or the Bulls over Dallas? I wouldn’t.

Runners up: Oklahoma City Thunder, Chicago Bulls

The post "Preseason NBA Power Rankings: 2010-2011" was originally published at TSW.

Oh look at you! You’re hating! Yes you are, and you know it!

I can’t lie. I’m kind of with you too. Anybody who failed to grow up in South Beach is hoping for this Miami Heat experiment to go down in flames. However, even though I too am hating, I won’t be fooled by my own emotions, as I fully recognize that the Heat are the best team in the NBA entering the 2010-2011 season.

Instead of writing a 2010-2011 NBA Power Rankings entry that crowns the Miami Heat, I’m going with the post that all of you want to see: “How on Earth can the Heat fail to win a championship!”

I know you’re looking for it! I use Google Trends! I see the keywords that bring you to our site! And many of you, and I do mean many of you, are eager to know what could possibly derail the freight train that is the Heat’s Three Kings of Miami.

So without further adieu, I present to you, the five most likely things that can occur this season that would cost the Miami Heat a trip to the NBA Finals.

1. Dwyane Wade gets injured…
Wade has not exactly been the mark of invincibility throughout the course of his career. Sure, he has been “relatively” healthy over the past two seasons, but even during that stretch Wade has missed a few games with some nagging injuries, and one has to wonder if Wade will miss any significant time. Let’s face it; the guy doesn’t exactly play the smoothest basketball in the world. He flings his body into seven-footers, he lands awkwardly on different sides of his body, and Wade’s propensity for blocking shots may hurt him more than it helps his team if he gets injured challenging an Amare Stoudemire dunk attempt. With all due respect to LeBron James and Chris Bosh, that duo loses all of its kick if Wade is on the sidelines. So if the Heat want to win this thing, they need to hope and pray that Wade can avoid injury.

2. Chris Bosh stinks up the joint…
For a couple of months now, Chris Bosh has been subtly lumped into sentences with James and Wade as if he is some type of superstar himself. On the contrary, if this summer had seen Chris Bosh as the off-season’s best free agent, all of this hoopla would have been for not and Bosh would have signed with some team, never to be heard from again. Instead, Bosh won the lottery and entered the NBA Draft at the same time Wade and LeBron did, and now he’s lucky enough to be considered the third member of a duo passing for pseudo-triumvirate. But what if Bosh stinks it up? What if he realizes that Miami isn’t Canada, and that the pressure here in the states for the Heat to win is beyond anything he ever saw in Toronto? Can Bosh live up to that? Can he honestly play 20 and 10 ball when the pressure is on, he’s on primetime television every night, and people are blaming him for the Heat’s failures? I don’t know. What I do know is that when other pseudo-max players (e.g. Rashard Lewis, Joe Johnson and Steve Francis) have been thrown into the limelight for the first time, many of them have failed to deliver. Even Ray Allen almost cost the Celtics a title back in 2008 before eventually showing up in the NBA Finals. But if Bosh fails to show up at all, the Miami Heat could falter. Granted, Wade and LeBron are good enough to win titles on their own, but the road won’t be as easy, or as guaranteed, with Bosh playing like a hot mess.

3. True anger emerges in locker room…
I know most people have dismissed this as a possibility, including myself, but it’s still a possibility if not for the fact that people are human. Are you telling me that if the Heat go on a 3 or 4-game losing streak and LeBron James feels left out of the offense that he’s not going to speak up? Is it not possible for LeBron and Wade to get angry at Bosh if he’s getting dominated inside? Or what if other teams successfully make the Three Kings of Miami have to pass the ball outside and their teammates aren’t hitting shots? Could that not mess up the chemistry? I know these are all long shots, because it’s unlikely that Miami will be in a whole lot of unfavorable game situations in the first place. But if you’re looking for a bone, I’m throwing you one.

4. Defense wins championships…
I don’t doubt that this Miami Heat team as constructed can play defense, but what if they can’t? It’s unlikely that will be the case with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade being the defensive stars that they are. However, just as the Lakers got burned at point guard position all postseason long, the Heat also have a defensive liability at point guard in Mario Chalmers. Is it not possible that Rajon Rondo takes Chalmers to school for 4 games and gets past Miami? Could Jameer Nelson be just good enough for 4 games to make the Heat have to adjust their entire defensive strategy? And then look inside. There’s no big man of substance down there—not anybody that puts fear in another big man or driving perimeter player. Once again, I grabbing for straws, but defense won’t come easy for this team, and if it never comes, that opens the door for other teams to knock Miami off.

5. The King realizes he’s a not even a prince…
For my fifth and final point, I put the emphasis square on the man formerly known as King James. LeBron had it all. Anointed as a teenager. Deemed the next big thing as the #1 pick in the NBA Draft. Given the keys to the world as the NBA’s best player. And given the keys to the city of Cleveland as its #1 citizen. But now all of that has changed. Now LeBron is hated. He’s no longer the guy everybody loves. All of a sudden, he’s the guy everybody loves to hate.

All that MVP chanting he used to get in the Garden…Over!

The endless love he got in Cleveland…Gone!

I liken LeBron’s situation to Alex Rodriguez’s arrival in New York. Here A-Rod was, joining another proven, successful contemporary by the name of Derek Jeter, in his hometown. Despite being better than Jeter though, A-Rod could never eclipse him. He never got the love of New York early on, and that eventually took a toll on his psyche and his soul, especially as his poor play continually led to early playoff exits for the Yankees.

That could very well happen to LeBron. Heat fans remember Dwyane Wade delivering in the NBA Finals, the same way Yankees fans will forever remember Derek Jeter throwing Giambi out at the plate in Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS. Wade is a hero in Miami, and if LeBron is coming to join him, he better deliver in the clutch the same way Heat fans remember Wade delivering in 2006.

But when he doesn’t, will LeBron feel the pressure? Because Heat fans won’t question Wade’s abilities, they will question LeBron. He’ll be the guy they turn on. He will be the superstar that’s lacking.

Look, everybody knew A-Rod was better than Jeter when he came to New York, but they still made Rodriguez play third base, while Jeter maintained his roll, unquestioned and undeterred. Meanwhile, Rodriguez got blamed for everything under the sun, and Jeter’s deteriorating skills at shortstop probably hurt the Yankees more than A-Rod’s “relative” troubles at the plate.

Can LeBron handle being that guy—the guy everyone blames for a loss? Unless the Heat are the equivalent of the 72-10 Bulls teams, these pressure moments are going to come, and LeBron may fail once or twice. In Cleveland, and even around the league, everyone blamed the Cavaliers failures on the talent around LeBron. Nobody will allow him that excuse anymore. So will he wilt or will he flourish?

I bet he’ll flourish, but in the oft chance he doesn’t, the Miami Heat could look a lot like the Yankees did after they signed Alex Rodriguez, going an unexpected 5 years before winning a championship that was supposed to be “a sure thing” in Year One. A-Rod’s situation in New York is the most comparable situation to the one LeBron and the Heat are facing now, and short of injury, it’s the most likely scenario to derail the Heat’s run at an NBA Title.

But will such a scenario come to fruition?

Well, as the old saying goes, that’s why they play the game.

The post "Five Ways Miami Doesn’t Win the NBA Title in 2011" was originally published at TSW.